SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

My housemate has been coughing quite aggressively for the last 20 minutes or so. I can hear her from my room :nervous:
 
F-Red said:
Doesn't really mean a lot this data, most consumers in China's have more than one mobile airtime subscription, you've also got the fact that if you're home bound then you don't need anything else other than WiFi. To try to correlate this to a death count doesn't take the full picture into account.
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Also job losses could be a factor. And there's more tha one servie provider (or at least there was back in 2003), so it would need to be checked with the other one too.
 
DiseaseOfTheAge said:
Honestly, where did this idea that the Brits love freedom and couldn't cope with being ordered around come from? We're famous for queuing and we're the most surveilled country in the world. We love authoritarianism.

Replace Johnson's daily address with a series of stern but attractive men and women telling us what to do and we'd all be too horny to leave the house anyway.
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wants Amber Rudd to call him a naughty boy

edit - not just did steve see this, he had the dignity to pass it up and then called it a stale joke; my humiliation is complete.
 
nimic said:
Double? I'd be surprised if there isn't ten times the infection that we've confirmed. People really shouldn't be too focused on the mortality rate. There are much bigger challenges to this virus than that.
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Agreed
 
nimic said:
Double? I'd be surprised if there isn't ten times the infection that we've confirmed. People really shouldn't be too focused on the mortality rate. There are much bigger challenges to this virus than that.
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I was multiplying the official numbers by 100 to begin with, which puts Britain at about half a million, but more recently I've read some estimates of a million plus in the United Kingdom already. We'll never truly know I guess.

If it really is true that millions already have it globally, it's both good and bad news. The good news is that the CFR is lower than we thought, and that a vast majority of people suffer only mild symptoms.

The bad news is that an awful lot of people will have already unknowingly spread the disease to the vulnerable and will continue to do so.
 
17 Van der Gouw said:
I was multiplying the official numbers by 100 to begin with, which puts Britain at about half a million, but more recently I've read some estimates of a million plus in the United Kingdom already. We'll never truly know I guess.

If it really is true that millions already have it globally, it's both good and bad news. The good news is that the CFR is lower than we thought, and that a vast majority of people suffer only mild symptoms.

The bad news is that an awful lot of people will have already unknowingly spread the disease to the vulnerable and will continue to do so.
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We can do antibody tests later on that will confirm the infection rate fairly accurately.
 
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17 Van der Gouw said:
Does a flatmate count as somebody you live with?

If so, 14 days isolation for you buddy.
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Technically yeah I guess. But I have an ensuite, and I don't use any of the shared facilities in the house - which is basically a kitchen.

It's still going btw. She works for the NHS (not a doctor or nurse) so I guess she they are quite likely.
 
I_live_cement said:
I'm not usually one for conspiracy theories but what does everyone else make of ID2020 and Bill Gates' involvement in it?
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As the blurb says on their website:

"The ID2020 Alliance is a global partnership maximizing the potential of digital ID to improve lives"

Thank god for that, they're doing it to improve our lives. Just like the government is "protecting" us now
 
Skills said:
Technically yeah I guess. But I have an ensuite, and I don't use any of the shared facilities in the house - which is basically a kitchen.

It's still going btw. She works for the NHS (not a doctor or nurse) so I guess she they are quite likely.
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Yeah but you use the same entrance and exit presumably? You'll flick the light on and off, touch the door handles. Incidentally, I was paying attention to what I touch in the house and I've fecking gave up after a while -- it started giving an anxiety because I was literally touching fecking everything without realising really.
 
Tarrou said:
his maths is wrong isn't it?

it would be more than 14 as you're multiplying the 1.4s and not adding them

don't think it would be much higher though, so the overall point still stands
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Mate, my maths is probably the level of a primary school kid. I've no idea. I just assumed he right.
 
Tarrou said:
his maths is wrong isn't it?

it would be more than 14 as you're multiplying the 1.4s and not adding them

don't think it would be much higher though, so the overall point still stands
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:lol:

That was my first thought, too.

1.4^10 = 29

which is still a hell of a lot better than

3^10 = 59,049
 
Tarrou said:
his maths is wrong isn't it?

it would be more than 14 as you're multiplying the 1.4s and not adding them

don't think it would be much higher though, so the overall point still stands
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it works for 1.3 (he said 1.3 or 1.4)
 
Tarrou said:
his maths is wrong isn't it?

it would be more than 14 as you're multiplying the 1.4s and not adding them

don't think it would be much higher though, so the overall point still stands
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He was using 1.3 =13.79
 
RedMist99 said:
My grandpa, 93 was admitted to hospital on Saturday with a very high temperature. Just had results and he has tested positive for Covid 19. Death sentence most likely :(

Really worried for my mum and dad now who were there to try and help him up when he had collapsed.
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So sad to read this. Sorry. These are hard times.
 
