SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Godfather]

It pulled down Austria's delta surge. It looks like their Omicron wave is starting now and that's with another set of restrictions in place. We know we can slow it down with lockdowns, we know we can "flatten the curve" if the controls are strong enough, they have to be a lot stronger than before to slow down omicron though and everything we've seen says it will return as soon as the controls are released. Unless we're talking about a lockdown until the other side of an omicron modified vaccine booster perhaps.

We don't know how to live with covid yet. I don't think the NHS has the resources to live with it. I can suggest a whole bunch of mitigations that could have prepared us better, from clean ventilation in schools, hospitality and workplaces to proper sick pay for people who need to isolate. But I don't think lockdowns offer a way out - a way of stalling it perhaps, but not a painless or easy option - which does mean the timing comes down to crude calculations about "what's the worst caseload we can handle." Which will vary from country to country and lots of calculations around vaccine coverage and number of people who can't go into work.

I do agree with your points. But at a certain point a lockdown is the only working wavebreaker to release the pressure on NHS. It's certainly not a longterm solution but needed if NHS capacities are at a tipping point.

And make no mistake. From all the noises we hear here in Austria we will go into another lockdown soon enough because of Omicron. Seems this is our strategy going forward. If that's economically sensible is a different matter but short term it does release pressure on NHS and their capacities. To straight out dispute that effect (not you but the poster II quoted) is nonsense. It seems UK is going a different way though. Might lead to a quicker end of the Omicron wave but at big costs and the detriment of people working for the nhs.

 

[berbatrick]

https://thehill.com/policy/international/china/588305-china-infections-plummet-after-xian-lockdown

1 death as a direct consequence of the lockdown.

 

[Volumiza]

My mother had a paper wasp get stuck between her eyeball & her eyeglass lens while she was driving a car on the highway. Skin-crawling story.

Oh my, I would literally drive my car into a ditch with panic

Was she ok?

 

[jojojo]

I do agree with your points. But at a certain point a lockdown is the only working wavebreaker to release the pressure on NHS. It's certainly not a longterm solution but needed if NHS capacities are at a tipping point.

And make no mistake. From all the noises we hear here in Austria we will go into another lockdown soon enough because of Omicron. Seems this is our strategy going forward. If that's economically sensible is a different matter but short term it does release pressure on NHS and their capacities. To straight out dispute that effect (not you but the poster II quoted) is nonsense. It seems UK is going a different way though. Might lead to a quicker end of the Omicron wave but at big costs and the detriment of people working for the nhs.

It certainly means a massive strain on NHS staff and on care workers (paid or unpaid). For the rest of the impact I think this image gives an idea of why the UK and Austria aren't necessarily at the same point, and why country comparisons don't always help:

A very different risk profile really, particularly when it comes to vaccination rates in the over 65s.

 

[calodo2003]

Oh my, I would literally drive my car into a ditch with panic

Was she ok?

Ended up barely stinging her eyelid. She said that it swelled up a bit, but nothing bad.

She said she didn’t realize what it was at first. She had flicked her cigarette out the window & figured it was that which came back into her eye & she expected it to fall out pretty quick. She was then startled when the wasp started to go berserk between her eye & the lens. In all it lasted about three seconds.

Typing this is literally giving me goosebumps recalling the story.

 

[Tarrou]

I have a question about immunity

I started testing negative about 6/7 days ago and I'm 95% certain my case was Omicron. I've had two jabs but no booster.

I had arranged to stay with a girl in London this weekend before I fly back to Australia. She just tested positive today after first showing symptoms a few days ago, but her case is mild. She suspects it's Omicron too but like me can't be certain

Do I need to avoid meeting her in case of reinfection or do I have enough immunity to crack on?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

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When it comes to giving the ‘rona to each other there’s no denying we are absolute legends.

@Massive Spanner

(During school holidays too! )

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

My wife has a similar dust allergy. She also seems to get a problem swallowing which is scary for her triggered we think by allergies. She’s had a the camera up her nose, down her throat etc and found nothing but we think it’s caused by an allergy so curious how you fixed yours

I used to use a nasal spray called Omnaris (ciclesonide) but stopped in November. I had used it for about 10 years. I seem to be ok now so going to see how long I can go without any bad symptoms.

The swallowing problem could be an esophageal condition. Does she have trouble swallowing things like bread, pasta, etc., or does it only present with her allergy?

 

[golden_blunder]

I used to use a nasal spray called Omnaris (ciclesonide) but stopped in November. I had used it for about 10 years. I seem to be ok now so going to see how long I can go without any bad symptoms.

The swallowing problem could be an esophageal condition. Does she have trouble swallowing things like bread, pasta, etc., or does it only present with her allergy?

