I think we will drop points tomorrow night, which will then make it tough for us.
Top Four Race 2018/19
- Thread starter Damien
- Start date
I can't predict how this will end. Going by current form, United and Arsenal should get top 4. But we all know things don't work that way. The Chelsea and City home games will be crucial. We'll have to win atleast one of those two. The rest of the games are no walk in the park either. Wolves and Everton away games are still left. We can afford to lose only one game from these 5 fixtures. We need to win 5/7 which will take us to 76 points. This should be enough.
Id be so confident if we beat Wolves. From our 7 games left, I reckon we win vs West Ham, Huddersfield and Cardiff.
Then it comes down to the tough matches (Chelsea and City) but those are at home.
Which leaves the two tough away games, Wolves and Everton (who we should beat but its right after the Barca away game and Everton normally rise up against us at their ground)
Then it comes down to the tough matches (Chelsea and City) but those are at home.
Which leaves the two tough away games, Wolves and Everton (who we should beat but its right after the Barca away game and Everton normally rise up against us at their ground)
I think Wolves could rest a few players for their semi-final on the weekend.
We need to win the Wolves game or we'll find ourselves in 6th by the end of the weekend. Going 4 & 3 points behind Spurs and Arsenal respectively with their much superior GD would be a very difficult mountain to climb with only 6 games remaining. Ole mentioned that we needed 15 points to make the top 3, but I think we'll need more and an improved goal difference if we are to make it. We have Everton (a), City & Chelsea in a space for a week after the West Ham games. Will surely drop points in those fixtures.
If Newcastle somehow dont lose tonight, we could be 3rd Wednesday, for a few days. If we beat Brighton home
The game tomorrow will be key. Both us and Spurs will probably get maximum 1 point against City. I think Spurs might drop points in 1-2 games max of the rest given the easy games they have. Against Palace this week I see as the best chance for that to happen.
We really need a win to get top 4 tomorrow in my view. It will be hard, but we should be able to do it if we raise our game and learn from last time. Wolves will fight for it, but might not raise the game as much since they will also focus on the fa cup semi final.
We really need a win to get top 4 tomorrow in my view. It will be hard, but we should be able to do it if we raise our game and learn from last time. Wolves will fight for it, but might not raise the game as much since they will also focus on the fa cup semi final.
*Providing United fail to win on Tues that is...
Top4 is so tight. I think Spurs and Arsenal have an easier fixture list, and I see Chelsea concentrating on Europa. Gun to the head I'd say Spurs 3rd, Arsenal 4th, United 5th, Chelsea 6th.
We have an outside chance, that loss at the Emirates stings.
We have an outside chance, that loss at the Emirates stings.
Arsenal's fixtures are not as easy as it looks. They have to play away to Wolves, Watford, Everton and Leicester. With Arsenal's away record, I'll be surprised if they win even 2 of those.
And so does Tottenham
I wouldnt be surprised we come out 2w 2l 1 draw out of that. That itself may be enough though to get us through with 4th spot...we will see. Away games in general have been a problem. That international break did not help. We were just finding a bit of form.
Updated run-in with fixtures confirmed and FA cup run removed (
). I think we'll get a better sense of things after tomorrow. If anybody thinks Arsenal have the easiest run-in, they're having a laugh. All four teams have difficult run-ins for different reasons and different mitigations as to how each team can navigate them. The top 4 landscape is going to change week by week.
). I think we'll get a better sense of things after tomorrow. If anybody thinks Arsenal have the easiest run-in, they're having a laugh. All four teams have difficult run-ins for different reasons and different mitigations as to how each team can navigate them. The top 4 landscape is going to change week by week.
they have 5 away games from 7, how is their fixture easy?
In their last 8 away games they won only 1 game.
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Watford, Palace, Wolves and Leicester aren't easy games at all.
They are at this meaningless (for them) stage of the season. Maybe not in say January/February.
That Chelsea game will be massive
7th gets Europa League, no? That's as best any of them will likely get for a while and surely what they are aiming for other than a cup run (albeit one will make the final).
It’s impossible to call, all of the teams in the mix are capable of beating or losing to any of the other teams they face. I get the feeling we’re going to miss out though. We absolutely must win tomorrow.
