Basically the types that would vote for Itxit and spend their time smashing up restaurants and shops on match day.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Basically the types that would vote for Itxit and spend their time smashing up restaurants and shops on match day.
England’s Covid travel rules spark outrage around the world
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...d-travel-rules-spark-outrage-around-the-world
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...d-travel-rules-spark-outrage-around-the-world
A stunning timeline. Daily deaths vs vaccination progress (1st, 2nd and 2nd+14d) in Uruguay.
A battering. Need I say more?
A battering. Need I say more?
The vaccines really are doing an amazing job where they're available.A stunning timeline. Daily deaths vs vaccination progress (1st, 2nd and 2nd+14d) in Uruguay.
A battering. Need I say more?
In the UK, case rates between July and now have been as high as they've been at any point in the pandemic. Hospitalisation rates are high (but falling and nowhere near the January peak) and death rates are depressing but vaccines have had a massive impact in the UK - most easily seen in the age profiles of hospitalisations.
Beware of misreading the chart, it's comparing how many people in a particular age group are being hospitalised to that same group during the January 2021 peak. The actual numbers of under 17s hospitalisation is thankfully low. The bulk of those hospitalised are unvaccinated adults and 80+ vaccinated.
Hospitalisations as high as they've ever been during the pandemic for U17s, but vaccines doing such an important job among adults that we can actually see the trends as they get vaccinated.
Do they provide a breakdown of hospitalisations jabbed vs non?
We currently have ~40% spare capacity in ICUs, with Covid accounting for ~1.5%.
Last time I saw the breakdown those were 1/3 jabbed vs 2/3 non. Idiotically used by someone arguing the vaccines were ineffective... when >95% of over 70s are jabbed, leaving under 5% to account for 2/3 of ICU Covid patients.
Rough numbers, there must be a couple of U70s there with or without vaccines, but you get the drift.
I’m going to assume she’s far more qualified to talk on this subject than I am but I’m confident enough to say she’s a fecking moron for making claims like this.
What do you mean? She's a moron for explaining how viruses usually behave and that SARS-CoV-2 is behaving like other viruses, by virtue of also being a virus? @Pexbo
Rather than trying to distinguish between types of deaths, The Economist’s approach is to count all of them. The standard method of tracking changes in total mortality is “excess deaths”. This number is the gap between how many people died in a given region during a given time period, regardless of cause, and how many deaths would have been expected if a particular circumstance (such as a natural disaster or disease outbreak) had not occurred. Although the official number of deaths caused by covid-19 is now 4.7m, our single best estimate is that the actual toll is 15.6m people. We find that there is a 95% chance that the true value lies between 9.7m and 18.3m additional deaths.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates
Paywalled, so can’t read it but I seriously doubt she’s saying anything moronic. Most likely a variation on what a lot of people who understand this stuff are saying. The virus can only mutate so much without a trade-off. Getting better at some things while getting worse at others. It’s not unlikely that delta is as bad as it gets.
This is what she said
“The virus can’t completely mutate because the spike protein has to interact with the Ace2 receptor on the surface of the human cell in order to get inside that cell.
“If it changes its spike protein so much that it can’t interact with that receptor, then it’s not going to be able to get inside the cell.
“There aren’t very many places for the viruses to go to have something that will evade immunity but still be a really infective virus.
“So I don’t think there’s an enormous amount of concern that we’re suddenly going to see a switch to something that evades existing immunity.”
“We tend to see a slow genetic drift of the [pandemic flu] viruses and there will be gradual immunity developing in the population as there is to all the other seasonal coronaviruses,”
“We already live with four different human coronaviruses that we don’t really ever think about very much and eventually SARS-CoV-2 will become one of those. It’s just a question of how long it’s going to take to get there and what measures we’re going to take to manage it in the meantime.”
“The virus can’t completely mutate because the spike protein has to interact with the Ace2 receptor on the surface of the human cell in order to get inside that cell.
“If it changes its spike protein so much that it can’t interact with that receptor, then it’s not going to be able to get inside the cell.
“There aren’t very many places for the viruses to go to have something that will evade immunity but still be a really infective virus.
“So I don’t think there’s an enormous amount of concern that we’re suddenly going to see a switch to something that evades existing immunity.”
“We tend to see a slow genetic drift of the [pandemic flu] viruses and there will be gradual immunity developing in the population as there is to all the other seasonal coronaviruses,”
“We already live with four different human coronaviruses that we don’t really ever think about very much and eventually SARS-CoV-2 will become one of those. It’s just a question of how long it’s going to take to get there and what measures we’re going to take to manage it in the meantime.”
I think it comes down to the principle that one way or another we need to build our immunity to the existing variants, not worry about speculative super-variants. We can do that via a vaccine - safer for ourselves and our neighbours. Or via infection - at higher risk to ourselves and our neighbours.
SARS2 won't be leaving. If it mutates into something that evades the vaccines and past infection, it won't be SARS2 because it'll have had to lose too many characteristics of the spike protein.
Chances are we'll all pick up SARS2 infections multiple times in our lives. Its characteristics don't lend itself to eradication, its presence in multiple types of animals (from other primates to cats and dogs, mink and beavers) says it's sticking around.
