SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

I don`t know what to believe anymore. Cases rising, surge in the North East , doctors warning about relaxing restrictions too soon. On the other hand we have got huge gatherings all over Europe of unmasked football fans singing, hugging and in close contact , wimbledon crowds , music events , less mask wearing than ever and talk of ending social distancing and mask wearing alltogether in a couple of weeks. Something doesn`t add up.
The spike in cases doesn't normally take place until 2-4 weeks after the event.

If there was outbreak at a football match we should see the rise in cases next week or the week after. Moreover, the right factors need to be in play for an outbreak to happen.
 
I don`t know what to believe anymore. Cases rising, surge in the North East , doctors warning about relaxing restrictions too soon. On the other hand we have got huge gatherings all over Europe of unmasked football fans singing, hugging and in close contact , wimbledon crowds , music events , less mask wearing than ever and talk of ending social distancing and mask wearing alltogether in a couple of weeks. Something doesn`t add up.
It adds up. People are tired and bored of the virus, unfortunately it hasn't yet got bored of us. The vaccines need time, and in the UK we might just get away with it, especially as we've also had a big percentage with some immunity as they've been infected before.

For a big chunk of the less vaccinated world, where Delta is spreading fast, you've just got to hope that they can keep it away from the old and the vulnerable, and that can handle the medical consequences of uncontrolled infection rates in younger groups.
 
We will never, ever get to ‘the end’. This virus is here to stay and the sooner we accept that and stop trying to stop it, the better.

It’s the flu that we don’t fully understand yet and will just need to vaccinated against it (if you choose to).
Will people stop calling it the bloody flu?
 
I don`t know what to believe anymore. Cases rising, surge in the North East , doctors warning about relaxing restrictions too soon. On the other hand we have got huge gatherings all over Europe of unmasked football fans singing, hugging and in close contact , wimbledon crowds , music events , less mask wearing than ever and talk of ending social distancing and mask wearing alltogether in a couple of weeks. Something doesn`t add up.
The answer is ‘money’
 
Highest case rates in the UK per 100k and first dose % in the far column.

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More localised information tells the red; story, younger ages not fully vaccinated yet and in areas of higher case rates.



Younger cases not relevant to her concerns. Which is based on surge of cases in over 30s in NE.

This tweet.



My UK geography is crap but - based on that table you shared - it doesn’t look like NE is significant outlier in terms of vaccine delivery?
 
Will people stop calling it the bloody flu?

For young people - the majority of the unvaccinated in the UK - the health outcomes for covid are similar to the flu, for the youngest age groups the flu typically causes more severe effects. That’s been true since the start of the pandemic and it is based on assessment by the CDC.

For vaccinated older people, the flu is more dangerous than covid. That starts to even out when people get their flu jabs too, but flu jabs are less effective than all of the covid vaccines currently used in the UK, so it’s not impossible that the flu will cause more damage to that population too this winter.

Depends a lot on variants from here, but in the current context, a comparison to the flu in terms of impact and risk is valid. It wasn’t this time last year but the situation is vastly different.
 
It adds up. People are tired and bored of the virus, unfortunately it hasn't yet got bored of us. The vaccines need time, and in the UK we might just get away with it, especially as we've also had a big percentage with some immunity as they've been infected before.

For a big chunk of the less vaccinated world, where Delta is spreading fast, you've just got to hope that they can keep it away from the old and the vulnerable, and that can handle the medical consequences of uncontrolled infection rates in younger groups.
So we are most likely going to be ok in the UK due to high rates of vaccination and can look forward to restrictions ending in a couple of weeks , no masks , big events with no real social distancing anymore. I hope so and I can understand why so many have stopped wearing masks and are pretty much just getting on with things as normal now.
Things are looking grim for the less vaccinated world by the sounds of it then?
 
Younger cases not relevant to her concerns. Which is based on surge of cases in over 30s in NE.

This tweet.



My UK geography is crap but - based on that table you shared - it doesn’t look like NE is significant outlier in terms of vaccine delivery?

