SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Smores

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Are there any real risks with what appears to be a very rushed vaccination program? Especially considering we're talking about mass vaccination?

I get a flu jab every year so I'm certainly not anti-vac but I'd be a tad concerned with this if it appears within the year.
 

11101

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The EU has set out the rules for any apps that operate on it's territory. Users will input anonymous health data and GPS will be blocked, the phones will just record all bluetooth signals they pick up on their travels and then alert you if one of them tests positive for the virus. Installation is voluntary and all apps must be able to communicate with any other across Europe. The voluntary bit sounds worrying with some populations thinking they know better than everybody else.

Italy is rolling their national version out in the next couple of weeks.
 

VP89

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Are there any real risks with what appears to be a very rushed vaccination program? Especially considering we're talking about mass vaccination?

I get a flu jab every year so I'm certainly not anti-vac but I'd be a tad concerned with this if it appears within the year.
I suppose the biggest risk is that it doesn't help(!) Either the virus mutates or the vaccine was too rushed to be effective for everyone.

I'm also curious as to whether countries such as Germany having far fewer cases/deaths exposes them to a second wave more when the lock-down ends. I know us getting hit this bad is terrible, but I'm hoping that means the silver lining is we wouldn't be victim of a second wave. But I'm not too educated on the "herd immunity" theory so I can't speak for it I guess.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Are there any real risks with what appears to be a very rushed vaccination program? Especially considering we're talking about mass vaccination?

I get a flu jab every year so I'm certainly not anti-vac but I'd be a tad concerned with this if it appears within the year.
The regulators will do their best to fast track approval but ultimately they won’t let anything on the market that isn’t safe and effective. We’re MUCH more likely to have to wait several years for a good vaccine than have a bad one rushed out quickly.
 

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Gah. Pay-walled. I actually ordered a pulse oximeter off Amazon a while back. It’s the best way to know if you need to go into hospital. I was paranoid about getting sick but not knowing if I was sick enough to need to be hospitalised. Knowing my own O2 sats would be a big help if it ever comes to that. They’re pretty cheap too.
As somebody who doesn't have medical training, even if I was to buy one of them, how would I know when I'm in "danger?" Does it simply say, "ok" or "too low?" Or would you need an understanding of the numbers involved?
 

golden_blunder

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I don't know, I can only assume that it's because there isn't actually a travel ban in a lot of countries. It's something that's highly discouraged but not it's not exactly a ban. There was a poster in here a few pages back who flew home to the UK from Switzerland but a few posts before him, someone from Switzerland/Italy claimed the Swiss borders were completely closed apart from key workers. Which is clearly not completely true. Could they have possibly come over to Ireland on the ferry rather than flying? Perhaps they are dual citizens or something? (Unsure if that can actually be a thing with Ireland/UK, just asking).
So it seems that the ferry route is still open between U.K. and Ireland. That would tie in with people seeing a lot of English tourists with caravans too. Crazy!
 

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I love this thread guys have been following it religiously for weeks now it has become part of my daily routine to read through the 4-10 pages of new posts. I say daily, it was nightly but that was not helping my anxiety issues so it's become my breakfast reading material.

I avoid "the news" as much as possible and have done for years so a source like this with reasoned and logical debate and discussion has been invaluable.


I think the most likely scenario is that this ends up as a perennial epidemic, peaking every year, for the next few years. Possibly indefinitely.

There’s a good chance it will get less lethal over time and I do think we’ll eventually develop medicines that reduce mortality. I also think we’ll eventually develop some sort of useful vaccine (which may need annual boosters) but this will take several years.
Sounds right to me. I do have some confidence that we will get a vaccine sooner than several years, with the proviso that it is far from a foregone conclusion.
I am really pinning my hopes on this being an unprecedented and universal situation that means not only is science naturally at it's most advanced point but that there has never been as much urgency and value attached to developing a vaccine that we can find a forumla in a fraction of what to this point has been considered standard time frame.
 
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lynchie

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I think the most likely scenario is that this ends up as a perennial epidemic, peaking every year, for the next few years. Possibly indefinitely.

There’s a good chance it will get less lethal over time and I do think we’ll eventually develop medicines that reduce mortality. I also think we’ll eventually develop some sort of useful vaccine (which may need annual boosters) but this will take several years.
On a related note, do you think those medicines will be available in over-the-counter versions? Would be nice to imagine that in the future most of us can deal with a case of this by a couple of days in bed with something equivalent to paracetemol that we have a stock of in the bathroom cabinet.
 

