Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .

SquishyMcSquish

New Member
Joined
Jul 4, 2018
Messages
8,198
Supports
Tottenham
not really - she didn't get a majority (like cameron first time)
True, but she did at least manage to scrape together a majority.

That said, there's little positive that can be said about campaign. Pretty much every she/her team made was a total disaster.
 

Paul the Wolf

Full Member
Joined
Apr 17, 2014
Messages
17,898
Location
France - can't win anything with Swedish turnips
She'd be a terrible poker player, she doesn't need to say anything, just look at her face.

Her main problem now is that she thinks that a minor tweak on the wording is going to solve the problems in parliament.
They are going to vote any deal down.

Her best bet is what she's doing and that is to delay the vote as long as possible.
 

Smores

Full Member
Joined
May 18, 2011
Messages
25,599
From Peston, ouch

Here is the measure of Theresa May’s failure last night - according to an observer of her request to EU leaders for 'assurances' that UK membership of the EU backstop would be finite and of short duration.

"They were ready to help. They assumed a process of officials agreeing a text over coming week would start today, to give her the necessary words that would persuade Tory and DUP critics of her deal to ultimately support it.

"But it was during the course of questioning her that they concluded such a process - such an extension of talks - would be a total waste of time. Why?

"Well according to one observer of the conversation between May and the EU27 leaders, 'she could not say what would actually deliver a majority in parliament for her'.

"Why on earth could and should they start talks in the absence of knowing what May actually wants?"
 

Smores

Full Member
Joined
May 18, 2011
Messages
25,599
in fairness shes actually right - I dont think anybody can pick a deal that would get a majority in parliament
but yeah cant blame the Eu for not wanting to negotiate on that basis
She should know what she's there to get at least. If i went in front of our board of directors with so little knowledge of what i need to solve a project I'd be sacked for incompetence.

As i said yesterday she was only there to try and spin a lie there was never any goal beyond that.
 

Buster15

Go on Didier
Joined
Aug 28, 2018
Messages
13,548
Location
Bristol
Supports
Bristol Rovers
She'd be a terrible poker player, she doesn't need to say anything, just look at her face.

Her main problem now is that she thinks that a minor tweak on the wording is going to solve the problems in parliament.
They are going to vote any deal down.

Her best bet is what she's doing and that is to delay the vote as long as possible.
I am still amazed that she has not even tried to use the 39bn divorce settlement as a negotiation position.

If the EU are understandably playing hard ball then there is nothing wrong with her telling them that the British people do not believe that the deal is acceptable and certainly not worth 39bn of taxpayers money.

However, we will not walk away from our so called obligations but we will pay the 39bn over 39 years.

I am sure that this would get the backing of the Commons and the people.
 

Honest John

Full Member
Joined
Dec 15, 2002
Messages
8,352
Location
Hampshire
Can't the UK government create and pass a Bill that, in the event of it being trapped in the backstop, after a certain time period of time, the UK would be prepared to act in defiance of the WA.
 

GloryHunter07

Full Member
Joined
Oct 11, 2007
Messages
12,152
I am still amazed that she has not even tried to use the 39bn divorce settlement as a negotiation position.

If the EU are understandably playing hard ball then there is nothing wrong with her telling them that the British people do not believe that the deal is acceptable and certainly not worth 39bn of taxpayers money.

However, we will not walk away from our so called obligations but we will pay the 39bn over 39 years.

I am sure that this would get the backing of the Commons and the people.
I think she has, no deal means no £39bn
 

SquishyMcSquish

New Member
Joined
Jul 4, 2018
Messages
8,198
Supports
Tottenham
I am still amazed that she has not even tried to use the 39bn divorce settlement as a negotiation position.

If the EU are understandably playing hard ball then there is nothing wrong with her telling them that the British people do not believe that the deal is acceptable and certainly not worth 39bn of taxpayers money.

However, we will not walk away from our so called obligations but we will pay the 39bn over 39 years.

I am sure that this would get the backing of the Commons and the people.
I'm curious, what would actually happen if we straight up refused to pay the 39 billion? Just walked out and said no, you'll never get it.
 

Honest John

Full Member
Joined
Dec 15, 2002
Messages
8,352
Location
Hampshire
There's a significant element of the EU that are in the 'we're not that bothered' camp. The UK are the opt-out kings of the block and have been a thorn in the side of their plans for decades.
 

