SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[JMack1234]

The down side is that discussing it makes it seem imminent, which it shouldn't be. The up side is it gives people a view of the other side. A couple of months more at a minimum in the hardest hit countries isn't unlikely.

It's not immanent.

Everyone knows that UK is keeping the restrictions for the next three weeks and the lockdown currently enjoys a seismic level of public support so we are were we are.

However, we won't be here for ever. It's impossible to impose a lockdown on a people who don't want to be confined to their home. So it's imperative that the government formulate an exit plan the public can believe in and I'm not alone in thinking that. A certain Prof Ferguson agrees with me.

So again, lets get serious and discuss what post lockdown limbo we'll be cool with,

 

[Zexstream]

Have you read what did the experts say, or you are going by belief cause of authority?

Obviously, the experts cannot say that there is definite proof that this virus offers immunity for at least X months to at least Y percentage of people, where there haven't passed X months and there are no available antigen tests to do mass testing. As scientists, they are being cautious. And political obviously, for having fecked this up.

WHO also said that the death rate is 3.4% which looks quite laughable and an extreme conservative estimation.

The death rate is low because the lockdowns are working.

Its still higher than flu.

 

[Revan]

Only 25% of those infected have recovered though, now we are seeing 2nd infections of those who recovered.

Because the vast majority of them have been recently infected, so there has not been enough time to be recovered.

What is interesting is to suggest that there won't be any immunity after infection, while suggesting that somehow a vaccine might exist under those circumstances. If antibodies are not created (or last), then how is exactly a vaccine going to work?!

 

[Wibble]

Recovered coronavirus patients are testing positive again.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cn...avirus-retesting-positive-intl-hnk/index.html

1) False positives in the first test and then people actually became infected with SARS-CoV-2
2) A false positive the second time
3) Compromised immune system so can become infected again.
4) Didn't fully recover the first time so seemed to get better but then it flared up again - not a second infection.

If there are only 163 instance of possible re-infection then that is a very small proportion and the vast majority will be one of the things I listed above (and other possibilities I didn't think of).

 

[Wibble]

Because the vast majority of them have been recently infected, so there has not been enough time to be recovered.

What is interesting is to suggest that there won't be any immunity after infection, while suggesting that somehow a vaccine might exist under those circumstances. If antibodies are not created (or last), then how is exactly a vaccine going to work?!

Yes. And how did people recover if they didn't produce antibodies?

 

[Revan]

The death rate is low because the lockdowns are working.

Its still higher than flu.

What has the death rate to do with the lockdown (sure, if the medical system fails, then the death rate increases, probably at twice or so cause those who need ventilators die, but at the same time roughly half of them that need ventilators die anyway)?

The lockdown means that less people get infected, thus less deaths, not that magically the death rate goes down.

It is very likely higher than that of flu, though it is probably 3-6 times higher, rather than WHO's 34 times higher.

 

[Ian Reus]

Recovered coronavirus patients are testing positive again.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cn...avirus-retesting-positive-intl-hnk/index.html

If you read the article, you'd realise you were typing in too big and too bold a font at the time.

 

[Revan]

1) False positives in the first test and then people actually became infected with SARS-CoV-2
2) A false positive the second time
3) Compromised immune system so can become infected again.
4) Didn't fully recover the first time so seemed to get better but then it flared up again - not a second infection.

If there are only 163 instance of possible re-infection then that is a very small proportion and the vast majority will be one of the things I listed above (and other possibilities I didn't think of).

Additionally, they seem to not be contagious, with 44% of them having mild symptoms and the remaining no symptoms. Which most likely means that they were not entirely healed, so the first test was a false negative (aka, tested negative but they still had the virus on their body).

 

[caid]

I don't disagree but the point about low pay in the care home scenario is that these workers end up being in a multiple facilities, which increases the likelihood that COIVD19 will enter multiple facilities.

These facilities are high risk for respiratory outbreaks at the best of times so it's not surprising that they've been hit hard by this but if PSWs were able to subsist by working at only one facility it would reduce the risk and impact of this kind of outbreak.

I usually volunteer at such a place and they went into a staff only lockdown a week before they closed schools here. They're careful but the rotation of staff is a big gap.

