Top Four Race 2018/19

Leftback99

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:lol::lol: When we hammered Fulham "It's only Fulham".
They were seconds away from dropping points. I'm sure everyone also accepts that home games are easier than away regardless of the opposition. Maybe not...
They're eighth in the home league table. Even if they have had tough games it means those games are even harder for them away from home next time round.
Its really not a positive in any way.
How is it not a positive in any way that they have 9 home games left (out of 15) where they play no team above them? They can also drop points in at least 3 of them and still be ahead of us.
 

Adcuth

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Can someone post next 5 PL fixtures for each top 4 team?it would be interesting the order of fixtures and where points could be dropped etc
Liverpool.

Leicester (H)
West Ham (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Man Utd (A)
Watford (H)

City.

Newcastle (A)
Arsenal (H)
Chelsea (H)
Everton (A)
West Ham (H)

Spurs.

Watford (H)
Newcastle (H)
Leicester (H)
Burnley (A)
Chelsea (A)

Chelsea.

Bournemouth (A)
Huddersfield (H)
Man City (A)
Brighton (H)
Spurs (H)

Arsenal.

Cardiff (H)
Man City (A)
Huddersfield (A)
Southampton (H)
Bournemouth (H)

Man Utd.

Burnley (H)
Leicester (A)
Fulham (A)
Liverpool (H)
C Palace (A)
 
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Suedesi

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I certainly wouldn't, that's absolutely pathetic. CL is massively important, financially and for signing players. How can any Manchester United supporter not want what is best for Manchester United? Liverpool have started progressing because they got CL football and become attractive to players like Van Dijk and Alisson. Yes their fans, media will be annoying but next September hearing the Europa League music at Old Trafford while all other big clubs played CL in the days before would be more annoying.
This
 

Scroto Baggins

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Was a draw enough for Fulham though, or did they need to go for the win? They might be at the point where wins are required and draws are simply not good enough to keep them up. In which case if you lose going for the win the reality being it matters little you have thrown away a draw because a draw gets you relegated anyway.
 

Tommy

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Was a draw enough for Fulham though, or did they need to go for the win? They might be at the point where wins are required and draws are simply not good enough to keep them up. In which case if you lose going for the win the reality being it matters little you have thrown away a draw because a draw gets you relegated anyway.
A draw would've left them 6 points from safety with 15 games left - It was more than enough for a match versus Spurs.
 

P-Nut

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Liverpool.

Leicester (H)
West Ham (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Man Utd (A)
Watford (H)

City.

Newcastle (A)
Arsenal (H)
Chelsea (H)
Everton (A)
West Ham (H)

Spurs.

Watford (H)
Newcastle (H)
Leicester (H)
Burnley (A)
Chelsea (A)

Chelsea.

Bournemouth (A)
Huddersfield (H)
Man City (A)
Brighton (H)
Spurs (H)
I think they meant the teams fighting for top 4 :lol:
 

cyberman

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They were seconds away from dropping points. I'm sure everyone also accepts that home games are easier than away regardless of the opposition. Maybe not...

How is it not a positive in any way that they have 9 home games left (out of 15) where they play no team above them? They can also drop points in at least 3 of them and still be ahead of us.
Because they've played every top side at home and are only 7 points clear of fifth and lay 8th in the home table? They still have some horrendous away fixtures to navigate. They had a huge advantage with how the fixtures panned out and shit the bed quite frankly.
Chelsea are in the same boat. Every big game seemed to be at Stamford Bridge or Wembley so they have to suffer the reverse.
Its not even a freak occurrence, they finished 5th out of the top 6 last year in the home record table. Its just not a fortress and that much of an advantage for them as you're making it out to be.
If we had a handful of games left I would agree with you but there's 15 odd games left and their away fixtures leaves very little room for error at Wembley. I can't see how not having home advantage with their poor away record v top sides helps them in any way.
We welcome Chelsea / City and Liverpool to OT while they have to play them away. How is that advantageous? Would you not want an easier away fixture list than Home?
 

charlenefan

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They have 3 massive games against top 6 teams away. They aren't nailed on 3rd just yet.
Not sure people should be pointing to their home games as an advantage either, they've played 10 home games up till now and lost 4 of them. 2 of their 6 wins were narrow 1-0's as well
 

Canagel

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Thanks @Adcuth .
On paper we have the most comfortable run
Chelsea and Spurs will definitely drop some points.
 

