Pogue Mahone
The caf's Camus.
It didn’t.Why did the Spanish Flu die out again? I think I read it somewhere, but can't remember...
It didn’t.Why did the Spanish Flu die out again? I think I read it somewhere, but can't remember...
That is both really cool and really scary to find out.
By 1920 everybody had either developed immunity or died. Just like Covid will probably always be around in some form but the German chap was right, everybody will either be dead or immune to it.
Not sure where it originated, but the South African cases are probably due to the founders effect - we were close to zero cases until this most recent outbreak.Tweet
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So this news has triggered predictably frantic virtue signalling on Twitter about racist policies intended to ‘punish’ South Africa. Is there anything to that?
Is it not likely that there was also some delay in South Africa picking up the extent of the rise of this new variant? i.e. South Africa has always been the epicentre and it started to spread to other countries before the variant was identified and notified to the rest of the world.
Not a criticism of South Africa for the great work in identifying this variant, obviously. I doubt they could have done what they did any quicker.
I guess it’s possible that Omicron is behind the recent massive surge in Europe but that seems very unlikely. It would have surely been picked up much sooner.
That’s definitely possible. And, if so, means either one or both of the following are true.Not sure where it originated, but the South African cases are probably due to the founders effect - we were close to zero cases until this most recent outbreak.
So it's definitely possible that Omicron simply didn't have to compete with Delta at all, giving it a free run to take over in SA and hence be all of the cases. In Europe though, Delta has a firm grip. I think genome sequencing in Europe is done on c1% of cases, so it's very possible Omicron was effectively a variant of interest in Europe before the SA outbreak, but the SA outbreak has become the epicentre as it can infect everyone here.
Definitely. Although there’s an important different between the viruses in that influenza is much less genetically stable (antigenic drift) which makes it harder to vaccinate against but quicker to mutate to less virulent forms.By 1920 everybody had either developed immunity or died. Just like Covid will probably always be around in some form but the German chap was right, everybody will either be dead or immune to it.
The Kent variant was only identified as a problematic variant in December even though the first test case was captured in September, and the UK only looked at this variant beause of some interesting findings about a similar but different variant in South Africa in November. These things just sit in databases picking up dust until there's a particular real-world trigger that causes them to zoom in on it, we can track thousands of them but we can't thoroughly analyse thousands of them. It's not the kind of thing that jumps out in the data, despite all the talk about it being 50% more transmissible than the last. It was just a coincidental email that made them look.Tweet
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So this news has triggered predictably frantic virtue signalling on Twitter about racist policies intended to ‘punish’ South Africa. Is there anything to that?
Is it not likely that there was also some delay in South Africa picking up the extent of the rise of this new variant? i.e. South Africa has always been the epicentre and it started to spread to other countries before the variant was identified and notified to the rest of the world.
Not a criticism of South Africa for the great work in identifying this variant, obviously. I doubt they could have done what they did any quicker.
I guess it’s possible that Omicron is behind the recent massive surge in Europe but that seems very unlikely. It would have surely been picked up much sooner.
It doesn't make any sense to descibe South Africa as the country of origin for this variant, IMO. It's just the country of identification. For most big variants we never identify patient zero, and we continually discover it being identified in a completely different region at a much earlier point in the timeline. There's far too many gaps in international sequencing capabilities and far too much lag in genomic sequencing identification to have even a fuzzy picture of how it originated.Soon, his lab was analyzing swabs, shipped on ice by courier overnight. On Dec. 1, he emailed a British scientist, Andrew Rambaut, and asked him to review some of his early findings: a series of strange mutations on the virus’s outer surface.
Dr. de Oliveira, a Brazilian-South African scientist who sports long hair and a surfer vibe, shared his findings at a Dec. 4 meeting of the World Health Organization working group. All took notice because of the variants’ potential to disrupt the vaccine’s effectiveness.
Days later, Dr. de Oliveira recalled, Dr. Rambaut emailed him with a discovery of his own: British scientists had scoured their databases and found a similar but unrelated mutation that appeared linked to a cluster of infections in the county of Kent.
Coming two weeks before Christmas, Dr. de Oliveira immediately thought of the Lunar New Year early in the pandemic, when millions of people in China traveled far and wide for the holiday, some carrying the virus.
“It was crystal clear,” Dr. de Oliveira said in an interview. “These variants will spread nationally, regionally and globally.”
