Stanley Road
Renaissance Man
I am the polar oppositeHe's an anti Vaxxer
I am the polar oppositeHe's an anti Vaxxer
Not @Eboue ? Dude. Is he happy with you telling the world?I've had Eboue for sure
Despite my different views on a lot of things, I don't doubt @Stanley Road is on board with the scienceI am the polar opposite
Boris's only chance is populism, so he's blatantly gonna go for option 1Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Corrected it for youI believe you need a few days for the microchip to start working, if you go to the hospital too soon then its 5G capabilities won't work. At least that's what I read on myass.com
Either you don't get his sarcasm or I don't get your sarcasm, but I'm confusedCorrected it for you
It's a coded message to Stan with a clue that opens a crypto walletEither you don't get his sarcasm or I don't get your sarcasm, but I'm confused
That didn't help with my confusionIt's a coded message to Stan with a clue that opens a crypto wallet
Feel better soon. You're doing the right thing by sticking to the rules and isolating over Christmas, on the bright side - at least you have your partner and can make it a cozy time for the two of you.Just tested positive on a lateral flow earlier. My partner has had it for a few days now (she got it from a Work Christmas Party) and was hoping I’d sneakily avoid it but nope. Throat felt a bit annoying yesterday, and had this slight headache all day that I just couldn’t get rid off.
Today however, just completely sapped of energy, constantly needing to nap. Head is banging. Had a fair few lemsips now. Gonna have to isolate Christmas Day which really sucks, not much to be done about it though.
We’ve both had the double vaccine but no booster.
Not all hospital admissions are the same.I don't know if I'm being stupid here but I don't understand what the point in the vaccines or boosters is if we're now being told that hospital cases could end up double what they were last year unless we go into some kind of lockdown?
If a majority of people are vaccinated (90%), half triple vaccinated, and the vaccine offers the level of protection claimed, then the maths is a mile away from adding up here.
It was what, 1 in 30 at its peak last year, so over the course of the peak you can assume significantly more than 1 in 30 had covid. Possibly more than double that. Now 50% (and growing) of those would have around 70% protection, and almost all would have some vaccine or anti body protection. So for hospital admissions to be double last year you're getting close to everyone in the country needing to have covid at the exact same time? Which in itself makes no sense.
Then we're being told that a "vast majority" of people in hospital are unvaccinated, which based on the above is literally a mathematical impossibility.
I don't doubt the hospital or case number figures but at this point I'm completely lost with the rest of it. The whole point of the vaccine was to avoid this exact scenario and yet we're back in it at the exact earliest point in time it would have been possible to be
Because let's be honest, nobody actually knows how well the vaccine booster works against omnicron. They're just hoping it works - so am I, it's why I've got it and have encouraged my family to get it. It's a hail mary, or else we've got two pandemics happening simultaneously.I don't know if I'm being stupid here but I don't understand what the point in the vaccines or boosters is if we're now being told that hospital cases could end up double what they were last year unless we go into some kind of lockdown?
If a majority of people are vaccinated (90%), half triple vaccinated, and the vaccine offers the level of protection claimed, then the maths is a mile away from adding up here.
It was what, 1 in 30 at its peak last year, so over the course of the peak you can assume significantly more than 1 in 30 had covid. Possibly more than double that. Now 50% (and growing) of those would have around 70% protection, and almost all would have some vaccine or anti body protection. So for hospital admissions to be double last year you're getting close to everyone in the country needing to have covid at the exact same time? Which in itself makes no sense.
Then we're being told that a "vast majority" of people in hospital are unvaccinated, which based on the above is literally a mathematical impossibility.
I don't doubt the hospital or case number figures but at this point I'm completely lost with the rest of it. The whole point of the vaccine was to avoid this exact scenario and yet we're back in it at the exact earliest point in time it would have been possible to be
They add bitcoin to the vaccine, put your arm against any contactless card Machine...I’m kind of going off vaccines now I’ve had three of them and my cheque from big pharma still hasn’t arrived
Protection from infection by recent past infection is reckoned to have fallen from around 85% to below 20%. There's a real chance that the only unvaxxed ones it won't infect are the under 15s who got it this autumn.I don't know if I'm being stupid here but I don't understand what the point in the vaccines or boosters is if we're now being told that hospital cases could end up double what they were last year unless we go into some kind of lockdown?
If a majority of people are vaccinated (90%), half triple vaccinated, and the vaccine offers the level of protection claimed, then the maths is a mile away from adding up here.
It was what, 1 in 30 at its peak last year, so over the course of the peak you can assume significantly more than 1 in 30 had covid. Possibly more than double that. Now 50% (and growing) of those would have around 70% protection, and almost all would have some vaccine or anti body protection. So for hospital admissions to be double last year you're getting close to everyone in the country needing to have covid at the exact same time? Which in itself makes no sense.
Then we're being told that a "vast majority" of people in hospital are unvaccinated, which based on the above is literally a mathematical impossibility.
