Top Four Race 2018/19

[ErranMorad]

Too much being made of our poor away form. We played a significant part of the mid season with Xhaka at cb and Lichesteiner at rb, we were bound to be poor. Also Ramsey was benched and ozil out injured. We aren't city, we're going to have injury based dips in form. The team playing now is at least two levels above the team that drew away to crystal palace so to speak.

You have win % of 82.35% at home while away it's 35.7%. Whatever is made of your away record is true.

 

[Frank Grimes]

Anyone else find it strange that Solskjaer is claiming 15 points will do us for top 4. I wouldn't be so confident of that and think it sends out a bad signal to the players.

 

[roonster09]

We are 5-2-2 in away matches outside the top six, which is the appropriate comparison set given that all the matches remaining are outside the top six. I'm sure we'll drop points in a couple of those away matches but if we win three of them - which we might not, but its not the toughest task either - and win our home games as well then it would be shocking if we didn't finish in the top four.

It's your record outside of top 10. You haven't played 7-10th teams away from Home. That's the remaining games for Arsenal, away to 7,8,9,10th teams and Burnley.

 

[Kapardin]

Anyone else find it strange that Solskjaer is claiming 15 points will do us for top 4. I wouldn't be so confident of that and think it sends out a bad signal to the players.

Well, it implies winning a minimum of 5/7 games, which would be a good record, so I think he is telling the players to win as many games as possible. Don't read too much into it, what he says to the players in the dressing room will be a lot more specific. I assume they have had many brainstorming sessions on how to approach the run-in.

 

[Frank Grimes]

Well, it implies winning a minimum of 5/7 games, which would be a good record, so I think he is telling the players to win as many games as possible. Don't read too much into it, what he says to the players in the dressing room will be a lot more specific. I assume they have had many brainstorming sessions on how to approach the run-in.

Just seems odd even from a media perspective, we could get 15 points and still miss out. Should not be so open with them, feed them some generic bullshit like "every game is a final now". I genuinely thinks he believes 15 points will be enough too, he might be right but I doubt it.

 

[Adisa]

Arsenal better hope Burnley aren't still fighting relegation in that last game.

 

[ThatsGreat]

You have win % of 82.35% at home while away it's 35.7%. Whatever is made of your away record is true.

My point is that we were in poor form for most of midseason. The team is playing much better right now. Whether that'll translate into improved away performances, we'll have to wait and watch. For what its worth I see both Arsenal and Utd in the top four, spurs and chelsea to miss out.

 

[sugar_kane]

Anyone else find it strange that Solskjaer is claiming 15 points will do us for top 4. I wouldn't be so confident of that and think it sends out a bad signal to the players.

I don’t like that he said it (for the reason you mentioned) but he’s probably right, 76 points has delivered top 4 almost every season.

 

[Wednesday at Stoke]

I'm not sure how motivated the Wolves are in a midweek game when they have a cup semi final over the weekend. If it turns out to be a comfortable outing, the tough fixtures we have left would be City which is going to be hard and Chelsea at home which we should comfortably win. West Ham have already checked out and gone on vacation, Everton away is tricky but same situation as West Ham, Huddersfield already relegated and Cardiff probably will be done by then too.

 

[Paul_Scholes18]

Just seems odd even from a media perspective, we could get 15 points and still miss out. Should not be so open with them, feed them some generic bullshit like "every game is a final now". I genuinely thinks he believes 15 points will be enough too, he might be right but I doubt it.

Yeah I am not sure it will be enough. Think Arsenal will maybe drop 6-7 points, but they are already ahead of us. Spurs might win the rest apart from the game against City with the easy games they have.

 

[amolbhatia50k]

Absolutely huge game for us against Wolves. I don't see us beating City and Chelsea will be a challenge as well, so this is a must win. And Wolves outplayed us recently.

 

[Havak]

Absolutely huge game for us against Wolves. I don't see us beating City and Chelsea will be a challenge as well, so this is a must win. And Wolves outplayed us recently.

I didn't think I'd be saying this earlier in the season, but it probably depends how seriously Wolves take this game. Watford play Fulham tonight, which you'd expect them to be able to win whilst playing a weakened side. Wolves should probably rest most of their best players to match Watford for the FA Cup Semi Final at the weekend. Hopefully this is the case, but there is also the idea of confidence being needed as going into a Semi Final on the back of two losses wouldn't be ideal either, although I think that won't effect Wolves.

If finishing 7th is actually a big deal to Wolves, losing to us isn't going to be a big factor in costing them that goal. It's really tight between them, Watford, Leicester, and Everton, but I think the latter two have the more difficult fixtures so Wolves should still fancy it for sure.

