No worries, you're just missing a zero in your calculations. As per your graph it's not 4,500,000 cases, it's 45,000,000 cases.I thought I understood but I've got questions again.
61,000 deaths from 4,500,000 cases is 1.36%. (Regular flu from couple of years ago United States).
29 deaths from 987 cases is 2.94%. (Coronavirus now United States).
So if there was 4,500,000 cases of Coronavirus in US and 2.94% of those died, then there would be 132,300 expected deaths.
Are you saying that the number of cases is expected to be much higher than 4,500,000 or that the 2.94% is going to increase? Or both?
I'm not American, I'm just using US numbers because that's what I happen to find. That CDC chart in my initial post.
From that live source US numbers are right now at the present time 38 deaths from 1380 cases. So the death rate right now is not increasing, it's actually dropped slightly. Italy is unusually higher. Germany is really low. I would have thought China's death rate would be higher due to it being the source and being very densely populated. Also, why is the number of new cases in China only 18?Some numbers are here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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That's it. I'm going blind. I was checking and double checking but I didn't think of checking whether I put the right bloody number down!No worries, you're just missing a zero in your calculations. As per your graph it's not 4,500,000 cases, it's 45,000,000 cases.
Just the other day Merkel came out and said that up to 70% of the German population could contract covid-19 in the next 2 years, so while it sounds and is extraordinary 45,000,000 cases in the US remains within the upper bounds of possibility if we just let this fecker spread. If something like that truly happened then a 2.94% mortality rate could well increase because there simply wouldn't be the medical resources or personnel to cope with demand. There would also be a knock-on effect to other forms of death. Since everywhere would be maxed out dealing with covid-19 patients there'd be nothing left to expend on any other types of illness, including flu.
Because China have completely shut down and are preventing it from spreading, Italy will eventually start to drop too. The issue in China is so many people were carrying it before anyone knew it existed and in Italy it spread like wildfire because of people not taking precautions. Italy will see dwindling numbers soon as well but it may have to suffer a China like couple of weeks in getting to that point.From that live source US numbers are right now at the present time 38 deaths from 1380 cases. So the death rate right now is not increasing, it's actually dropped slightly. Italy is unusually higher. Germany is really low. I would have thought China's death rate would be higher due to it being the source and being very densely populated. Also, why is the number of new cases in China only 18?
I don't see any rational to crowning the winners of a league, prior to the league being either completed or the standings being mathematically certain. Even in the latter case, part of the terms of the compeition is being able to fulfil your fixtures and you can't just not play once you are mathematically champions.The Athletic link someone posted is probably the best estimate. Either take the snapshot of the league now and call it the final standings (clubs can't complain about Liverpool being Champions but would complain about top 4/relegation standings) Or, have play-offs to decide.
My punt is a blend of the two. Liverpool won't need a play off and will be crowned as Champions whilst those within an x band of top 4 will have a play-off of some sort. Same with those in relegation zones. I can't really think of any other way?
My only thinking is less fixtures to play when eventually everything restarts e.g. you get 1-2 rounds in and also the FA cup and so you're left with 7-8 premier league games and semi finals and final of FA cup. Could fit that all in just over a month if you had an xmas type schedule.I just don't understand why it hasn't been suspended.
It's not going away, players have it and fans have it. It will be suspended after this round of fixtures at any rate, or after the next one. It's just delaying for no reason and risking exposing more people to it and spreading it more widely. I'm honestly baffled.
The US are just lagging. CDC and epidemic experts are already bracing for the number to go very high because they believe underlying complications are a risk and the US has a lot more obese people, which will in turn be a problem. Overall it's a volume issue. But let's hope for the best indeed.From that live source US numbers are right now at the present time 38 deaths from 1380 cases. So the death rate right now is not increasing, it's actually dropped slightly. Italy is unusually higher. Germany is really low. I would have thought China's death rate would be higher due to it being the source and being very densely populated. Also, why is the number of new cases in China only 18?
that is coldPlaying all games behind close doors isn't the way forward and can't be the answer. I say this because it gives an unfair advantage to City who are used to playing in front of no fans.