Pogue Mahone

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As somebody who doesn't have medical training, even if I was to buy one of them, how would I know when I'm in "danger?" Does it simply say, "ok" or "too low?" Or would you need an understanding of the numbers involved?
It’s pretty easy to understand. It’s the % of oxygenated blood. Would usually be 95%+. You can check your own baseline when you get it. Then if you get sick, feel the infection has gone to your chest and your sats start dropping (say <90%) then that’s a warning that you need to go to hospital (or at least call 111 or your GP)
 

Buster15

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A waste of time and some noisy statement for headlines, it needs to be done at an international level. There's no civil jurisdiction of such claims in US courts.
Understood. But I have mentioned before that I would like to see a proper investigation into exactly how this virus started and whoever or whatever held accountable. Both for the huge suffering as well as the economic problems.
 

Pogue Mahone

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On a related note, do you think those medicines will be available in over-the-counter versions? Would be nice to imagine that in the future most of us can deal with a case of this by a couple of days in bed with something equivalent to paracetemol that we have a stock of in the bathroom cabinet.
I’d say that’s extremely unlikely. None of the systemic antivirals developed so far are available OTC. To be honest, availability as a tablet (as opposed to intravenous) would be the best we could hope for.

I also think they will probably only be used in hospitalised patients anyway. If you’re not sick enough to go to hospital then your best bet is just sweating it out. Antiviral often come with pretty unpleasant side effects. We’ve had antivirals for flu for ages but the vast majority of people would never have taken them.
 

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It’s pretty easy to understand. It’s the % of oxygenated blood. Would usually be 95%+. You can check your own baseline when you get it. Then if you get sick, feel the infection has gone to your chest and your sats start dropping (say <90%) then that’s a warning that you need to go to hospital (or at least call 111 or your GP)
Thanks, got it?
Is there any you would recommend on Amazon?
 

RobinLFC

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Thanks, got it?
Is there any you would recommend on Amazon?
@Pogue Mahone can you recommend an oximeter? I wouldn’t know what to look for.

also would I need to know my baseline first?
I have one on my Garmin watch, so I'd guess most sport watches or Apple watch / different smartwatches have that kind of option these days. Just need to put the watch on and it indicates the level within a few minutes, usually I'm at 95% or something like that.

Dunno if you want a real oximeter though.
 

Alabaster Codify7

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So it seems that the ferry route is still open between U.K. and Ireland. That would tie in with people seeing a lot of English tourists with caravans too. Crazy!

There we go then, makes sense. As I said before, the government have 'strongly discouraged' non-essential travel yet it's not a ban. If you have a flight booked somewhere and the airline hasn't cancelled it, you can go. I mean, the vast majority have cancelled of course, goes without saying.

Its similar to 'at risk' people thinking they're forbidden from leaving the house during lockdown. It's strongly advised that they stay indoors but it's not law. My mother keeps dropping that into conversation - "oh I wish I could go for a little walk in the evening but I'm not allowed to leave the house". I keep trying to tell her that when I do her food shopping, I see a good few people much older than her doing theirs because some people have no choice. Same goes for my evening hikes, I often see couples in their 70s and 80s (judging by their appearance) going fro a walk. For her, and many others, it's been processed as law rather than a strong suggestion.
 

golden_blunder

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There we go then, makes sense. As I said before, the government have 'strongly discouraged' non-essential travel yet it's not a ban. If you have a flight booked somewhere and the airline hasn't cancelled it, you can go. I mean, the vast majority have cancelled of course, goes without saying.

Its similar to 'at risk' people thinking they're forbidden from leaving the house during lockdown. It's strongly advised that they stay indoors but it's not law. My mother keeps dropping that into conversation - "oh I wish I could go for a little walk in the evening but I'm not allowed to leave the house". I keep trying to tell her that when I do her food shopping, I see a good few people much older than her doing theirs because some people have no choice. Same goes for my evening hikes, I often see couples in their 70s and 80s (judging by their appearance) going fro a walk. For her, and many others, it's been processed as law rather than a strong suggestion.
Personally I think the messaging needs to be clearer and stronger. But that’s just my opinion.