 

[Kapardin]

I didn't think I'd be saying this earlier in the season, but it probably depends how seriously Wolves take this game. Watford play Fulham tonight, which you'd expect them to be able to win whilst playing a weakened side. Wolves should probably rest most of their best players to match Watford for the FA Cup Semi Final at the weekend. Hopefully this is the case, but there is also the idea of confidence being needed as going into a Semi Final on the back of two losses wouldn't be ideal either, although I think that won't effect Wolves.

If finishing 7th is actually a big deal to Wolves, losing to us isn't going to be a big factor in costing them that goal. It's really tight between them, Watford, Leicester, and Everton, but I think the latter two have the more difficult fixtures so Wolves should still fancy it for sure.

Wolves effectively have two routes to the Europa, either win the FA Cup or finish 7th, as do Watford. Since City are still in the FA Cup, they would probably think they have a higher chance of qualification via the league, and I doubt they will rest players for it.

 

[Kentonio]

and Chelsea at home which we should comfortably win.

Comfortably? Why would you think that? We're one of the most unpredictable teams in the PL in terms of performance level.

 

[Cassidy]

Still think Spurs will drop points no one is expecting them to. We win today and I think we'll do it

 

[Djemba-Djemba]

Comfortably? Why would you think that? We're one of the most unpredictable teams in the PL in terms of performance level.

You've been pretty dreadful consistently since Xmas though no?

 

[Cal?]

Still think Spurs will drop points no one is expecting them to. We win today and I think we'll do it

How can anyone not expect them to drop points after the 1/15 run they’ve had?

 

[Trizy]

We could be very lucky in tonight's game, if Wolves had any sense they'd rest their players for a potential cup final. Otherwise I struggle to see us getting all 3 points of them. They're a very good side and we're just not that good of late.

If we beat Wolves then Chelsea is the next must win game. I'm gonna be very optimistic and give the follow predictions:

Wolves (A) - 3
West Ham (H) - 3
Everton (A) - 3
City (H) - 0
Chelsea (H) - 1
Huddersfield (A) - 3
Cardiff (H) - 3

16 points total given us 77 points. We might beat Chelsea but we will draw unexpectedly elsewhere.

Spurs should win all games except the City one given them 15 points (76total). They have all winnable games but then you look at their current 1 point from previous 15 form. You just can't see them winning all of them.

Arsenal. They have tricky fixtures in Everton, Wolves, Watford, Burnley and Leicester which are ALL away. Their away form is horrible. 2 losses 2 draw. Total 11 Points. (74).

Chelsea. 2 losses (United & City, and 1 draw) 13 points (73 points).

Like I said I'm very optimistic with our results. But 75 points should see top 4 secured. It will come down to 3 teams all playing their last game I think.

 

[iKnowNothing]

There should be a March Madness style bracket or wheel or whatever else with all the possible permutations and combinations for the top 4 this season. Keeping track of the games of the top 4 opponents is a crazy exercise.

 

[Cassidy]

How can anyone not expect them to drop points after the 1/15 run they’ve had?

Just referring to those who predict they will come 3rd

 

[charlenefan]

I wouldn't bet on us being in the CL next season.
Thanks,Jose.

If we dont make top 4 that's on Ole just as much as it is on Mourinho. Ole got us into a position whereby we were ahead of the likes of Arsenal so harsh as it may be it's largely irrelevant what happened before him

 

[Kentonio]

You've been pretty dreadful consistently since Xmas though no?

We haven't been consistent at all. We lost 4-0 to Bournemouth and and hammered Huddersfield 5-0 just 3 days later. Straight after that we got fecked by City 6-0 and then not long after ran them to the final moments in the Cup Final.

I honestly have absolutely zero idea what our games against you and Liverpool will be like. You could beat us 4-0 or we could do the same to you. We could smash Liverpool away and then get leathered by Burnley or Watford at home. I have no idea how anyone feels they can bet money on Chelsea games this year, it seems like you may as well just flip a coin. One of the weirdest seasons for us that I've seen in years.

 

[Wednesday at Stoke]

We haven't been consistent at all. We lost 4-0 to Bournemouth and and hammered Huddersfield 5-0 just 3 days later. Straight after that we got fecked by City 6-0 and then not long after ran them to the final moments in the Cup Final.

I honestly have absolutely zero idea what our games against you and Liverpool will be like. You could beat us 4-0 or we could do the same to you. We could smash Liverpool away and then get leathered by Burnley or Watford at home. I have no idea how anyone feels they can bet money on Chelsea games this year, it seems like you may as well just flip a coin. One of the weirdest seasons for us that I've seen in years.

As unpredictable as your team is, you are not going to be beating Liverpool or United away and Sarri ball is perfectly setup for counter attacking teams like Liverpool and United to run a train.