Would there not be an element of a problem with a supermarket worker in the same vein? Having a second job would be fairly standard fare for them (maybe working in a care home) and you have the same individuals in two vulnerable environments for spreading it?
I get what you saying separate to my point. Is there any particular reason they dont work more hours in the one faciilty rather than spreading them across two?

 

[Wibble]

Virus did not originate from a lab in Wuhan

https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opin...professor-edward-holmes-sars-cov-2-virus.html

 

[caid]

I'm not saying now. The UK is in lockdown for the three weeks at least.

However, no serious person believes that the UK can stay languishing in our current state indefinitely.

So we need to be grown and discuss what's next.

It's really not that hard.

When you have the facilities for testing and contact tracing, ideally getting the infection levels as low as possible in the mean time to facilitate that.
So if you open childcare or schools for instance you know from testing what effect its having. Maybe you expect the infection rate is going to be pretty bad but for whatever reason its not and it lets you know you can widen the lifting of restrictions. Or you realise its far worse than you expected and you reinstate the lock before it gets out of control and you have nationwide lockdown again and find an alternative way to manage.
There'll probably be a bit of back and forth and experimenting for a while - but you'll have dozens of countries testing different strategies and i think we'll figure out a way to manage it before too long.

 

[Wibble]

This is a brand new virus and experts are flummoxed. We're all flying blind here.

It is a novel virus but we aren't flying blind and experts aren't flummoxed.

 

[Sky1981]

@Sky1981 predicted WWIII earlier, so maybe we are all doomed.

Who knows. The EU was murdering one another less than a century ago. The US and Germany are now ally.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

Would there not be an element of a problem with a supermarket worker in the same vein? Having a second job would be fairly standard fare for them (maybe working in a care home) and you have the same individuals in two vulnerable environments for spreading it?
I get what you saying separate to my point. Is there any particular reason they dont work more hours in the one faciilty rather than spreading them across two?

I'd say it's less likely with the supermarket job because employers can hire anyone for that role. PSWs need at least some training or experience as well as a police background check so that limits who can do that work.

Overtime rules might play a factor in keeping people from working more hours at one facility. It could also be scheduling. However they are scheduled and paid, though, it's clearly not enough as not many people are eager to work more than 40 hours a week if they can help it.

 

[Ludens the Red]

I'm not saying now. The UK is in lockdown for the three weeks at least.

However, no serious person believes that the UK can stay languishing in our current state indefinitely.

So we need to be grown and discuss what's next.

It's really not that hard.

The problem is when you actually sit down and think about things, and this is going to be negative ... but people are fecked as in seriously fecked.

everything is actually a lose lose situation. It's like a script from a saw movie.

Say we go for 'gradual lockdown release' if we loosen restrictions, no mass gatherings etc. yeah sure kids are back in school, some businesses open up again. But then what about all the businesses that require 'mass gatherings' to basically function .
The businesses that require huge numbers of staffing levels, what happens to these staff members when the furlough inevitably stops and if it doesn't, who is paying for it?

There's a gigantic domino effect - less people spending money - less revenue- staff cuts. You're talking thousand upon thousands of working class people left jobless and unable to feed their families.

If you come out of lockdown and go for Belarus mode. People are gonna drop like flies. Nhs will be fecked.

Other option, completely restrict the elderly and those with health conditions from leaving their home.
You're basically imprisoning a large portion of the country.

Or option four, Pogues theory of the human race being wiped out.

Yeah we're fecked. But at least Liverpool probably won't win the league. And even if they do there'll be no fans there to see it.

 

[Dancfc]

I want a fulllock down until the lives of the public can be protected.

A full long term lockdown doesn't protect the lives of the public, unless you think people can feed their kids on monopoly money?

 

[Organic Potatoes]

He is a historicist I'd say. Most Christians think apocalyptic literature like Revelations is allegorical - symbolic of a struggle between good and evil. Historicists vary but many think it is predictive of future events. They also like the number 7 a great deal. And the 4th Horseman of the apocalypse is means to be death/plague. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historicist_interpretations_of_the_Book_of_Revelation

There will be loads of trying to align words in revelations with current events but essentially revelations predicts a plague and Covid-19 is a plague. QED.

