When I went yesterday, there was still quite a bit of the wholewheat pasta left.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Was talking about numbers I saw in blog from Italian medics. Have you seen breakdown of likelihood of ITU admission by age? Can’t find those stats anywhere!
Yes I've seen that some have said there's a possibility that you can't get it for a year after already having it but I feel like it's all guesswork at the moment.
I think the 1% mortality projection people are speculating is extremely optimistic. That looks to be based on everyone receiving adequate healthcare and a ventilator if needed. I just can't see that happening in an epidemic that infects the majority of the population.
Once you develop immunity to a flu strain, you can't get infected unless the strain mutates rapidly. This is why people get flu vaccines once a year.
Me too, it's pathetic how selfish and stupid people are.
I couldn't even get a usual weekend shop and had to resort to expensive alternatives because Tescos didn't put on the staff to put more out. I wonder why...
On the funny side, it shows what people really think about the low fat/salt/sugar alternatives to stuff that supposed to taste the same
It’s not a flu strain though
Ah fair enough. I've never had a flu jab before tbh come to think of it.
Isn’t it the case that the majority of people who get will be ok as it will be like a normal virus however people with breathing difficulties may have more issues?
Subways in Manhattan are already at 40% crowd capacity. Shops are less crowded. Restaurants laying off. Yet no guidance from Govt or big companies.
Below, although this is the split of ICU patients, not the likelihood of a patient of a certain age going into ICU.
From my region only, and there are 150 more than when i posted this:
Yeah, well it just yet again underlines how little we understand about this new virus and how unreliable the tools we currently have are, but I am just saying this kind of reports do not make you confident that the virus definitely cannot be contracted repeatedly:
"public health officials in China and Japan have reported cases in which patients see their symptoms subside and are discharged from hospitals—only to test positive for the coronavirus again."
https://fortune.com/2020/03/06/coronavirus-recover-test-positive-twice/
There're also multiple strains of the virus, so maybe the second time was the other strain. At this point, it seems to all be one big unknown.
All schools and universities closed in Portugal. The supermarket in my area is always overcrowded. I guess the worst is yet to come. This situation is depressing.
So this is % of people in intensive care who fall into those particular age ranges right? Not the % of people in those age ranges who are infected who end up in intensive care? I’d like to know that latter statistic
He is talking about another effect of an epidemic.
Lets describe it this way. A perfect measure would be in his case this scenario:
All under 30 years get infected in the early period and at the same time, when the health system is not overburdened, and in the best case fewer serious cases develop and thus fewer resources of the health system are needed.
And they then can go back into society without spreading it to the more vulnerable. So a substantial part of society does not spread it any longer. The curve flattens and resources can be directed to the vulnerable.
Perfect idea for the UK would be starting this weekend:
All children and youth go to organized 2-3 week youth camps, get infected and quarantined with the neccessary medical resources for serious cases and after three weeks you can send them back to their grandparents without infecting them en masse and thus overwhelming the health system.
Same for the age group up to 30, a 2 week long music festival. They won't even mind the mild sysmptoms, it would be just another massive hangover. And after that they can go back into society and their pubs ;-)
I don't think the tests are benchmarked properly for the false positive and true negative rates. Somewhere an epidemiologist is losing his marbles.
Tell her that although her behaviour hurts you and causes you stress and is needlessly dangerous, you understand that a relationship is all about compromise, and if she must go to a pointless concert for an hour of gratification, you understand that.
Then tell her that you've realized the need to have anal sex with her every night from now on in your relationship, and though she might not be too keen to begin with, you hope she can return the compromise.
She'll either swiftly forget the concert insistence or end the relationship - problem solved.
Helping people get a grip of themselves
What the fecking feck is happening here - we've descended into borderline Eugenics.
The Ruling Class must be loving this.
Karma for the way we treat nature and other animals.
We as humans treat nature like we are the kings of this Universe,killing things without a second thought and not for a reason that make sense or fill a specific need.
Ultimately alot are scared like crap over now something they cant even see & animals are dealt likewise by us.
Mears,SARS, coronavirus - all will just continue mutation as science continue to get us nowhere in synergy with the understanding we initially had with nature.
We as humans treat nature like we are the kings of this Universe,killing things without a second thought and not for a reason that make sense or fill a specific need.
Ultimately alot are scared like crap over now something they cant even see & animals are dealt likewise by us.
Mears,SARS, coronavirus - all will just continue mutation as science continue to get us nowhere in synergy with the understanding we initially had with nature.
As you say, those numbers are not adjusted to take account of population demographics. There are far more people in the older groups in Italy, so I'm not sure there is going to be such a big divergence in likelihood of needing ICU between ages in reality.
This reminds me of the sort of advice Otis would give in Sex Education. I like it!