LFCKop

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Based on second half performance for last 3 season and this season, I feel the the final standing could be something like this.
  1. 99 City
  2. 96 Liverpool
  3. 89 Spurs
  4. 85 United
  5. 80 Chelsea
  6. 75 Arsenal
 

bondsname

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Based on second half performance for last 3 season and this season, I feel the the final standing could be something like this.
  1. 99 City
  2. 96 Liverpool
  3. 89 Spurs
  4. 85 United
  5. 80 Chelsea
  6. 75 Arsenal
No way we are getting 85 points of possible 89.
 

Trizy

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Lovely catch 22 for Man Utd coming up. Do you try and beat City and go for fourth, or sacrifice that and bend over to try and stop us from winning the title?
I don't think United as a club are that petty as some of the fans sound (on the Caf). Every game is a must win game, regardless of being 1st or 18th.

Can't say the same for Gerrard setting up Drogba for his goal, though.
 

crossy1686

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Based on second half performance for last 3 season and this season, I feel the the final standing could be something like this.
  1. 99 City
  2. 96 Liverpool
  3. 89 Spurs
  4. 85 United
  5. 80 Chelsea
  6. 75 Arsenal
Those are some inflated numbers.

Bear in mind that mid to high 80's is Championship form, high 90's is record breaking form. Those lot are going to drop more points than you think.
 

Lam

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24 Feb (or earlier) - level on points with Chelsea

2 Marc (or earlier) - level on points with Spurs
 

Havak

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No Dele Alli until March for Spurs now as well. They could really struggle through much of Feb if the likes of Son, Moura, and Sissoko don't come back rocking soon.
 

Klopper76

"Did you see Fabinho against Red Star & Cardiff?"
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I think Spurs might miss out now. They're not far enough ahead of 5th to feel comfortable without Kane & Alli for two months, plus Son is unavailable too.
 
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Think Spurs will hold on to third, but it's the least comfortable scenario possible for them, really: Last half of the season, injured key players, and us going on a really good run of form. If we had been somewhat less terrible under Mourinho we would catch up for sure.
 

Klopper76

"Did you see Fabinho against Red Star & Cardiff?"
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Think Spurs will hold on to third, but it's the least comfortable scenario possible for them, really: Last half of the season, injured key players, and us going on a really good run of form. If we had been somewhat less terrible under Mourinho we would catch up for sure.
They're still in four competitions as well. It'd be impressive if Pochettino can win something and keep them in the top four after losing three key players all at once.
 

charlenefan

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So him and Kane will be back roughly at the same time. Feck those games will be hard fo Spurs
 

RedDevilRoshi

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This is the last thing on Earth Spurs would have wanted. A serious injury to another of their important players. They are definitely in the running now along with ourselves, Chelsea & Arsenal.

No doubt they will be wrapping Christian Eriksen up in cotton wool.
 

Shark

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I find myself having to double check the table when I read we’re only 3 points off. How the feck did that happen? :lol:

Only a month or so ago we were doomed.
 

Minimalist

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Doing a bit of mental masturbation with the figures (basic stuff admittedly) to see what we're dealing with from this point on in the league. Might as well post it here for the craic.

So the Mean Fourth Place Team Points for the Last 5 seasons is 73 points (min = 70, max = 79).

So using that as a guide, we're in need of 9-12 wins from the remaining 15 depending on the season it ends up being.

Interesting to see we actually have more wins and points than the recent seasons when we failed to secure a top four finish. So not the worst we've been off at this stage. And another pat on the back to Ole frankly (given Mourinho's win% was a miserly 41% over 17 matches)

Man Utd @ Game 23:
2018/19 - 44 points (13 wins) - ?
2017/18 - 50 points (15 wins) - Finished 2nd
2016/17 - 42 points (11 wins) - Finished 6th
2015/16 - 37 points (10 wins) - Finished 5th
2014/15 - 43 points (12 wins) - Finished 4th

2013/14 - 40 points (12 wins) - Finished 7th
 

Mb194dc

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Doing a bit of mental masturbation with the figures (basic stuff admittedly) to see what we're dealing with from this point on in the league. Might as well post it here for the craic.