Can sort of confirm. Family that belongs to a sola scriptura type Christian faith are begging me to come back to the congregation. They think this is a sign, ignoring all the times the end-of-days predictions have been wrong before. But they‘re intent to line this up with the book of Revelations, along with other tidbits from Daniel, Isaiah, and others from the Prophets.

Combine that with people showing up to state government houses in the US with AR-15s, and it’s getting weird out there.

 

[Dancfc]

WHO have already said there is no indication that those previously infected have immunity from this. Whose to say a 2nd infection wont be worse!

Are you prepared to be a Guinea pig?

Even if this virus ran free 250k out of a population of 66.6m in the UK were projected to die. Even in those circumstances the odds are still in any one person's favour.

 

[Wibble]

Can sort of confirm. Family that belongs to a sola scriptura type Christian faith are begging me to come back to the congregation. They think this is a sign, ignoring all the times the end-of-days predictions have been wrong before. But they‘re intent to line this up with the book of Revelations, along with other tidbits from Daniel, Isaiah, and others from the Prophets.

Combine that with people showing up to state government houses in the US with AR-15s, and it’s getting weird out there.

I wonder why Covid-19 isn't just killing sinners as the rightous are meant to be left alone in the end of days?

 

[Wibble]

You have to have community transmission under control before you lift restrictions otherwise you will have to start full restrictions again very soon and extend the economic problems not reduce them.

Even here in Australia where we are doing better than all but NZ we aren't considering any change for another 4 weeks with no guarantees we will change much even then. A good decision because we have R below 1 in all states but Tasmania (despite them being more locked down than other states) but it doesn't take much to cause a jump in R. Once we get community transmission under control and hopefully see a further decrease in cases then maybe we can look at reducing restrictions.

What is certain is that when we reduce restrictions it is going to have to be a slow step by step process with trail and error involved. And then if monitoring suggest we went to fats things will have to change back quickly. This could take months and some restrictions may remain much longer term.

 

[sammsky1]

Guardian/Observer has also gone big on a investigative report about UK unpreparedness today.

Equally damning of Johnson led Conservative Government as they report virtually the same as the Sunday Times piece.

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[Lj82]

Seems to me that Covid-19 should have been absolutely tearing through South America, sub-Saharan Africa and tropical Asia by now. I know numbers may be dodgy and all that, but surely we’d be hearing of major outbreaks by now if this virus is as potent in tropical climates as in more temperate regions? Or maybe I’m missing some major news.

It's raging in Singapore. I really don't see how the weather affects it

 

[Revan]

You have to have community transmission under control before you lift restrictions otherwise you will have to start full restrictions again very soon and extend the economic problems not reduce them.

Even here in Australia where we are doing better than all but NZ we aren't considering any change for another 4 weeks with no guarantees we will change much even then. A good decision because we have R below 1 in all states but Tasmania (despite them being more locked down than other states) but it doesn't take much to cause a jump in R. Once we get community transmission under control and hopefully see a further decrease in cases then maybe we can look at reducing restrictions.

What is certain is that when we reduce restrictions it is going to have to be a slow step by step process with trail and error involved. And then if monitoring suggest we went to fats things will have to change back quickly. This could take months and some restrictions may remain much longer term.

Opening without having community transmission under control is madness. And you cannot have it under control when there are hundreds of thousands of people infected, but just a few tens of thousands of tests per day (most Western countries).

In all honestly, the lockdown should last until the end of next month at earliest, and the number of tests should significantly increase, while also start doing tracing and quarantining.

 

[Shakesy]

The economy will suffer more when inevitably we see a 2nd spike which has the potential to be worse.

We know nothing about this virus, taking a leap of faith and hopping for the best is foolish.

At least all of us can see how China fares in reopening the economy. Any vicious second wave will warn the others not to come out of lockdown too soon. Then there are Italy, Spain and Germany. In fact, my country (SA) can learn from Asia, Europe and the US.

 

[bri2013]

Probably best not not post in a thread full of experts!

