SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Wibble]

Thoughts ?

I think he has a point and in a way it might make this far more manageable in that fewer people will need full ventilator support. And of course it might help other doctors get better outcomes for their patients if they are slower to put them on ventilators especially when they don't have pneumonia. That said I think many doctors will already be doing what he suggests.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200407/doctors-puzzle-over-covid19-lung-problems

 

[sglowrider]

Good description of the situation in India and will be in most 2nd and 3rd world countries and probably some first world ones as well...

Spoiler

India will quietly be the next Italy.

 

[Denis79]

So you think pubs, night clubs, restaurants, cinemas, theatres, shopping malls should have all been allowed stay open, in every city all over the world. Presumably with metros, tubes, buses, taxis all crammed full of people as usual. To ensure these businesses continue to make a profit. Because no government should be allowed interfere with their right to make money. Under any circumstances.

That’s. Incredible. Quite remarkable. I always took you for a bright bloke too.

Sounds like Sweden. Exactly what they are doing. Going to ugly and fast.

 

[sglowrider]

It reads a lot like blame China for this and ignores the convention that it is a country's job to protect its own citizens and no one else's.

No country placed any significant travel restrictions on Chinese nationals until March.

No country implemented screening measures for travellers until March.

No country suggested their citizens had anything to worry about until March.

By then it was too late and here we are. People feel more comfortable blaming outsiders because it avoids criticism of their own.

It's easy to cry root cause and blame wet markets for this but that perspective ignores all of the subsequent failures of governments that should have been better prepared to deal with a potential pandemic orginating from that part of the world. Every single one of them failed.

Tbf on Buster and the like, when humans feel helpless, they will always seek to blame someone for their station rather than looking inwards/domestic govt in this case. It's a natural human condition for some -- externalise their plight.

How else do wars get started -- but by the sub-humanising of others/groups as a convenient excuse?

 

[Lj82]

Do you have any idea why Sars covid1 didn't spread more? Wikipedia shows that it has a basic reproduction number of 2 to 4, similar to Covid-19, but it only seems to have affected about 10k people. Though the death rate was higher at 10%.

SARs has a limited transmission period. I recall that a carrier is contagious during the period where symptoms appeared. This makes it easier to trace and isolate carriers. Problem with Covid-19 is thati it has a longer contagious period, and carriers can be asymptomatic

 

[Bebestation]

If this virus started off within some random small country that had a small economic personality in comparison to the majority of the world & made mistakes that causes 10 to 100 of thousands of deaths per day then I'm sure the world would have the balls to question the country afterwards and make an agreement with that country to sort something out that needs to be checked by multiple countries.

The fact is - china already have the balls to say it's not their fault, and they dont have to say sorry - continuously through multiple outlets. They expect this all to end and everything to go back to normal with all countries looking after their own soil.

We can talk about how countries are shite at looking after a pandemic but literally what about the country that creates pandemics for the world more often than not?

Eff that, they do have to say sorry and things do have to change in that country by the force of other countries for the greater good of both humanity and animals.

 

[The Boy]

Correct me if i'm wrong, but that's only the case if you get one of the other strains of it? Dengue fever is a real evolutionary motherfecker though, and we'd have to have a few generations of bad luck packed into 2020 for this to mutate into something nasty like that.

I have had Dengue twice in the last 24 months. It is a horrible disease, but it is nothing to do with a different strain. It's because your body produces anti bodies the first time around, once you are better the amount in you drops. If it drops below a certain point and you catch it again what happens is your body doesn't produce new antibodies immediately and the ones you have attach themselves to the virus, but there are not enough of them to stop it, instead they actually help disguise it so it can enter healthy cells. It is a bitch of a disease, I have never been so ill in my life!

 

[The Boy]

If this virus started off within some random small country that had a small economic personality in comparison to the majority of the world & made mistakes that causes 10 to 100 of thousands of deaths per day then I'm sure the world would have the balls to question the country afterwards and make an agreement with that country to sort something out that needs to be checked by multiple countries.

