Good for Chelsea!...You a Chelsea man?
Álvaro Morata | Performances
- Thread starter Brwned
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik @Rood and Imran @Annihilate Now! start with the good news by celebrating Manchester United Women's emphatic FA Cup win over Spurs at Wembley and the future of manager Marc Skinner.
Then it's the bad news and the ever worsening form of our Men with losses to Arsenal and Palace.
Finally the main debate - ETH Out now or keep him until the end of the season - if not longer. Are you Team Nik or Team Imran?
Name some examples ? Solskjaer and who else ?
Hernandez, Giroud...
I don't know if such people even exist here. We all want Lukaku to do well here, but at the same time, it is possible to occasionally take the tribal rose tinted specs off and evaluate non-united players on a football forum.
Don't remember the last time I seen a deliberate back header assist like that.
He did look good today, reminded me a bit of a young Torres. But it is a bit too much to try to judge a player on less than 45 minutes of EPL football, or based on his mpg stats in a very strong Madrid team. He does show good movement, but we will have to see if he is clinical.
There is. There's lots of evidence. Unless you're now changing the argument from goals to "quality". Previously we were talking about why making assumptions about Morata's goal return by extrapolating his return as bit-part player last year is flawed on a number of counts.
Just look at Giroud's record over the last 4 years, when he started more than 25 league games vs. when he started less.
>25 league games
13/14 - a goal every 199 mins
15/16 - a goal every 152 mins
<25 league games
14/15 - a goal every 133 mins
16/17 - a goal every 100 mins
Or just look at Hernández's record since he moved to Europe.
- He scored 31 league goals in 4,120 mins between 11/12 - 14/15 as a supersub, never playing any more than 1500 mins (out of a possible c. 3,500 mins) per season. So he had a record of a goal every 133 minutes.
- In the last two seasons, he's scored 28 league goals in 3,989 mins, playing 1,800 and 2,200 mins from a possible 3,100. So his record dropped to a goal every 142 minutes.
You can analyse the results for any number of players and come to the same conclusion. It completely refutes the notion that if you play more games, you'll score more goals at the same rate. Your scoring rate as a bit-part player cannot reasonably be extrapolated to your scoring rate as a key player.
The theory underpinning it is that players who play bit-part roles will typically play against weaker teams when they start and play against tired defences when they don't. Both cases are easier situations to score in. Then there's the argument that you'll be fresher, hungrier etc. There's every reason to expect Morata to score more goals but to expect him to score at the same rate...I don't see where the evidence for that is.
Certainly looked better than I was expecting, but it was such a unique setting to come into.
A Burnley team working beyond their usual level, he comes on fresh at a time it's all massively one way traffic, even with a numbers deficit.
Let's see how it goes next weekend.
Thing is, in each of the examples of the usual supersub suspects, it was the manager's decision to employ them more as subs than starters. Chicharito had a good season two years ago at Leverkusen.
Each of these players are only perceived as super subs because they haven't been given protracted playing time as consistent starters. Look at Hernandez's 2nd year at Leverkusen and look at Giroud in his final year in France. Plenty of goals from both of them. At the end of the day, its a tactical choice made by the manager, not an issue of player performance. BTW, Morata did get a number of starts last year so I'm not sure he can be lumped into these traditional supersub stereotypes.
You haven't looked at the numbers, have you?
When Giroud was a starter for Arsenal - in 13/14 and in 15/16 - he scored a goal every 152 mins and every 199 mins, respectively. When he played a lesser role, in 14/15 and 16/17, he scored a goal every 133 mins and every 100 mins. In other words he scored at a higher rate when he started less games. Consistently.
What does that tell you?
We would have to look at the specific circumstances of each game, whether there were injuries/suspensions among the supporting cast of attackers at the time, and whether Arsenal were generally playing poorly at the time.
Or you could just, you know, accept that these stats support a really obvious point? Bit-part strikers are more likely to score at a better rate than those who start every game. For reasons already explained to you.
There's no evidence of this. A player doesn't suddenly become better or worse at football because their manager opts to use them as a starter or bring them on as a sub. Its probably moreso a perceptual illusion based on the Solskjaer experience.
You must be joking. For someone presenting an argument with a "high probability of being right", you're not doing much to justify it.