Arruda said:
None of that is true.

Let me explain you how things work in Medicine.

- Doctors treat patients, even when they don't know what they have. One of these conditions would be called "pneumonia of unknown etiology" or something to that effect. It happens pretty often, here and there.

- By mid-December doctors in Wuhan got concerned about a cluster of patients with this sort of pneumonia; on the 18th there were 8 patients identified. One patient isn't enough, neither are two... You, as a frontline doctor, need a reasonable amount of "strange" clinical cases to even realize something is wrong, so that the specialists who study this kind of outbreak can be called upon to act.

- Genetics, mode of transmission, epidemiology, take some time to study. There may have been many occasions where perhaps wrong decisions were made and time was lost but this is not only expected, it's unavoidable. It takes time to be sure what you're dealing with.

- China started imposing measures in Wuhan very fast, and by 23rd January the city was in full lockdown. This was insanely swift, given that the knowledge of the disease was still being compiled. The results are there for everyone to see. They contained it, after extending measures to other cities. They took maybe two weeks to decide this. When you compare the magnitude of the decision (Economics), and how long western countries are taking to make the same decisions, there is no way it's hypocritical to criticize western leaders. They were far slower, with plenty more information. Do you really think if the outbreak had been in one of these countries it would have been better contained than China? No way.

- After all this is done, "backtracing" allowed them to conclude that the first confirmed patient was in the 1st of December. This is hindsight. Not knowledge at the time. We may even conclude in the future that first patients were in October in some random village in the mountains. Without large clusters it would be natural they would have gone undetected on a national scale, let alone studied. This is why you "heard" of a virus in November. You heard it now, not then.

- No doctors were arrested, or at least there is no reasonable evidence pointing towards this. What we do know is that a doctor, named Li Wenliang, was among the first persons to understand the world-changing nature of the outbreak being studied and try to speak publicly about it. I don't even know if he realized this because he had access to higher-level preliminary information or just out of his own reasoning (just like many "early warner" doctors did a bit everywhere - including, modesty aside, me in my own country, at a much lower and quieter level).

- Li Wenliang wasn't arrested. He was called by local government officials and told to shut up. Then he returned to his normal life and work, util he got ill and died - in absolute freedom (well, as absolute as freedom can be in a country like China)

- Silencing someone may look more daunting because it came from an autocratic country, but from a Public Health perspective it may very well be reasonable. I wish my government did the same around here with all the naysayers that have been causing damage. In hindsight, in China they were wrong, but the principle is the same.

- There will be a gazillion of unexplained small things in here, after all it's China, we are very distant from them, even at a cultural and communication level. It's stupid to conclude from these failures that they could have contained this. It's expecting more from them than you expect from your own leaders. All that matters from politics here is how they relate to Public Health, and on this, the Central Chinese Government has been spot on (so far) and fast. Mostof those "silencing" issues came from local government, run-of-the-mill local crap leaders, which exist everywhere

- Lots more to be said, but it's tiring. I've been thinking of writing a well thought and referenced artocle about this, but have had trouble focusing.

[Opinion, not facts]
- Don't fall for Propaganda. Fake news of "8 arrested doctors" and country-wide cover-up have been popping everywhere for weeks, bit increasing severely now. For anyone who has been studying this for weeks it's pretty obvious what the goal is - deflect blame from western leaders, who were, with no exceptions, far more inept than the Chinese at protecting their people.
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Good post @Arruda
 
Ally my thoughts with you @RedMist99, I’ve seen reports of people in their 90s pulling through so don’t give up hope just yet x
 
Piers Morgan is having a 10/10 rant at those idiots who went out in their numbers at the weekend on Good Morning Britain at the moment. He's spot on on this. Some of those morons not taking the situation seriously will be watching this and will hopefully change their ways after hearing this.
 
Foxbatt said:
Why should they be falsifying the numbers? They already have over 1650 deaths and over 20,000 reported infected. They probably have more deaths that's not reported due to lack of testing.
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Erm....because they falsify stuff in general?
 
Arruda said:
I am not a virologist, I was a Pathology Resident for three years and now work as a non-specialist doctor (basically a cheap GP) whilst I wait for the bureaucracies of starting a new residency.

When I mention my "expertise" I am talking about basic medical sciences (and related fields) on which I am obviously qualified and without which it becomes difficult to interpret microbiologic, epidemiologic, public health information, etc. Even specialized journalists struggle with this.

