Their draw would have to be fecking incredible to win the CL with (in descending order of problems) Clichy/Kolarov at LB, Fernandinho + Yaya in a 2 man midfield and Hart in net.
----Aguero-----
-----------Sterling
--KDB-Silva-----
----Yaya---------
------XXX--------
XXX-------Zabaleta
Otamendi-Kompany
------Hart--------
This team could do it, but you'd have to have a great DM and pretty good LB, I think. Odds are they'd have to beat one of Madrid/Barca/Bayern and right now it's Kolarov/Clichy marking Bale, Messi or Robben/Muller.
I'd say the CL looks like this, attaching rough numbers to it:
Favorite- 30%
Barca - The worse they play the more their front 3 can counter. Hell of a proposition.
Serious Contenders - 36% (18% each)
Bayern - Lahm back at FB and their team looks incredible
Madrid - Benitez is a good tactician and if they get De Gea their worst starter is Varane/Pepe and their 2nd worst is probably Benzema, which is insane.
A Chance - 30% (5% each)
Atletico - Narrowly lost to Madrid last time and they've added a nice player in Vietto, as well as bringing back Filipe Luis, so probably a hair stronger. If they had gotten Motta from PSG i'd have them in their own tier and PSG one below.
Juventus - Have the D. Pirlo leaving is fine but Vidal and Tevez is too much. Dybala would have to immediately tear things up, I think.
PSG - Midfield balance is incredible and Di Maria's energy will help. Ibra going might actually help in big games where Cavani's hard work and pace may be more helpful.
Chelsea - Mourinho and a good squad. Probably need to park the bus, but they can do that.
United - Look very solid defensively, would need to do a Chelsea 2012
Juventus - Have the D. Pirlo leaving is fine but Vidal and Tevez is too much. Dybala would have to immediately tear things up, I think.
Citeh - Maybe the strongest of the 4 in this group in terms of getting to the QFs, but the most obvious weak links once they get there
Very outside chance - 4% (1% each)
Sevilla - 2 Europa Leagues in a row shows they can win knockout competitions. Won't be scared of the big teams
Arsenal - Have the talent, but still lack the defensive nous and toughness. Mertesacker and a high line is also doom, as is a 2 man midfield with Cazorla (as good as he is) and a child (as good as he is) at RB.
Valencia - Losing Otamendi probably kills even this, but they aren't bad
Everyone else - Led by Roma and Borussia MG (both good on the counter, and you're not outplaying the teams above, so that's probably the best route)