Paul the Wolf

Full Member
Joined
Apr 17, 2014
Messages
17,898
Location
France - can't win anything with Swedish turnips
I am still amazed that she has not even tried to use the 39bn divorce settlement as a negotiation position.

If the EU are understandably playing hard ball then there is nothing wrong with her telling them that the British people do not believe that the deal is acceptable and certainly not worth 39bn of taxpayers money.

However, we will not walk away from our so called obligations but we will pay the 39bn over 39 years.

I am sure that this would get the backing of the Commons and the people.
The 39bn is partly what the UK owe and partly for the transition period payment.
The worst thing she could do would be to threaten this.

It's not a massive sum of money in the grand scheme of things even if it seems a lot to the average person. This is about trust and principle and to get a new relationship.

The agreement she has is basically what any PM would have come back with - everyone knew from the beginning that the EU would never budge on the 4 freedoms and will support Ireland all the way on the border.
There's no way anything she says will change this.

The problem has been that she and all the other politicians have lied before and since the referendum and have misled the electorate.
The ERG aren't worried about the 39bn - they want a clean break, Labour want the government to fall and will reject whatever was brought back. The 39bn is a red herring.
 

SquishyMcSquish

New Member
Joined
Jul 4, 2018
Messages
8,198
Supports
Tottenham
The 39bn is partly what the UK owe and partly for the transition period payment.
The worst thing she could do would be to threaten this.

It's not a massive sum of money in the grand scheme of things even if it seems a lot to the average person. This is about trust and principle and to get a new relationship.

The agreement she has is basically what any PM would have come back with - everyone knew from the beginning that the EU would never budge on the 4 freedoms and will support Ireland all the way on the border.
There's no way anything she says will change this.

The problem has been that she and all the other politicians have lied before and since the referendum and have misled the electorate.
The ERG aren't worried about the 39bn - they want a clean break, Labour want the government to fall and will reject whatever was brought back. The 39bn is a red herring.
It's not a huge sum in the grand scheme of countries and their economies, but it isn't insignificant either. It's more than our entire yearly military budget for example.
 

Paul the Wolf

Full Member
Joined
Apr 17, 2014
Messages
17,898
Location
France - can't win anything with Swedish turnips
It's not a huge sum in the grand scheme of countries and their economies, but it isn't insignificant either. It's more than our entire yearly military budget for example.
Yes but it's payable over years , not in one go. If the UK left without a deal it would reduce to about 24bn or so. And the UK would lose a hell of lot more than 39bn in future trade and goodwill notwithstanding the world watching on.
 

Buster15

Go on Didier
Joined
Aug 28, 2018
Messages
13,548
Location
Bristol
Supports
Bristol Rovers
The 39bn is partly what the UK owe and partly for the transition period payment.
The worst thing she could do would be to threaten this.

It's not a massive sum of money in the grand scheme of things even if it seems a lot to the average person. This is about trust and principle and to get a new relationship.

The agreement she has is basically what any PM would have come back with - everyone knew from the beginning that the EU would never budge on the 4 freedoms and will support Ireland all the way on the border.
There's no way anything she says will change this.

The problem has been that she and all the other politicians have lied before and since the referendum and have misled the electorate.
The ERG aren't worried about the 39bn - they want a clean break, Labour want the government to fall and will reject whatever was brought back. The 39bn is a red herring.
Don't agree at all.
Firstly you say that 39bn is not a massive sum of money. Really. Ask the schools or NHS or Police or the electorate whether they agree. I think I know the answer.

Secondly. Why not threaten it. Remember. I did not say we should not pay it. I simple said that faced with an unacceptable withdrawal bill we should decide on the terms of the payment.
 

Paul the Wolf

Full Member
Joined
Apr 17, 2014
Messages
17,898
Location
France - can't win anything with Swedish turnips
Don't agree at all.
Firstly you say that 39bn is not a massive sum of money. Really. Ask the schools or NHS or Police or the electorate whether they agree. I think I know the answer.

Secondly. Why not threaten it. Remember. I did not say we should not pay it. I simple said that faced with an unacceptable withdrawal bill we should decide on the terms of the payment.
As I said the withdrawal agreement is not going to change so threatening is a bit of a waste of energy, it would just mean that the future relationship would be soured.