I think it’s crazy that Ireland are accepting incoming ferries full of Easter tourists from the U.K. which has a much higher spread of infection
 

11101

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I don't know, I can only assume that it's because there isn't actually a travel ban in a lot of countries. It's something that's highly discouraged but not it's not exactly a ban. There was a poster in here a few pages back who flew home to the UK from Switzerland but a few posts before him, someone from Switzerland/Italy claimed the Swiss borders were completely closed apart from key workers. Which is clearly not completely true. Could they have possibly come over to Ireland on the ferry rather than flying? Perhaps they are dual citizens or something? (Unsure if that can actually be a thing with Ireland/UK, just asking).
That was me. Borders are closed between Italy and Switzerland to most people, but as a resident/citizen of another country you are always allowed to travel home if you can find a way to do it.
 

Kopral Jono

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Whenever news on corona vaccine comes out I tend to get a bit confused. The Oxford people are rather confident that one could be ready by autumn, some are saying we'll have one by summer or late next year whilst others are of the opinion that vaccines for coronaviruses are incredibly hard to develop and that there may not be a vaccine at all.

Could someone who knows a bit about this explain why there have been differences in opinion even amongst the best experts out there?
 

Pogue Mahone

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Well here is my second question, if everybody gets vaccinated at once, wouldn't the virus just die out? It came from a bat, its not as if its easily caught from nature etc
The smallpox vaccine wiped out smallpox completely. That’s the best case scenario. Permanent immunity after being vaccinated will do that. Extremely unlikely this would happen now.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Whenever news on corona vaccine comes out I tend to get a bit confused. The Oxford people are rather confident that one could be ready by autumn, some are saying we'll have one by summer or late next year whilst others are of the opinion that vaccines for coronaviruses are incredibly hard to develop and that there may not be a vaccine at all.

Could someone who knows a bit about this explain why there have been differences in opinion even amongst the best experts out there?
All those opinions could be correct. They’re not actually disagreeing with each other. It’s possible we could have a vaccine this year. It’s more likely we won’t get one for another year or two but it’s also possible we’ll never get one.
 

0le

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Whenever news on corona vaccine comes out I tend to get a bit confused. The Oxford people are rather confident that one could be ready by autumn, some are saying we'll have one by summer or late next year whilst others are of the opinion that vaccines for coronaviruses are incredibly hard to develop and that there may not be a vaccine at all.

Could someone who knows a bit about this explain why there have been differences in opinion even amongst the best experts out there?
This is science. There is always a difference of opinion in research because it is at the very limit of our understanding of nature. You will find the same issues in any field.

Right now you will have to accept we just don't know if a vaccine can be found, and if one is found and developed, we don't know how long that research and development process will take. Everything is based on educated guesses.
 

Alabaster Codify7

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Personally I think the messaging needs to be clearer and stronger. But that’s just my opinion.

I think it’s crazy that Ireland are accepting incoming ferries full of Easter tourists from the U.K. which has a much higher spread of infection
It is yeah, I personally think it should have been a firm 30day travel ban in and out of every country, no exceptions. But it wasn't, and it isn't, so hey ho.


That was me. Borders are closed between Italy and Switzerland to most people, but as a resident/citizen of another country you are always allowed to travel home if you can find a way to do it.

It was you, yeah, couldn't remember the poster's name. Nor can I remember the name of the other poster who flew home but it definitely wasn't (or didnt sound like) a repatriation situation. It seemed like just a 'maybe I should fly home for a bit' situation. Do you think the border for Italy is quite possibly a different story altogether due to the severity of covid19 in Italy? I wonder if the same border measures are in place for other countries that border Switzerland.
 

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With 828 yesterday it's quite a jump from 441 but seems like the 441 taking into account weekend lag was really low so it's look more like 6xx each day, hopefully. The graph is also subject to a lot of change and we've had 4.5-5.5k cases each day recently to unfold.

We're going to need a week or two of lower numbers before exit plans can be talked about. Other countries did this but some simply pointing at other countries and saying "we not got one they have" without understanding the different timeline and need to see evidence of a prolonged drop. Said yesterday before the 828, it was only a few days ago we had 888, then yesterday 828. No-one was screaming for an exit plan after Spain and Italy were around the peak.
 
