Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[Revan]

Can someone quickly sum up what this means to someone who has literally no idea? I know as much as someone who'd just fell onto this planet.

Pounds will fall for around 15-20%, a million jobs will be lost and hundred billions of pounds will be lost too.

On return, you won't have to deal with those fecking immigrants anymore. And won't need to give EU 12b pounds per year (with more than half of it being returned). But if you want to make deals with EU, then you will have to pay them around 8b (using Norway/Switzerland examples) and get nothing in return. And of course, any trade deal with EU enforces the freedom of movement.

Scotland and probably N.Ireland will push for an independence referendum, Spain will want Gibraltar in any trade deal between UK and EU. Most big companies will reallocate their HQs to Frankfurt/Dublin and in a few years, Frankfurt stockexchange will dwarf London's stockexchange.

On long term, I will predict UK to run to EU will tail under its legs, and except all conditions including euro and Schenghen. Of course, by that stage it will be just England (cause Scotland and probably N.Ireland would have gone indie), and its economy would be more comparable with Italy rather than being higher than France's.

It will also have some effect in EU with the euro going down. And of course, a recession of the fifth (or maybe is now already sixth considering the fall of pound) biggest economy in the world will have global consequences and can cause a small global recession.

 

[JosDeVos]

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Speechless. To even dare admit to that ...

 

[FC Ronaldo]

How will Brexit affect your finances?
Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36537906

Houses

• The Treasury has said house prices could be hit by between 10% and 18% over the next two years, compared to where they otherwise would have been. This would be good news for first-time buyers, but not so great for existing homeowners.
  
• The National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) believes house prices in London could see the biggest change, losing up to £7,500 on average over the next three years, compared to where they otherwise would have been. Elsewhere, it said values could fall by £2,300. But since it expects prices to continue rising anyway, this means a slower rate of increase, rather than a fall in real values (see table below).
  
• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that Brexit could cause a sharp drop in house prices. This was on the expectation that the cost of mortgages would rise.

Wages

• Several experts have predicted that the economic shock of leaving the EU would cause unemployment to rise in the UK. That would reduce the pressure for wage growth. The Treasury estimated that wages will be between 2.8% and 4% lower at the point of maximum impact, with a typical worker at least £780 a year worse off.

Benefit Payments

• A report by the National Institute of Social and Economic Research (Niesr) said some families could lose as much as £2,771 a year.

Tax

• A week before the referendum, George Osborne warned that a vote to leave the EU might result in tax increases too. He spoke about a 2p rise on the basic tax rate - currently 20p in the pound - and a 3p rise in the higher rate - currently 40p. He also said Inheritance Tax (IHT) might rise by 5p, from its current 40p.

 

[UweBein]

Didn't Farage work in EU parliament? It's a bit of irony isn't it?

And he was constantly shitting on EU when we were negotiating our way to the EU and was warning us it's a bad thing and it's better to stay out.

that's one of the many positives about the brexit: sooner or later farage will lose his seat in the EU parliament.

 

[Ban]

Bristol 63%, my home city, proud of that.

Just saw, Birmingham was 51-49 to leave, Liverpool voted to remain.

 

[Green_Red]

Thing is, these bailouts aren't an EU problem. That is just a symptom and key element of state capitalism which is not something that will go away. Chomsky is right in this one at least: in the current capitalist systems, risks and negative consequences are socialised while profits are privatised.

This is a problem with the EU as well. But simply calling it quits and disbanding it won't solve the problem, only exacerbate it.

Yea but leaving the EU does not mean that you simply cut all ties and never speak to one another again. Countries will still trade regardless of whether they are part of a common goe political organisation, same as they have done for hundreds of years. Couldnt agree more with Chomsky's statement, but it doesn't mean that because it is so it should be.

 

[Honest John]

Maybe I'm wrong but my undestanding was that all 27 countries had agreed to what he wanted. The EU is constantly negotiating with each other...it's how they come to decisions. Anyway, too late for all that. I just hope the Leave lot actually have a plan and aren't sat around their breakfast tables saying "Oh shit! Now what the hell do we do?"

Dead right Marching they are absolutely fecking clueless. It shows in every one of their faces. None of them were that good as MP's anyway. Now we are going to have bunch of second-raters running the show.

Yesterday every single indicator of economic prosperity was the best I ever remember it being - interest rates, inflation, unemployment, growth. Now it will all go to rat shit and they reckon this bunch of wasters can steer us through all that. Looking at their faces, I think it is suddenly dawning on them what a Biblical task lies ahead.

Say what you will about Cameron he got this country into the best shape it had been for years. and that was starting from a very low base in 2008/9.

Not perfect but better than I can remember in 40 years of working.

 

[Ban]

that's one of the many positives about the brexit: sooner or later farage will lose his seat in the EU parliament.

