Westminster Politics

Maticmaker

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but have no confidence Labour will deliver it at all.
Unless Starmer gets a large majority a Labour government wont be able to deliver anything of note. Even with a large majority he will have to be ruthless with party discipline and it will take at least two terms to start to move the dial.

I think there is a difference between a policy not going far enough and not making any sort of difference. Nationalisation should have a positive impact on the average commuter.
Key point - how many average commuters will be voting Labour if it's going to take 5 years?
 

Sweet Square

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This is one renationalisation that even an ultra-cautious Labour had to embrace: voters like it, there is no upfront outlay, and the Conservative government has already done most of the work to get there.
Ownership aside, Labour’s plans for a separate arm’s-length body to run the railway are very much on the track laid out by the Conservatives – underlined by the endorsement of Keith Williams, who drew up essentially the same scheme for Boris Johnson and Grant Shapps.
Full renationalisation might arguably include the rolling stock companies, or roscos, to ensure that Britain owns the trains rather than simply leases them – especially given the dividends that have exceeded the “profits leaking out to private operators” cited by Labour.

But that comes with expenditure that the party could not countenance in an election campaign. Instead, Labour have made clear that the roscos are onside.

It will also allow private “open access” train services, such as Lumo or Hull Trains, to continue, illustrating again that this renationalisation remains more pragmatic than dogmatic.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...ish-railway-all-but-set-up-by-tory-government
Labour underlined that it would not extend renationalisation to the ownership of the actual trains, as urged by unions including the RMT, by publicising an endorsement by Mary Grant, the highly paid chief executive of the rolling stock leasing firm Porterbrook. She said it welcomed “the party’s commitment to leverage private capital to help deliver its long-term strategy for rolling stock”.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...lisation-within-five-years-of-coming-to-power
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Berbasbullet

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You need me to tell you that, you are either very young or very short on memory.
Took us into an illegal war
Increased taxation that still has repercussions today.
Encouraged young girls to get pregnant to get a home
Allowed immigration to soar
He made massive promises and failed to deliver on virtually all of them, and miserably so.
He started the "Woke" society we all live in today.
New Labour were basically tories wearing red ties!
Interesting to hear your thoughts, I wasn’t fishing for an argument. Genuinely curious to hear your thoughts.
 

The Boy

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Key point - how many average commuters will be voting Labour if it's going to take 5 years?
Not everything in politics should be about winning votes, also given the polls I would imagine far more commuters will be voting Labour than Tory
 

11101

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"Labour is also not planning to nationalise rail freight companies or rolling stock companies."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68889345

They have to do this to make any sort of difference.

https://www.rmt.org.uk/news/publica...t-why-its-time-to-take-control-of-uk-rolling/

https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog...-first-step-of-many-labour-will-need-to-take/
But that costs money. They can tell everybody they're renationalising something by simply letting the operator contracts expire, its free. Taking over the rolling stock means having to buy it.
 

The Boy

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But that costs money. They can tell everybody they're renationalising something by simply letting the operator contracts expire, its free. Taking over the rolling stock means having to buy it.
One step at a time, the Tory government isn't exactly leaving the country rolling in cash
 

Frosty

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Yes I can hear you Clem Fandango!
But that costs money. They can tell everybody they're renationalising something by simply letting the operator contracts expire, its free. Taking over the rolling stock means having to buy it.
Saving money in the long run.

Richard Murphy, from the link I posted:

"Second, they are not planning to renationalise the rolling stock companies that have leeched money out of the system for decades. It would, apparently, be too costly to do that, which is nonsense since if a premium is paid now that will only and inevitably reflect the fact that this will be settled anyway over time through excessive payments over remains lives of leases. I am still baffled by where Labour gets its corporate finance advice from."
 

Frosty

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Yes I can hear you Clem Fandango!
Three companies own 87% of rolling stock, effectively creating a cartel. That needs to be broken up at the very least. Otherwise all public ownership of the franchises would do is funnel more public money to the ROSCO companies.
 

DanH

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Is there any reason why new stock wouldn't be possible to produce that is owned by the state, diluting the cartel over time?
 

Paul the Wolf

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Yes, it has been run as a government body since 2014, with any debt accrued being added to the national debt.
So what exactly would be nationalised? The ROSCO's still own the rolling stock and lease them out to operating companies. Will they lease them to the government instead if the government aren't going to buy the rolling stock?
 

11101

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Saving money in the long run.

Richard Murphy, from the link I posted:

"Second, they are not planning to renationalise the rolling stock companies that have leeched money out of the system for decades. It would, apparently, be too costly to do that, which is nonsense since if a premium is paid now that will only and inevitably reflect the fact that this will be settled anyway over time through excessive payments over remains lives of leases. I am still baffled by where Labour gets its corporate finance advice from."
Money now costs more than money spread out over years. Good job they're not getting their corporate finance advice from him! I saw an estimate of £10b to buy all the existing rolling stock off the lessors.

I'd like to think any future rolling stock would be purchased by the Government as a cheaper way to achieve the same goal. Or, they could properly privatise it so there is true competition rather than the government granted monopolies we have now.
 

