Remember when Obama won POTUS and everybody said the republican party was dead?
Westminster Politics
- Thread starter altodevil
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Remember when Obama won POTUS and everybody said the republican party was dead?
True enough. This is also why PR is unlikely to happen. Whoever is elected as a majority in a FPTP system is not going to propose PR as in their view it would curtail their own current and future power.
I think the only way it happens is a PR allience with labour the libs, The SNP, the greens on board
Promice the SNP indy ref 2 once the PR legistlation is passed
then all 4 agree that only one candidate stands per constituency and explicitly in the manifesto the first legistlation that will be enacted is PR
i think all except for labour would get on board with this - might labour change their stance - I hope so
There are some moves towards pushing for this
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/br...vists-push-for-electoral-reform-the-i-7391738
but thats the only way I see it passing
Any form of hung parliament might end up with PR if that became a condition of coalition, although the details would have to be nailed down first, unlike the last time.
I don't believe the Tories are guaranteed an overall majority for a minute, there is always change and the unexpected.
absolutly - there will at some point be an enquiry into the handling of Covid
Pritti Patel will no dount be pushing for some form of reintroductions of poor houses
Boris will be fluffing his lines
Sunak will be trying to push him out
Gove will be ***-ping himself silly ready to plunge a knife into sunaks back
the realites of paying for covid and the reality of post brexit trade will be real by then
the push for indy ref 2 will be well underway
who knows what will be going off on the irish border by then
Farrage and Fox will be trying to out biggot and bluster each other and take whatever is left of the brexit vote
and as you say a while bunch of unknows as well
I can't see the SNP agreeing given that they'd half their seats in a PR system. Possibly in return for a referendum but I can't see Labour (or even the Lib Dems) agreeing to that.
Even Labour are generally overrepresented in terms of MPs compared with vote share, so they would effectively be conceding that they are happy to never solely run the country (only as one of a 3-5 party coalition).
Finally they will be acutely aware that as part of a PR system a centre right Tory and further right party (ala UKIP, Brexit Party, Reclaim etc) would be as likely as a left leaning rainbow coalition.
yup thats what labour would have to get on board with
effectivley giving up the chance for sole power knowing it is unlikley the conservatives could ever attain it either
A more social democratic European type governance
as for the SNP - i think only for indy ref 2 would they get on board ... but if Labour and Libs were committed into PR then that would probably be a valid trade off for them as they wouldnt need that SNP block of mps in westminister after any reforms
Not sure labour are ready to get on board with the idea but given the last election and foots election campaign pretty much shows they will never get into power pushing a far left agenda then almost guaranteeing a centre left governance does not seem like a bad outcome
I imagine Labour will also be aware that after PR were enacted the likelihood is that the Lib Dems would just end up auctioning their 10-20% to the highest bidder (in terms of power) whether it be the Tories or Labour.
You'd effectively see the Lib Dems making the Tories less authoritarian, but no different economically; or making Labour more right economically. Effectively both situations would become very similar.
The reason the FPTP system survives is because, by and large it works; even when there is no clear winner, a forced 'coalition' emerges that can 'get things done', not everything, but enough to suit the major parties election pledges.
Thereafter, usually the junior party in the 'coalition' then gets 'pasted' at the next election because the price for joining a coalition/so called 'sharing power' is that you have to give up at least one of the policies you gained the majority of your votes on, and therefore disappoint your bedrock supporters, who hit back at the next GE... see Lib Dems and Univ Fees etc.
Smaller parties are usually too scared to risk 'joining together' for obvious reasons, not only that, but the public has demonstrated time and again it knows how to vote strategically, it doesn't need one party to say 'heh vote for me, but if I get in I am going to vote for another party's policies!
An 80 seat majority in Parliament is a strong position, even if all the other parties voted together they cannot defeat the Government, only elements within its own side going 'rogue' can do that. To lose that sort of majority in one GE is unlikely, it could take two or three GE's to breakdown such dominance. However history does show that when any government gets past three successful GE's it usually finishes up shooting itself in the foot, either internal squabbles, or 'dirty tricks' uncovered, or PM's or other senior Ministers getting caught out in scandals, etc.
A lot depends upon what the UK indeed the world looks like after the pandemic, how much has changed temporarily how much permanently and is there anyone who really knows what to do in these new circumstances? If not the tendency will be to stick with what you know!
The Tories always see themselves as the 'natural' Party of Government and history suggest they are right, because the truth is the UK or most of it is conservative albeit with a small 'c'.
Thereafter, usually the junior party in the 'coalition' then gets 'pasted' at the next election because the price for joining a coalition/so called 'sharing power' is that you have to give up at least one of the policies you gained the majority of your votes on, and therefore disappoint your bedrock supporters, who hit back at the next GE... see Lib Dems and Univ Fees etc.
Smaller parties are usually too scared to risk 'joining together' for obvious reasons, not only that, but the public has demonstrated time and again it knows how to vote strategically, it doesn't need one party to say 'heh vote for me, but if I get in I am going to vote for another party's policies!
An 80 seat majority in Parliament is a strong position, even if all the other parties voted together they cannot defeat the Government, only elements within its own side going 'rogue' can do that. To lose that sort of majority in one GE is unlikely, it could take two or three GE's to breakdown such dominance. However history does show that when any government gets past three successful GE's it usually finishes up shooting itself in the foot, either internal squabbles, or 'dirty tricks' uncovered, or PM's or other senior Ministers getting caught out in scandals, etc.