I don't doubt the hospital or case number figures but at this point I'm completely lost with the rest of it. The whole point of the vaccine was to avoid this exact scenario and yet we're back in it at the exact earliest point in time it would have been possible to be
The bolded has never really made much sense, in fact it’s always sounded preposterous, especially after what we saw here and what started to happen with most high case load countries pre-lockdown.I don't know if I'm being stupid here but I don't understand what the point in the vaccines or boosters is if we're now being told that hospital cases could end up double what they were last year unless we go into some kind of lockdown?
If a majority of people are vaccinated (90%), half triple vaccinated, and the vaccine offers the level of protection claimed, then the maths is a mile away from adding up here.
It was what, 1 in 30 at its peak last year, so over the course of the peak you can assume significantly more than 1 in 30 had covid. Possibly more than double that. Now 50% (and growing) of those would have around 70% protection, and almost all would have some vaccine or anti body protection. So for hospital admissions to be double last year you're getting close to everyone in the country needing to have covid at the exact same time? Which in itself makes no sense.
Then we're being told that a "vast majority" of people in hospital are unvaccinated, which based on the above is literally a mathematical impossibility.
I don't doubt the hospital or case number figures but at this point I'm completely lost with the rest of it. The whole point of the vaccine was to avoid this exact scenario and yet we're back in it at the exact earliest point in time it would have been possible to be
It doesn't make sense because you've just made up the numbers in your head. 23% of the adult population have antibodies from infection (source), in total. Last winter's peak (December and January) added 2.1m reported cases, 19% of the total cases reported since the pandemic started. We've already had 2m reported cases since the beginning of November. So for hospitalisations to double, the number would be much, much smaller than half the population being infected simultaneously.I don't know if I'm being stupid here but I don't understand what the point in the vaccines or boosters is if we're now being told that hospital cases could end up double what they were last year unless we go into some kind of lockdown?
If a majority of people are vaccinated (90%), half triple vaccinated, and the vaccine offers the level of protection claimed, then the maths is a mile away from adding up here.
It was what, 1 in 30 at its peak last year, so over the course of the peak you can assume significantly more than 1 in 30 had covid. Possibly more than double that. Now 50% (and growing) of those would have around 70% protection, and almost all would have some vaccine or anti body protection. So for hospital admissions to be double last year you're getting close to everyone in the country needing to have covid at the exact same time? Which in itself makes no sense.
Then we're being told that a "vast majority" of people in hospital are unvaccinated, which based on the above is literally a mathematical impossibility.
I don't doubt the hospital or case number figures but at this point I'm completely lost with the rest of it. The whole point of the vaccine was to avoid this exact scenario and yet we're back in it at the exact earliest point in time it would have been possible to be
But then this doesn't explain the 6,000 deaths a day claim and also doesn't explain why this problem of short term admissions has only come into view now when it would have been something that could easily be pre-empted and would surely have been a problem during the first two waves?Not all hospital admissions are the same.
In Delta and previous waves issues was about severe disease. ITU admission with prolonged admissions that reduced capacity and we were looking at potential shortages of oxygen along with beds. Coupled with staff shortages.
If the boosters can prevent severe disease even with hospital admissions its worth doing. People who are vaccinated usually get admitted on acute medical wards for symptoms that need investigating like chest pain with no underlying significant pathology and discharged quick, or if they require a few litres of oxygen but are otherwise not having much complications we can step them down onto community hospitals.
Vaccinations, and the booster, are a huge game changer in breaking the link between severe disease and covid. So far held up steady. But overwhelming numbers of cases translating into pressures on account of "small percentage of a big number" as previously mentioned potentially a big problem, now with added little appetite sociopolitically for lockdown measures, we might be walking into another dangerous territory if case numbers acutely continue to skyrocket like this
We haven't got two pandemics. We've got a virus that's mutating which is exactly what viruses do and will continue to do, every single year.Because let's be honest, nobody actually knows how well the vaccine booster works against omnicron. They're just hoping it works - so am I, it's why I've got it and have encouraged my family to get it. It's a hail mary, or else we've got two pandemics happening simultaneously.
This does make it all make a bit more sense but then essentially comes back to the vaccines being potentially next to worthless. If only the booster offers significant protection and even then only maybe/hopefully...and the next variant will be back in the same boat again but with twice as many leaks.Protection from infection by recent past infection is reckoned to have fallen from around 85% to below 20%. There's a real chance that the only unvaxxed ones it won't infect are the under 15s who got it this autumn.
For the vaccinated, similar dramatic falls have happened. However, the boosters may have pushed protection back up to around 70% + (early figures with wide error margin)
Instead of a pool of about 8m people (mostly children) available to get infected with Delta, Omicron immediately has a much bigger pool (maybe the equivalent of 40m in the UK), and it spreads easily.
Most scientists believe that it will infect a big percentage of that group within months if we live our normal pre-covid lives. Most of them also believe that past infection or prior vaccination will reduce hospitalisation, severe disease and death in those who do get infected - but they don't know by how much.
Even so, a small percentage of 40m is huge. If 1% of those infected get hospitalised that would be 400k. 400k, with the majority arriving in January, maybe 10k admissions/day if no action is taken, is a horror story.