It's not, though city centres in particular have poorer vaccine coverage than other areas. Mostly due to age profile, but also complications with GP registrations and hard to reach groups. This is the UK vaccine map by local area:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
"NE1 7RY" will give you a town centre to start from.

The NE did have fewer cases during the second wave than similar (age, population density, deprivation) areas, so there may be a different immunity by infection level in the area. That in itself could cause its R number to start to turn at a different point on the curve. Scotland has a similar story - lower past infections that may mean a lower level of overall level of immunity in the younger groups now.
 
I do apologise!!!

no idea what other virus to compare it to. I am just joe public and I appreciate that your level of knowledge and expertise in this field is well above mine.

please don’t be offended
Sorry pal, it’s just an annoyance of mine, a hangover from non-believers last year saying it was no worse than the flu as people were dropping dead.

no offence taken and none intended
 
Sorry pal, it’s just an annoyance of mine, a hangover from non-believers last year saying it was no worse than the flu as people were dropping dead.

no offence taken and none intended

Wasn’t exactly what I meant. I certainly didn’t mean to dampen the effects of COVID in any way.

It was a badly put phrase that was meant to allude to the fact that it is a virus that the world is starting to deal with and that it isn’t going to away - like flu didn’t and won’t go away. Unfortunately, we have to live and deal with it as best as we can
 
So we are most likely going to be ok in the UK due to high rates of vaccination and can look forward to restrictions ending in a couple of weeks , no masks , big events with no real social distancing anymore. I hope so and I can understand why so many have stopped wearing masks and are pretty much just getting on with things as normal now.
Things are looking grim for the less vaccinated world by the sounds of it then?
Part of it depends on what we mean by OK. The infection rate is about to go so high that we're right on the edge of the prediction models. Chances are that hospitals in most of the country will get really busy in August and a lot of them will have to stop doing elective surgery etc just as it was trying to restart - but by the time they do the government will point out that the cases are showing signs of falling again. Death rates will rise again, but we've got so used to seeing the UK deaths go over a 1000/day during the peaks of waves, that 100+/day won't scare people. Things should start to calm down again September, if the models are right and the vaccines hold and no new mutations kick us.

Meanwhile the story from the politicians etc will be that concerned people should look at their own personal risk - and presumably stay away from anyone under 40 or crowded places until they decide the gamble is worth it.
 
“precious “? What the feck are you on about now? I’m trying to understand what you mean by “pessimistic”. It seems to me you’ve mixed it up with the word “realistic”.

If you’ve actually followed Prof Pagel’s tweets you’ll have seen she was one of the first to focus on delta cases surging, while overall cases were falling. Which is how the UK ended up where it is now. The ability to see through larger trends and identify important underlying red flags is something we need more, not less of.

Obviously we all hope this surge of cases in the NE of England in older, vaccinated people is just some weird quirk of the data. But it’s definitely something that needs to be kept a very close eye on. Because this is exactly what the early signs of a new, vaccine resistant variant would look like. You’ll note that Prof Pagel didn’t specifically mention that possibility. Just asked if anyone had any ideas to explain what was going on. Which is not what you’d expect from someone who is being wilfully pessimistic.

Was flicking through the Metro paper on the train the other day and was mentioned as an aside Durham area was showing a huge rapid number of cases compared to areas within 100 mile radius so assume it's connected to this.

Are Blackburn/Bolton areas under control now as remember the mass panic two months back so one positive is this is happening now rather than in three-four months and only have to look at October-November last year to see what happened nationwide a few weeks later.

There's no real hope for 2021 is there whatever Government say will happen in two weeks. Just like July 2020 the current status is as good as it will get now for rest of the year.
 
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Wasn’t exactly what I meant. I certainly didn’t mean to dampen the effects of COVID in any way.

