It's on...
Top Four Race 2018/19
- Thread starter Damien
- Start date
Got the makings of a classic title run in at the moment, should also have the drama of the battle for CL spots. Need a few draws amongst the top clubs to condense it up a bit more though.
So you mean the season isn’t finished after all?
You may be a right candidate for Optimists Unite club..Let’s hope not!Arsenal can drop points elsewhere, please.
Yes when Spurs beat you 4-1 or something.
Still though way season has gone certainly won't begrude Man. United enjoying next few weeks.
Maybe yes as Jose said we will be there comes the boxing day
Why? Because I don’t want liverpool to win the league? That should be obligatory.
I know a secret brotherhood that hasn't given up the hopes for the league title... They are called the Optimists unite
You should concern yourself with trying to get out of the Championship.
Psst... If you could be convinced that Mou was the bees knees, you could be convinced of anything tbh
Not yet.
I'd bet more on us winning games and the others not winning. Like if Chelsea doesn't win today, both Arsenal and Chelsea would not have won, and that's 2pts gap reduced.
6 points as it stands...
The Europa League will give Arsenal and Chelsea a headache.
It's our job to keep the pressure on.
It's our job to keep the pressure on.
We will also easily win our 4th CL title. Please consider my application.
Btw. I'm pretty sure we will catch Arsenal. They are nothing special to say the least.
And that foreign coaches' teams tend to tire towards the end of their first seasons in charge, presumably because they're not used to not having a winter break.
I think 4th is very much achievable.
Back to 8
Back to 8 (plus 1 more point for GD) which gives scale of the task for Man. United.
It's still between Chelsea and Arsenal imo.
It's still between Chelsea and Arsenal imo.
Chelsea so dependent on Hazard.
Chelsea do not rotate much, it’s bound to catch up with them at some point.
Bah, humbug!
It's not really. Arsenal have been massively overachieving (as have Spurs but on a higher level) and will fade away. City/Liverpool for the title and Spurs/Chelsea for 3rd place.
This "over-achieving" nonsense has been trotted out about Spurs every season for the last several years, usually coupled with the claim that many of our rivals have "under-achieved". At some point you need to recognise that Spurs' league placings - 3rd, 2nd, 3rd and now currently 2nd again - are just a reflection of the team's actual quality.
That's because you perceive as an attack on or a belittlement of your team. Spurs are clearly one of the four best teams in the league and have been for years under Poch which is a fantastic achievement. They are also comfortably a level below City and Liverpool at the moment. Last season's big overachievers were Man United and Burnley and I spent the whole season pointing out that these statistical outliers are going to regress toward the mean. Which is evident now as both sides are right where they belong. Same thing with Spurs and Arsenal this season who both have inflated point tallies compared to their performances.
Shame about Chelsea today. Their next 2 games are Palace away and South home. Hopefully they drop at least 2 points or something.
Being in 2nd currently is hardly is a "statistical outlier" when we've finished top 3 the last three seasons running.
Think you are misreading @Pagh Wraith here. He says we have overachieved relative to our performances (implicit: this season). In other words, we have more points than what you'd expect from our performances. Even as a Spurs fan I can agree with that.
We have definately won more away matches than our performances deserve. I.e last game against Everton we were down 0-1 when they had what looked like a perfectly legit goal disallowed. Seems likely the story of that match could have been quite different if that goal had stood.
Only thing I'd like to ad to it though is: so has even Liverpool! They are on such a good run now, that it's easy to forget they've had quite some luck earlier in in the season picking up the points they have. I seem to recall we were denied a stone cold penalty in the last minute against them at wembley for instance.. (Not that they weren't better than us, but on a normal day the penalty is given and they probably loose 2 points there)
Oh, Spurs have definitely overachieved compared to performances so far this season. The defence is secret trash, and the 18 GA already somehow still flatters them.
