Ok cool, just haven’t seen anything mentioned about them. Probably missed it as try to avoid COVID news generally.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
To be clear, I don't think people generally should be left to make their own judgement, because it's a road to disaster and the eventual outcome will be a lockdown anyway. I don't really disagree with you on any of that.
The point is more that when you have a government who does stuff like pretends Christmas can go ahead until literally just before Christmas, and then suddenly changes their mind and imposes a quarantine on half the country and gives people only hours to escape it, then what that is doing is forcing a lot of people into a position where they have to make their own judgements, or do so out of panic. Going down any route where you end up blaming and criticising people for behaving exactly as you can expect large groups of people to behave, is as pointless as it is useless.
The rules are quite inconsistent as I have found out through trying to do my job, and some of the logic behind them is beyond any sense. People at our work were literally getting emails threatening them to not keep their kids out of school the week before the end of term, but at the same time being told they were at high risk of infection if they sent their kids into school due to that being the main area of infection. As a result several used their own judgement to not send their kids in. If you give people tripe to eat and tell them its pancakes, some of them wont eat it. You are pushing people to make their own minds up.
I don't buy that anything happened on Friday to "suddenly" make this new strain more of a problem, because I've been monitering the cases in my area every week, and it's been VERY obvious there is a problem that needed to be addressed for well over a month now, and there have been plenty of people saying it too. Hosptials at nearly 90% capacity, and cases that have gone up more than 10 fold in two months...I mean anyone that can count could have decided before yesterday that something needed to be done.
Are they giving out estimates of a 0.4 to 0.9 increase?
I assumed you just, you know, increase the R number by 75%? It's (allegedly) 75% more contagious? The R Number is effectively a measure of the viruses contagiousness over it's lifespan? You can't just add a standard number to it, that's ridiculous.
Regardless I feel really really shit right now sitting in the middle of Tier 4 Lockdown. Christmas is cancelled. Everyone I know is devastated and feeling like they've been punched in the gut. Friends jobs are fecked again, but also schools closing is going to be a killer. If the 70% or 75% more infectiousness is correct then I don't see how that even the most extreme measures we took at the height of lockdown would have been enough to get R below 1.0
Like you say, maybe the media are exaggerating. If the one thing the media are known to do, it's to take a figure and run with it without context.
But god.
What the feck are you on about? Where have I said anything is not my responsibility?
I simply think it is quite important during a world pandemic that the people in charge aren't complete idiots who have no regard for anyone else's wellbeing, and I don't think that's what we have unfortunately .
In fact at this point if you think Boris is in any way competent and not a dangerous person to have in charge of managing a pandemic, then I think you have to be somewhat mad. They guy came on national television in March and TOLD you to go visit a covid ward and shake hands with everyone there.
Blaming every single other person in the country for not thinking or doing exactly what you want them to do is quite a strange way to approach what is going on. A lot of people actually need help or support and would probably behave a lot more safely if they got it, and a vast majority are doing absolutely everything they can within the realms of what they need to in order to survive.
The only thing i can think with some of the weird posts in this thread is that some of you still aren't even living in the real world and seeing what is really going on out there. Just judging from the odd photo being thrown around London for example has been an absolute ghost town for months. There aren't people just roaming the streets in massive packs. The only thing that's been busy is the trains, which is because its a massively populated city with many people in it who still have no choice but to travel around. It's actually quite spooky and anxiety enducing to walk around there due to how dead it is. The chaos last night was caused by making a ridiculous announcement at a ridiciulous time, 3 days after telling everyone that it was something that defintiely wouldn't happen.
What a shit few days. I expect panic buying tomorrow due to the news around ports.
Yeah this is their translation of the R number. It is more easily interpretable the 71% more transmissible estimate.
We have achieved much bigger drops in the R number so you shouldn't panic. E.g. here is the reference point from NI:NERVTAG said:
It's from this article. People are getting arried away because of the way this being communicated and contextualised, IMO.
Shouldn't be much really, most retailers have stockpiled for Brexit. Exports will be worst affected.
At least we get an early insight into what Brexit looks like on January 1st.
I work for a local council who have access to the data and they have been telling the government for weeks that the tiers needed to change. I see the data every week and the problem has been obvious for a long time now. Go by case rates or hospital capacity or both. It doesn't matter. The basic numbers alone are the equivalent of not only the fire alarm going off but being able to literaly see the fire burning on your desk in front of you, and still thinking "yeah I'll just sit here a bit longer". They did nothing at all until Wednesday and also blocked the Council's attempts to close or stagger schools. Now I'm supposed to believe there was no prior warning of any major issue until THIS Friday
My work place alone has literally been saying directly to the government "look there's a bit of a problem here" for fecking ages now. Local Councils have been asking them to let the schools close due to how out of hand the case rises have been getting. Essex County Council have been saying it for even longer.Are the vaccine centres staffed by retired medical staff?
my father-in-law was given his by an old guy on crutches!
my father-in-law was given his by an old guy on crutches!
