We need a dramatic change in strategy and fastTen more dead in UK, total now at 21.
Sampling. You’d be surprised at what small samples you need to be able to create ranges with a high degree of certainty. It’s the same way we don’t need to hear from everyone in the country to get smoking prevalence statistics, but we can produce a sample with which we would have a high degree of confidence in.If 80% are getting it with 'mild' symptoms and self isolating at home, and are being told not to even report they are ill, how exactly do you think you are getting 95% certainty?
I don't think it is exactly the point though. The economy sustains us all, at a basic level its how you obtain the means to feed your children. If it completely collapses then we are fecked. Going into numerous full societal shutdowns over 18 months will have much bigger economic impacts than I think people are realising. It isn't simply a public health issue, it's much bigger than that. There's going to be a big economic hit from just the two month impact we are currently experiencing. Each shutdown will be more crippling than the last.
Who am I coming across as 'prejudist' against? Tories?Rhyme, you aren’t coming across as leftist. You’re coming across asmore prejudist, intolerant and extremist than anyone I’ve seen online discussing this. The further you move left and the further you move right, the closer you get due to the horseshoe effect of dictatorships. You’re describing people as Tory with the same flippancy and distain as the far right describe things as Jewish.
This seems a significantly shite development
Okay, then. This is the key sentence:There absolutely is such thing as key sentence. How can arguments from other side hold any water when it’s main element is currently baseless?
@Dante how responsible that decision is looking now? There’s simply too much unknowns currently around this to make such calls.This seems a significantly shite development
So, this 'herd immunity' thing then...
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Your loved ones won’t be here if they depend on social care, medicine etc. that they depend upon the economy for.Yes well lets get to 18 monthes first . Don't be expecting people to care about the economy in a years time when they are more concerned with whether they are their loved ones will be around
Do you think large economic and societal impacts can cause death and illness too? What good would there be surviving corona but starving to death?
That's it I am convinced now we should just let it burn and let the strongest survive.I don't think it is exactly the point though. The economy sustains us all, at a basic level its how you obtain the means to feed your children. If it completely collapses then we are fecked. Going into numerous full societal shutdowns over 18 months will have much bigger economic impacts than I think people are realising. It isn't simply a public health issue, it's much bigger than that. There's going to be a big economic hit from just the two month impact we are currently experiencing. Each shutdown will be more crippling than the last.
Herd immunity doesn’t mean the complete immunity of individuals, but individuals each becoming more resistant to make the spread less likely.So, this 'herd immunity' thing then...
Sampling. You’d be surprised at what small samples you need to be able to create ranges with a high degree of certainty. It’s the same way we don’t need to hear from everyone in the country to get smoking prevalence statistics, but we can produce a sample with which we would have a high degree of confidence in.
You would learn about this in A Level maths if you do a statistics option, or you can do what I have been doing at work this week and do a 4-day course by Public Health England in Population Health statistics.
Can we just make clear that this story is from late February, so is not newly known information to the people fighting this.
You keep yelling Tories at people who vote at every election and have never voted Conservative in their life. Leave the party politics behind. Even the Labour party understands that the role of the Opposition is not to score points currently.Who am I coming across as 'prejudist' against? Tories?
Tories aren't a religion or ethnicity, chum.
Who am I showing intolerance towards? Again, Tories?
The vulnerable in this crisis are old people and ill people - they need defending, right now.
If it insults the shithouse party that you (fairly clearly) voted for, to be frank mate, I couldn't give a feck. That's not extremism though - it's Humanism.
Again, press ignore, I'll be doing the same at this point as in all honesty I don't value what you've spouted in here thus far.
Take it easy, and have a good 'un. x
That's not true. In China they estimate that 75% of infections occurred in the home, that is where you are most likely to get it from. There is little evidence that mass gatherings transmit the disease in a significant way, as far as I've read anyway. At a football match for one you are outside but if you do get infected by someone sneezing on you, you cannot pass that on to other people for another few days. There is no chain infection effect that I think people imagine there is. Whilst the virus is still relatively low in the population a mass gathering shouldn't pose much threat. The main issue is that mass gatherings require lots of police, medics etc so those valuable resources could be wasted. As it is at the moment the UK services are not overwhelmed yet so there was little evidence that mass gatherings should be have been stopped. The UK decision to ban them was political due to public perception and nothing else as far as I can see.I think they just hoped it won't spread more than anything else.
I'm not advocating for any position. I hold my hands up and say that I'm clueless. I'm just expressing a huge amount of scepticism that the WHO approach is going to work and everything is going to be OK if we follow it.That's it I am convinced now we should just let it burn and let the strongest survive.
