I know you're holding your hand up here, but I think I remember you using their repute as an appeal to authority in arguments in this thread. Thanks for bringing this info too and maybe be cautious on using rep like that in the future.
To be fair to him the Karolinska Institute is the real deal. This sort of shoddy research is completely unexpected from a place with their reputation.
It seems obvious that people rather want to read reassuring messages, but the facts are that RKI reported a jump in infection rate from 0.7 to 0.9, when the goverments target is "somewhere below 1.0" and their models suggest that 1.1 would overwhelm hospitals by October. And those easment measures have only partly been implemented on Monday, so they don't even fully really register in the data yet. I think it's absolutely something to be concerened about and people get warned all the time not to relax one bit.
I'll check this out.
Exactly this, you've explained my stance better than I could have. Bad news sells. Headlines are often decked out with harsher language or wording to grab people's attention more, I consider that to be scare-mongering personally.
Yes, there may be some truth in that.
People make mistakes, it happens. It is extremely easy to sit at home and criticise people who design and carry out experiments. Just because something appears obvious in hindsight, does not mean it was obvious at the point in time. People can also become forgetful, it may well have been obvious to them at the time, but they just forgot because there was so much to consider in a short time frame. At a guess, I imagine there is also an additional pressure to produce results because of the ongoing crisis.
Cool. Thanks. Will check it out.
I'm sorry you lost your job pal. Better luck next time eh.
A drug that cures the disease is equally hard to find and possibly very expensive to make (especially if its antivirals). Hence, they are looking at re-purposing old drugs such as hydroxychloroquine and Remdesivir. They are already regulatory approved and have readily set up manufacturing infrastructure to do the kind of mass production this world needs.
I would guess that Oxford people know best about the sort of work they have done and the possible obstacles. All of the others (not directly familiar with the work done) are merely speculating and making educated guesses based on what they think is true regarding the virus.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200421-will-we-ever-be-immune-to-covid-19
They've got a vaccine ready for its first series of human clinical trials. That trial is scheduled to run for 6 months (with a follow-up at 12 months). If the trial goes as planned, with immunity being demonstrated in the immunised group and no significant side-effects, they can say, "we've got a vaccine." That would be in the autumn.
That’s a good article. The possibility of being immune without producing antibodies makes a lot of sense. We’ve always thought kids must get asymptomatic illness but the serology data out of Iceland is finding no kids producing antibodies at all. So it’s possible they’re being exposed but not seroconverting. Cell mediated immunity can fight off infections without the need for antibodies. So sars-cov2 might be particularly vulnerable to the type of cell mediated immunity that is more active in kids than adults.
Bugger, that's actually bad news because now it means we can't distinguish between who is still able to transmit covid and who isn't.
I have just seen the preview image for that and it has already put me off.
We really shouldn't head down that path... There's already a global shortage of BCG even without the COVID-19 demand
It is clutching at straws and if it shows it helps then we will go down that path. It is not that BCG is an effective cure but what they are testing is to see if BCG controls the immune system to attack the virus at the right level and not overload the system and control the cytokine that is secreted. I think this overloading by the immune system is what kills most people and not the virus itself. This is what these trials are for.We really shouldn't head down that path... There's already a global shortage of BCG even without the COVID-19 demand
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(18)30474-1/fulltext
It was breaking news on BBC news 24 just now. Don't know if that was just England or whole of U.K though.
Heh. Up until a decade or so ago, it was part of the common child vaccine program in Norway. Nearly everyone got it at around 14. Probably wore off by now, though.
That's interesting. Old people (maybe the 75+ age group) won't have routinely had BCG as teenagers. I had it when I entered nursing and later worked as a midwife in a city where there was active TB. My heaf test mark became prominent more than once, which showed something was reacting to something.
BCG vaccine is a once a lifetime vaccination according to what I have heard.
Updated graph of deaths in England by day of death. Reported deaths were 665, 113 fewer than yesterday. Orange is a 5 day trailing average. Last 5-7 days will see large to moderate upward changes:Updated graph of deaths in England by day of death. Reported deaths were 778, 6 fewer than Saturday. Pretty confident we're on the slide now.
Orange is a 5 day trailing average. Last 5-7 days will see large to moderate upward changes:
Correction it seems now, 759 in UK.
I agree. Given there's a bank holiday in last week of May I think we'll see another two week extension up to then with perhaps a few more garden shops opened up.
Yeah, any research outcomes is useful at this moment I agree. The scientific data obtained could be used as a basis to inform other investigations, even if BCG itself may not provide a viable solution as a cure/vaccine due to its rarity.
The data in England appears to show there is already a decline (see the post above) so there is light at the end of the tunnel.
why is the system different in scotland/wales v england?