It's easy to see how bad it can get. We've got key information missing when we try to predict what it will really do though - how much protection from hospitalisation do we have once we catch it, how severe is the Omicron variant compared to Delta? We just don't know, but there are glimmers of good news among the gloom
Personally I think the spike in cases and the warnings will send such a shockwave through the system that people will try not to kill their grannies for Christmas. I hope so anyway.
Get well soonJust tested positive on a lateral flow earlier. My partner has had it for a few days now (she got it from a Work Christmas Party) and was hoping I’d sneakily avoid it but nope. Throat felt a bit annoying yesterday, and had this slight headache all day that I just couldn’t get rid off.
Today however, just completely sapped of energy, constantly needing to nap. Head is banging. Had a fair few lemsips now. Gonna have to isolate Christmas Day which really sucks, not much to be done about it though.
We’ve both had the double vaccine but no booster.
Yeah it's ridiculous particularly after last year. If we're going to have a lockdown I'd rather know now and I'd rather it start now than suddenly get announced on Christmas Eve.Our cnut Government would be better giving some clarity so people know where they stand...announce an 8pm curfew from tomorrow night on hospitality, and a 2 week lockdown to begin on 27th.
People will appreciate that a lot more imo that the constant worry around Xmas plans, the rumour mill, and ministers saying maybe this maybe that.
You’re forgetting this is unprecedented. The vaccines were developed before Omnicron raised its dirty head. Let’s see how it pans out. At this point they are rightly being cautious because if it’s super transmissible then the hospitals will be under more pressure during the winter months when they are already pushed from winter virals. And their own staff are isolating more tooI don't know if I'm being stupid here but I don't understand what the point in the vaccines or boosters is if we're now being told that hospital cases could end up double what they were last year unless we go into some kind of lockdown?
If a majority of people are vaccinated (90%), half triple vaccinated, and the vaccine offers the level of protection claimed, then the maths is a mile away from adding up here.
It was what, 1 in 30 at its peak last year, so over the course of the peak you can assume significantly more than 1 in 30 had covid. Possibly more than double that. Now 50% (and growing) of those would have around 70% protection, and almost all would have some vaccine or anti body protection. So for hospital admissions to be double last year you're getting close to everyone in the country needing to have covid at the exact same time? Which in itself makes no sense.
Then we're being told that a "vast majority" of people in hospital are unvaccinated, which based on the above is literally a mathematical impossibility.
I don't doubt the hospital or case number figures but at this point I'm completely lost with the rest of it. The whole point of the vaccine was to avoid this exact scenario and yet we're back in it at the exact earliest point in time it would have been possible to be
Exactly. I don’t see why people would argue against that point. Money is the Tory godTorries put money and the economy above anything else. They always have and always will.
When they start proposing restrictions that are going to tank the economy you know things are genuinely bad.
I heard that. It was unnecessarily bleak IMO. I mean, he could be right but still. Nobody needed to hear that right now. Read the fecking room, Leo.Listening to the radio earlier and Leo Varadker (ireland) says that he expected that over the next few years we can expect winter shutdowns or “steps back” and we should take the opportunity to do our stuff in other months. Or words to that effect.
troubling
It's not unprecedented for a virus to mutate though. It would be unprecedented for it not to. We know vaccines require updating and become less effective over time because we already have to account for this with other viruses.You’re forgetting this is unprecedented. The vaccines were developed before Omnicron raised its dirty head. Let’s see how it pans out. At this point they are rightly being cautious because if it’s super transmissible then the hospitals will be under more pressure during the winter months when they are already pushed from winter virals. And their own staff are isolating more too
If our health service being overwhelmed at winter was the precedence for shutdowns then we'd have had lockdowns the past 20 years.Listening to the radio earlier and Leo Varadker (ireland) says that he expected that over the next few years we can expect winter shutdowns or “steps back” and we should take the opportunity to do our stuff in other months. Or words to that effect.
troubling
I’m far from being some sort of libertarian nut job but that’s a mission creep that I’m a little anxious about. Ending up doomed to spending every winter from now on with restrictions on our behaviour when hospitals get no more slammed with sick people than they have done every winter since forever, just because these sick people now happen to have covid.If our health service being overwhelmed at winter was the precedence for shutdowns then we'd have had lockdowns the past 20 years.
In fairness, Leo is/was a doctor so probably knows more than most politicians but it still seems unnecessarily bleak. Most pandemics last 3-5 years and that's without the radical improvements in medicine we've had as well as almost unfathomably quick access to vaccines.
I'd join the anti vaxxers in that caseListening to the radio earlier and Leo Varadker (ireland) says that he expected that over the next few years we can expect winter shutdowns or “steps back” and we should take the opportunity to do our stuff in other months. Or words to that effect.
troubling
8pm curfew when the majority of the population is off work, one of the stupidest policies I've ever heard, that will do nothing but just encourage people to ram all their social activity into smaller hoursOur cnut Government would be better giving some clarity so people know where they stand...announce an 8pm curfew from tomorrow night on hospitality, and a 2 week lockdown to begin on 27th.
People will appreciate that a lot more imo that the constant worry around Xmas plans, the rumour mill, and ministers saying maybe this maybe that.