Yes she does, but not just that kinda stuff. We think but could be completely wrong that it’s allergy related. None of the consultants or GP have come up with any other suggestions

 

[Massive Spanner]

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When it comes to giving the ‘rona to each other there’s no denying we are absolute legends.

@Massive Spanner

(During school holidays too! )

we socialize on a whole other level. It’s beautiful.

 

[calodo2003]

Flurona is a thing?

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[Pexbo]

Flurona is a thing?

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[Massive Spanner]

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[jojojo]

Flurona is a thing?

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It means they've managed to catch flu and covid at the same time. It's not an exotic new variant or anything fancy like that. It's just an example of that effect where you catch a virus and then while your defences are busy working on that, you catch something else on top of it. It means you get confusing symptoms and test results.

It is not a dramatic escalation in the covid mutation family tree.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

we socialize on a whole other level. It’s beautiful.

On a more serious note I saw some data showing that our booster roll-out and take-up was the best in the EU. Seems to have done absolutely feck all to keep cases down. All our eggs are in the “prevents serious illness” basket right now.

 

[jojojo]

The NHS from the inside. In London it looks like things are improving and they aren't going to see the hospital system collapse. Meanwhile, in the rest of the country the hospitalisations are rising and in many places there's no contingency left in the system to cash in on.

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[Dr. Dwayne]

Yes she does, but not just that kinda stuff

Ooh, that's dirty.

We think but could be completely wrong that it’s allergy related. None of the consultants or GP have come up with any other suggestions

Makes you wonder. I'd definitely do some allergy tests (food based) to see if that's it. I have a mild shellfish allergy and my body refuses to swallow mussels, clams, etc.

 

[F-Red]

https://thehill.com/policy/international/china/588305-china-infections-plummet-after-xian-lockdown

1 death as a direct consequence of the lockdown.

At what cost though?

 

[Boycott]

I've read some complaints about a possible 4th jab. My own feeling is I don't have an issue with it should it be advised. I got the first two several months ago. Booster in December. I've been working all of 2021 back in person with people and wear a mask when needed on public transport and in shops requiring them. Before Omicron it did feel like we were getting back to normality. Hopefully the news that is a mild variant is true. I don't think another lockdown will be followed when we have the vaccines and people in general having a limit. A lot of us cannot do our jobs remotely and if we're vaccinated and follow all the guidelines in terms of public health it's a different scenario in 2022 than when lockdowns were used in 2020. I would prefer vaccine passports than lockdown. Most adults are vaccinated and if you haven't at this point that's on you.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

The NHS from the inside. In London it looks like things are improving and they aren't going to see the hospital system collapse. Meanwhile, in the rest of the country the hospitalisations are rising and in many places there's no contingency left in the system to cash in on.

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Eesh. I guess the big worry here is that London is “protected” by prior infections in the same way that SA was and vaccines alone won’t replicate their experience.

 

[jojojo]

Eesh. I guess the big worry here is that London is “protected” by prior infections in the same way that SA was and vaccines alone won’t replicate their experience.

London has a younger population demographic as well.

Some of the worst affected areas in the northern regions have lower life expectancy and poorer health outcomes generally. Combine that with under-resourced hospitals and a smaller pool of agency staff outside the big cities (like the ones dealing with high case rates in Cumberland) - losing 10/15% of your staff to covid quarantine stops everything.

Meanwhile Manchester has jumped from 349 patients (20 Dec) with covid to 1020 (Jan 3) - that's roughly a quarter of Manchester's hospital beds. More than 700 of those patients tested positive after admission (I've not seen that split between hospital acquired and community acquired). Some of the issue is the sheer logistic hit of running covid wards that contain patients who are in for a different reason. There's just no contingency in the system.

Manchester also think that they have 650+ patients who they can't discharge because they have no after care option available for them. That tends to be a problem for hospitals looking after large numbers of older people or people who need daily support - again, that proportion varies as you move across the country, but generally lower in London.

 

[Wibble]

UCSD is the region's largest and best medical research university, thus assuming it is free to students and staff knowing their results are proprietary for UCSD medical researchers only.

Using one and returning it to sanctioned university test collection labs/areas.

My son is at another UC and rapid and PCR tests are free for all staff and students. No vending machines as far as I know though. So I doubt that UCSD are motivated by the gathering of data as much as protecting themselves from lawsuits for failing to protect their staff and students.

You need to be double vaxxed and boostered to attend campus although the first 2 weeks are back online. Athletes have to get regular rapid tests but I suspect regular testing for all will return very soon.

 

[Wibble]

Flurona is a thing?

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No. They just had two different viruses at the same time.

