SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Am I alone in thinking that may is far too soon to lift the lockdown? France and Spain are just asking for a second spike at this point, or is there data to suggest that enough people have been infected and are now immune?
Without testing and appropriate isolation I don't see how May works. Even from just from the view of public confidence. Then start considering the vulnerable. It's going to be a mess.
He is a historicist I'd say. Most Christians think apocalyptic literature like Revelations is allegorical - symbolic of a struggle between good and evil. Historicists vary but many think it is predictive of future events. They also like the number 7 a great deal. And the 4th Horseman of the apocalypse is means to be death/plague. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historicist_interpretations_of_the_Book_of_Revelation
There will be loads of trying to align words in revelations with current events but essentially revelations predicts a plague and Covid-19 is a plague. QED.
Last edited:
Well....
Unless you lockdown until we have a vaccine you're asking for a second spike. In the UK we've currently got millions of people, with no immunity, getting more unhealthy due to being stuck indoors who are asking to get infected as soon as we end the lockdown. Which any intelligent person acknowledges will slowly begin to lift in three weeks. As the economy cannot take much more.
Government is going to pour every possible resource into formulating a plan that ends the lockdown but doesn't overwhelm the NHS as that's the only sane and sensible way of dealing with this.
We have to grow up and accept that people will be dying of COVID-19 until we get a vaccine and it's as simple as that.
Going to be some difficult conversations to be had.
Seems like he knows a guy...
When you pump fear into a public it's almost possible to extract.
The elderly and vulnerable are going to have to make choice this year. They are either going to have to isolate completely or take the mortal risk of exiting their home. As we're not locking down until we get a vaccine.
We've started. It's not fun.
Consider family visits as well and how to handle.
So we are just going to sacrifice the old and vulnerable.
NOT THE SOCIETY i want to be part off.
I don't disagree but the point about low pay in the care home scenario is that these workers end up being in a multiple facilities, which increases the likelihood that COIVD19 will enter multiple facilities.
These facilities are high risk for respiratory outbreaks at the best of times so it's not surprising that they've been hit hard by this but if PSWs were able to subsist by working at only one facility it would reduce the risk and impact of this kind of outbreak.
I usually volunteer at such a place and they went into a staff only lockdown a week before they closed schools here. They're careful but the rotation of staff is a big gap.
It's back to where we were a few months ago. Awful, especially in the states.
Lifting the lockdowns now will only give us short term gain and make things worse long term.
Of all those currently infected in the world only 25% have recovered!
Some 25 percent of coronavirus patients worldwide have become better, according to the Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering live tracker.
The tracker shows that of the 2,167,955 confirmed cases around the globe, 146,055 have died while 550,987 recovered.
That leaves 1,470,913 - or 67 percent - still sick.
That also means 6.7 percent of patients have died from the virus.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ex...ve-recovered-from-coronavirus-news-latest/amp
Of all those currently infected in the world only 25% have recovered!
Some 25 percent of coronavirus patients worldwide have become better, according to the Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering live tracker.
The tracker shows that of the 2,167,955 confirmed cases around the globe, 146,055 have died while 550,987 recovered.
That leaves 1,470,913 - or 67 percent - still sick.
That also means 6.7 percent of patients have died from the virus.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ex...ve-recovered-from-coronavirus-news-latest/amp
And imagine all those who dont know they have underlying medical conditions.
Will literally be gambling with their lives.
Nonsense of a stat.
Take the UK. We've no idea how many people in the UK have actually had the virus because the majority of people who get the virus don't get sick enough to require hospital treatment so don't get tested.
Engage your brain for Christ sake.
So you want full lockdown until we get a vaccine?
That's an admirable intention but it's a folly to seriously believe in.
So how about we grow up? Then talk about a sensible exit plan that'll protect the old and vulnerable?
There is far too many people out there with the attitude that it will never happen to me and they will only understand it when someone dies because of them or they die themselves
WHO have already said there is no indication that those previously infected have immunity from this. Whose to say a 2nd infection wont be worse!
Are you prepared to be a Guinea pig?
You didn't reply to my post, on why this time is different (the sign which is the vaccine) compared to the smallpox vaccine where everyone got vaccinated?
I want a fulllock down until the lives of the public can be protected.
Anything else is wrong.
We also dont know who the vulnerable are, who knows if they havevunderlying medical conditions?
Even A cut in your finger puts pressure on your immune system!
Yes.