Frosty

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Yes I can hear you Clem Fandango!
So what exactly would be nationalised? The ROSCO's still own the rolling stock and lease them out to operating companies. Will they lease them to the government instead if the government aren't going to buy the rolling stock?
The train operating franchises would be nationalised. The government would be taking over the role of Govia, and leasing the stock from the ROSCO's in commercial deals, to then be used by the new public TOCs.
 

Frosty

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Yes I can hear you Clem Fandango!
Money now costs more than money spread out over years. Good job they're not getting their corporate finance advice from him! I saw an estimate of £10b to buy all the existing rolling stock off the lessors.

I'd like to think any future rolling stock would be purchased by the Government as a cheaper way to achieve the same goal. Or, they could properly privatise it so there is true competition rather than the government granted monopolies we have now.
We have literally just announced spending an extra £75bn on defence over the next six years: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...et-to-increase-defence-spending-to-25-by-2030.

The money spent on the rolling stock would be paid for and then some when you are not held over the barrel by a cartel.

And you cannot get true privatisation in this sphere (another fallacy of the argument for competition) against established businesses (all foreign), when you need billions in start up costs just to get a share in the market which you have no guarantee of holding on to.
 

Paul the Wolf

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The train operating franchises would be nationalised. The government would be taking over the role of Govia, and leasing the stock from the ROSCO's in commercial deals, to then be used by the new public TOCs.
Hmm. So the government are dependent on the ROSCO's and presumably have to employ all the staff currently employed by the operating companies.
As the consequences of freeports and not being in the CU or SM seem to have passed Starmer by, I'm not entirely convinced.
 

Matt Varnish

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There are mechanisms for taking services back into public ownership in a way there isn't for the other industries
Affordability is the biggest problem, then there is the issue of maintaining the quality of the rolling stock.
For example, if the Gov paid £100bn for the railways, it would be further in debt by that amount, however it would also have assets of £100bn.
The problem comes when the rolling stock needs replacing, it costs, Network Rail loses money.
Some of the rolling stock and engines on the network is over 20yrs old, it needs a lot of maintaining and replacements are due.
 

groovyalbert

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Yousaf now facing a no confidence vote, with Lib Dems supporting the Tory motion. Would assume the Greens would follow suit, and surely too big a opportunity for Labour not to.
 

Zen86

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Affordability is the biggest problem, then there is the issue of maintaining the quality of the rolling stock.
For example, if the Gov paid £100bn for the railways, it would be further in debt by that amount, however it would also have assets of £100bn.
The problem comes when the rolling stock needs replacing, it costs, Network Rail loses money.
Some of the rolling stock and engines on the network is over 20yrs old, it needs a lot of maintaining and replacements are due.
Don’t taxpayers basically pay for the infrastructure anyway? My understanding was the private sector mostly just operates the services and takes a profit, with minimal responsibility for the actual infrastructure.
 

horsechoker

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The only way the boats will stop is if they open legal routes. Get a sensible political party going with "Open legal routes" on the podium.
That's too sensible

One of their tory donating mates who owns a construction firm will promise to build a wall, he'll get given the money and it will go mysteriously missing .
 

The Boy

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Don’t taxpayers basically pay for the infrastructure anyway? My understanding was the private sector mostly just operates the services and takes a profit, with minimal responsibility for the actual infrastructure.
Tax payers pay for infrastructure, tracks, tunnels, stations, bridges etc because Network rail which owns it was taken back under the control of the Department of transport about ten years ago when it effectively went bust, so tax payers are responsible for any debts and any profits are invested back into the network, so your post is pretty much spot on!
 

Smores

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Unless Starmer gets a large majority a Labour government wont be able to deliver anything of note. Even with a large majority he will have to be ruthless with party discipline and it will take at least two terms to start to move the dial.



Key point - how many average commuters will be voting Labour if it's going to take 5 years?
Why do you constantly bang on about a large majority? Outside of really contentious policy like Brexit and culture war nonsense it's very rare for a government not to get its own motions backed even with a small majority.

It feels like a canned line we were given as canvassers.
 

DanH

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Look at the way defence contracts are awarded and the money wasted there.
No argument from me that procurement needs to be massively improved. That will be one of the challenges that takes time to resolve. I don't believe that public procurement is inherently terrible though. I wouldn't pretend to know the ins and outs of the rolling stock contracts or the feasibility of creating new publically owned stock.
 

Jippy

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So I used to run a retail business, 20 stores and about 150 staff, so I can talk with some personal experience of the change over the last 2 years really. It was employee owned, so the staff had some skin in the game for preventing shoplifting and in all cases were excellent in managing it. The core factor is a drop off in police activity to actually doing something about shoplifting and actually coming out to investigate and an increase in abuse (both verbal and physical) of store staff, meaning challenging any one shoplifting isn't recommended. It's a vicious cycle because the shoplifters know full well that they won't get chased as it's deemed as low level crime, and they can do anything to store staff and know that little action will be taken. The more this happens, then unfortunately the more brazen it becomes. On one site we had a Tesco Express adjacent to us (run down part of the Wirral) and you just saw people walking in and taking beer off the shelf and just walking straight out, not even running as they know no one is even going to stop them.