The thought had crossed my mind
Yes but it's not a simple as saying "we dropped the R-Value from 3.7 to 0.7 previously and we can do it again" well no, we went from a completely open economy to a completely shut economy. We do not have a completely open economy now. If the R-value in March-April was 0.6 then and it's 70% more infectious, and we can just do 0.6*1.7 which, you know, maybe I am wrong about, then that is 1.0 back in March-April.
feck. What else can you close?
Also, It's winter. March-April was an (actually very nice) Spring-Summer.
Also, March-April wasn't good. My kids weren't at school. Their school was shocking at providing home learning. The government spent large percentage points of GDP to keep going and the economy subtracted by large percentage points of GDP.
Ergh
Hi guys,
Reading reports here in NA about the bew coronavirus strain in UK.
Will the Covid vaccine be affective against this new strain?
Reading reports here in NA about the bew coronavirus strain in UK.
Will the Covid vaccine be affective against this new strain?
Yeah very much likely but they maybe have to tinker with it like the do with the flu jab every year.
Alright I'll leave you to your despair but I'll just say that isn't the right way to use the 71% transmissibility estimate, even if it were accurate
I've been looking up some old news articles from January this year to check quotes from authorities. Gotta say, it's alarming to read those quotes from today's perspective. Makes you wonder how much you can trust whatever they're saying today.
Random quotes from January:
Random quotes from January:
33.5 k on Wednesday rather than the reported 25.1k then.
Does anyone know of all of the other countries with this new varient of covid? Surely its very widespread if it has been around since September? I've just been looking at the figures for Germany from around the 9th of December until now, and both new infections and deaths appear to be going through the roof.
The whole thing seems to be running like a fire out of control through the world now { with a small number of exceptions}, genuinely I can see things getting far worse until summer next year and only then improving. And that's just from a medical point of view.
From an economic point of view I think its going to be carnage for quite some time longer.
The whole thing seems to be running like a fire out of control through the world now { with a small number of exceptions}, genuinely I can see things getting far worse until summer next year and only then improving. And that's just from a medical point of view.
From an economic point of view I think its going to be carnage for quite some time longer.
What are they comparing this new variant to? Are they sure it is a different Ro? Or just a different R? If they are comparing it to other variants in areas that were locked down harder then the difference could just be R due to different conditions.
That's just ridiculous. Wear masks, dont mix, keep distance. It's not that fkin hard.
At some point we have to look past Boris and address the elephant in the room, that being a significant number of the populace put their full trust into him not once (Brexit) but twice (the last election).
Boris never at any point tried (or was able) to hide what a nasty piece of work he is yet people voted for him anyway.
Last edited:
Also, anyone know exactly why this variant is more virulent and what adaptations covid19 has made to itself to become much more contagious?
Eg: Has it grown wings for itself? Does it fly further through the air?
This is getting boring now. It obviously is hard for some people as otherwise everyone would do it, and again, nearly everyone who can do it has been. I literally don't know anyone who hasn't been doing everything they can, apart from a few who went to the BLM march because they decided it was an important issue, and a few who want to see their families at Christmas because they are genuinely worried for their wellbeing.
Making ignorant and stupid statements and judging people without being able to show any empathy whatsoever, does nothing to help anyone. Give it a fecking rest.
Yes well that's very true but again it does nothing to help people through a pandemic.
I think anyone who voted for him should be ashamed of themselves really, but it's gone now, and its pretty important to hold him to account when thousands of people's lives are dependent on it. Instead of wasting energy moaning about a few desperate people trying to catch a train or buy a coffee, as if it somehow makes them the devil.
Not sure if this was posted before but that’s a great read on the current state of knowledge about new variants of covid and offers some good insights https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...om-sets-alarms-its-importance-remains-unclear
Nice!
The UK seems so isolated now. Numerous countries banning flights from the UK and from Jan 1st, Brits won't be able to travel to Europe for non-essential trips because of Brexit.
It's all so weird.
It's all so weird.
We have our blue passports though Penna.
Insulting another member
If I catch COVID it will not be Boris or one of his cohorts that give it to me it will be a tosser with a similar attitude to yours. All of us are suffering in this pandemic but what the feck.....how many more times does wash your hands, keep your distance, wear a mask and stay in your bubble have to be parroted before folk take notice and accept responsibility.
And sorry but I reckon you are telling porkies if with hand on heart you are really trying to claim that you have only had contact with those who have obeyed the rules/guidelines as I know only too well that many have pushed the boundaries as far as they can. I do so wish we had adopted what I understand to have been the Chinese method and physically locked people into there homes and put up roadblocks to stop citizens moving from place to place and instead of our police adopting a softly softly approach hammered transgressors because the bottom line is that the selfish stupidity of a segment of the population is killing people.
Surely we’re headed for another prolonged full lockdown whilst we vaccinate as many people as we possibly can?