We've got the easiest last 2 games in May. Burnley could be scrapping for their lives on the last day. Getting past Barca may be difficult. The other 3 could still be in European competition during May.
So many variables. Being as objective as possible, I had Arsenal finishing on 80/78 pts, United 78, Spurs 77 and Chelsea 74.
Really gonna be close.
So many variables. Being as objective as possible, I had Arsenal finishing on 80/78 pts, United 78, Spurs 77 and Chelsea 74.
Really gonna be close.
I wouldn't bet on us being in the CL next season.
Thanks,Jose.
Thanks,Jose.
Honestly? I've never seen fans of these types of clubs get all smitten about Europa. Or the manager/owners. That's not a snooty attitude issue, it's just everyone know what it will involve (loads of expensive to get to games in the arse end of Europe) and it just isn't that sexy.
Maybe the Wolves players might think differently because they would fancy themselves to win it and get into the CL but certainly not the likes of Leicester, Palace, etc. Everton have been there and got burned.
It could come down to how many we can put past Huddersfield and Cardiff (without conceding too many, of course). It’s going to be, as a more vulgar friend of mine is wont of saying, tighter than a nun’s habit...
I think the bookies have it right. Arsenal and Spurs will do it.
The shite served up by the players for 4 months didn't help, either.
Maybe your right but if I was a fan of one of those teams I'd enjoy it. They should be able to compete and get through the groups at least and possibly help attracting players where it's not all about money. I'll see how my Everton supporting colleague sees it tomorrow. Would be quite depressing if they don't fancy it as every season is just about staying in the league, especially when a lot of teams throw away the cups too.
5 away games left for Arsenal. They've only won 5/14 so far this season. Palace and Leicester have won more. They are still the outsiders for top 4 to me.
Just checked out the predictions on here before the season, and it looked like this:
(4 points for every 1st prediction, 3 for every 2nd, 2 for every 3rd and 1 for every 4th):
(4 points for every 1st prediction, 3 for every 2nd, 2 for every 3rd and 1 for every 4th):
- Man City - 208
- Liverpool - 149
- Man Utd - 100
- Chelsea - 52
- Spurs - 43
- Arsenal - 8
We are 5-2-2 in away matches outside the top six, which is the appropriate comparison set given that all the matches remaining are outside the top six. I'm sure we'll drop points in a couple of those away matches but if we win three of them - which we might not, but its not the toughest task either - and win our home games as well then it would be shocking if we didn't finish in the top four.
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I think Spurs and we will finish ahead of Chelsea and Arsenal. Arsenal is poor away from home and has 5 games away left, many of their opponents are chasing top 7 spots and Arsenal. Spurs have 5 home, I expect them to win many homes but and win one of their away games, can't see them winning at City.
If we win games at Everton, we'll be going to finish in the top 4 as we have 3 home games, two of them are City and Chelsea, I think we'll beat Chelsea comfortably, not sure about City.
If we win games at Everton, we'll be going to finish in the top 4 as we have 3 home games, two of them are City and Chelsea, I think we'll beat Chelsea comfortably, not sure about City.
Factor in 0 points for the City game?
Reality is we’ll go for it against them despite how it affects the title race. The board will be more concerned about the CL money that top 4 brings.
Reality is we’ll go for it against them despite how it affects the title race. The board will be more concerned about the CL money that top 4 brings.
I recommend this statistics page: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/
According to it we have around 33% chance of finishing top 4. I think one of the key matches is tomorrow, we have 49% chance of winning, 26% of drawing and 25% of losing.
I think Spurs has the easiest schedule of the 4th, followed by Arsenal and then us and Chelsea tied.
ManUtd: We have 2 medium games against Wolves and Everton and two hard games in City and Chelsea.
Chelsea: Chelsea haves 2 medium games against Watford and Leicester and 2 hard games against Liverpool and us.
Arsenal: 4 medium games against Everton, Watford, Wolves, Leicester.
Spurs: only 1 hard game against City and 1 medium against Everton.
I think Spurs will ultimately nail the 4th place, so we must win all the medium games and get the 3 points against Chelsea and hope for Arsenal to have a drop in some of the games left.
According to it we have around 33% chance of finishing top 4. I think one of the key matches is tomorrow, we have 49% chance of winning, 26% of drawing and 25% of losing.
