Sheikh up the dragon.
Club Sale | It’s done!
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) was joined by comedian Ali Woods to look back at the best and worst moments of a rollercoaster season with the annual United Hour Awards.
Has Ten Hag been sacked yet? We're not sure and we hope not, but it's looking more likely as the days pass.
Who should replace him and why is it taking so long to make a decision?
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I think it's guesswork. The reporters have already gotten so much wrong it's hard to project timelines based on what they publish. David Hellier's sources described the pace of the proceedings as "glacial," so that is not too promising from our point of view. Things could change in that respect if Ratcliffe's new structure is a true solution to the Class A shareholder problem, AND if this offer is approaching the valuation and term(s) that would be acceptable to the Glazers. In such a scenario, I think the Sheikh will have to counter reasonably soon. The problem is we really have no clue whether this new structure is a true solution for the Class A holders, or if it's just Ratcliffe (unsuccessfully) trying to make chicken shite into chicken salad. If it's the latter, this will not break the apparent stalemate in these negotiations. If we had an even an inkling of what Ratcliffe is proposing to make the bid viable to the Class A holders, it would be a lot easier to guess if it's a real solution or not, but the article lacked that information.
Yeah, i think Qatar don't want to pay over the odds for the club, so they will only just beat it. Any time Jim bids, Qatar will just increase there. I think it's the reason the club isn't sold. Qatar won't pay over the odds, but will outbid any other bidder. No other bidder will bother coming in because nobody else will contend with Qatars money. Thus we are currently stuck with this game of chicken between Glazers and Qatar.
Nah, Glazers have a price they'd cash out on. Every seller does. And I'd be shocked if Jassim didn't just up his bid every time Ratcliff looked remotely close.
What are people basing that on? We haven’t seen that intention from Qatar yet in this bidding process with all of their bids valuing the club lower than what INEOS has.
I'm tired, worn out. I just want this to be over.
I was heavily pro Qatar, but I'm at the point I'm just anti Glazers now. One of you Jass or Jim, just get them out please!
I was heavily pro Qatar, but I'm at the point I'm just anti Glazers now. One of you Jass or Jim, just get them out please!
Has anything happened in the 84 years or whatever it's been?
so would it be beneficial if one of the main parties just walked away, if we want a faster conclusion?
That’s because SJ has made it clear he wants to buy 100%. INEOS only wanted a majority share so they could bid more for the Glazer’s shares only, seemingly at a higher value to the SJ bid, but with no intention of buying the remaining shares. On paper, it looks like INEOS are valuing the club higher than SJ - but that’s not the case as they don’t want to offer the same value to all shareholders. How they restructure their bid to appease the Class A shareholders is a complete mystery, unless they’ve found a few more billions to buy 100%.
It's called the Sheikhover
I think if SJ/92 Foundation come in at £6bn for the 69% of Glazers shares, this finally gets done, however I think they will only offer £5.5 billion.
INEOS are in with a chance but their bid will be far more complexed and more difficult for the shareholders to get their money. If your the Glazers you take some now and hope the club has a huge upward trajectory to get much more in 2-3 years, if your a minority class A shareholder, your regretting the day you let RatCliffe do a dodgy contract and finally read the small print which says $25 per share in 2027 not $38 which SJ offered.
The latest I’m hearing that INEOS if acceptable would pay 3/4 of the debt initially then Pay the final quarter of the debt in 2 years, which means INEOS would not have to delist the club from the NYSE until 2026 but they would look to pay all the debt by 2025. The one guy who I like to listen to who actually understand the stock market is Tom the Journalist who appears on Red Devil Studio and guess what he just said what I’ve been saying for 9 months; “The Glazers want £6 billion for their 69% shares and they’ve been offered £5.1-5.3 billion from SJ for all 113 million shares and INEOS have offered £2.6-2,7bn for 58% of the Glazers 113 million shares which is 62 million shares which are owned by All of the Glazers class b shares minus Joel and Avram) so anyone thinking the Glazers would not have a say under INEOS is living in dream land.
Joel and Avram would still have 51 million class B shares under the INEOS bid out of 163 million shares, INEOS bid is so complexed it’s just causing a mass confusion with all six siblings and it’s delaying a full sale, Ratcliffe could be hated by united fans before he’s even done the deal, imagine saying that Joel Glazer will continue to looking after football transfers.
If INEOS was to be successful, and they appeased the minority shareholders and Joel and Avram stay, then the club would look like this;
Jimmy Brexit/INEOS - 38% controlling
Joel & Avram Glazer - 31% but still class B
Minority Shares - 31% All class A shares
Let that sink in for a minute, he will still need the Glazers to make major decisions with the board it’s a mess waiting to happen !
Meanwhile every actual reliable journalist to do with United - who isn't called Tom the Journalist - has said Ratcliffe wants full control of the club, he doesn't want the Glazers making any decisions.