A lot depends upon what the UK indeed the world looks like after the pandemic, how much has changed temporarily how much permanently and is there anyone who really knows what to do in these new circumstances? If not the tendency will be to stick with what you know!
The Tories always see themselves as the 'natural' Party of Government and history suggest they are right, because the truth is the UK or most of it is conservative albeit with a small 'c'.
Usually would imply this is based off a reasonable dataset
I'm not sure it is though
No doubt that happened with the last coalition but the other coalitions
Well we had the war time governments but that's not really comparable
I don't think the "coupon coalition" of 1918 is either
And that's pretty much the data set... so I'm not sure you can draw "usual" conclusions from it
There is a much stronger tradition of minority government than coalitions in the UK
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I am shocked, I tell you. Shocked.
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They could ban elections tomorrow and no-one would give a shit.
Yeah saw this. Needs a proper investigation. Cameron not satisfied by starting Brexit, fecker is trying to rip off taxpayer as well.
one down... now just prtii patel to stick the knife into before he can off boris an become PM
One down? This isn’t going to have any effect on Rishi whatsoever. I saw the piece about it on BBC News last night and the way they worded Sunak’s release of his text message correspondence would have you believe it was an act of transparency and altruism on his part and not the subject of a FOIA request that he had fulfilled with a selective release.
one down... now just prtii patel to stick the knife into before he can off boris an become PM
This will have no effect on anyone, there isn’t the appetite in the media to follow this through, Rishi will be Prime Minister within the next 18 months.
I was quoting a single data set its true, but it was the one in living memory and which has set the recent tone.
I agree minority governments with working relationships with one or more parties rather than formal coalitions have been the norm. Mrs. May's arrangement with the DUP for example.
However I still maintain that what will set the framework for going forward is the 'state of play' (around the world) after the pandemic. It could replicate a wartime situation, hopefully without the military aspect, but in lots of other areas as we are witnessing with the Vaccines, battles of wills, economic and social pressure will become the norm, inside each country, and even between 'friends'.
In such circumstances either a coalition is formed, or I suspect by then the Tories, (who may still be carrying a 20+ seat majority in Parliament) will have positioned themselves as the prime nationalist party in England and claim they are already a party of National Unity. Lets be honest at the moment nobody can touch them.
Things do change, so there is always hope, but the UK is going to need a whole lot of 'new breed' Members of Parliament, who do not lose touch with their supporters, who are not susceptible to 'pressure groups', who practice what they preach (not do as I say) I am in my 75th year and in my life thus far I have only known of a handful of (British) politicians who met this criteria and I think all but one are now passed on.
I wish future generations a better set of politicians than I 've known, but it will be their own fault if they don't get them, "we get the government we deserve" its a basic law of democracy.
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They can do absolutely fecking anything and there's no backlash.
It really doesn't. See my earlier post about representation.
Looking at the fecking state of him.
Christ, look at him. Vile.
Was he the one that said “pwwweaaaase”?
Yup the one where the poor girl said she was having bad mental health so he told her she wouldn't have if she also thought of the 'fun times' they could have together.
The Tories are just mortally bankrupt. Wonder if Labour will dare say anything on this.
Labour ain’t got the guts to say anything, something else that will get swept under the carpet as per.
I understand what you mean, but when you take the two major parties votes together this totally outstrips collectively the smaller party's votes, so in that sense 'first past the post', it works for the majority of voters.
TFPTP will never work for the smaller minority parties, but it does produce workable Governments.
As much of a Corbynista I am and as much as I want to see all these corrupt feckers burn, is any of this going to be properly investigated and acted upon, messing sackings and/or resignations?
no chance.
Hopefully Keir Starmer will say something that will keep it in the newscycle. But the Tories are shameless and unfortunately this story will be forgotten by the mid week (hopefully i'm wrong)
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The FT has had a Greensill front page story on Greensill every day for days now and the Times has written a lot on it. The story isn't going away, it's going to escalate if anything.
Will be amazing if it doesn't result in some review of lobbying laws at the very least. Hopefully should kill many of Cameron's lucrative earnings channels.
Surely the Tories wouldn't use Phillip's death as a convenient distraction to deflect criticism?
Democracy isn't dead, it just smells funny.
Democracy isn't dead, it just smells funny.
Phillip has been dead for months, they’ve just been saving him for a moment like this.
Maybe, but then again they haven't needed any distractions to deflect criticism recently. If by some miracle the media actually report a scandal, and if by some even bigger miracle they report it long enough for it to gain traction with the public, and if by some unbelievably nigh impossible miracle they ask the Tories for a comment about it on Newsnight or what not, they just get fobbed off and that's the end of the matter as far as they're concerned.
This would make sense if the Tories gave a toss about the matter, but they absolutely don't. And as far as the general public goes, they don't care either.
Personally I think political corruption deserves some serious prison time, and if our laws don't produce that then we need new laws.
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I'll remember this excuse the next time I try and rob a bank.
To be fair he was robbing tax payers on behalf of a bank. Big difference.
Unfortunately, I very much doubt that even a tiny minority of the electorate know or will take the slightest bit of notice of this. They will be more interested in going to the shops tomorrow.
You get the government you deserve.