You would then be of the opinion that the UK (and other countries) should time their policies based on Italy's experience? Interesting thesis, would love to hear you elaborate on that.
Yes and no. We (in my case Germany, yours probably the UK) can learn from Italy's experience. But is has to be tailored to the specifics of the country. For example a country that has more ICUs (and staff) per head than Italy, can wait longer than Italy to implement certain measures. A further example, if a country has additionally a lesser percentage of vulnerable in its population than Italy it can even longer wait with such measures, cause fewer ICUs are needed in relation to the total population.
As Johnson and the scientists alongside him explained, they are doing such mathematical models on a daily basis to get the timing for the measures right. And from day to day these models get better, cause more stats and experiences from different countries are included. And still it has to be tailored to the specifics of country and region. A country where elderly are cared more by family, eg Italy that has to be taken into consideration. A country which has more people in care homes, like Germany, has to consider this too.
Another example, lets say the in the UK the first major regional outbreak is in London, you would introduce major measures when the NHS in greater London is in danger of being overwhelmed. If possible you would wait to introduce this measures in Liverpool and Manchester cause the outbreak is behind and you want to wait for the right moment. Obviously you have to consider if the British population would accept these different timings of measures
But it would be much better to cope with it, especially considering economics and logistics.
For that an example: If a country has two major ports, it would be better that the outbreaks and measures are time different, because you would have at least one working port for handling goods and securing logistics.
And to complicate matters, you are dealing with a population that is nervous and has no or little understanding of such considerations.