Big bad EU, but it was good enough to pay his nice salary.

 

[UweBein]

Pounds will fall for around 15-20%, a million jobs will be lost and hundred billions of pounds will be lost too.

On return, you won't have to deal with those fecking immigrants anymore. And won't need to give EU 12b pounds per year (with more than half of it being returned). But if you want to make deals with EU, then you will have to pay them around 8b (using Norway/Switzerland examples) and get nothing in return. And of course, any trade deal with EU enforces the freedom of movement.

Scotland and probably N.Ireland will push for an independence referendum, Spain will want Gibraltar in any trade deal between UK and EU. Most big companies will reallocate their HQs to Frankfurt/Dublin and in a few years, Frankfurt stockexchange will dwarf London's stockexchange.

On long term, I will predict UK to run to EU will tail under its legs, and except all conditions including euro and Schenghen. Of course, by that stage it will be just England (cause Scotland and probably N.Ireland would have gone indie), and its economy would be more comparable with Italy rather than being higher than France's.

It will also have some effect in EU with the euro going down. And of course, a recession of the fifth (or maybe is now already sixth considering the fall of pound) biggest economy in the world will have global consequences and can cause a small global recession.

that's kind of the worst case scenario for the UK and as such pretty unlikely to happen.

 

[Massive Spanner]

Well, we wouldnt have had to do anything because the very essense of capitalism is profit and loss. The bank would have lost, the billionaires who owned shares would have lost some of their money, as is what would be expected in a capitalist system. We can only guess as to what effect it might have had on the Irish economy and Irish jobs.

Now you are short sighted and daft because you equate the success of Irelands economy with being part of Europe. Tell me, what percentage of Irish exports go to European countries? Our biggest trading partners now, Britain and the US are not in Europe. We have lost more than we have gained. But you are obviously placated by shiny european union signs on the sides of roads.

Now you're speaking like a true 'leave' member. We can only guess? Experts repeatedly conducted detailed studies that largely confirmed that without the bailout there would be severe long-term financial repercussions to our country. Also in case you hadn't realised, only five years after receiving the bailout after arguably the worst recession in our history, we're now the fastest growing economy in the EU again.

The second bolded part, um, you realise that completely contradicts itself, right? We've been able to trade so easily with the UK due to the fact that we were both IN the EU. Now that it's not we're going to have a severe short-term downfall and possibly long-term unless they agree a FTA. Exports to the US will also likely improve hugely if the TPP comes into effect.

 

[Adisa]

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I am convinced a lot of Leave voters don't realise what they have done.

 

[Green_Red]

That's what a bailout is. So yes, we absolutely did get a Bailout.

Ask yourself - what exactly would we have done without that loan?

The idea that the EU hasn't been a great thing for Ireland over the last few decades is short-sighted and daft, quite frankly. And we're now going to see a large loss of GDP due to Britain leaving it. Now imagine if we no longer had free-trade with every other EU country, access to their workforce, and most importantly, large multi-national companies being able to use Dublin as their international headquarters, which would never have happened if we weren't in the EU.

Sorry, I always thought that it was the other way around. How many highly skilled workers educated at the expense of the Irish taxpayer have emigrated from Ireland in the last decade?

 

[Ban]

But it's an advisory referendum, right?
I mean maybe in a few weeks lots of Leave voters will realize what have they done.

 

[Adisa]

£500bn wiped off the market in three hours.
Guess what ladies and gentlemen, it's you and I that will pay.

 

[settembrini]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36615879

Obviously this result will encourage the growing populist movements in other EU countries. The sensible thing would be wait and see how the UK fairs but it's only a matter of time before another major country is forced into a referendum.

 

[Green_Red]

Now you're speaking like a true 'leave' member. We can only guess? Experts repeatedly conducted detailed studies that largely confirmed that without the bailout there would be severe long-term financial repercussions to our country. Also in case you hadn't realised, only five years after receiving the bailout after arguably the worst recession in our history, we're now the fastest growing economy in the EU again.

The second bolded part, um, you realise that completely contradicts itself, right? We've been able to trade so easily with the UK due to the fact that we were both IN the EU. Now that it's not we're going to have a severe short-term downfall and possibly long-term unless they agree a FTA. Exports to the US will also likely improve hugely if the TPP comes into effect.

Ok, where are they? I want to read at least 3 published studies that detail this. And, please god let them be the experts that seen the GFC coming...

FTA? Financial Trade Agreement? In 2012 when Queen Elizabeth II was in Ireland one was formalised... The first one in the history of both states. Guess what, we traded for almost a whole century without one.

 

[Revan]

that's kind of the worst case scenario for the UK and as such pretty unlikely to happen.

I think all points are mentioned there are pretty realistic. Pound falling and companies reallocating is pretty much dead cert. Which will almost surely make the unemployment higher and the wages lower.