Thing is, Liverpool has also overachieved. xG isn't everything, but it's a window into how performances have been overall and where to expect improvement/regression. Liverpool's defence has been excellent, but not THIS excellent. Their xGA is 15.01 compared to the only 7 they have conceded. (Spurs is a shocking 23.15) and you can probably expect it to fall back towards it's natural level over the second half of the season. Still excellent, but not all time great. City has basically performed right to their level ... so we should probably see both Spurs and Liverpool slip back towards them a bit (or behind them) if things stay the same in the 2nd half of the season. However, points in the bank don't expire and Liverpool has already built such a big lead (6 points over 19 matches is actually quite a lot to overcome - having to be 0.32 ppg better is a huge ask) that even a bit of a regression will probably not hurt them too much.
I bet it finishes Liverpool, City and then Spurs.
Thing is, Liverpool has also overachieved. xG isn't everything, but it's a window into how performances have been overall and where to expect improvement/regression. Liverpool's defence has been excellent, but not THIS excellent. Their xGA is 15.01 compared to the only 7 they have conceded. (Spurs is a shocking 23.15) and you can probably expect it to fall back towards it's natural level over the second half of the season. Still excellent, but not all time great. City has basically performed right to their level ... so we should probably see both Spurs and Liverpool slip back towards them a bit (or behind them) if things stay the same in the 2nd half of the season. However, points in the bank don't expire and Liverpool has already built such a big lead (6 points over 19 matches is actually quite a lot to overcome - having to be 0.32 ppg better is a huge ask) that even a bit of a regression will probably not hurt them too much.
I bet it finishes Liverpool, City and then Spurs.
Don't bother. Glaston takes issue with any post that isn't full-on fellating Spurs.
Pretty much this.
I agree, although 1st half of the season isn't equal to the second half. Fatigue, form, fixture congestion, pressure etc makes it different.
I am actually quite hopeful since we usually play better second half, but with league cup semi, CL etc., the fixtures could pile up.
Just don't think Chelsea are that good really. Can see them struggling to win many away games from this point.
Mind you even if they miss out on top 4 they are probably favourites for Europa so can get CL that way.
Don't think we can do it without strengthening in January.
I admit for sure I was wrong - so far under Ole we're playing the right way and Chelsea/Arsenal certainly aren't certain to be consistent. Just becomes a question of how many wins we can pick up compared to those two. Massive outsiders still but it's back in play for now.
Whilst I do agree we overachieved, I blame that mainly on Jose if that makes sense? We should on paper be a top 4 side every year at least in my mind.
He created his own demise pretty much. He had a left wing battle going on til Dec with Martial & Rashford and both were involved in goals regularly. Matic started brilliantly and he flogged a dead horse by persisting with him regardless of form. Throw in routine public slaughtering of players and killing off any positive / confident vibes that were to be found and setting up the team not to lose as apposed to winning games.
Basically what I'm saying is we've the makings of a very good squad on our hands with the right manager. It'll take some time, pain and strife to get there. Our squad is definitely is probably better than Arsenal's on paper, they are very reliant on Aubameyang and Ozil. Torreira has given them some energy and bite in midfield. Improved with Emery a bit this season but he's a long way to go with them.
Chelsea are extremely reliant on Hazard and have little else this season about them. They're 2nd top scorer is a squad part player in Pedro and then Morata who likewise is in and out of the side. Started the season well but starting to show similar form to when Conte was there last season now. As the season plays out and the further they go in the Europa League it'll wear on the squad and form drop off a bit I reckon, few hiccups already in recent weeks. Interesting to see how tomorrows game goes vs Palace.
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Very good post. I started a reply but you've basically covered it all. Saying Spurs have more points than they should at this moment doesn't take anything away from their status as a top 4 side. On the other hand I'm not a fan of accusing Spurs of 'bottling' it today as so many like to do on here. That is such a lazy argument. Wolves are a quality team (much more so than their points tally suggests) and losing to them is hardly an outrageous outcome. I wish more football fans would come to grips with short-term variance and how little single results matter and xG is indeed an excellent tool to help with that.
Can see us finishing above Arsenal at this rate to be honest. Chelsea will be more difficult though - the game against them at Old Trafford is crucial.
Sarri's teams historically have faded towards the end of the season, and that was in Italy with a winter break. I'm confident that Ole et al can do it.