It's Sunday mate,everyone's entitled to a day off.
Club Sale | It’s done!
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik @Rood and Imran @Annihilate Now! start with the good news by celebrating Manchester United Women's emphatic FA Cup win over Spurs at Wembley and the future of manager Marc Skinner.
Then it's the bad news and the ever worsening form of our Men with losses to Arsenal and Palace.
Finally the main debate - ETH Out now or keep him until the end of the season - if not longer. Are you Team Nik or Team Imran?
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Probably cos everyone has been blocked by twitter, so no one can post anything original.
Surely the two Glazer brothers ‘way forward’ depends on whether they are prepared to keep ownership of there shares indefinitely, no?
If they’ve set themselves a time limit and need a resolution before then, then I’d get your point, but I’m struggling to see how they could be forced to sell.
Realistically, how real do you think is any threat (tacit or otherwise) from Qatar to walk away?
Can the four normal gifted siblings force the two leftovers to do the full sale? Or what happens if four wants the sale and two do not? No sale? And in that case, why? Isn´t the four sibling in a majority both in numbers and in total ownership percentage? How could the two stop that?
There comes a time when even the most patient businessman will walk away from a deal if they feel they are being taken for fools.
Yeah I was wondering about this too. They all own b shares so surely they could get a majority?
Some interesting developments:
https://luhgreedygoblincunts.com/sale-update
desperate plea for a thread ban so tired of it but feck it it's the weekend and nothing is happening so probably doesn't merit a thread ban after all is this a caf record for the longest white text post, probably not. sundays in off season suck and I am stuck with boring relatives for another 2 hours fml
https://luhgreedygoblincunts.com/sale-update
desperate plea for a thread ban so tired of it but feck it it's the weekend and nothing is happening so probably doesn't merit a thread ban after all is this a caf record for the longest white text post, probably not. sundays in off season suck and I am stuck with boring relatives for another 2 hours fml
Think about J&A options:
Sell to SJR. This only works if it is the other siblings who sell as J&A want to keep their shares. In this scenario they fight off legal action from the Class A gang, INEOS invest in the club and J&A sell for twice as much in five years time having benefitted from INEOS investment inflating value of their shares. But the other four siblings currently prefer the Qatar bid as it gives them the same money and is legally and reputationally risk free.
Block any sale. The club needs massive reinvestment and their debt model no longer works. Club sinks into mid table obscurity and their share value tanks and all six Glazers lose a load of money and still get sued by the shareholders. Not going to happen.
Block Qatar. They can do this up to a point but if the four other siblings want it then they can go nuclear and find a way to sell their Class B shares and cut out J&A.
Fek about. J&A can fek about in a legally watertight way till Qatar loses patience and walks away but that seems like it won't happen. If they do walk away then J&A position is much better because the INEOS bid is the only one on the table and the legal case by the Class A shareholders disappears. This is where we currently are but it's not sustainable for ever.
So it all hinges on Qatar staying in the game and the four siblings preferring them. If J&A were to do something blue sky like guarantee any legal liabilities over a SJR sale then they could potentially get the four on board. So let's get out the calculator.
There are currently 54,537,360 Class A shares, and 110,207,613 of the more powerful Class B shares. So at the leaked $38 per share that's $2 billion of Class A shares that the INEOS deal would be effectively rendering worth much less - and potentially worth nothing in certain circumstances. Are J&A going to underwrite that risk? I would say not given that they are only there for the payday and are ultimately just greedy twat rentier capitalists and not real businessmen who like calculated risk. There is also the possibility that this risk does not really exist and lawyers can be produced to say to the satisfaction of the four siblings that the Class A shareholders have no case. But that seems unlikely.
The most likely option left after this Glazer shitshow where the share price does not tank is a full sale to Qatar. And this goes back to the basic truth that Qatar is spending way more on buying the club than INEOS is offering to. The INEOS bid is underwritten and only possible by forcing losses on the Class A shareholders. And this is because Qatar's wealth is practically infinite while SJR is just a common or garden billionaire businessman who has to balance the books.
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Not at all funny but a waste of space
Big news. Exciting to see all the proposed construction and infrastructure.
I don't know where this process is going. Don't understand what Joel and Avram truly want. The relative strength and value of Manchester United brand is only going to continue to decrease, as long as they remain involved. More and more money is entering Premier League, even Arsenal can afford to spend £250m+ in a window. There are also moneyball experts like Liverpool, Brighton, Brentford, not to mention City, Chelsea and Newcastle with seemingly infinite resources. Club desperately needs to get rid of the Glazers in order to survive - their cash cow model of ownership(robbery) is simply not sustainable anymore(it never was, of course).
They have only 2 bidders(probably much less than they expected). If they piss off Qatar, Qataris will buy someone else in the PL and there won't be Middle Eastern generous offers anymore. Glazers are not going to get a better offer than Sheikh Jassim's in the future. It just doesn't make business sense for them to remain. It's now or never.