It was a badly put phrase that was meant to allude to the fact that it is a virus that the world is starting to deal with and that it isn’t going to away - like flu didn’t and won’t go away. Unfortunately, we have to live and deal with it as best as we can
Yeah sorry I get that, just in that moment it sounded very familiar. Anyway apologies
 
Part of it depends on what we mean by OK. The infection rate is about to go so high that we're right on the edge of the prediction models. Chances are that hospitals in most of the country will get really busy in August and a lot of them will have to stop doing elective surgery etc just as it was trying to restart - but by the time they do the government will point out that the cases are showing signs of falling again. Death rates will rise again, but we've got so used to seeing the UK deaths go over a 1000/day during the peaks of waves, that 100+/day won't scare people. Things should start to calm down again September, if the models are right and the vaccines hold and no new mutations kick us.

Meanwhile the story from the politicians etc will be that concerned people should look at their own personal risk - and presumably stay away from anyone under 40 or crowded places until they decide the gamble is worth it.

HIT can never ever happen even if 90 % of adults have both doses and then majority of school kids have jabs in September?

Is it some utopian dream now when some scientists are stating it's a realistic possibility albeit the virus will still linger around.
 
For young people - the majority of the unvaccinated in the UK - the health outcomes for covid are similar to the flu, for the youngest age groups the flu typically causes more severe effects. That’s been true since the start of the pandemic and it is based on assessment by the CDC.

For vaccinated older people, the flu is more dangerous than covid. That starts to even out when people get their flu jabs too, but flu jabs are less effective than all of the covid vaccines currently used in the UK, so it’s not impossible that the flu will cause more damage to that population too this winter.

Depends a lot on variants from here, but in the current context, a comparison to the flu in terms of impact and risk is valid. It wasn’t this time last year but the situation is vastly different.

We’re still at least a year or two away from your flu analogy working. The R0 of this virus is many multiples higher than flu because there are still millions and millions of people to whom it is still completely novel. It will rip through an unvaccinated population far quicker, with much more devastating consequences than flu can. Which has consequences for the older, vaccinated population who will be surrounded by a level of community transmission that is completely unheard of in any previous flu epidemics (1918 being a possible honourable exception)
 
We’re still at least a year or two away from your flu analogy working. The R0 of this virus is many multiples higher than flu because there are still millions and millions of people to whom it is still completely novel. It will rip through an unvaccinated population far quicker, with much more devastating consequences than flu can. Which has consequences for the older, vaccinated population who will be surrounded by a level of community transmission that is completely unheard of in any previous flu epidemics (1918 being a possible honourable exception)

That analysis rests on an unknown factor, a pessimistic assumption on your part and an optimistic one on mine, with lots of messy, seemingly contradictory evidence to support either assumption. And it is odd that people gloss over the fact these assumptions even play a role in our views, as if the evidence speaks for itself.

It will move through the population quicker, but will it have devastating consequences? That depends on how severe the symptoms are for the unvaccinated population. What is the hospitalisation rate for the unvaccinated population? That depends on the make up of the population.

Let’s assume it’s heavily weighted towards the youngest segments of the population, as current vaccination rates and attitudinal data suggests. What’s their hospitalisation rate? The CDC did some analysis on it based on the alpha variant which put it lower than the flu. Substantially so for the largest segment of the population that will be unvaccinated: kids and teenagers. There is some question of increased severity among younger populations with the current variant, but little confirmatory evidence

It also rests on an assumption on how large that group of voluntarily unvaccinated folks will be.

So I certainly wouldn’t rule out your predictions coming true. I just think it’s worth pointing out that there is a wider range of possibilities than the prevailing views on here suggest, which are still grounded in evidence and careful analysis.
 
A couple of my 40-something family members tested positive on their routine LFT tests earlier this week. Both primary school teachers, both double vaccinated. They and their unvaccinated teenage son have all now tested positive on PCR. None of them seriously ill fortunately, and they're all quarantined, but it's still grim news.

It's like a viral/vaccine experimentation Petri dish out there.
Isn't that good news? People with the vaccine won't get seriously ill. Outside of its relation to the pandemic, people getting flu like symptoms and recovering isn't news.
 
Isn't that good news? People with the vaccine won't get seriously ill. Outside of its relation to the pandemic, people getting flu like symptoms and recovering isn't news.
As long as they don't give it to anyone else or suffer complications or long covid themselves it's only a problem to the kids who don't have teachers this week. Hopefully the same will be true of the other 150k positive covid tests we'll see this week or the million or so we'll see over the next month - maybe they'll all be lucky and so will the people affected by their absence from work and caring duties.