Where this expertise is relevant on this China thing is mostly in understanding how stuff like "they could have acted in December" makes no sense at all (irrespective of how many flaws you find in the process), not if you understand how scientific knowledge in general, and medical sciences in particular, are built upon.

I claim no expertise in whatever is going on with China politics or the way they usually handle things, I just happen to have a wider perspective on how they handled this due to my base knowledge. I then read posters like @Foxbatt (and it's not the first time he writes about this in here, completing my thoughts or correcting them) who seem very well informed on China specifics and things just make sense.
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I think it's easy to bash China's response to the coronavirus, but imo it misses the point. It takes time for the information to travel from some suspected cases in a lowly province into an hypothesis into a reality into Beijing - I think once the information got to Beijing they acted strongly and decisively.

Check out this Deutsche Welle report from mid February on their measures - and then compare their response to say Trump's response. It's night and day. Trump had a month head start in the race to contain/minimize the virus spread in the US, but his lack of judgment and his repeated disdain of science make him the worst possible person to lead through a global health challenge.

What China needs to be blamed for, however, are the fecking wet markets that seem to be a breeding ground for viruses. They need to go, and hopefully all the demand for exotic animals (rhino horns, and sharkfin soup and all that nonsense that's destroying the world's fauna).
 
GDaly95 said:
I don't have the corona virus as I have none of the symptoms but I am so ill, I didn't think it was possible literally not be able to consume a drop of water without throwing it back up. Been this way since of the middle of last night. Hopefully just a 24 hour bug.

Feel like this presumably makes me a bit more high risk, so heightening the lockdown. Fortunate that I'm in a position to work from home!
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Where are you based at, and are you able to get tested?
 
Is there an updated version of the table showing Italy, UK and Spain deaths off set? I've not seen it the last couple of days (although I have been avoiding the thread a bit), I think the UK is falling behind Italy now, no?
 
SnowRoll said:
Thank you for a detailed reply, I appreciate you taking the time to explain yourself. It definitely makes a better discussion, than dismissing the various links I've provided as biased.

Just to make it clear, in my opinion, the Chinese scientific community did all it could in dealing with the virus (and still is). Just like doctors in the rest of the world, some of them make mistakes.
The issue is not with these types of actions. It is with the authorities silencing those professionals who raised the alarm as early as mid-November.
I haven't seen any western government threaten doctors not to publish their opinions. So, in that sense, the Chinese bare a lot of responsibility, beyond any mistake made by any professional or official.
I could be wrong, but to me, of all mistakes done since day one, the one silencing Chinese doctors has the biggest effect on the entire world. If we (the world) had another month or two to prepare for the pandemic, surely many lives would have been saved.

Since Wikipedia is a reliable source for you, please just take a quick look at these:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liu_Wen_(doctor)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xie_Linka

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Wenliang#Whistleblower_in_2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_coronavirus_pandemic_in_mainland_China#Censorship,_propaganda,_and_police_responses
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How the feck could those professionals raise the alarm as early as mid-November, when the first known infection by a new virus was reported on 1 December 2019?
 
RedMist99 said:
My grandpa, 93 was admitted to hospital on Saturday with a very high temperature. Just had results and he has tested positive for Covid 19. Death sentence most likely :(

Really worried for my mum and dad now who were there to try and help him up when he had collapsed.
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Look on the bright side. Over 75% of 90 years still recover from this, and the ones that dont, over 99% of them have other illnesses. Its not good, but it's not a death sentence.

SAred said:
So Today is the 14th day of lockdown in Italy be interesting to see if the curve starts to flatten out.
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I hope so but I think it may be a few more days yet. Although I do think a large number of those will get it, already have it, even if they dont know it yet.

I have also noticed there is consistently a spike in cases 4-6 days after each weekend, with day 6 being a massive jump.
 
RedMist99 said:
My grandpa, 93 was admitted to hospital on Saturday with a very high temperature. Just had results and he has tested positive for Covid 19. Death sentence most likely :(

Really worried for my mum and dad now who were there to try and help him up when he had collapsed.
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I'm very sorry to read this, thinking of you and your loved ones. x
 
VintageWhatnots said:
Is there an updated version of the table showing Italy, UK and Spain deaths off set? I've not seen it the last couple of days (although I have been avoiding the thread a bit), I think the UK is falling behind Italy now, no?
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Yesterday's deaths were more modest in comparison to Italy's at the same point (UK 48, Italy 133) but Spain had 48 deaths in a day around the same time, the next day they went up by 191!

You'd need to see a trend over a number of days to get hopeful.
 
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