I'm not sure if the other 4 Glazer siblings can somehow force Joel and Avram to sell - they probably can't from what i've heard.
They have only 2 bidders(probably much less than they expected). If they piss off Qatar, Qataris will buy someone else in the PL and there won't be Middle Eastern generous offers anymore. Glazers are not going to get a better offer than Sheikh Jassim's in the future. It just doesn't make business sense for them to remain. It's now or never.
I'm not sure if the other 4 Glazer siblings can somehow force Joel and Avram to sell - they probably can't from what i've heard.
ahh christinaa, it'll all be grand.
You have a blessed rest of weekend.
They can probably force through a partial sale to Qatar which forces J&A to follow suite. But it will be messy and drawn out and requires Qatar to play ball. The four siblings have twice as many Class B shares as J&A and if they vote as a block can do wtf they like. If Qatar buys all that and they keep their Class B status they can dictate terms to J&A or ignore them altogether and then they get nothing.
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Got a feeling things are going to get a bit bumpy over the next 50 pages and unfortunately for us, the Yanks are probably going to be late to the party.
A slight positive is that things might be about to take off, at least for a short time.
A slight positive is that things might be about to take off, at least for a short time.
a partial sale doesn’t work because that leaves the remaining Glazers with control and all the leverage
Not if they first vote through a change or find a loophole allowing them to sell their Class B shares as Class B shares. This has to happen anyway if INEOS buy. Presumably there is a private shareholders' agreement governing all this but as far as I know we don't know what it says.
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but given the premise of this discussion is that there is a divide between the Glazers, that isn’t very likely..
the entire purpose of the voting rights structure is to prevent this situation from happening, that being one or more could screw over the rest
the reality here is there is very likely no divide and they are just trying to squeeze every last drop.. because as much as we like to think they are morons, they have expert lawyers protecting their interests
if one or two could sell by themselves, the others all get weakened, just like the horse debacle which got us in this mess to begin with
That would be great.
Thanks man. Your knowledge of this is way WAY more detailed than mine, so I absolutely cede to that: thanks for taking the time to spell it out!
The only thing I’d take issue with is the idea that ‘their debt model no longer works’.
I mean, from the perspective of purely looking at dividends received and value of the club, I’m not sure that it’s really ‘not working’ for them. I light be misunderstanding, but what’s the worst, and best, that could happen (from their selfish point of view) over the next year or two. I can’t see Utd fundamentally losing value, and there’s a decent chance that a £6bn football club today will become an £8bn football club by 2025 or 2026.
I think those two Glazers are playing a game, but I can imagine they view the Qatar bid as an almost unlimited opportunity.
The split between the two and the other 4 is apparently what's caused this to be a never ending nightmare?
I think we are into the finer details now. Glazers are sitting on the Qatar offer which is currently in the lead waiting to see if INEOS can get funding to buy the club outright at the premium they offered. If they can’t, they will eventually accept the Qatar offer. If they can, Qatar will put in a new take it or leave it offer to get back in front.
It’s essentially just waiting for INEOS to realise that Qatar will always have a slightly better offer and call it a day. Whether that’s already happened or not I have no idea. The leaks of INEOS bid being dead could have meant they haven’t made any improvements on it for months and that’s a problem for them with Qatar currently in the lead. It could mean they already communicated that they can’t or won’t buy the A shares in which case it’s a non-starter.
I don’t see any path from here where Ratcliffe puts a better offer in and the Qataris admit defeat and I’ve already explained why I think minority investment is nothing more than a negotiation tool and completely infeasible for them when they have these offers already on the table.
It’s essentially just waiting for INEOS to realise that Qatar will always have a slightly better offer and call it a day. Whether that’s already happened or not I have no idea. The leaks of INEOS bid being dead could have meant they haven’t made any improvements on it for months and that’s a problem for them with Qatar currently in the lead. It could mean they already communicated that they can’t or won’t buy the A shares in which case it’s a non-starter.
I don’t see any path from here where Ratcliffe puts a better offer in and the Qataris admit defeat and I’ve already explained why I think minority investment is nothing more than a negotiation tool and completely infeasible for them when they have these offers already on the table.
in the hypothetical Ineos example all the Glazers have agreed to this plan, so it’s feasible to change the m&a’s. In the hypothetical forced through partial sale, they don’t all agree. I doubt that change can be forced through via shareholder vote, as that defeats the purpose of the rule in the first place
I don’t think anyone knows the details on the A/B issue but my best guess is that it’s a function put in place to protect the Glazers from each other. I think it means that acting alone, they cannot sell their B shares and put the rest of the family’s control of the club in jeopardy. It forces them to act as a unit and agree to the handover of voting rights.
I don't know how you can tell if the divide is real or a ploy. In certain circumstances a majority of shareholders can change the rules while in others the rules are a contract that cannot be altered without the agreement of all parties. We don't know which this is. But if unanimity is required and J&A will only agree to something that benefits them at the expense of their siblings then that would be war and all bets are off. J&A could get kicked out of the chair and control handed to Qatar by any number of means - including the siblings joining the 92 Group. They could then stop paying dividends altogether. It would be a real mess.