I think most of January will be a lockdown. We need to vaccinate as many vulnerable as possible
It feels inevitable really, seems like it’s spiralling out of control at present. I’d really like to see the government making more provision for kids to be home schooled now while we try and get it back under some level of control. No point in restrictions on families if kids are allowed to mix with 30 other kids.
Ok, what's your solution to it all?
When did this come in?
I agree with the general principle that criticising people for things that we know will happen is stupid and often pointless. I just think that's a very generous and dangerous position to take, and even if it seems unfair, individual criticism helps moderate that behaviour so it is not unreasonable. That is one of the social roles of criticism, reminding communities of what we believe is acceptable or not. I do accept that people were right to hear that news and rush out of London. I wouldn't be completely shocked if one of my friends was on that train because there's definitely something of a split among my London friends on the last couple of weeks. I would have to tell them I think that's absolutely reckless.
I totally agree with you that the government make it worse with a ridiculous communication strategy. But in your great burning building metaphor you do make the point that maybe it's better to stop following the clown. The government stopped supporting people properly on this over the last two weeks so people were forced to take more responsibility into their own hands. To me they have only made it worse and that's very worrying. Enough of a worry to justify well-meaning but firm criticism of seemingly innocuous choices, IMO.
Now they haven't said for sure it is a different R0 but they have moderate confidence than it is. They're just comparing it to other major strains. Given they're comparing in the same place over the same time and they have some idea of the biological differences, they think the really explosive growth of this particular strain has to have something to do with transmissibility. But we need better tests to evaluate that fully.
It is not about how it transmits between humans but how it works within the body. It binds more easily and appears to replicate more quickly which creates a higher viral load because of some structural changes to the receptor binding domain (RBD). Higher viral load means more transmission in general.
So although it might be more infectious we don't know yet. What we do know is that Boris is bigging this up to cover for the fact he allowed London and the SE to be less restricted than was sensible and we are now paying the price.
It came directly from NERVTAG in fairness. You can see the meeting they had and the statements they made are alarming. They should come with heavy caveats but it's appropriate to take a cautious response to that. You can see in the doc PHE and NERVTAG agreed on the policy response to it too. PHE confirmed that on Andrew Marr yesterday too. You can't just put this down to Boris.
https://khub.net/documents/13593956...b-161f-2fd5-1030-32b6ab467896?t=1608491166921
Mhm. Is there not some things about higher viral load also means higher chance to get sicker?
No doubt Boris has ballsed this up and so will expectedly jump to put this squarely on the new strain to divert attention for what would anyway have been a disaster in the making.
But also I think there’s clearly truth in the impact this new strain could have.
But also I think there’s clearly truth in the impact this new strain could have.
Thanks for the link.
I totally agree with you that the people in charge are complete idiots and and largely to blame for the situation we find ourselves in. The decision not to restrict travel into the UK from countries earlier in the year, a lockdown brought in too late, the Dominic Cummings eyesight test, attempting to force children back to school before the September break, the eat out to help the virus, Johnson telling people to get back into the office and then being forced to backtrack as infection rates started to increase.
Falsely raising people hopes regarding Christmas was incredibly cruel and stupid. It looked like we were heading for an absolute disaster following Christmas and the brick of reality has hit Johnson full in the face. The so called recent discovery of this new strain has given the Government an excuse to back down and whether this new strain is largely responsible for the spike in cases is debatable, however the fact remains that cases are increasing at an alarming rate. More importantly it has dealt the Government a get out of jail free card and has forced them to do the right thing albeit in a characteristically bungled way. Johnson not loosing face is far more important than peoples lives.
Raising infection rates are not just down to Government incompitence though, the population also has a crucial role to play. The virus is spread by person to person contact, that fact has been consistent right from the beginning, thats not difficult to understand, even if advice from this bunch of idiots has been. The advice and rules brought in by the Government have been contradictory and confusing to say the least, but the same cant be said regarding advice from the medical advisors which has been largely consistent throughout this, apart from the wearing of masks in the early stages. The Government has clearly ignored the medical advice on numerous occasions.
The scenes at London Stations are not entirely down to the Government though and is a little naive if you don't mind me saying. Many of those people packing those trains have decided that their Christmas will not be disrupted no matter what. The announcement on Friday would have come as a bitter disappointment to many but these are adults not children. It appears that many people are prepared to put themselves and other people, including those people who need to use the transport system to go to work. People traveling to and from work being told being told that social distancing would not be possible and advised to not travel if they feel uncomfortable. This is not an isolated incident either, just cast your mind back to the summer and the bank holiday weekend. Beaches and other tourist spots rammed full despite people being asked not to travel. The timing of the announcement and the fact that the tier 4 and restrictions should have been brought in with immediate effect was a glaring act of stupidity but that doesn't excuse the stupidity and deliberate acts of individual selfishness by people who are not prepared to have Christmas disrupted.