Not qualified but if you get really sick from an infection don't you become more vulnerable going forward? Remember that British nurse that got Ebola, she had a big relapse.Do we have anyone on this forum anywhere near qualified enough to tell us as to why this reinfection could be happening? To try to make sense of this? I get the false negative testing part, obvious that can happen, but what about the fact that the people in question have seemingly recovered, then to only have a sudden onset of symptoms? I find it strange that more is not being made of these developments over the past few weeks. Seems like an important detail just to put down to false negative results.
Is it? I just seen it come up on my tl, so I thought it was latest information.Can we just make clear that this story is from late February, so is not newly known information to the people fighting this.
I thought it was the opposite? Do you not build immunity? But I do remember that case now that you mention it. So we can assume then, that this doesn't completely leave your body, leaving a person open for a relapse.Not qualified but if you get really sick from an infection don't you become more vulnerable going forward? Remember that British nurse that got Ebola, she had a big relapse.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pauline_Cafferkey
It was found in 2015 that, after an apparent complete cure, with the bloodstream, saliva and organs such as the liver free of the Ebola virus, it can linger on in parts of the body not protected by the immune system, including fluid in the eye, the central nervous system and, in men, the testes and semen.[15]
No worries, it's easily done as the tweet didn't clarify it, but the dateline is 27 February. It's still concerning, obviously.Is it? I just seen it come up on my tl, so I thought it was latest information.
Your response does not make any sense.That's it I am convinced now we should just let it burn and let the strongest survive.
It's not completely unheard of. Epstein-Barr infections can behave that way, too.Do we have anyone on this forum anywhere near qualified enough to tell us as to why this reinfection could be happening? To try to make sense of this? I get the false negative testing part, obvious that can happen, but what about the fact that the people in question have seemingly recovered, then to only have a sudden onset of symptoms? I find it strange that more is not being made of these developments over the past few weeks. Seems like an important detail just to put down to false negative results.
Schools and nursery schools closed till April 20th.France 3661 79 deaths
Spain 5232 133 deaths.
Can you tell us what Germany is doing to contain it? Not read of anything significant, both doing localized school closures, both eventually called the football off having just played with full crowds, Leipzig Spurs for example.. With Merkel saying 70% of German could be infected, that would be a lot of deaths as well and she's advised not to close the borders. Maybe you could include Germany in your uncontrolled spread jibe?
Edit: Just reading most schools closing now?
Excellent post.Tweet
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This is my question on the WHO approved method. What happens to economies if we go into a cycle of complete shutdowns for 18 months whilst we wait for a vaccine? This will result in mass business closures and mass job losses. This will have a massive societal impact and cause significant social unrest that I just don't think the WHO's singular vision has any comprehension of. They are not in the business of running economies and societies.
You could view the UK approach as utilitarian in that its seeking to protect the society as a whole whilst accepting that loss of life cannot be avoided and is a trade off for that. Of course this is unpalatable for many but the alternative could reap much worse consequences e.g. mass poverty, social unrest and governments becoming more authoritarian to maintain control.
I'm guessing it depends on your own immune response. Immunity is basically your bodies ability to detect an invader/pathogen quickly enough.I thought it was the opposite? Do you not build immunity? But I do remember that case now that you mention it. So we can assume then, that this doesn't completely leave your body, leaving a person open for a relapse.
Yeah, my bad. Still the fact that the virus can seemingly linger in a person after they recovered is concerning, if that is indeed what's happening.No worries, it's easily done as the tweet didn't clarify it, but the dateline is 27 February. It's still concerning, obviously.
Nick. I'm not necessarily for or against what the government proposes (I have nowhere near enough knowledge to know what's best) but the first expert in your link seems to assert that "the delay techniques promoted by the government are likely to achieve this aim [of flattening] the peak so that those people who suffer the more severe forms of the disease are able to be cared for properly." He also asserts that "by winter" uninfected people will be in a minority.
There's vaccines for the flu to protect the elderly and weakIf the economy doesn't matter at all and health is all important, why don't the same people advocate for a lockdown every flu season?
Where do people think the money to fund the NHS comes from?
Well HIV is the same from everything I know (someone please correct me if I'm wrong). The challenge with viruses is that they invade your cells, and if it's not active in your cell it can just stay there dormant. But luckily, the cell itself will detect that and commit cell suicide (apoptosis)Yeah, my bad. Still the fact that the virus can seemingly linger in a person after they recovered is concerning, if that is indeed what's happening.
I'm bewildered that nobody is actually thinking about the bigger issues at hand. I guess it's the privilege of most people here either being financially secure or living in one of the rich, developed countries.Excellent post.