Provided of course that none of the people affected spawns a viral mutation change that creates a variant that dodges the vaccine or infection immunity people have developed so far.
 
What's going to happen overall?

Say 20 years from now ? What will the world look like? Are we still going to be in this vaccine and variant cycle?
 
What's going to happen overall?

Say 20 years from now ? What will the world look like? Are we still going to be in this vaccine and variant cycle?
My guess - booster jabs for the vulnerable that cover covid and flu and are highly effective at keeping people out of hospital. As to which age groups etc will need them and how often - that does depend on new variants and new vaccine designs.
 
As long as they don't give it to anyone else or suffer complications or long covid themselves it's only a problem to the kids who don't have teachers this week. Hopefully the same will be true of the other 150k positive covid tests we'll see this week or the million or so we'll see over the next month - maybe they'll all be lucky and so will the people affected by their absence from work and caring duties.

Provided of course that none of the people affected spawns a viral mutation change that creates a variant that dodges the vaccine or infection immunity people have developed so far.
People are going to have to get this virus eventually, it's just not possible to prevent it forever. I do realize there are complications, but I don't think many people want to live under lockdown for the rest of their lives, the complications from that would be extreme. The US has already done what the UK is going through, so you have an idea of what to expect.

It will certainly be a disaster if half the people who get it end up with significant lung damage, I haven't heard anything about that since very early in the pandemic, where doctors were reporting asymptomatic cases having significant lung damage.

(Edit: here's the first article I found: https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200811/asymptomatic-covid-silent-but-maybe-not-harmless)
 
My guess - booster jabs for the vulnerable that cover covid and flu and are highly effective at keeping people out of hospital. As to which age groups etc will need them and how often - that does depend on new variants and new vaccine designs.

Yeah, my guess is that after a round or three of booster jabs and repeated exposures to new strains most people will have enough built up immunity to fight off any new variants on their own. The vulnerable will get boosters to help them out.

In other words, it will be just like the flu one day.
 
What's going to happen overall?

Say 20 years from now ? What will the world look like? Are we still going to be in this vaccine and variant cycle?
My guess - booster jabs for the vulnerable that cover covid and flu and are highly effective at keeping people out of hospital. As to which age groups etc will need them and how often - that does depend on new variants and new vaccine designs.
Yeah, my guess is that after a round or three of booster jabs and repeated exposures to new strains most people will have enough built up immunity to fight off any new variants on their own. The vulnerable will get boosters to help them out.

In other words, it will be just like the flu one day.

I agree with this. And don’t think it will take 20 years. 2 or 3 should do it.
 
A couple of my 40-something family members tested positive on their routine LFT tests earlier this week. Both primary school teachers, both double vaccinated. They and their unvaccinated teenage son have all now tested positive on PCR. None of them seriously ill fortunately, and they're all quarantined, but it's still grim news.

It's like a viral/vaccine experimentation Petri dish out there.

Just trying to be positive, now they have immune system to infected variant. Don't know for how long, though.
 
I fail to see the issue, it's not like Britain suffered loads of deaths from opening up everything too early before.

Whilst you're right to point over-ambitious relaxing of the rules previously, things are obviously better now.

The vaccine is having a huge impact on cases converting to hospitalizations/deaths, and it's hardly as if we're in a strict lockdown scenario currently.

Bar the making of masks compulsory, it sort of seems unfair to insist on certain areas remaining shutdown/activities prohibited whilst other areas are operating close to normal.
 
They can have whatever restrictions or non restrictions they like but the more people you talk to the more people are totally over it and don’t care anymore.
 
Until adults in poorer countries are able to get free vaccines, we won't be able to say the worst is over. It's OK for people in Europe and North America where we're awash with jabs and even have a choice, but we have to have a global solution to this. Even in a rich country like Australia things aren't good on the vaccination front, albeit for different reasons.

Countries with unbalanced Covid-denying leaders fare worst of all.
 