 

[Wibble]

Opening without having community transmission under control is madness. And you cannot have it under control when there are hundreds of thousands of people infected, but just a few tens of thousands of tests per day (most Western countries).

In all honestly, the lockdown should last until the end of next month at earliest, and the number of tests should significantly increase, while also start doing tracing and quarantining.

Agreed.

 

[Wibble]

It's raging in Singapore. I really don't see how the weather affects it

I think there are numerous factors involved not all of which are yet fully understood. In temperate climates cold weather means people stay indoors more and windows are often closed more so community spread is more frequent. Cold weather increases mucus production so any virus around has a good place to live for longer and mucus can increase coughing and sneezing, so more people are infected. It is possible that temperature affects virus behavior and/or reproduction and it is also possible that our immune systems works less well in winter. Tropical areas do have flus and colds but they tend to be more spread out throughout the year.

 

[The United]

It's raging in Singapore. I really don't see how the weather affects it

I heard it is getting pretty bad now there.

Myanmar has like about 107 as of right now. About 50-60 of them were from a super spreader who came back from Singapore then he went into some religion event and spread it pretty badly. The country had about 23 before that and it was a week ago.

 

[redshaw]

Going to be interesting to see how other European countries open up. Mid May to June is a time I thought it would happen due to the length of time people could tolerate but if it's still 200-400 deaths and 2-3k cases a day, that's still a lot, might seem low compared to the highs of 950. China ground it down to zero new cases and deaths.

I hope and expect peoples changed behavior helps in the work place and each country has extensive contact tracing soon to inform those infected they shouldn't be going to work and quick testing results. Might be possible to keep the numbers low and get some work done but i wonder at what point does another lockdown come.

For my mum who has underlying conditions, it will be great to see people back to work. The narrow footpaths are cluttered with families of 4-6 people and heavy breathing and coughing joggers, cyclists stopping or going slowly up hills while gasping, it's become impossible for her to go for a walk or visit the park sadly.

 

[Wibble]

I heard it is getting pretty bad now there.

942 new cases yesterday of which 920 were migrant workers who tend to live in very packed conditions.

 

[rcoobc]

Going to be interesting to see how other European countries open up. Mid May to June is a time I thought it would happen due to the length of time people could tolerate but if it's still 200-400 deaths and 2-3k cases a day, that's still a lot, might seem low compared to the highs of 950. China ground it down to zero new cases and deaths.

I hope and expect peoples changed behavior helps in the work place and each country has extensive contact tracing soon to inform those infected they shouldn't be going to work and quick testing results. Might be possible to keep the numbers low and get some work done but i wonder at what point does another lockdown come.

For my mum who has underlying conditions, it will be great to see people back to work. The narrow footpaths are cluttered with families of 4-6 people and heavy breathing and coughing joggers, cyclists stopping or going slowly up hills while gasping, it's become impossible for her to go for a walk or visit the park sadly.

The important thing is to keep the R below below 1.0 in the general population

I think the revolt will slowly reopen but not everything will be the same. Pubs and clubs should remain shut. Sporting events should be behind closed doors. Shopping around be 2m distance and gloves and masks worn.

Do that and see if R remains below 1.0. if so you are in for a winner.

Sad thing is if the UK government had shut down a week earlier for the same 5 week period, we'd have something like half the number of deaths and infections we do now. Maybe less

 

[Organic Potatoes]

I think there are numerous factors involved not all of which are yet fully understood. In temperate climates cold weather means people stay indoors more and windows are often closed more so community spread is more frequent. Cold weather increases mucus production so any virus around has a good place to live for longer and mucus can increase coughing and sneezing, so more people are infected. It is possible that temperature affects virus behavior and/or reproduction and it is also possible that our immune systems works less well in winter. Tropical areas do have flus and colds but they tend to be more spread out throughout the year.

This is something I’m not seeing enough discussion on, at least in my little bubble stateside. We’re keen for obvious reasons to start up American football activities but the time of year we traditionally start the season is before flu season, so how do you gauge the possible resurgence of this in the northern hemisphere next winter?