I think Spurs has the easiest schedule of the 4th, followed by Arsenal and then us and Chelsea tied.
ManUtd: We have 2 medium games against Wolves and Everton and two hard games in City and Chelsea.
Chelsea: Chelsea haves 2 medium games against Watford and Leicester and 2 hard games against Liverpool and us.
Arsenal: 4 medium games against Everton, Watford, Wolves, Leicester.
Spurs: only 1 hard game against City and 1 medium against Everton.
I think Spurs will ultimately nail the 4th place, so we must win all the medium games and get the 3 points against Chelsea and hope for Arsenal to have a drop in some of the games left.
We’re getting it done, amigos.
Really wish cardiff could have done the Job yesterday just to ease up my nerves. Its really sickening how tight it is right now for top 4. Its really up to us to win every game bar city till the end of the season. that game against chelsea has to be in our favor.
Fair point, but as Watford showed against us a few games ago, they're not taking the foot off the pedal yet. They weren't playing like a team in holiday mode.
Lukaku back will help. He ain't perfect but he scores.
As if Arsenal will win away games against the teams who are chasing top 7, that also includes Arsenal's awful away from home, I think they'll win one in 5 away games and expected to lose/draw other 4 away games.
For us to get to the top 4, most important is beating Chelsea first, then we will finish in the top 4 as long as we have a 70% win over the season.
I think Chelsea will focus on the Europa League while Arsenal may very well get eliminated by Napoli so they will focus entirely on the EPL. Our best case scenario is Arsenal to beat Napoli and continue in the EL so they have to rotate players.
Too much being made of our poor away form. We played a significant part of the mid season with Xhaka at cb and Lichesteiner at rb, we were bound to be poor. Also Ramsey was benched and ozil out injured. We aren't city, we're going to have injury based dips in form. The team playing now is at least two levels above the team that drew away to crystal palace so to speak.
Looking at the schedule I think Spurs will definitely make the top 4. They have 5 home and 2 away games remaining. City is their toughest fixture. Rest are all winnable for them. Palace, Huddersfield, Brighton, West Ham, Bournemouth (a), Everton - can't see them lose any, at most a draw somewhere.
Arsenal don't have the 'Big six' to deal with but Everton (a), Napoli, Watford (a), Napoli (a), Palace, Wolves (a), Leicester (a), Brighton & Burnley (a) is not an easy fixture list. Their away record is atrocious. They are gonna drop a few points.
Chelsea have Liverpool and us away as their toughest fixtures. The rest - Brighton, West Ham, Burnley, Watford, Leicester (a) - are all winnable on paper. Though they are weird team under Saari. Made a hard work of Cardiff. It's not easy for them against any team that parks the bus.
Our fixture list is a tough one. Wolves (a), West Ham, Everton (a), City, Chelsea, Huddrsfield (a) & Cardiff - is the toughest of any team. The performances have tapered off and need to pick up fast for us to have a chance. However, our league record since Ole's arrival is 12-2-1. I think we'll need 5 wins and a draw out of the 7 remaining to make the top 4. Tough ask.
My prediction:
Spurs - 3rd
United - 4th/5th
Arsenal -4th/5th
Chelsea - 6th
Arsenal don't have the 'Big six' to deal with but Everton (a), Napoli, Watford (a), Napoli (a), Palace, Wolves (a), Leicester (a), Brighton & Burnley (a) is not an easy fixture list. Their away record is atrocious. They are gonna drop a few points.
Chelsea have Liverpool and us away as their toughest fixtures. The rest - Brighton, West Ham, Burnley, Watford, Leicester (a) - are all winnable on paper. Though they are weird team under Saari. Made a hard work of Cardiff. It's not easy for them against any team that parks the bus.
Our fixture list is a tough one. Wolves (a), West Ham, Everton (a), City, Chelsea, Huddrsfield (a) & Cardiff - is the toughest of any team. The performances have tapered off and need to pick up fast for us to have a chance. However, our league record since Ole's arrival is 12-2-1. I think we'll need 5 wins and a draw out of the 7 remaining to make the top 4. Tough ask.
My prediction:
Spurs - 3rd
United - 4th/5th
Arsenal -4th/5th
Chelsea - 6th