As I said it's over years that it is paid not in one go - The Uk are losing far more than £39bn by leaving the EU, the NHS Police and schools are short of money because of the Tory policies not because the UK are in the EU. When the Uk have left the government will have lost its scapegoat.
 

Honest John

Full Member
Joined
Dec 15, 2002
Messages
8,352
Location
Hampshire
It's not all about money.

One customer we had was putting a lot of business our way. However, they turned out to be the most unholy pain in the arse. Literally on the phone every five minutes, generally about nothing or stuff that turned out to be their fault.

They then sent in a different package work for us to quote on which, in money terms at least would be more lucrative than the previous one.

We concluded that the aggro wasn't worth it. So we stuck in ridiculous prices and said if they want us to do it then that's what they would have to pay.

They found somebody else.

We were prepared to take the hit for the reduction in hassle.

The ERG headbangers that think walking away will have the EU running after us are deluded.

David Davis claiming on QT last night that WTO is jolly fine and dandy (notice he didn't mention that it flies in the face of the GFA), is either thick or has money staked on the outcome he is trying to force this country into.

This is as good as it gets and unless we are is prepared to put it back to the people, and accept whatever is decided (after having spent tens of millions cleaning up the UK streets and rebuilding damaged premises), then we should take what is on the table.
 

sullydnl

Ross Kemp's caf ID
Joined
Sep 13, 2012
Messages
34,063
As I said the withdrawal agreement is not going to change so threatening is a bit of a waste of energy, it would just mean that the future relationship would be soured.

As I said it's over years that it is paid not in one go - The Uk are losing far more than £39bn by leaving the EU, the NHS Police and schools are short of money because of the Tory policies not because the UK are in the EU. When the Uk have left the government will have lost its scapegoat.
Will it though? It's not hard to imagine them switching their scapegoat from "the EU" to "the terrible deal the EU gave us".
 

sun_tzu

The Art of Bore
Joined
Aug 23, 2010
Messages
19,536
Location
Still waiting for the Youthquake
Don't agree at all.
Firstly you say that 39bn is not a massive sum of money. Really. Ask the schools or NHS or Police or the electorate whether they agree. I think I know the answer.

Secondly. Why not threaten it. Remember. I did not say we should not pay it. I simple said that faced with an unacceptable withdrawal bill we should decide on the terms of the payment.
well we will be spending 87bn on education next year
https://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/uk_education_spending_20.html

Of the 39bn some of this extends out to 2064 though about half falls in 2019 and 2020
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/eu-divorce-bill
so lets say about 10bn in 2019
so around 11% of the education budget
or around 1% of total government spend
or if you like half a percent of our UK debt

So when you look at the bigger picture I think its fair to say its actually not a massive sum of money is it.
 

JulesWinnfield

West Brom Fan
Joined
Aug 27, 2011
Messages
1,501
There's a significant element of the EU that are in the 'we're not that bothered' camp. The UK are the opt-out kings of the block and have been a thorn in the side of their plans for decades.
This isn't really true. The UK is utterly incompetent over Brexit but there's an element of self-flagellation in some remainers that is just as deluded.

Firstly, plenty of countries have opt-outs in the EU for all manor of things, this is not unique at all to Britain.

Secondly, it ignores the reason these opt out and special measures exists in the first place. Britain's rebate for example wasn't some Britain throwing a childish tantrum. Rather Britain already disproportionately contributed to the budget, and secondly the CAP, a huge use of funds, and a completely incompetent policy, was not much use to Britain with its small agricultural section, but countries like France who benefit massively blocked reform despite the issues being there for all to see.

Britain's rebate is in response to this.
 

MadMike

Full Member
Joined
Sep 16, 2015
Messages
11,654
Location
London
Don't agree at all.
Firstly you say that 39bn is not a massive sum of money. Really. Ask the schools or NHS or Police or the electorate whether they agree. I think I know the answer.

Secondly. Why not threaten it. Remember. I did not say we should not pay it. I simple said that faced with an unacceptable withdrawal bill we should decide on the terms of the payment.
The pound's collapse against all major currencies since the Brexit vote has cost the country and its people way WAY more than the £39bn. I don't need to ask schools, police or the NHS anything about that either. I find it quite humorous when Brexiteers (don't mean you specifically) bring up the issue of EU payments in one sentence making a big deal of it. While in the next sentence they non-nonchalantly mention they'd be OK with the country taking a financial hit from loss of trade in the short/medium term, if it results in UK regaining full sovereignty. I mean do you care about money, or do you not?