 

[edcunited1878]

My son is at another UC and rapid and PCR tests are free for all staff and students. No vending machines as far as I know though. So I doubt that UCSD are motivated by the gathering of data as much as protecting themselves from lawsuits for failing to protect their staff and students.

You need to be double vaxxed and boostered to attend campus although the first 2 weeks are back online. Athletes have to get regular rapid tests but I suspect regular testing for all will return very soon.

I agree that they are available first and foremost for their general welfare. Also seems to be part of a regimented testing program if faculty, staff, and students who are on campus might have symptoms. So the accessibility is no issue and the data generated by UCSD will be able to assist them in the future. There's a Covid dashboard that they use.

https://returntolearn.ucsd.edu/dashboard/index.html

 

[Godfather]

It certainly means a massive strain on NHS staff and on care workers (paid or unpaid). For the rest of the impact I think this image gives an idea of why the UK and Austria aren't necessarily at the same point, and why country comparisons don't always help:

A very different risk profile really, particularly when it comes to vaccination rates in the over 65s.

Yeah absolutely. Makes you wonder how much of the believe that Omicron is less severe is simply down to the high immunity levels in the UK and probably SA.

 

[Big-Red]

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When it comes to giving the ‘rona to each other there’s no denying we are absolute legends.

@Massive Spanner

(During school holidays too! )

Any idea why we spread it so much? I wouldn't have thought we socialise much more than the UK, so the only other thing in my head was the population density. Everything being so packed into the cities, then as people travel home etc carry it with them to the more rural areas.

Or is it the simple fact that we love a pint.

 

[Pexbo]

Any idea why we spread it so much? I wouldn't have thought we socialise much more than the UK, so the only other thing in my head was the population density. Everything being so packed into the cities, then as people travel home etc carry it with them to the more rural areas.

Or is it the simple fact that we love a pint.

What?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Any idea why we spread it so much? I wouldn't have thought we socialise much more than the UK, so the only other thing in my head was the population density. Everything being so packed into the cities, then as people travel home etc carry it with them to the more rural areas.

Or is it the simple fact that we love a pint.

I think it’s mainly we love a pint!

I also read a stat recently that we have the highest per capita sales of coffee (i.e. cups of coffee sold in cafés) of anywhere in Europe. We’re basically incredibly social animals.

I know nothing about life outside the pale but my bogger other half tells me that it’s completely normal to have randomers wandering in and out of her parent’s gaff all day, every day, for cups of tea and a natter. Which is apparently a thing that culchies do? I’m sure @Massive Spanner or @moses can shed some light on this.

 

[Big-Red]

What?

What?

 

[Massive Spanner]

I think it’s mainly we love a pint!

I also read a stat recently that we have the highest per capita sales of coffee (i.e. cups of coffee sold in cafés) of anywhere in Europe. We’re basically incredibly social animals.

I know nothing about life outside the pale but my bogger other half tells me that it’s completely normal to have randomers wandering in and out of her parent’s gaff all day, every day, for cups of tea and a natter. Which is apparently a thing that culchies do? I’m sure @Massive Spanner or @moses can shed some light on this.

My parents have been incredibly careful down in Sligo so I can’t speak for them but my other half’s parents in Dublin couldn’t give a shit who visits and let anyone in and out of the place with the attitude of “be grand”. Whenever cases get high I refuse to visit them. It doesn’t go down well.

I think simplifying it to the pubs is ridiculous, though. Closing them at 8 has made absolutely no difference and cases are still skyrocketing.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

My parents have been incredibly careful down in Sligo so I can’t speak for them but my other half’s parents in Dublin couldn’t give a shit who visits and let anyone in and out of the place with the attitude of “be grand”. Whenever cases get high I refuse to visit them. It doesn’t go down well.

I think simplifying it to the pubs is ridiculous, though. Closing them at 8 has made absolutely no difference and cases are still skyrocketing.

Closing them at 8 evidently didn’t make the difference they were hoping. Probably didn’t help that this is a year when loads of people had annual leave to burn so could take a long holiday. Everyone just got the pints in a bit earlier than usual. I know that’s what I did!

It is interesting that we spread the virus so much more than everywhere else, no matter what we do. I think our restrictions this winter were less strict than a few other countries, mind you.

 

[Pexbo]

What?

There’s no way you Irish don’t socialise much more than us Brits.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

There’s no way you Irish don’t socialise much more than us Brits.

I’ve lived on both sides of the pond and there wasn’t that much of a difference. This is London and Dublin though. I don’t have any feel for life in rural/small-town Uk.

What little I know about rural Ireland is that socialising is very important to us, whether at pub, church, GAA club or whatever.

 

[Big-Red]

There’s no way you Irish don’t socialise much more than us Brits.

What @Pogue Mahone said. My experiences in the UK wouldn't be much different to what Dublin would be like. On a rural level could be fairly different though admittedly.