At this point I don't care who it is because I want the Glazers out and apparently the only two bids are from people who I don't want to run the club, but people who only want SJ tend to talk some absolute bullocks about the Ratcliffe bid fair play.
There is absolutely no way in hell he will pay all that money yet continue to have Joel Glazer in charge of transfers, come on ffs that's common sense, you're just bringing up SJ bid propaganda points of how if Ratcliffe wasn't around the Glazers would have already sold to SJ and Ratcliffe is causing a mess. The reason the deal isn't done is because the greedy parasites don't feel like either offer matches their valuation, that's why, again as reported by all reliable journalists.
Appreciate your posts and input.
Can you please help me understand the maths / logic behind the $34-36 share price you have quoted here? Is it simply based on the final amount the club is sold for? The ‘enterprise value’?
Not too familiar with these sorts of things.
Some good points here.
Quite interesting to see fatigue set it regarding Qatar. Their supporters were claiming they were somehow necessary, now they realise they are no silver bullet and are reconciling themselves to Ineos being in the game.
Can't see Ineos wanting the Glazer numpties about, making them unpopular and insisting we make Martial captain and sign Messi because.
Ineos must genuinely think they are in with a decent shout, but, all the same, nobody can financially compete with a state bid.
It'll be Qatar.
as usual you post presumptions about posters you don‘t even know and come across as extremely condescending , I haven’t realised they’re no silver bullet and frankly can’t wait until we become debt free with world class facilities as befitting a club of our size.
Would have preferred Jim if he promised to buy out the Glazers completely but any idea of them cvnts retaining even the smallest of connections possible to the club is simply abhorrent to me and completely unacceptable
This would be the nightmare everybody dreads.
You can find it upon this very thread from a number of posters. These are not presumptions. These are facts.
It is quite intriguing having 'world class facilities' as we 'are entitled to' trumps legitimate concerns about both Ineos and Qatar, though pointing this out is 'preachy' and 'condescending' or some other soothe.
Don't worry too much. I'd imagine Qatar will buy you what you want soon enough.
How it works.
Won't come to that. Ratcliffe is not an idiot and will not want the Glazers near any executive decisions.
Can't see Ineos beating a state bid anyway.
Most fans still don’t realise INEOS proposition has always been just to take control by doing a deal with the Devil itself.
If Jimmy Brexit was buying just 51 of the 69% shares or 74% of their shares then his bid of £2.5-2.7 billion would be way short of the £6 billion valuation the Glazers have on their 69% controlling B class shares.
They would be looking for £4.4bn for this, so much misreporting, so much confusion generated by all ITK who actually know very little just like me, I know very little however when multiple people like Mehmet Dalmon states a very precise figure of £7.3 billion and he was involved in the original buy out in 2005, it’s quite clear that minority shareholders are looking for £1.3-.1.4 billion and the Glazers want £5.8-6 billion.
Just by that very precise statement, why do people still think INEOS would buy 51%, Joel and Avram have 18% and Minority 31% for an initial fee of £2.7 billion?
Hopefully finally now every United fans understands the Glazers want £6 billion or as near to it as possible to relinquish control and sell all 69% of their voting class B shares.
Confirmed today. Liverpool have agreed to sell a minority stake in the club worth between £82m and £164m to global sports investment firm Dynasty Equity.
I really don't get this idea that if Qatar can't get United they will just go elsewhere, when they already have the option to go elsewhere!
The irony of course is that the thread title is now the most significant update in about three months.
This isn’t happening is it… dragging on for way to long and the greedy glazers will keep putting the price up.
No idea. Never thought it was at all likely. Qatar are gonna but 100% of the club.
The $34-36 enterprise value is what most of the inside traders have suggested it would take the Class A shareholders to agree to sell their shares.
I’ll explain the proposed process;
1. SJ/92 Foundation finally agree a deal with the Glazers to sell their 69% controlling stake, for example purposes let’s say £5.8 billion.
2. The Glazers themselves inherited all the assets but also all the liabilities of the club, because SJ wishes and has made it very clear that he wishes to delist the club and buy 100% of the club, the Glazers would have to pay the £700m debt owed to all of the original lenders of who put up the money for the LBO including Bank of America. In calculating the offer for the Glazers, Nine Two Foundation would have offered an enterprise value per class B share plus a premium for them to relinquish control, give up the deeds for the property and lucrative future merchandising and broadcasting deals so they may have offered $38 per share, there are 113 million class B shares which is equal to $4.294 billion or £3.5 billion
Therefore the breakdown of the offer might look like this ;
Purchase of 113 million shares @ 31.20 per. Share = £3.5 billion
Agreed Payment of all existing leveraged debt to buy the Club = £700m
Agreed Premium to compensate loss of commercial future revenue = £800m
Agreed premium to compensate for future brand and property development £800m
Total Agreed reimbursement for control and takeover by 92 Foundation of all contracts, deeds, assets and liabilities belonging to Manchester United PLC = £5.8 billion
Please understand this is just a completely made up set of numbers to show an example of how a contract may be finalised.