EU will be a tough negotiator and won't give to UK better deals than they gave to Norway and Switzerland (bar the Schenghen part). There are already voices on Scotland about a new referendum, and Spain has already mentioned Gibraltar.

The worst case scenario is a global recession and a domino-effect in EU with other countries leaving.

 

[Sarni]

Come to Hungary and I'll take you to a Jobbik convention. Then we can rate and compare our idiots! Such fun.

They (Korwin people) are often citing Hungary as their brothers and are happy about huge right win liberals there - I can only imagine what cretins you hide there mate when Korwinists have been pointing at them as their example.

 

[Barca84]

No It is done. We are leaving the EU.

Over 65s voted overwhelming in favour of leaving the EU while the younger generation, who will live with the consequences, voted stronger to remain but it wasn't enough.

A bit more nuanced than that. The crossover age is 43 under which most are remain whilst above most are leave. there's also some evidence that those who remember WW2 were more likely to favour remain.

Someone who is 65 and in the UK can reasonably expect to live for another 15+ years so this idea that they shouldn't be voting without one eye on their impending death is pretty unjustified.

 

[Massive Spanner]

Sorry, I always thought that it was the other way around. How many highly skilled workers educated at the expense of the Irish taxpayer have emigrated from Ireland in the last decade?

I'd say not a lot compared to how many have come in to Ireland. And emigration has largely been to Australia, Canada, and the UK as opposed to mainland Europe. Also generally people only left because of a lack of jobs due to the recession, which is only natural. Now they're coming back and emigration has plummeted. What exactly would we have done with these 'skilled workers' when there were no jobs here for them? Social welfare?

And a big part of the reason that many very large international companies have located the international headquarters here is because we have English as our native language and access to skilled workers from the rest of the EU.

 

[Castia]

I was stupid and didn't vote, to be honest I was sure we would stay so my vote 'didnt matter'. Last time I ever make that mistake, this isn't good for anybody and seeing them already backtracking on the NHS money minutes after the vote was in is fecking sickening, these people seriously need locking up people voted on the back of these claims which have turned out to be lies.

I'm a little scared honestly, feck knows what will happen now.

 

[Ban]

When I see the comments on the internet and what kind of people here are greeting the decision with 'Great job GB', 'Well done', 'When's our referendum' and similar I know it's bad.

 

[Green_Red]

A

I'd say not a lot compared to how many have come in to Ireland. And emigration has largely been to Australia, Canada, and the UK as opposed to mainland Europe. Also generally people only left because of a lack of jobs due to the recession, which is only natural. Now they're coming back and emigration has plummeted. What exactly would we have done with these 'skilled workers' when there were no jobs here for them? Social welfare?

And a big part of the reason that many very large international companies have located the international headquarters here is because we have English as our native language and access to skilled workers from the rest of the EU.

Are you going to try and claim that more people with third level education went to Ireland in the last decade than left? Honestly? hahaha, what an absolutely crazy fecking statement to make.

Emigration has plummeted because there are no people left to emigrate. I am one of them and I can tell you first hand, none of the expat Irish people I associate will ever go back. I live in a country on the other side of the world but can buy a packet of Tayto and a box of Lyons tea, Brennans batch bread and Clonakilty black pudding in my local corner shop because there are so many Irish people here. First hand experience. Good man yourself.

 

[moses]

£500bn wiped off the market in three hours.
Guess what ladies and gentlemen, it's you and I that will pay.

Surely now the UK doesn't have to subsidise Europe and pay welfare to foreigners ye can well afford it.

 

[Cee90]

I am convinced a lot of Leave voters don't realise what they have done.

You're right.

 

[moses]

I think all points are mentioned there are pretty realistic. Pound falling and companies reallocating is pretty much dead cert. Which will almost surely make the unemployment higher and the wages lower.

EU will be a tough negotiator and won't give to UK better deals than they gave to Norway and Switzerland (bar the Schenghen part). There are already voices on Scotland about a new referendum, and Spain has already mentioned Gibraltar.

The worst case scenario is a global recession and a domino-effect in EU with other countries leaving.

The EU can't be seen to grease the wheels of Brexit if they have any hope of keeping the Union.

 

[Massive Spanner]

Ok, where are they? I want to read at least 3 published studies that detail this. And, please god let them be the experts that seen the GFC coming...

FTA? Financial Trade Agreement? In 2012 when Queen Elizabeth II was in Ireland one was formalised... The first one in the history of both states. Guess what, we traded for almost a whole century without one.

I'm not trawling through google to try and find seven year old articles.

I'm not sure what your second paragraph is supposed to mean? We've been able to trade freely with the UK for the last 30 years before we're both in the EU. if you're implying that we'll be able to implement a FTA with them ourselves then you're wrong.