A threat that you're not willing to follow through with, is an empty threat. And when following through could likely lead to a breakdown of bilateral trade relations and loss of trade for both, but primarily the UK, it's akin to cutting of your nose to spite your face.
 

do.ob

Full Member
Joined
Jun 19, 2010
Messages
15,626
Location
Germany
Supports
Borussia Dortmund
Aren't those 39bn payments that the UK already commited to before Brexit happened? I don't know what legal steps the EU would have to go after that money, but at best the UK would be screaming to the whole world (especially the parts that they then desperately have to negotiate trade deals with) that they have no problem breaking their word or even contracts. Not to mention what could happen if one of the biggest trading blocs, that makes up all your neighbours gets vindictive.
 
Last edited:

sun_tzu

The Art of Bore
Joined
Aug 23, 2010
Messages
19,536
Location
Still waiting for the Youthquake
Aren't those 39bn payments that the UK already commited to pay before Brexit happened? I don't know what legal steps the EU would have to go after that money, but at best the UK would be screaming to the whole world (especially the parts that they then desperately have to negotiate trade deals with) that they have no problem breaking their word or even contracts.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/eu-divorce-bill

The December joint UK-EU report showed that both sides had agreed a methodology for working out what the UK would pay – and that those payments would be made in advance as they fell due rather than settled in one go.

How much will we pay?
The deal in December did not contain an exact figure, though at the time, UK officials estimated a potential bill of £35–39 billion (bn).

The UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) set out detailed estimates of what the UK would pay in its Economic and Fiscal Outlook report, published alongside the Chancellor’s Spring Statement. That set out a total bill of €41.4bn (£37.1bn), extending out to 2064 as pension liabilities fall due.

But it also makes clear that around half consist of payments the UK will make during the transition phase. The OBR estimates net payments under the financial settlement of €18.5bn (£16.4bn) in 2019 and 2020, during the transition, followed by net payments of €7.6bn in 2021, €5.8bn (2022) €3.1bn (2023) and €1.7bn (2024) before falling away to €0.2bn in 2028. The liabilities, net of assets, that then remain to be paid amount to a total of €2.7bn over the period 2021–45.

Is there a Brexit dividend?
The OBR makes it clear that the UK payments under the divorce settlement are significantly lower than the UK’s continued net contribution would have been if we had remained a member. But it also notes that these numbers do not tell the whole story, because:

  • Ministers have committed to replace funding where there are currently receipts from EU programmes: the UK currently receives £3bn from the Common Agricultural Policy but also money from structural funds and science research programmes. Those commitments are time-limited but are unlikely to cease completely once the UK has left the EU.
  • The UK has said it may participate in EU agencies and programmes after Brexit. Those would come at a price yet to be negotiated. The OBR notes that in 2016 the cost of UK participation in Erasmus (student exchange), Creative Europe and Horizon 2020 was £2bn.
The UK will incur other costs as a consequence of Brexit:

  • The UK will incur continuing costs of running the new post-Brexit regimes for customs and EU migration. The Chief Secretary to the Treasury announced an allocation of £1.5bn for Brexit preparations in 2018–19, the bulk of which was to prepare the border.
  • If the UK decided not to participate in EU agencies, it would bear the costs of setting up new agencies – though most of the running costs would be recouped from business.
As the OBR notes, the final factor is that any deterioration of economic performance as a consequence of Brexit will have a significant impact on the public finances. The Government’s own sectoral analyses, published by the Commons Exiting the EU Committee, suggests that an agreement to an European Economic Area-style relationship would lead by 2033–34 to an annual deterioration in borrowing of £20bn rising to an £80bn borrowing increase if the UK was trading with the EU on World Trade Organization terms.

Could we walk away without paying?
The financial deal is an integral part of the withdrawal settlement that also includes the agreement on transition, so reneging on the financial deal would mean leaving the EU with no transition arrangements in place. Future UK compliance will be overseen by the governance arrangements agreed as part of the withdrawal treaty.

If negotiations broke down later this year, and the UK refused to pay, the EU might seek redress through the International Court of Justice or the Permanent Court of Arbitration, both located in The Hague. The result of such a court case would be hard to predict.