Dr. Rambaut and colleagues released a paper on the variant discovered in Britain on Dec. 19 — the same day that British officials announced new measures. The variant had apparently been circulating undetected as early as September. Dr. Rambaut has since credited the South Africa team with the tip that led to the discovery of the variant surging in Britain.
Random personal fact. Spanish flu orphaned my grandmother when she was living in South Africa (her dad was blown up a year earlier, working on the railways) and she had to take a 6 month boat trip all on her own to live with a grand-aunt in Ireland. Aged 11.Woah
Spanish Flu = H1N1
That's an incredible coincidence. My grandmother was 2-years-old when she was also orphaned by Spanish Flu.Random personal fact. Spanish flu orphaned my grandmother when she was living in South Africa (her dad was blown up a year earlier, working on the railways) and she had to take a 6 month boat trip all on her own to live with a grand-aunt in Ireland. Aged 11.
Where is this?Yeah. 10% of admissions have been under the age of two.
It isn't possible. Even if it wasn't picked up in time and the chance of that is probably less than 1 in a million, they would be finding hundreds of thousands cases now looking back, not dozens. And well over 50% of all cases would have to be omicron. It is totally impossible.Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
So this news has triggered predictably frantic virtue signalling on Twitter about racist policies intended to ‘punish’ South Africa. Is there anything to that?
Is it not likely that there was also some delay in South Africa picking up the extent of the rise of this new variant? i.e. South Africa has always been the epicentre and it started to spread to other countries before the variant was identified and notified to the rest of the world.
Not a criticism of South Africa for the great work in identifying this variant, obviously. I doubt they could have done what they did any quicker.
I guess it’s possible that Omicron is behind the recent massive surge in Europe but that seems very unlikely. It would have surely been picked up much sooner.
Excellent, have a good timeSo i found a place via the Scandinavian supportersclub that solved my problem. Booked in for a test at 07.20 saturday morning with test answers at latest 16.00 same day. My kid is buzzin as he though he would miss his first trip to OT.
“Children under the age of 2 account for about 10% of total hospital admissions in the omicron epicenter Tshwane in South Africa, according to the National Institute for Communicable Diseases.”Where is this?
That’s staggering“Children under the age of 2 account for about 10% of total hospital admissions in the omicron epicenter Tshwane in South Africa, according to the National Institute for Communicable Diseases.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-up-10-of-hospital-cases-in-omicron-epicenter
It’s from a few days ago though so might have changed.
Wouldn’t worry too much. Same thing happened with delta. You probably remember the headlines about delta making kids much sicker than previous variants. A new variant scares the shit out of everyone and the paediatricians err on the side of caution, admitting not very sick kids for observation.That’s staggering
ThanksExcellent, have a good time
Sounds like a series where Walt JR follows in his daddies footsteps.Breaking new on Sky
Early indications suggest most Omicron coronavirus cases are mild, the World Health Organisation (WHO) has said.
An official, speaking on behalf of the organisation, said there is no evidence to suggest the efficacy of vaccines has been reduced by the new strain- but did say some mutations of the virus indicate an increased risk of quicker transmission.
They added more than 40 different mutations have been identified with the Omicron variant.
This could turn out to be the end of the pandemic with covid 19 becoming like other coronaviruses with increased transmissibility minus the serious disease i.e. like the common cold/flu. We shall seeEarly indications suggest most Omicron coronavirus cases are mild, the World Health Organisation (WHO) has said.
An official, speaking on behalf of the organisation, said there is no evidence to suggest the efficacy of vaccines has been reduced by the new strain - but did say some mutations of the virus indicate an increased risk of quicker transmission.
They added more than 40 different mutations have been identified with the Omicron variant.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said she thinks it's time for EU member states to consider mandatory vaccinations.
She said such measures were required due to the emergence of the Omicron variant.
"On the one hand we have the virus and the variants, on the other hand we have vaccination and boosters and I want the second part to win," she told reporters in Brussels.
"Not each and everyone can be vaccinated," she acknowledged, but said "the vast majority could".
"Therefore, I think, it is understandable and appropriate to lead this discussion now [on] how we can encourage and potentially think about mandatory vaccination within the European Union," she added.
"This needs discussion. This needs a common approach, but it is a discussion that I think has to be led."