 

[espnluk]

Fair point, but as Watford showed against us a few games ago, they're not taking the foot off the pedal yet. They weren't playing like a team in holiday mode.

They really aren't.

Wolves 44
Leicester 44
Everton 43
Watford 43
West Ham 42

Only one of these teams get 7th, which means the Europa League qualifiers. Their season is hardly over.

 

[Kentonio]

As unpredictable as your team is, you are not going to be beating Liverpool or United away and Sarri ball is perfectly setup for counter attacking teams like Liverpool and United to run a train.

We've played Liverpool twice this year. We beat them away once (LC 3rd round, so not full teams) and drew at the bridge with them having to grab a last second worldie to prevent defeat. They may well hammer us at Anfield, but its not nearly the foregone conclusion you seem to be suggesting, and I'm damned sure Liverpool fans won't be assuming its an easy game considering the history.

As for United, we'll see. First game was 2-2, and you guys have improved, but if we have an on-day and Hazard is on form, who knows.

 

[Mb194dc]

they have 5 away games from 7, how is their fixture easy?
In their last 8 away games they won only 1 game.

Their general form is very good, 4 wins in 5. They seem to have played City and Spurs in they're last league away games.

I expect Emery to get results against the teams lower in the table. None of them have anything much to play for either now, and they shouldn't put up much of a fight.

I expect Utd and Arsenal to finish 3rd and 4th. We have a chance but don't see it without Sarri changing things up. Europa and holding Liverpool to at least a draw at Anfield very possible though, especially if we play like we did against City in the league cup final.

 

[prateik]

Not too confident. The Arsenal result really hurt us and gave Arsenal a huge boost.

We'll cant afford 2 losses and need to rely on the others to drop at least 6 points with an easier fixture list .

Ole has still done a pretty decent job.. and now that he has the job, I am less worried about him suffering for the massive feck up under Jose.

 

[Djemba-Djemba]

We've played Liverpool twice this year. We beat them away once (LC 3rd round, so not full teams) and drew at the bridge with them having to grab a last second worldie to prevent defeat. They may well hammer us at Anfield, but its not nearly the foregone conclusion you seem to be suggesting, and I'm damned sure Liverpool fans won't be assuming its an easy game considering the history.

As for United, we'll see. First game was 2-2, and you guys have improved, but if we have an on-day and Hazard is on form, who knows.

Both those Liverpool games were pre Xmas when things were still going well with Sarri. And the 2-2 we should have won we were the better side on the day and that was us during the final dark days of Mourinho too. Under Ole we've beaten you in the cup.

I'm not saying theres no chance Chelsea will make top 4, it's going to be very tight and who knows what could happen. I think of the 4 teams though I'd say Chelsea are the least likely to make it.

 

[FootballHQ]

Still think Spurs will drop points no one is expecting them to. We win today and I think we'll do it

Yes in all the run ins Spurs blow up in an easy home game usually. It wouldn't shock me if they draw v Palace or West Ham in the run in. Add in a defeat at Man. City and that would mean they finish on 77 points so I'd say they'd be under serious threat from Arsenal and Man. United if that is their final tally.

 

[FootballHQ]

Comfortably? Why would you think that? We're one of the most unpredictable teams in the PL in terms of performance level.

I know the narrative on here is Arsenal are useless away so will barely win an away game in run in (I reckon they'll win at least two) Chelsea have been even worse away since xmas.

Can you really be confident of getting 5-6 points from Anfield, Old Trafford and even Leicester away on final day who might want to finish 7th to get europa? You'll need that tally to stay in hunt for top 4.

Edit: If Chelsea make europa league final Leicester away is just three days before that.

 

[roonster09]

Comfortably? Why would you think that? We're one of the most unpredictable teams in the PL in terms of performance level.

I think he is going by Chelsea's away form vs big teams. It's just awful

 

[shaky]

If we dont make top 4 that's on Ole just as much as it is on Mourinho. Ole got us into a position whereby we were ahead of the likes of Arsenal so harsh as it may be it's largely irrelevant what happened before him

That's absolute nonsense. Ole has averaged over 0.9 points per game more than Mourinho did this season. Because of Ole, we've managed to get ourselves in a position where we can get top 4, but still with very little room for error. We could literally lose every single match from now until the end of the season and Ole would still have a better points per game return than Jose.
The only reason there is little room for error is because of Mourinho's dreadful point return in the first half of the season. It should never have got to the stage where we are reliant on one or two crucial results at the end of the season to decide our top 4 status, and that's all on Mourinho.

 

[Kentonio]

I know the narrative on here is Arsenal are useless away so will barely win an away game in run in (I reckon they'll win at least two) Chelsea have been even worse away since xmas.

Can you really be confident of getting 5-6 points from Anfield, Old Trafford and even Leicester away on final day who might want to finish 7th to get europa? You'll need that tally to stay in hunt for top 4.