No one actually said so, no? Moreso the case that stats like mpg may be influenced by the circumstances a player is used by his manager. Playing a full 90 is different to running against a tired defense, that much is obvious.
Clearly a very good player. I think he will suit Chelsea well and will get even better when Hazard and Pedro are fit.
Do you think quality footballers lose their ability to play football based on whether they are subbed on or not ?
Agreed. Although let me be clear, i desperately want him to fail in the most spectacular fashion imaginable.
Yeah, same goes for any player any other team in the league signs. Would rather be proven 'wrong' on an internet forum than see our rivals players light up the league.
I don't think you understand the point being made.
A player scoring at a lower goalscoring rate does not mean he becomes a worse player. It means his contribution is about more than simply goals, or points on the board - which I imagine is an unusual concept in high-scoring American sports - and that there are certain circumstances where it's easier to score in, which bit part players play a higher proportion of their games in.
The same is true of Morata last season. There's every reason to believe that he'll score a lot of goals this year, but there's lots of evidence to suggest he'll score at a lower rate. He'll play in less advantageous circumstances this year if he plays as a key player, so he can be playing at exactly the same level but benefit less from it, in pure goalscoring terms, and thus score at a lower rate.
If he scores at the same rate it will actually mean he's stepped up a level because he's dealt with more adverse conditions. I'm not saying he won't. I think he may well step up a level, just not to the degree you think. I'm just refuting the notion that you can extrapolate his goals per game figures from that role to this new role. You can't. The evidence is pretty straightforward.
He's a very good player. He'll get goals and play well. There's other issues to tackle for Chelsea, but he'll do fine personally.
I get the hypothesis of playing against lesser sides. FWIW, I don't expect Morata to replicate his numbers from last year as I'd imagine the defending in England is a bit better and if he was to get a goal every 88 minutes as he did in Spain, then he would wind up with 50, which obviously won't happen. If he's Chelsea's main striker, which he will be, then 50 appearances in all comps is very possible and 35 goals pretty realistic. Very similar circumstances to RvN's first year with us minus the fact that Morata isn't recovering from a major knee injury.
Morata is class. Really cannot understand why so many don't seem to rate him.
I think that's the last time he starts as a sub. not sure why Conte started Batshuayi ahead of him.
Because of his wiki stats.
Conte didn't think he match fit, playing limited minutes in preseason. Also Batshuayi looked great in preseason, bar the no show vs Arsenal last weekend.
Makes me think of Solkjaer.
He's class, think they'll play some really good football once the injuries are back, will be good to have more quality in the league.
Can't wait to see him, Pedro and Hazard connecting.
I didn't expect him to start off so well being a new league and all. Let's see how he does against Spurs where he'll most likely start. By the way, who'll partner Kante now that Fabregas is suspended?
Luiz or Scott maybe?
This is exactly it. To each to their own really.Agreed, but i guess some people would rather be right about a rival player than how it affects the club they support.
Internetz is serious business
I was one of those posters who was hell bent on not wanting Morata and preferred Lukaku and I am extremely happy he joined us, in my opinion he was the best striker we could have possibly got this summer. I went as far as saying that I would prefer Vardy over Morata. But if Lukaku did end up joining Chelsea, I would blatantly wish that he never scores another goal while being completely healthy and playing every game for them while wishing Morata to win the golden boot and hype up every little thing he did.
I have no problem with looking a bit foolish and clearly biased towards my club.
Missed an absolute sitter and doesn't look like being able to impose himself at all, at least in this game (against Spurs).
Yeah, Spurs are decent at the back, but as I said, he doesn't even look like being able to impose himself.
Maybe he'll prove me wrong in the 2nd half, but watching him for 90 minutes, he just looks a little...timid, for want of a better word.
Yeah, Spurs are decent at the back, but as I said, he doesn't even look like being able to impose himself.
Maybe he'll prove me wrong in the 2nd half, but watching him for 90 minutes, he just looks a little...timid, for want of a better word.
That missed header was wonderful.
More of that please Alvaro.
More of that please Alvaro.
It looks like he isnt used to the pace of the game quite yet. Feels like he looks a bit rushed.
He's got no edge, and Chelsea look so blunt with him up top.
Batshuayi looks more dangerous and makes more potent movements.
Batshuayi looks more dangerous and makes more potent movements.
Indeed
And scores goals in opposite end.