3. After due diligence, the funds are transferred and Man United PLC now has new controlling owners but they still do not own 100% of the club and can not delist the club to take it private until they buy the remaining 31% shares.
4 . The new Owners have continued to register the club in the Cayman Islands and under their law they can make a fair enterprise value within 28 days to the existing share holders of let’s say $34 per share which will represent a windfall of double to those shareholders who bought for $17 per share. Some of these shareholders will be more than happy to sell but some may not and want a similar $38 per share listed in the initial Glazers class B shares and may get settled at $36 per share.
5. The final purchase of the remaining 50 million class A shares could take 3-4 months and it’s important to remember that Glazers also own approximately 6.9 million of those 50 million shares and may agree $38 per share which would give them another $262 million or £215 million. Some shareholders will jump the gun, others will be more patient to try and get the highest yield on their investment. If we assume an average share of $35 then this means that SJ/92 foundation would have to pay another $1.75 billion or £1.43 billion giving a final cost to buy 100% of the club and delist from the NYSE of £7.2-7.3 billion.
But so many fans still argue now saying the bid of £5.1-5.2 billion. Is for 100% of the club when this is simply not true!
With this, what is it about 2025/26 that has Joel/Avram trying to hang on ? Do they expect the super league or something that is being worked on in backround to make a massive difference to the clubs value ? I dont get the advantage to them getting an extra 2 years. They havent been able to run the club properly and its losing value cause of their incompetence, what exactly are they seeing over the next 2 years ?
On the flipside, other then getting the deal done why would Sir Jim pay so much for the club and allow these morons to retain a significant level of control ? (especially as they are f**king idiots). I mean two more years of Glazeromics could destroy us. Jim is hardly gonna pump any money into the club if they will benefit from it.
This is indeed complicated, but theres a few funny things about it that dont add up.
INEOS do think they are in with a genuine shout because they are being encouraged by Joel and Avram who are telling them ;“just a little bit higher, do a staggered deal with the minority share holders, do that and let both of us still stay on the board and have voting rights which will be aligned to yours, you know we speak the same language, agree to this and I’m sure We can push it through with our other siblings!”
That’s very much the way the INEOS bid is playing out right now, they can only win if Joel and Avram stay ?
We will not know until details of the restructured proposal emerge, but yes, Ratcliffe must be getting enthused primarily by Joel and Avram but surely Ineos cannot pay billions to cede any executive control to those chumps.
This is what annoys me about that poster (and he definitely gets away with it because if I suspect he was honest about the fact he is a rival fan, he'd be gone by now).
I would be happy to forego Qatar but Ratcliffe looks very sus to me. It won't be worse than it is now but would it be much better? I am not convinced and neither are a huge part of the fanbase (let alone the Class A shareholders
).Ok if INEOS take over it’s coming out now they would look to settle the debt in two structure payment. So assume the club is £800m in actual debt(ignore amortisation transfer debt)
INEOS on buying the club would maybe make £600m next year which alleviate a lot of the pressure with interest payments, but then he would want the club to try and pay off the additional £200m in the following years 2025 and 2026. The belief is that if United could consolidate top 4/5 to guarantee CL football and qualify for the world club cup in 2025 which is offering clubs an additional £150m.
INEOs might agree to redevelop old Trafford at maybe £700-800m and push the debt on INEOS but then have a joint financing deal with another hedge fund who would then have naming rights.
Simple by 2026/27 a man united with no debt actually being a regular in the top 4/5 and wining the odd cup would still create a yearly turnover of £700-800m and the club would start making profits which are reinvested back into the club, INEOS could clean it all up and then try and sell it to the Saudis in 2030 for £10 billion but it’s a huge risk having Joel and Avram still involved in the day to day running of the club?
This post deserves some praise
Amazing, thanks for the detailed response.
Hope those Class A shareholders get a nice windfall from this mess.
It'll soon be The Hunt For Custis' October.
This page will be at 3000 pages before anything significant is announced again or even longer !
I’m pro Qatar, but don’t believe Jim is fool enough to invest billions just to have the leeches having any degree of control.
My hope is that Sir Jim reestructure his offer, and Jassim just beats it and seal the deal.
My hope is that Sir Jim reestructure his offer, and Jassim just beats it and seal the deal.
Agreed. I still favor Qatar but would be very happy to get Jim as well. F the Glazers.
With Avram as Johnny Cyclops
Whilst i do agree with anyone but the Glazers, if Jim has to get outside financing, is it any better or different to what we have now? Especially if they want a say in how things are ran? Not too sure you know.
Sounds nasty.
The Saudis are gone forever. They bought Newcastle, they aren’t coming back for Man United. That’s what those two pair of Stupid brothers, Joel and Avram, don’t understand. Qatar will simply pivot to another club, if they don’t buy Man Utd
Similar to the Saudis they aren’t coming back again. Now or never
Thanks for explaining
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