My feeling is that Qatar is done raising the price and INEOS are just waiting to see if Qatar drops out, so trying to further turn the screw would be pointless. This attempt by J&A to force the INEOS deal is real but it will fail.
This is what I said a while back. Surely he must realise that he's wasting his time by now?
nobody knows, that’s why we’re debating it
It’s what I would do as someone with a lot of experience in business (claim there is a divide).. a divide between key stakeholders makes it much easier to play hard-ball
it also allows them to conveniently claim Ineos is in the lead even if Qatar have bid more.. because well we just favour that structure. Hint hint, please bid more Qatar
but there’s an obvious logic to the theory that all Glazers need to agree to change the 10x voting rights rule
that rule protects them all from one or two shafting the others.. so it stands to reason it can’t be changed without 100% agreement
otherwise the thing it’s supposed to protect them from can be done anyway
I wouldn’t even be that surprised if Jimmy was in on it. He was never going to outbid a state. You can check my posts I’ve been saying the same thing the entire time, it was always going to be Qatar this entire charade is nothing more than getting as much from them as possible
there’s zero chance they don’t sell or some if the cnuts sell and others stay
I think that what you're saying is true, and it's very depressing at the same time. It basically means that every member of the family has the right to veto any potential sale if he/she doesn't like the terms(price) for some reason. There are reports that Glazer siblings are not really close(don't have a particularly good relationship).
This means that getting all 6 of them to agree the same terms can become extremely difficult. By all accounts they are very petty and obsessed with money. We all know that they absolutely don't care about the club, at all.
Before this whole process started, i was worrying that it will take a total catastrophe(something like possible relegation which would lead to serious devaluation of Man United as a brand) for the Glazers to eventually abandon the club. We are not there yet, but we could be in 10-20 years with Glazers remaining, who knows...
Surely we must get some concrete news this coming week.
If the Qataris drop out then he's good to go.
There's an obvious logic but it might not be true. You'd have to be an expert in corporate law and have access to the document to begin to know. I agree that you are likely right though.
I doubt SJR is in on it completely. I think he knows he's a stalking horse and he's ready to take advantage of any Qatari cold feet. They're not business people and if they feel they're being made fools of then they might well walk. It's a waiting game where nobody needs to call the others' bluff. We could be here for a while. The only ticking clock is the state of the club transfers and we all know the Glazers do not give a fek about that.
How are they not business people?
The Qataris are not governed by profit and loss - it's a sports washing venture by a nation state. They have practically limitless amounts of money. They spent $220 billion on hosting the World Cup just to buy good publicity. Is it really necessary to spell this out?
yeah I know it might not be true it’s just a theory. But I wouldn’t be against it at say 10/1
I’m not an expert in corporate law but I’m the director of a Cayman company so have a good overview, I’ve sat on several boards and taken a company public. So at the very least I’m not just pulling info out of my arse like most seemingly do in this thread
I agree with you on Sir Jimmy
I’m relaxed on the takeover not causing too many issues with our window. Qatar won’t let it feck things up too much in my opinion - at the end of the day they have a lot of leverage here as they know they have the best bid. I’m gutted it’s going up be Qatar but not a lot I can do other than stop supporting United, which I don’t think I’ve got the stones to do.
One of the most stupid takes of the Arabs is that of naive people like you who think rich oil Arab states have no clue what they are doing and the “washing venture” is for what? Publicity? Give your head a wobble next time you go on vacation to Dubai or Doha.
I suspect you are right in the contents of the private agreement. I'm not so sure about how enforceable it would be though. We do know that the Class Bs can be handed to other organisations operating on behalf of the Glazers. If the 92 Foundation were deemed one of these then things could get interesting. Ultimately it would be hard to stop a sibling from signing over their voting rights in perpetuity.
I have actually been involved in the sale of a large American family company where a lengthy squabble ensued. One part of the family actually tried to stop another part from being allowed to sell their shares seperately and failed as a matter of law. But that was a very different situation.
I tend to agree but it's hard to predict. Qatar might get bored and buy Liverpool instead.
I have no idea what that means or why you feel that an obvious fact you disagree with is "stupid," but if you can't see the difference between the priorities of an oil rich nation state and those of a large business then I suggest you visit Specsavers.
This is like that time everyone kept fouling Eden Hazard and then Ander Herrera made his first foul and got booked for everyone else's persistent fouling.
This is all just so incredibly tedious. You’d expect a multi-billion pound deal to come with a little razzmatazz, gold plated hookers and fountains of cocaine.
Boooooooring. Worst. Rich people. Ever.
Boooooooring. Worst. Rich people. Ever.
Did someone try him?
I'm getting Frenkie-transfer-thread-from-last-summer vibes from that comment.
We could've just had a whip-round and all put in a tenner each and bought the club ourselves at this rate. That would've been quicker.
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