The financials of between 0.3-0.5% of revenue as shrinkage (retail term for stock loss) from those articles is pretty accurate, but there was definitely increases in shoplifting since 2022. From my own experience and anecdotal feedback is that most shoplifting that we saw was professional shoplifters and have been doing it for some time, as opposed to some recent demand in new criminals coming to the fore.

The main bug for retailers though is definitely the police not doing anything about it or at the minimum coming out to take information. The amount they pay in business rates is significant and for the police to do very little is what's changed here. Any policy that begins to address can only be a good thing, especially for the people on the shop floor.
This data confirms the spike in shoplifting, but doesn't indicate how many of the cases the police actually responded to. It's crazy that the police are not giving a shit about this stuff- it all contributes to the place being a shithole.

Shoplifting hits highest level in at least 20 years
A total of 430,104 offences were recorded in England and Wales last year, up 37 per cent on the 315,040 in the previous 12 months.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shoplifting-hits-highest-level-in-at-least-20-years-pvspgzbj3
 

11101

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We have literally just announced spending an extra £75bn on defence over the next six years: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...et-to-increase-defence-spending-to-25-by-2030.

The money spent on the rolling stock would be paid for and then some when you are not held over the barrel by a cartel.

And you cannot get true privatisation in this sphere (another fallacy of the argument for competition) against established businesses (all foreign), when you need billions in start up costs just to get a share in the market which you have no guarantee of holding on to.
£10b is still £10b. What they spend on other stuff isn't really relevant. It's a lot of money that would need to be added to the debt pile that any incoming government needs to get control of. £12b (eg) spread over years is a lot more palatable than £10b upfront.
 

Pexbo

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Funnily enough I was walking behind a couple of women who were talking about this the other day and one of them said “see they don’t have any drinking problems in France because they have lots of wine with every meal”.

Think they heard me laugh.
 

pacifictheme

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Disagree. People traditionally become more conservative because they become home owners, have children, build savings etc etc and it’s about protecting what they have. The Tories have gone a long way to fecking up that natural progression and more and more people in their 30s, 40s and beyond will have no natural inclination to become more conservative because they have no wealth to protect.

I’m nearing my 40s, a homeowner with children and savings and I have absolutely zero inclination to move to the right because I can see how damaging the lack of socialism has been to the foundations of this country. It’s about a few getting rich and the rest getting nothing. feck that and feck you.
We have literally just announced spending an extra £75bn on defence over the next six years: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...et-to-increase-defence-spending-to-25-by-2030.

The money spent on the rolling stock would be paid for and then some when you are not held over the barrel by a cartel.

And you cannot get true privatisation in this sphere (another fallacy of the argument for competition) against established businesses (all foreign), when you need billions in start up costs just to get a share in the market which you have no guarantee of holding on to.

A policy that will last for the length of the next governments stay in power. Hm.
 

The Boy

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It's crazy that the police are not giving a shit about this stuff- it all contributes to the place being a shithole.
It's probably a knock on effect from the massive cuts dealt to policing between 2010 and 2020, even with the police uplift, the National Police Chief Council says they're still facing real terms cuts of 3.2 billion and many of the new police officers are doing the job of police staff made redundant over a ten year period rather than actual policing on the streets.

The Tories have so much to answer for.
 

Sweet Square

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Funnily enough I was walking behind a couple of women who were talking about this the other day and one of them said “see they don’t have any drinking problems in France because they have lots of wine with every meal”.

Think they heard me laugh.
:lol:

Typical french parenting

 

DanH

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It's probably a knock on effect from the massive cuts dealt to policing between 2010 and 2020, even with the police uplift, the National Police Chief Council says they're still facing real terms cuts of 3.2 billion and many of the new police officers are doing the job of police staff made redundant over a ten year period rather than actual policing on the streets.

The Tories have so much to answer for.
Plus 12 officers being devoted to checking each and every Council Tax and Capital Gains issue of course.
 

Maticmaker

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Why do you constantly bang on about a large majority? Outside of really contentious policy like Brexit and culture war nonsense it's very rare for a government not to get its own motions backed even with a small majority.

It feels like a canned line we were given as canvassers.
I would suggest that the larger the majority the more quickly a Labour government can move to 'moving the dial' significantly for the majority of people. I suspect a smaller seat majority will mean more disruption internally for the Labour government with individuals wanting their 'pound of flesh' to support certain issues they might otherwise not have agreed with. That's internally, externally lots of 'bear-traps' are set for those with small majorities, not to mention other mishaps that can occur.

Its not that legislation won't get passed, but it will take longer and cause more problems with only a small majority to rely on and Starmer will need a strict timetable to present to the nation especially if he seeks to go for a second (or even third) term. This timetable will be where his enemies come for him, slow that down and promises in the future, start to look further away every day.

No, its a large majority if Labour requires or really wants to develop and sustain a vibrant welfare state into the future.