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Alabaster Codify7

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Yeah the past few days will definitely shoot up but that graph does suggest that we are seeing a slow but steady decline in daily deaths, which must be good news surely and a positive sign.
 

0le

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With 828 yesterday it's quite a jump from 441 but seems like the 441 taking into account weekend lag was really low so it's look more like 6xx each day, hopefully. The graph is also subject to a lot of change and we've had 4.5-5.5k cases each day recently to unfold.
Just to point out, the graph is from NHS England. 828 deaths was reported for the UK which includes England, Scotland, Wales and NI [UK Gov].
 

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Yep, it's a scare-mongering headline. Of course infections are coming back when lockdown ends, anyone who thinks a country is going to hit zero deaths and zero infections then get on with their normal lives is a child, basically. I hate this type of scare-mongering journalism. We all know its here for a long time, that's not the point.
How is it scare mongering to report facts? The actual rate of infection that Germany operates with and the warnings that officials derive from it?
 

0le

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How is it scare mongering to report facts? The actual rate of infection that Germany operates with and the warnings that officials derive from it?
Perhaps the headline could have been worded better. The initial headline was:
"Warning after infection rate rises in Germany as lockdown measures eased "

Maybe it could have said this:
"Increase in infection rate to be expected after lockdown measures relaxed"

The first title makes it sound as if this was something unexpected and has come as a surprise. The second title makes is clear it was expected and does not come as a surprise.
 

11101

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It was you, yeah, couldn't remember the poster's name. Nor can I remember the name of the other poster who flew home but it definitely wasn't (or didnt sound like) a repatriation situation. It seemed like just a 'maybe I should fly home for a bit' situation. Do you think the border for Italy is quite possibly a different story altogether due to the severity of covid19 in Italy? I wonder if the same border measures are in place for other countries that border Switzerland.
It's not really a repatriation situation. You just need a real reason to travel between the two countries - essential work, health or extenuating circumstances are the three accepted. In theory i could use my British passport, Italian residency and Swiss work to travel between the three places as much as i like.
 

Kopral Jono

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All those opinions could be correct. They’re not actually disagreeing with each other. It’s possible we could have a vaccine this year. It’s more likely we won’t get one for another year or two but it’s also possible we’ll never get one.
This is science. There is always a difference of opinion in research because it is at the very limit of our understanding of nature. You will find the same issues in any field.

Right now you will have to accept we just don't know if a vaccine can be found, and if one is found and developed, we don't know how long that research and development process will take. Everything is based on educated guesses.
Thanks for these, but let's take the worst outcome and assume a vaccine is very hard to find in practice. Should all resources be redirected to the development of a drug that actually cures those who are infected instead? Genuine question, as you can see I'm rather clueless on this.
 

Classical Mechanic

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This is science. There is always a difference of opinion in research because it is at the very limit of our understanding of nature. You will find the same issues in any field.

Right now you will have to accept we just don't know if a vaccine can be found, and if one is found and developed, we don't know how long that research and development process will take. Everything is based on educated guesses.
Also they could just be overconfident because they are high achievers at the top of their game buoyed by the prospect of producing career defining work.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Thanks for these, but let's take the worst outcome and assume a vaccine is very hard to find in practice. Should all resources be redirected to the development of a drug that actually cures those who are infected instead? Genuine question, as you can see I'm rather clueless on this.
They’re throwing an absolute shit load of resources at developing vaccines AND treatments. Which is the right thing to do. No guarantee of success with either avenue, unfortunately. No matter how much money you spend.
 

0le

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Thanks for these, but let's take the worst outcome and assume a vaccine is very hard to find in practice. Should all resources be redirected to the development of a drug that actually cures those who are infected instead? Genuine question, as you can see I'm rather clueless on this.
You learn just as much from negative results as well as positive results. Along the way you can develop better techniques which may also have uses in other research fields.
 

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Thread

Very true, our Governments ability/track record in procuring 'goods' in particular, is very patchy. If they are buying finished products from known stock i.e. from warehouse, its not too bad, but when it involves going further back in up the chain to procure new items, not yet manufactured or not fully processed into their final stages, then we have a poor record; whether this is PPE or warships, we seem to have no idea how to project manage procurement chains beyond placing an order with the nearest /cheapest stock holder. Maybe its another lesson we shall learn, post Covid-19; however based on past evidence , I shall not hold my breath!