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-59...a781737b70b1571927bf56&pinned_post_type=share
I know I seem to constantly be a Debbie Downer about all your theories but my understanding is that the severity/mortality is driven mainly by the genotype of the host. If your genetics make you vulnerable to severe disease then you get sick and/dead quite quickly. For the virus to set up shop in an immune compromised host for a long time that person must be genetically resistant to severe disease. However, their impaired immune system means they can’t clear the virus as quickly as “normal” people, so they stay mild/moderately sick for a long time.More a question or a theory.
There have been suggestions that these huge mutated versions are created from immunocompromised people (HIV etc) now if the virus is staying in their system for a lot longer then a "healthy" person but it's not killing them does this make it more likely it will become a mild variant with less severe disease.
Makes sense from a logical view to me but was interested if there is actually any science to that or just pure luck.
It didn’t… people died, others gained natural immunity, the virus mutated every year to less deadly forms, although there have been years where it’s been more deadly than the previous year or symptoms have been much stronger.Why did the Spanish Flu die out again? I think I read it somewhere, but can't remember...
I went in my local sainsburys yesterday lunchtime, and was pleasantly surprised to see easily 95% of people wearing a mask. None of the signage around the shop had changed - it still said it was personal choice.However problematic or not the Omicron variant turns out to be, the latest restrictions regarding face coverings are not likely to have the desired effect.
Most of the big supermarkets have already said that they will not be asking their staff to enforce it.
And same for the biggest bus service First Bus.
Disappointing but understandable.
Do you live in an afflu… haha I can’tI went in my local sainsburys yesterday lunchtime, and was pleasantly surprised to see easily 95% of people wearing a mask. None of the signage around the shop had changed - it still said it was personal choice.
I went in my local Aldi a couple of hours ago and that percentage was reversed. I was one of three people in there with a mask, and one of those other two was one of those idiots who wear it under their nose!
Great to hear about those Sainsbury's shoppers.I went in my local sainsburys yesterday lunchtime, and was pleasantly surprised to see easily 95% of people wearing a mask. None of the signage around the shop had changed - it still said it was personal choice.
I went in my local Aldi a couple of hours ago and that percentage was reversed. I was one of three people in there with a mask, and one of those other two was one of those idiots who wear it under their nose!
Course it won't, do you genuinely believe shops are the breeding/incubation ground for covid? It's merely a vanity exercise from the government. If they were serious about having an impact then they would be going full on with social distancing and masks in hospitality if it really was something to be concerned rather than this current approach which has no logic to its decision.However problematic or not the Omicron variant turns out to be, the latest restrictions regarding face coverings are not likely to have the desired effect.
The Pull Out Method is a let downDo you live in an afflu… haha I can’t
What I can see with transports services not enforcing it is huge arguments. Imagine if someone whose not wearing a mask decides to sit next to someone who is wearing one? The one wearing the mask who was sitting there first would have every reason to be annoyed.However problematic or not the Omicron variant turns out to be, the latest restrictions regarding face coverings are not likely to have the desired effect.
Most of the big supermarkets have already said that they will not be asking their staff to enforce it.
And same for the biggest bus service First Bus.
Disappointing but understandable.
Interesting, I had both the 1957 and 1968 flu, but not the 2009. Maybe immune to that one after the first two.
It shouldn't be a personal choice. Regarding issues of public health, you have to say "you must" sometimes.I went in my local sainsburys yesterday lunchtime, and was pleasantly surprised to see easily 95% of people wearing a mask. None of the signage around the shop had changed - it still said it was personal choice.
I went in my local Aldi a couple of hours ago and that percentage was reversed. I was one of three people in there with a mask, and one of those other two was one of those idiots who wear it under their nose!
Few people would describe it as that!Do you live in an afflu… haha I can’t
Sounds like a series where Walt JR follows in his daddies footsteps.
My local big Asda used to be more or less 100% compliant (and those that didn't were almost all wearing visors). That had tailed off to less than 20% by last week. On Monday (before the rule officially changed) it was already back above 80%.I went in my local sainsburys yesterday lunchtime, and was pleasantly surprised to see easily 95% of people wearing a mask. None of the signage around the shop had changed - it still said it was personal choice.
I went in my local Aldi a couple of hours ago and that percentage was reversed. I was one of three people in there with a mask, and one of those other two was one of those idiots who wear it under their nose!
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A) it didn't and b) it became less of a problem because because many millions died and millions other who supplied go some level of immunity.Why did the Spanish Flu die out again? I think I read it somewhere, but can't remember...