nostradamus like gloater
- Jun 21, 2008
Don't understand why you think the share price will be double/triple if Jassim wins as opposed to INEOS?Some brief thoughts on the lay of the land regarding the takeover and the transfer market:
(a) The share price at NYSE is $19 for a Man Utd share. If Sheik Jassim match Ineos' bid it should be $35-40 and if Ineos win the auction it should be around $12-15 (as before the takeover talk started, since Ineos won't buy the NYSE shares). Anyone with insight into the takeover talks and a lofty conscience could hence easily 3-4x an investment in a matter of weeks (if you know Ineos is winning, you can short the share). It is of course just guessing -- but I don't think anything is "done" yet. On avg., it's said that about 40-50 percent of Takeovers leaks before they are announced which also is my experience. At this stage with multiple bidders and so many people involved, it is just unlikely that we won't start to get leaks as soon as the odds really starts tilting in any direction. I don't think anything is done right now.
It won't be as the price will be mostly set by whatever price the Glazers agree to sell at - there could then be some difference since Jassim commits to buy all the shares but it won't be anywhere near that
The rest of your theories are possible but complete speculation and much of it based on info from questionable sources (El Pais etc)