Yep same for Brighton v Arsenal and potentially Chelsea playing us given we played Leicester on monday night.They have to (temporarily) suspend the season. Watford plays Leicester next, right? If I'm a Watford player, I say no way in heck am I going out on that pitch. Leceister has 3 players in isolation, and who know how many more on that team are infected that aren't showing symptoms just yet. It doesn't seem right to potentially put Watford players @ risk of catching this virus from Leicester players.
So the Premier League handbook states:Amongst all this bad news, I have some potentially happy news for you!
According to a poster in another thread, UEFA use a ranking system when a season is cancelled. In which case Real would be crowned winners of the Champions League and we would be crowned winners of the Europa League due to our team ranking. If the PL is cancelled Liverpool won't win the league and we would still play in Champions League next season for being crowned champions of the Europa League due to ranking.
Our dreams come true!
'Season' is defined as:C.11. The Club which is at the top of the table at the end of the Season shall be the League Champions.
That's about the entirety of the relevant material remarkably. Section L: Fixtures makes no allowance for fixtures simply not to be played at the discretion of the league or anything like that. Section X : Arbitration could handle any dispute over it, I guess.“Season” means the period commencing on the date of the first League Match on the fixture list of the League’s first team competition and ending on the date of the last;
Exactly, even though indications are healthy fit people get mild flu, no one knows for sure if it leaves the lungs a bit less than they were before, this could be big impact on professional sportsman???Doesn't really matter what our love for the game is when it comes to this virus being transmitted which is a 100% risk to the well-being of players rightfully so the league should be suspended. I think writing off the season is a terrible idea, I can't stand Liverpool but on the premise of this season they deserve the league title. We are lucky to be in 5th right now with City's ban imposed that should be a champions league qualification. I would take the league finishing right now with the current points tally if it gets us into next season UCL. Also makes it hard to sack Ole so it's beneficial for the club imo.
This seems horribly unfair on all teams that are challenging for top five and would miss out, and also for relegated teams. Really the only sensible way to do it is to write it off and start again next season.Doesn't really matter what our love for the game is when it comes to this virus being transmitted which is a 100% risk to the well-being of players rightfully so the league should be suspended. I think writing off the season is a terrible idea, I can't stand Liverpool but on the premise of this season they deserve the league title. We are lucky to be in 5th right now with City's ban imposed that should be a champions league qualification. I would take the league finishing right now with the current points tally if it gets us into next season UCL. Also makes it hard to sack Ole so it's beneficial for the club imo.
No, the virus spread like wildfire because that's what it does, everywhere. The only difference between italy and spain, france, germany, uk, etc is that we're a week or more aheadBecause China have completely shut down and are preventing it from spreading, Italy will eventually start to drop too. The issue in China is so many people were carrying it before anyone knew it existed and in Italy it spread like wildfire because of people not taking precautions. Italy will see dwindling numbers soon as well but it may have to suffer a China like couple of weeks in getting to that point.
Absolute fecking moron.Boris has decided not to ban mass gatherings so I assume that includes football.
Spreading slowly is better than spreading fast.Closing the schools won't prevent it from spreading slowly
We've closed the schools in Ireland in order to slow the fecker down.
Exactly what I was looking for. Unlimited POWAAAAAh.
So it looks like the PL will go ahead BCD’s.Boris has decided not to ban mass gatherings so I assume that includes football.
China is about the most open and honest country there is, I see no reason to doubt their word...From that live source US numbers are right now at the present time 38 deaths from 1380 cases. So the death rate right now is not increasing, it's actually dropped slightly. Italy is unusually higher. Germany is really low. I would have thought China's death rate would be higher due to it being the source and being very densely populated. Also, why is the number of new cases in China only 18?