I think it is just WHO being cautious after repeatedly fecking up earlier. There is a lot of indication that people who have got infected will have some immunity (at least short to mid-term).
it's a nightmare.
I don't envy those who are tasked to make these decisions.
However since no one with serviceable grey matter believes we're in lockdown until we get a vaccine, we need to put on our grown up pants and make these big decisions.
How we're managing the period between lockdown and vaccine is an enormous decision and I'm afraid we can do relatively little to influence our decision makers. We just have to trust whatever they decide and be ready to punish them at the ballot box if they make a mistake.
Sorry, are you suggesting WHO have it wrong and you know better?
Insulting another member
We're all Guinea pigs.
This is a brand new virus and experts are flummoxed. We're all flying blind here.
An admirable but criminally naive position
We're not locking down until we get a vaccine. So go upstairs. Hunt for your grown up pants. The take part in the conversation about how we reach the optimal middle ground between lockdown and vaccine.
The economy simply cannot cope with a full lockdown until we get a vaccine. Get over it.
A gradual loosening of restrictions may be possible but certainly not now. Otherwise you will be back to square one and have to fully lock down again. Especially in countries like the US and UK who have done such a bad job to date.
More or less. Same as when I suggested that using masks actually helps. Or banning people from travelling from hot zones helps (two common sense things that WHO categorically denied).
But being more serious and more precise, the closest disease to this has been SARS, and the antibodies remained in infected people for around 3 years. For MERS (another novel coronavirus, the next most similar thing to this), the antibodies were detected for around one year. For human coronaviruses, the antibodies get detected from a few months to a few years after the infection. So, there is plenty to suggest that there will be some immunity.
When WHO is being cautious what they are really saying is that 'there is no definite proof that the antibodies will stay for some time for everyone - cause you know, there has not bee some time since people get infected and healed - and even if that is the case, we do not know for how long they will be effective'. Nevertheless, Chinese studies showed around 70-80% of healed patients had enough antibodies after being healed (though obviously there are still some unknowns). However, with this behaving similar to SARS, I guess it is likely that we will have some immunity after infection, though it might not be for a long time, and almost certainly won't be lifelong immunity.
The economy will suffer more when inevitably we see a 2nd spike which has the potential to be worse.
We know nothing about this virus, taking a leap of faith and hopping for the best is foolish.
I'm not saying now. The UK is in lockdown for the three weeks at least.
However, no serious person believes that the UK can stay languishing in our current state indefinitely.
So we need to be grown and discuss what's next.
It's really not that hard.
There is lots of evidence that antibodies are produced that will give immunity. How long that immunity will last is unknown and can be quite variable with viruses. I'd say WHO are just being cautious because people think it is a given that we can make a vaccine.
What are your qualifications to make such assumptions.
Im sorry, but id rather take advice from the experts, who right now say there is no evidence to support any immunity to the virus.
They are the experts not you, why should we now ignore the experts?
Too many iffs, maybes etc
This is why its foolish to remove any lockdowns until we know more.
The down side is that discussing it makes it seem imminent, which it shouldn't be. The up side is it gives people a view of the other side. A couple of months more at a minimum in the hardest hit countries isn't unlikely.
Listen, I'm not advocating going back to normal in three weeks.
However we need to get serious. We're not lockingdown until we get vaccine. So we're going to enter limbo sooner rather than later. Which will be a 'new normal'. The discussion has to be about what that new normal is.
How do you think people are getting better if there aren't any antibodies produced in response to infection?
Recovered coronavirus patients are testing positive again.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cn...avirus-retesting-positive-intl-hnk/index.html
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cn...avirus-retesting-positive-intl-hnk/index.html
I am not advocating for removing lockdowns. But there is lots of evidence that antibodies are produced that produce an immune response. That makes it likely, but not certain, that a vaccine can be made that will give us immunity for an undetermined period.
The most likely sub-optimal outcome is that we can develop a vaccine but that it fails safety testing.
Last edited:
Only 25% of those infected have recovered though, now we are seeing 2nd infections of those who recovered.
Have you read what did the experts say, or you are going by belief cause of authority?
Obviously, the experts cannot say that there is definite proof that this virus offers immunity for at least X months to at least Y percentage of people, where there haven't passed X months and there are no available antigen tests to do mass testing. As scientists, they are being cautious. And political obviously, for having fecked this up.
WHO also said that the death rate is 3.4% which looks quite laughable and an extreme conservative estimation.