So the Mean Fourth Place Team Points for the Last 5 seasons is 73 points (min = 70, max = 79).

So using that as a guide, we're in need of 9-12 wins from the remaining 15 depending on the season it ends up being.

Interesting to see we actually have more wins and points than the recent seasons when we failed to secure a top four finish. So not the worst we've been off at this stage. And another pat on the back to Ole frankly (given Mourinho's win% was a miserly 41% over 17 matches)

Man Utd @ Game 23:
2018/19 - 44 points (13 wins) - ?
2017/18 - 50 points (15 wins) - Finished 2nd
2016/17 - 42 points (11 wins) - Finished 6th
2015/16 - 37 points (10 wins) - Finished 5th
2014/15 - 43 points (12 wins) - Finished 4th

2013/14 - 40 points (12 wins) - Finished 7th
The league has got weaker.

I don't see Utd dropping many points given recent form. I expect you'll get 80+ points, 12 out of 15 wins and a draw or two. Maybe lose to City only.

We (Chelsea) need to match that form to make top 4, hopefully get a result in Spurs home game to have chance to overtake them. Or win Europa League.
 

Finn MacCool

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Based on second half performance for last 3 season and this season, I feel the the final standing could be something like this.
  1. 99 City
  2. 96 Liverpool
  3. 89 Spurs
  4. 85 United
  5. 80 Chelsea
  6. 75 Arsenal
To date there has never been a prem season where more than one team ends up on 90+ points. It does look like it could happen this year though. For City to get 99 pts they require 14 wins and one draw. Possible but very difficult especially considering how many cup games they will have as well. I think more realistic totals would see the winner and runner up on 95 and 91, with fourth place on 80 (still a record for 4th).
 

ShadesOfTomato

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To date there has never been a prem season where more than one team ends up on 90+ points. It does look like it could happen this year though. For City to get 99 pts they require 14 wins and one draw. Possible but very difficult especially considering how many cup games they will have as well. I think more realistic totals would see the winner and runner up on 95 and 91, with fourth place on 80 (still a record for 4th).
I can see City doing that. They look at their clinical best right now and confidence will be raised even further when they put 6 past Arsenal.
 

Tommy

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I can see City doing that. They look at their clinical best right now and confidence will be raised even further when they put 6 past Arsenal.
Pretty sure the Caf could put six past Arsenal.

If Arsenal can avoid defeat vs City, I think they'll have a chance at top 4.
 

Finn MacCool

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I can see City doing that. They look at their clinical best right now and confidence will be raised even further when they put 6 past Arsenal.
If City did manage that it would mean we could afford one defeat and one draw - two defeats and it would go to goal difference.

They do look good right now and we play after them for most of the upcoming game weeks, which will add pressure if they continue to win. I’m glad they have the LC Final the same weekend we play Utd because with our abysmal record at OT we’re almost certain to drop points. City’s game at Everton will be rescheduled.
 

breakout67

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I have both Liverpool and City finishing on 95 points give or take 2 points. I would say City will drop points against United and Chelsea, while Liverpool will drop points against United, Everton and Chelsea.

Liverpool have a little leeway while City will probably have to win atleast 13 games. It's Liverpool's to lose and I would say performance in the big games (United, Chelsea, Everton) is what will decide it.
 

Kapardin

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Watch Fatty drag Chelsea over the line tomorrow with a couple of goals after another terrible overall performance. They got the striker they needed to see them through.
 

Pagh Wraith

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Watch Fatty drag Chelsea over the line tomorrow with a couple of goals after another terrible overall performance. They got the striker they needed to see them through.
I keep saying this but it is Spurs that need seeing through. Even with the headstart they have it could get tough without three of their four best players. Chelsea are a level above United and this hasn't been changed by the resurgence under Solskjaer. With or without Higuain. The main benefit of his arrival is actually Hazard being pushed to his natural and best position.