Absolutely agree. <1% so far has been in other regions of China, South Korea and countries who have had a good health system. In Italy, when the medical system was overwhelmed, it has been closer to 6-7%. Seems that it is going to converge around 4% or so.
Ultimately, it might be lower than 4% (a lot of people dying are in the old category, so when more young people get infected - and there are more young people - the rate will drop). Additionally, kids are not being counted much cause they have next to no symptoms, but once they get counted, the rate will drop further.
I guess in the end it is gonna be around 3% (which is what WHU is estimating). If we get a scenario of half the world getting infected (the worst-case scenarios range 60-70%), that puts the number of victims at 117 million, which is absolutely tragic and more than in the world war combines. Even really optimistic scenarios put it at tens of millions.
All of this cause someone wanted to eat a fecking bat!
It looks like around 10-15% of cases need ventilators.
My CEO Philip Jansen has just been confirmed as having tested positive for the virus and is self isolating. If that’s got about our head office then our business is about to take a big hit.
As far as I know this hideous thing came from Wuhan, not sure why we all deserve it inflicted upon us.
This is where all the Quantum / ML / nanotechnology effort needs to be primarily put in. And I am talking trillions of dollars. The world can take a break for arming itself to the teeth, since you can't kill viruses with nuclear bombs and lasers unless you plan to take out the host as well - which might be the preferred form of treatment in countries such as North Korea.
Usable Quantum computing will be be crucial in this: It will allow robust simulation of primitive pathogens such as viruses . (Bacterias I believe will be too complex for the early systems). Such methods are already being used for molecular level approximation using schrodinger time evolution for quantum chemistry (during antibiotics design) .But they are approximations and the complexity when using classical computational systems becomes tremendous.
If the whole world pours enough resources into this , I think this nut can be cracked.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
It's baffling to me that the island of Ireland wouldn't be treated as one in circumstances like this, rather than NI following measures deemed appropriate by a government primarily focused on the needs of an entirely different island.
I meant something like this more or less. Not to do it for real (people wouldn't accept it even in China), but it is a very interesting thought experiment (IMO). It would be interesting if someone does a simulation, but it probably has less victims in the end. I mean, if you remove 60% of the people from spreading the infection, the infection would really slow down a lot.
* Of course, this assumes that the infection does not return, which as of now, it is not a safe assumption.
Bang on.
An example as to why governments just can’t be trusted with stuff like this. Doomed.
I imagine 95%+ of healthy, young people will recover from COVID-19 without any medical intervention, aside from rest and painkillers of choice. Flattening the curve is more about distributing the occurrences of cases in the most vulnerable. It will help to some extent, but you will just have pockets of elderly who could all still get a occurrence at a similar time and overwhelm the health system.
The scenario we are facing actually pretty crazily illustrates how, despite us being fearful of being around those with the virus now, we will actually be safer in a few months time being in a room around those who have had the coronavirus and then have developed antibodies to resist it, than being in a room of people who have not contracted it and had no immunity.
The more people who have contracted the virus, the lower the R number becomes because it is more difficult for the virus to find new hosts, but you don’t want too many to have it at any one time because there would be too many with complications all at once.
My work is trialling working from home tomrrow and Monday. Half the office working from home tomorrow and the other half on Monday. Pretty much all expecting that the whole office will need to shut down at some point so it makes sense to trial it now. This is all feeling very strange and concerning.
Sorry, that was never my intention.
In the end this is about statistics and probabilities (at that stage without proper research a lot of it is still in the air).
In the end you want to have as less fatalities as possible. So you are working with the stats you have and try to change variables and probalities (infection rates per age group, available ICU units, various time frame) in different models an in the end you implement the measures with the biggest success rate and the fewest side effects (like an economical meltdown).
All of course according to the legal and moral system you have in a society in place.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51852320
People can come to their own conclusions, after looking at what's happening in other countries, of which methods work and which don't.
I'm seriously wondering whether there's any truth in what the Iranian politician said on ( was it ? ) Monday that Covid-19 was part of a Germ Warfare programme in China and that there was an accidental leak of the virus amongst Lab Staff in Wuhan.
If true, it might go some way to explaining how / what the Chinese Government did do and didn't do in the first few weeks when casualties first started to appear.
One of our biggest customers.
The way these markets work is that they have live animals stuffed into cages stacked on top of each other. So on the bottom floor you have pangolins, above that you have a few bats and above that you have a couple of foxes or deer. So whatever piss/shit/saliva that the animal at the top of the stack secretes gets passed down to the cage below them and so on. That's how the transmission of the virus happens and true to form the Chinese shuttered the markets before WHO or external health officials land in town to make checks so no one really knows what or how the virus originated.
If this was a simple case of biological warfare, the Chinese would have an antidote that works as well for precisely this reason, accidental exposure and controlling it.
We are working from home indefinitely. I am trying to remain calm though and think this is more companies not wanting to leave themselves open to legal action. They are playing it safe. Hopefully!