The issue now is how hard do you fight it and for how long. The UK has effectively abandoned hope of stopping it spreading through the under 12s, and is only grudgingly offering vaccines in the 12-17s (more to protect their education than their health). It's going to be a long hard winter for the vulnerable, the ones who can't take/get benefit from a vaccine, and the unlucky.
Those unvaxxed by choice have limited time to choose. The UK won't do much to stop them getting infected now - unfortunately they'll probably kill some of the vaccinated and/or vulnerable along the way to their own version of basic immunity.
Last edited:
So you would lock up all the children below 12 years old in the UK?
I would in Ireland but that's got nothing to do with Covid.
No because they’re not adults, they don’t have a choice to contribute to society
But who would let us back out when you all start dropping dead?
Little premature one had a night in Astrid Lindgren’s hospital on Wednesday for the RS virus we’ve been shitting ourselves about, big sis brought it home from day care where half the school is now off sick. We’ll probably be back in hospital again on Sat or Sun as the virus ”peaks” with the flem build up.
Cause and effect, RS has already absolutely exploded here due to such low levels of natural immunity. They now say they expect flu to annihilate many more than Covid this winter.
Scary.No one off courseBut who would let us back out when you all start dropping dead?
Little premature one had a night in Astrid Lindgren’s hospital on Wednesday for the RS virus we’ve been shitting ourselves about, big sis brought it home from day care where half the school is now off sick. We’ll probably be back in hospital again on Sat or Sun as the virus ”peaks” with the flem build up.
Cause and effect, RS has already absolutely exploded here due to such low levels of natural immunity. They now say they expect flu to annihilate many more than Covid this winter.
Shit. Sorry to hear that. With the focus on covid it’s easy to forget how nasty all the existing respiratory viruses are.
I think that a lot of the not-anti-maskers will still wear masks in public places in winter. Wearing masks got really common the last one and a half years - I remember times when we looked to Asia were it was a lot more common to wear them in public during flu times but I think that people are a lot more willing now to do so here, too.
Peroxide. No words.
They’re having a blonde moment
Sorry to hear that. Hope she gets well soon. 'Little premature one had a night in Astrid Lindgren’s hospital on Wednesday for the RS virus we’ve been shitting ourselves about, big sis brought it home from day care where half the school is now off sick. We’ll probably be back in hospital again on Sat or Sun as the virus ”peaks” with the flem build up.
Cause and effect, RS has already absolutely exploded here due to such low levels of natural immunity. They now say they expect flu to annihilate many more than Covid this winter.
Our one-year old caught some kind of virus three and a half weeks ago and still has a runny nose and coughing fits. He's been otherwise well and been eating and drinking like normal, so haven't needed to see anyone about it but whatever virus it is, it's a persistent fecker. We've had symptoms after he got sick and tested ourselves for covid with negative antigen tests. Very weird.
And, despite how geeky this will sound, I admit I'm looking forward to them
Two separate studies in the US have shown that schools with universal mask wearing are 3.5 times less likely to have an outbreak than those that don't. The studies are relatively large, but have the usual caveats. The first study tries to take into account socio-economic factors, but this could still have an influence.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7039e1.htm?s_cid=mm7039e1_w
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7039e3.htm?s_cid=mm7039e3_w
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7039e1.htm?s_cid=mm7039e1_w
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7039e3.htm?s_cid=mm7039e3_w
Well, I've got it. Thank feck for the jab, even with that it's knocked me for 6, I hate to think what it would have been like before!
One difficulty in the comparison is that mask mandates are mostly a Democrat thing, and the current cases are mostly in those Republican areas that weren't hard hit in the earlier waves, but are in this one. I admit that's a glib description but I think it's not that far off true.
This thread on deaths in the Delta wave gives an idea of just how marked the differences are:
Get well soon fella.
Cheers bud, feel like 10 types of shit today.
You probably said this somewhere but any idea where you got it?
From my daughter, she brought it home from school.
But but schools are fine
Don't get me started
Two thirds of her year are off with it.
Crazy
The ONS do surveillance of covid cases in the UK by doing random tests. Though their data is a week or so old when we see it, it acts as a cross-check on the data collected by the testing system. It also asks the people being tested questions about their circumstances/behaviour - like who they live with and do they wear a mask etc.
This week they've built up a risk profile of who's most likely to get covid at the moment. Basically, being vaccinated reduces your risk. Living with 4 or more people, spending time with a school age kid increases it. No surprise, just interesting to see the numbers.
A nice summary of the report
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...yriskoftestingpositiveforcovid19september2021
This week they've built up a risk profile of who's most likely to get covid at the moment. Basically, being vaccinated reduces your risk. Living with 4 or more people, spending time with a school age kid increases it. No surprise, just interesting to see the numbers.
A nice summary of the report
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...yriskoftestingpositiveforcovid19september2021
That’s interesting. Although I reckon the mask is acting more as a marker for people who are generally cautious/careful than the primary reason for reduced incidence.
Yep, and there's really no difference between "always" and "sometimes" on the results. Anybody answering "never" is in a different mindset, and the mask is just part of that.
I think the two that really count are the vaccination (and prior infection) and number of people you live with categories.