 

[Kentonio]

I'd say not a lot compared to how many have come in to Ireland. And emigration has largely been to Australia, Canada, and the UK as opposed to mainland Europe.

Funny, you can hardly turn around in Lyon without tripping over an Irishman. We have about a dozen Irish bars too.

 

[simon_xazza]

I was stupid and didn't vote, to be honest I was sure we would stay so my vote 'didnt matter'. Last time I ever make that mistake, this isn't good for anybody and seeing them already backtracking on the NHS money minutes after the vote was in is fecking sickening, these people seriously need locking up people voted on the back of these claims which have turned out to be lies.

I'm a little scared honestly, feck knows what will happen now.

My sister did the same. I wonder how many people are in your position. Enough to swing it back to remain ? I am pretty sure everyone who supported a brexit voted.

 

[Green_Red]

I'm not trawling through google to try and find seven year old articles.

I'm not sure what your second paragraph is supposed to mean? We've been able to trade freely with the UK for the last 30 years before we're both in the EU. if you're implying that we'll be able to implement a FTA with them ourselves then you're wrong.

No you're not trawling through google because they dont exist and you've never read them!!!

 

[moses]

This yet again shows the flaws of modern democracy. I think while sections of our electorates are increasingly clever there is far too much scope for sensationalism and misinformation. Same here in Ireland, I get the feeling people are agenda voting instead of actually measuring the issue at hand and the consequences of their vote.

 

[Manny]

Yesterday every single indicator of economic prosperity was the best I ever remember it being - interest rates, inflation, unemployment, growth. Now it will all go to rat shit and they reckon this bunch of wasters can steer us through all that. Looking at their faces, I think it is suddenly dawning on them what a Biblical task lies ahead.

I agree. I was watching the news and markets yesterday and it looked like we'd get a mini boom for the rest of the year, had the remain vote won.

For a lot of companies, this referendum would have been acting as anchor, holding back progress.

 

[sun_tzu]

The EU can't be seen to grease the wheels of Brexit if they have any hope of keeping the Union.

especially with upcoming elections in France and Germany

 

[Rams]

Frankie Boyle: an uncertain time ahead for our high street banks, as all our armed robbers return back from Spain

 

[evra]

Best case scenario right now is that once this all settles down, the seriousness of the situation is highlighted and the true colour of the leave campaign is brought to light and after further EU negotiations Britain gets a better deal and a second referendum sees us remain.

#Wishfulthinking

I think if the EU backed down on the free movement of people, the British public would vote to remain in the EU. It's as simple as that.

 

[Gol123]

I'm in.

You haven't heard the best bit yet.

After years of fighting amongst themselves, two opposing factions rise to dominance, each lead by a single war chieftan.

The first chieftain is a man born of the results of generations of inbreeding with giant, mammoth sized pigs. He will argue that a great Wall made of scrap metal should be built around the circumference of the Earth. This wall will stop the aliens from invading the world and stealing the precious oil that he needs to power his 500 tonne monster truck.

The other leader is a common grass snake, risen to power as a symbol of how all creatures are equal regardless of their ability to drive giant trucks. They will argue for equality and order that any intolerance is sentenced to crucifixion or disemboweling ritual, where small rats are sent up the offenders anus and slowly eat their insides.

 

[Honest John]

I am convinced a lot of Leave voters don't realise what they have done.

The don't. Many are either fishermen, farmers or the shirtless little Englanders the you see pissed up and singing football songs when you're on holiday.

Corbyn made no effort whatsoever to canvas the support of the people that he is supposed to represent especially in the labour heartlands where this was lost.

He is a total and utter cnut because he put scoring one over the Tories above the good of the nation. Absolute disgrace.

 

[adexkola]

You know you're fecked when Trump agrees with your decision.

Massive shame too if London loses it's status as a premium financial center, as a result of this. I've always wanted to do a stint there for a few years.

 

[Pexbo]

How will Brexit affect your finances?
Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36537906

Houses

• The Treasury has said house prices could be hit by between 10% and 18% over the next two years, compared to where they otherwise would have been. This would be good news for first-time buyers, but not so great for existing homeowners.

Only it won't be great for first time buyers because the whole reason the house market will suffer is because the first time buyers will be struggling to get a mortgage which will have a knock on effect up the ladder.

What this will be good for is the cash rich who once again will have been waiting for a slump so they can buy low and sell high years down the line.

 

[Massive Spanner]

A


Are you going to try and claim that more people with third level education went to Ireland in the last decade than left? Honestly? hahaha, what an absolutely crazy fecking statement to make.

I don't need to claim it, it's a fact.

in -http://www.cso.ie/multiquicktables/quickTables.aspx?id=pea18_1 - 860k
out - http://www.cso.ie/multiquicktables/quickTables.aspx?id=pea18_2 - 651k

Maybe you should actually use facts when trying to prove a point, unlike those leave twats from the Brexit side.