It may seem trivial, opening up the NFL, but it is a snapshot of the broader pressures we face going forward. We don’t know what we are getting into yet come the cold winds next autumn.

 

[Penna]

One of the most concerning things I've read in this thread.

As a Christian who can't have vaccinations due to autoimmune problems, I'm doubly concerned!

 

[Wibble]

I agree with you to a degree, but let us just wait and see what happens, in the coming months. Being a Christian I have been expecting there to come a time when the whole world becomes evil and when people have to have some kind of mark or whatever to be able to remain a part of society. Could it be a vaccine? I have no idea. But I do know that the World is going to be different from now on.

I think you need to calm down. There will be no end of days and we won't be marking people.

 

[senorgregster]

This is something I’m not seeing enough discussion on, at least in my little bubble stateside. We’re keen for obvious reasons to start up American football activities but the time of year we traditionally start the season is before flu season, so how do you gauge the possible resurgence of this in the northern hemisphere next winter?

It may seem trivial, opening up the NFL, but it is a snapshot of the broader pressures we face going forward. We don’t know what we are getting into yet come the cold winds next autumn.

I don't see how contact sports start up soon. Also with the NFL, where the majority of players are black, surely we must first fully understand the disproportionate burden of covid19 mortality seen in the black community?

 

[Organic Potatoes]

I don't see how contact sports start up soon. Also with the NFL, where the majority of players are black, surely we must first fully understand the disproportionate burden of covid19 mortality seen in the black community?

Well, a lot of that in the US is due to underlying factors relating to poverty and access to healthcare. You can see this in New Orleans and Detroit.

But...there is a lot to unpack there, so you can forgive me if I don’t take it all on at the moment.

 

[Revan]

I think you need to calm down. There will be no end of days and we won't be marking people.

He avoided my question of why this vaccine is different from the one of smallpox where the entire world got it (so they got marked). Or you know MMR, or tetanus, or hepatitis B, or polio, all vaccines that are as popular as this is gonna be.

I don't think that he really is clear on what he is saying.

 

[SteveJ]

Put out more flags!

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[Revaulx]

He is a historicist I'd say. Most Christians think apocalyptic literature like Revelations is allegorical - symbolic of a struggle between good and evil. Historicists vary but many think it is predictive of future events. They also like the number 7 a great deal. And the 4th Horseman of the apocalypse is means to be death/plague. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historicist_interpretations_of_the_Book_of_Revelation

There will be loads of trying to align words in revelations with current events but essentially revelations predicts a plague and Covid-19 is a plague. QED.

Absolutely. There’s a school of thought that if it was indeed intended to predict a future event, it would be the fall of the Roman Empire, but there’s no way the writer was looking forward any further than that.

I don’t want to fall foul of our great and marvellous mods by derailing the thread any further, but searching Peter Cook End Of The World on YouTube will give people a good idea of a contemporary futurist interpretation.

 

[vidic blood & sand]

He is a historicist I'd say. Most Christians think apocalyptic literature like Revelations is allegorical - symbolic of a struggle between good and evil. Historicists vary but many think it is predictive of future events. They also like the number 7 a great deal. And the 4th Horseman of the apocalypse is means to be death/plague. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historicist_interpretations_of_the_Book_of_Revelation

There will be loads of trying to align words in revelations with current events but essentially revelations predicts a plague and Covid-19 is a plague. QED.

There are all kinds of eschatological views held by many in the christian world. Covid 19 is a relatively mild plague compared to others in the past, and so would seem to be fairly insignificant from a scriptural perspective.
Plagues prophesied in the the last days are judgements (great tribulation). Churches are divided in their interpretation of what scripture teaches in regard to the events leading up to, and during, the great tribulation. Evangelicals mostly fall into two eschatological theological camps. Some believe the church is raptured (Christians go to heaven) before the great tribulation, and so they obviously would not believe that Covid 19 is a judgement, because Christians are still here and catching the virus as well. Others believe the church is here on the earth during the great tribulation, but are not judged by God. It would be similar to the plagues which fell on Egypt in Moses time, none of the Hebrews were harmed. Again, this current pandemic does not fit that theology either. The religion thread is a good place to discus this further if interested.