Confident? God no, I'm not confident about any of it. Like I said both you and Liverpool could absolutely hammer us, but I just wouldn't be banking those points just yet if I were you guys, because we keep pulling out random brilliant performances now and again with no apparently rhythm or reason to how and why. I'd be very surprised if we made top 4 now, but crossing my fingers for the Europa.

 

[adexkola]

If we dont make top 4 that's on Ole just as much as it is on Mourinho. Ole got us into a position whereby we were ahead of the likes of Arsenal so harsh as it may be it's largely irrelevant what happened before him

Absolute nonsense.

 

[Minimalist]

Think people are doing that thing of assuming the best for our rivals and thinking the worst for ourselves. The run-in factor is a tad overrated - football is funny as we all know. Teams get turned over when they don’t expect it all the time.

Wouldn’t bank on Spurs, Chelsea or Arsenal being anymore consistent than ourselves. It’ll go down to the wire I expect and we’ve got every chance.

People just need to remember the results we had prior to Ole coming in had most of us believing it was impossible. This is all a bonus to me.

 

[charlenefan]

That's absolute nonsense. Ole has averaged over 0.9 points per game more than Mourinho did this season. Because of Ole, we've managed to get ourselves in a position where we can get top 4, but still with very little room for error. We could literally lose every single match from now until the end of the season and Ole would still have a better points per game return than Jose.
The only reason there is little room for error is because of Mourinho's dreadful point return in the first half of the season. It should never have got to the stage where we are reliant on one or two crucial results at the end of the season to decide our top 4 status, and that's all on Mourinho.

So it's ok for Ole to hypothetically loose against the likes of Wolves tonight and Everton but not ok for Mourinho to guide us to defeats against the likes of West Ham and Brighton?

Again we've undone the damage Mourinho did by getting ourselves to where we are now, if we let it go from here it's got nothing to do with Mourinho

 

[Djemba-Djemba]

So it's ok for Ole to hypothetically loose against the likes of Wolves tonight and Everton but not ok for Mourinho to guide us to defeats against the likes of West Ham and Brighton?

Again we've undone the damage Mourinho did by getting ourselves to where we are now, if we let it go from here it's got nothing to do with Mourinho

If we don't make top 4 it will have a huge amount to do with Mourinho.

Under Ole it's Played 14 Won 11 Drew 2 Lost 1. That's genuine title winning form.

Mourinho Played 17 Won 7 Drew 5 Lost 5. Mid table shite form, we'd won 1 of his last 6 so feck knows where we'd be now if he stayed on until the new year.

The only reason we're back in the race is because of Ole. If we don't make top 4 from here of course it'll be gutting and Ole will have to take the responsibility because he's our manager now but no chance would it be "nothing to do with Mourinho".

 

[Paul_Scholes18]

Think people are doing that thing of assuming the best for our rivals and thinking the worst for ourselves. The run-in factor is a tad overrated - football is funny as we all know. Teams get turned over when they don’t expect it all the time.

Wouldn’t bank on Spurs, Chelsea or Arsenal being anymore consistent than ourselves. It’ll go down to the wire I expect and we’ve got every chance.

People just need to remember the results we had prior to Ole coming in had most of us believing it was impossible. This is all a bonus to me.

We got the worst fixtures and the least amount of points though. Also our form has gone down so people are less positive about us beating Chelsea and City.

Spurs are in terrible form though in terms of results so they might keep on struggling.

 

[shaky]

So it's ok for Ole to hypothetically loose against the likes of Wolves tonight and Everton but not ok for Mourinho to guide us to defeats against the likes of West Ham and Brighton?

Again we've undone the damage Mourinho did by getting ourselves to where we are now, if we let it go from here it's got nothing to do with Mourinho

Explain to me how the damage has been undone?
The damage was so severe that, despite Ole taking 35 out of 42 points since he started, which is pretty much title winning form, we are still only in 5th place. It's taken a miraculous run over the past few months to even be in touching distance of top 4.

 

[RobinLFC]

Tonight is a very important game for you guys, obviously.

Wolves (A) - 1
West Ham (H) - 3
Everton (A) - 3
City (H) - 0
Chelsea (H) - ?
Huddersfield (A) - 3
Cardiff (H) - 3

Seems realistic, maybe swapping the Everton and Wolves results or something like that. Would put you on 13/18 without the Chelsea game, so 74 points. Chelsea at home could well be the defining game in ending in front or after them.

Arsenal's away game was shite when they were underperforming, recently they've picked up their level so it remains to be seen how they handle their next away games. Spurs results wise are on a terrible run but the quality is still there imo. Chelsea are just so unpredictable...

With four teams involved, hard to not see this go down the wire.