The Tories: We need to open back up again ASAP, to safeguard mental health. Mental health is absolutely vital.

Also the Tories: Mental health beds down by 25% since 2010

Sounds like a vague PR attempt. The Tories have done little to consider the psychological impact and invited the wrath of lots of chartered psychologists. Stephen Reicher of SAGE recently argued that they've given psychology a bad name:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/24/psychology-uk-covid-response
 
Bar the making of masks compulsory, it sort of seems unfair to insist on certain areas remaining shutdown/activities prohibited whilst other areas are operating close to normal.
Yep, to be honest the missing businesses are ones that people who are at most risk can avoid until case numbers calm down. Which if the number juggling of the modellers is accurate should happen in August.

I would like to see compulsory masks and social distancing continue in those places that the at risk can't avoid. So, in particular the shops we considered essential (primarily supermarkets and chemists) and on public transport. A measure of protection for people so that the 19th July genuinely is a step forward for everyone.

At the moment, I'm aware it's a step backwards for some of my family who had just started going shopping again for example (and even going out for a meal!) and who now have decided to retreat again. Which means I'm back to being the designated shopper and I'll be buying FFP2 masks for me, having been content with washables and surgical masks during the "if you're both wearing a mask the risk is less" era.
 
Bar the making of masks compulsory, it sort of seems unfair to insist on certain areas remaining shutdown/activities prohibited whilst other areas are operating close to normal.

I see this line a lot, and it makes sense. But only to a point.

If a Cinema/Theatre/Venue has a Capacity of 500, with current Covid calculations ruling it a 250 capacity, with seat gaps and Masks…. The next step should not be ‘500 Capacity. No masks’. That won’t help industry, or health measures, or Public Confidence.

People would need to be convinced to sit shoulder to shoulder with a stranger that was fully vaccinated for two hours. To suggest people will flood back to those sections of the economy with zero protections or mitigation’s is bananas. But Tories will Tory.

I do hope that all the Pearl clutching Cnuts that trot out ‘Blair is a war criminal’ for the 50-150k deaths (179 of them British) in another country over 8 years on his watch, are just as keen to call Boris Johnson a murderer for the rest of his days. 125k deaths at least. Not based off one decision. But hundreds of decisions spread out across 1.5 years. So far.
 
Yep, to be honest the missing businesses are ones that people who are at most risk can avoid until case numbers calm down. Which if the number juggling of the modellers is accurate should happen in August.

I would like to see compulsory masks and social distancing continue in those places that the at risk can't avoid. So, in particular the shops we considered essential (primarily supermarkets and chemists) and on public transport. A measure of protection for people so that the 19th July genuinely is a step forward for everyone.

At the moment, I'm aware it's a step backwards for some of my family who had just started going shopping again for example (and even going out for a meal!) and who now have decided to retreat again. Which means I'm back to being the designated shopper and I'll be buying FFP2 masks for me, having been content with washables and surgical masks during the "if you're both wearing a mask the risk is less" era.

It blows me away that we’re still politicising this. I’d already resigned myself to wearing a mask for at least another year.

That the 40 year old babies in our society and government are given platforms to weaponise this inane nonsense is staggering.

I hate masks. Just as much as Lawrence Fox and GMB and whatever oxygen thief is today’s latest martyr. Every bit as much. But it’s a piece of fcuking cloth when I mingle in public.

To give those dumb fcuks a say in any of This is maddening.
 
It seems we are genuinely out of the worst of it in the UK . I still don`t know whether to believe it. How are things in the rest of Europe and around the world , is Delta causing problems in countries where the vaccine uptake is lower?
 
It seems we are genuinely out of the worst of it in the UK . I still don`t know whether to believe it. How are things in the rest of Europe and around the world , is Delta causing problems in countries where the vaccine uptake is lower?
You probably shouldn't. We still don't know how bad it can get with Delta. The cases and hospitalisations in Scotland are showing a potentially worrying trend. Countries like Ireland and Norway have already delayed easing restrictions because of it. I'm hopeful that it won't cause a 4th wave but we simply won't know for a few more weeks.