 

[Massive Spanner]

There’s no way you Irish don’t socialise much more than us Brits.

It's very similar and the UK is far, far more densely populated.

Closing them at 8 evidently didn’t make the difference they were hoping. Probably didn’t help that this is a year when loads of people had annual leave to burn so could take a long holiday. Everyone just got the pints in a bit earlier than usual. I know that’s what I did!

It is interesting that we spread the virus so much more than everywhere else, no matter what we do. I think our restrictions this winter were less strict than a few other countries, mind you.

I don't think it's pints, or generally socialising more than other countries (which we do), it's fecking Christmas. We absolutely love Christmas. I work with loads of Americans who are baffled by how mental we go for it. The shopping, the pints, the gatherings, the parties, the house parties, the kids parties, etc. I honestly don't think it matters what they do in December restrictions wise, people love Christmas too much to not try make the most of it.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

It's very similar and the UK is far, far more densely populated.

I don't think it's pints, or generally socialising more than other countries (which we do), it's fecking Christmas. We absolutely love Christmas. I work with loads of Americans who are baffled by how mental we go for it. The shopping, the pints, the gatherings, the parties, the house parties, the kids parties, etc. I honestly don't think it matters what they do in December restrictions wise, people love Christmas too much to not try make the most of it.

You had to drag the kids into it! I haven’t heard of a single kid specific Christmas party. It’s not a thing. Birthday parties in December, sure.

Mind you, my sister took her kids off to see Santa as usual. Who wore a weird/shit mask, disguised as a beard. Looked sinister as feck. Could see something like that turning into a super spreader event. Poor bastard really was putting himself in the firing line.

The twelve pints of Christmas is uniquely Irish tradition (I think?) which will cause absolute fecking chaos in a pandemic. A pub crawl is the worst possible thing to do. I didn’t see anyone doing it this year but was only out a couple of times. So might have missed it.

Socialising aside, our messaging on testing and isolation has been very poor. I know plenty of smart people making really dumb decisions because they’re so confused about all the mixed messages from the state about antigen testing.

 

[Massive Spanner]

You had to drag the kids into it! I haven’t heard of a single kid specific Christmas party. It’s not a thing. Birthday parties in December, sure.

Mind you, my sister took her kids off to see Santa as usual. Who wore a weird/shit mask, disguised as a beard. Looked sinister as feck. Could see something like that turning into a super spreader event. Poor bastard really was putting himself in the firing line.

The twelve pints of Christmas is uniquely Irish tradition (I think?) which will cause absolute fecking chaos in a pandemic. A pub crawl is the worst possible thing to do. I didn’t see anyone doing it this year but was only out a couple of times. So might have missed it.

Socialising aside, our messaging on testing and isolation has been very poor. I know plenty of smart people making really dumb decisions because they’re so confused about all the mixed messages from the state about antigen testing.

It's always the kids!

Anyway it's a combination of everything, I wasn't singling out kids (but I know people who have had big birthday parties with their kids which is nuts, I've fecking seen it in my estate). And yeah I agree that the message from the government on isolation and antigens has been ridiculously muddled and confusing.

Also, you blamed the pubs, yet closing the pubs earlier and bringing in loads of extra restrictions made zero difference. I also haven't heard of a single person doing the twelve pubs this year, how even would you? My only point was that it's clearly a combination of everything. Closing the pubs at 8 is totally pointless, I've seen my local close at 8, everyone just rambles out on the street together at once and ends up back in people's houses which are even more confined.

 

[RedC]

Irish people tend to lick each other's faces after 4 pints, I think that is a contributing factor.

 

[christy87]

I'm gonna say it's spidermans fault, on top of the rest that was listed

 

[Pogue Mahone]

It's always the kids!

Anyway it's a combination of everything, I wasn't singling out kids (but I know people who have had big birthday parties with their kids which is nuts, I've fecking seen it in my estate). And yeah I agree that the message from the government on isolation and antigens has been ridiculously muddled and confusing.

Also, you blamed the pubs, yet closing the pubs earlier and bringing in loads of extra restrictions made zero difference. I also haven't heard of a single person doing the twelve pubs this year, how even would you? My only point was that it's clearly a combination of everything. Closing the pubs at 8 is totally pointless, I've seen my local close at 8, everyone just rambles out on the street together at once and ends up back in people's houses which are even more confined.

You can’t say those restrictions didn’t make any difference. Because there’s no parallel universe in which we cracked on as usual without any restrictions and ended up with exactly the same case numbers (which seems like a very unlikely scenario).

I’m sure it did make some difference. But evidently not enough of a difference to stop us being the omicron capital of the world. Feckless eejits that we are.