The guy really doesn’t have a scooby which is massively concerningBoris has decided not to ban mass gatherings so I assume that includes football.
Yeah, it is. But I think totally corrupt and run for the super rich is a better answer. I just hope beyond hope that people remember how badly this has been handled by the government.This country is such a joke
Was he at Cheltenham holding a pint of Guinness when he said it?The guy really doesn’t have a scooby which is massively concerning
Country, Other | Total Cases | New Cases | Total Deaths | New Deaths | Total Recovered | Active Cases | Serious, Critical | Tot Cases/ 1M pop |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
China | 80,796 | +18 | 3,169 | +11 | 62,826 | 14,801 | 4,257 | 56.1 |
Italy | 15,113 | +2,651 | 1,016 | +189 | 1,258 | 12,839 | 1,153 | 250.0 |
Iran | 10,075 | +1,075 | 429 | +75 | 3,276 | 6,370 | 120.0 | |
S. Korea | 7,869 | +114 | 66 | +6 | 333 | 7,470 | 54 | 153.5 |
Spain | 3,059 | +782 | 86 | +31 | 189 | 2,784 | 126 | 65.4 |
Germany | 2,502 | +536 | 5 | +2 | 25 | 2,472 | 9 | 29.9 |
France | 2,281 | 48 | 12 | 2,221 | 105 | 34.9 | ||
USA | 1,396 | +95 | 39 | +1 | 15 | 1,342 | 10 | 4.2 |
It's worrying but China is also further ahead, their measure have greatly reduced the numbers of new cases to a point where there's not many new cases. Italy should follow suit if the measure they've taken are effective. Essentially, it demonstrates that social distancing is the way to fight the spread.Italy is about to overtake China in total active cases in a day or two. How is Europe not worried all over the place, god knows.
Spain, France and Germany catching up too.
Country,
OtherTotal
CasesNew
CasesTotal
DeathsNew
DeathsTotal
RecoveredActive
CasesSerious,
CriticalTot Cases/
1M popChina 80,796 +18 3,169 +11 62,826 14,801 4,257 56.1 Italy 15,113 +2,651 1,016 +189 1,258 12,839 1,153 250.0 Iran 10,075 +1,075 429 +75 3,276 6,370 120.0 S. Korea 7,869 +114 66 +6 333 7,470 54 153.5 Spain 3,059 +782 86 +31 189 2,784 126 65.4 Germany 2,502 +536 5 +2 25 2,472 9 29.9 France 2,281 48 12 2,221 105 34.9 USA 1,396 +95 39 +1 15 1,342 10 4.2
He is listening to advice from the scientists and doctors who have knowledge in this area. This isn't a decision he is making just on a whim...Absolute fecking moron.
Not if teams refuse to play saying it is detrimental to their health. What are PL going to do dock them points & fine them. I am sure Everton players are not feeling well at this time.So it looks like the PL will go ahead BCD’s.
But that doesn't mean the PL cannot do the more responsible thing and allow for football to be played behind closed doors. But then I don't totally believe in the PL to be responsible or have high standards of integrity.Boris has decided not to ban mass gatherings so I assume that includes football.
Yeah but when every other major league around the world has cancelled or supports behind closed doors (i.e. no fans), you can see that there's precedence. Sometimes you have the opportunity to make bold decisions as a leader no matter what other people say because you're gathering input from others to make the call and it's your call, it's your head.He is listening to advice from the scientists and doctors who have knowledge in this area. This isn't a decision he is making just on a whim...
It’s much more than that though. European spots, relegation and promotion with hundreds of millions at stake. The season has to be played to completion otherwise it’s void.They'll let Liverpool win 2 games before suspending
They’re right, though. No fecking way the season is scrapped before those wankers have it mathematically sewn up.It's RAWK level delusion to think the PL give that much of a feck about Liverpool winning the league to keep it going just to crown them champions.