The fact is - china already have the balls to say it's not their fault, and they dont have to say sorry - continuously through multiple outlets. They expect this all to end and everything to go back to normal with all countries looking after their own soil.

We can talk about how countries are shite at looking after a pandemic but literally what about the country that creates pandemics for the world more often than not?

Eff that, they do have to say sorry and things do have to change in that country by the force of other countries for the greater good of both humanity and animals.

I agree with all of this, but what must happen for one country should happen for all, The US gave us the 2009 outbreak of swine flu, a nasty mix of pig, bird and human virus. West Africa probably gave us HIV as well as Ebola. The Arabian peninsula was the original source of MERS. This needs a global answer, not just a shut down wet markets in China response. Novel viruses can originate anywhere in the world, especially now climate change in many places is pushing animals, humans, crops and livestock all closer and closer together.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Sounds like Sweden. Exactly what they are doing. Going to ugly and fast.

Sweden is still very much under control despite this pal.

What is ”going ugly” @Denis79? We’ve seen a decrease in cases for quite a few days (5 days if yesterday continued the trend, we'll see at 14:00 so fingers crossed) and the death toll, which is a picture of the pandemic from 2-3 weeks ago has been a steady 40 ish per day since last week. Hopefully the highest total so far (55) on the 2nd April was some kind of peak.
ICU entries per day since 23rd March have been: 38, 34, 31,40, 27, 28, 40, 31, 32, 42, 43, 43, 27, 40, 33, yesterday unknown till 14:00.

Add to that it’s only Stockholm that is being hit with any real degree of it and you’ll see that what we are doing is working over the country so far. As the Goteborg Health Minister said yesterday, they are so fortunate that their half term was in week 7, whereas Stockholm was week 9, the Italy horror week. Gothenburg, our second biggest city has seen just 26 deaths, and just 66 people into ICU since all this began.

Sweden registered their first 2 deaths on 14th March, Portugal 18th March so there's a 4 day difference there. Portugal was already in some kind of voluntary lockdown then. 4 days ago our total deaths was almost identical to Portugal now.
What I think will change now is that Portugal will drop right off due to their lockdown, whereas Sweden will likely continue at a stable level so the deaths will really start to pull away from Portugal, maybe for months, which is the plan, putting in measures that the population of Sweden can maintain for month after month after month.
The key for Portugal after the big drop off they will likely see is what they do after lockdown.

You'd imagine the vast majority of school kids and parents in the Stockholm area have likely had a dose of Covid-19 already.

The next week and Easter is crucial though, you can really sense that the Swedish authorities are shitting it about us fecking up this good trend at Easter.

Where we have "fecked up" is that we have it in 121 nursing homes in the Stockholm area.

Worldometres don't edit the records to show updated figures in the correct days, which could give you an incorrect picture. Here is the Swedish health ministry stats: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

 

[RoadTrip]

Yes exactly. The lockdown gives us a chance to go back to square 1 and any competent govt now will be working on increasing their testing capacity & planning for life after lock down. Life isn't going back to normal anytime soon, but its obvious having people locked in for months on end will cause society to collapse anyway. So we need a compromise & the SK model is the best one on the table.

What’s the SK model?

 

[Sweet Square]

Eff that, they do have to say sorry and things do have to change in that country by the force of other countries for the greater good of both humanity and animals.

This lockdown has already made people go insane. You sound like a child having a tantrum.

 

[Di Maria's angel]

Coronavirus: Paris bans daytime outdoor exercise

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It was quite funny whilst driving through part of London/Surrey. I never realised so many cycled.

On another note, I argued this the other day with a friend. The small freedom we get will also get taken away due to the idiots.

 

[Bebestation]

This lockdown has already made people go insane. You sound like a child having a tantrum.

Okay mama, it's not easy times to be fair.

This started off with caged animals and now we feel like caged humans.

Pure karmic consequence.

 

[Revan]

What’s the SK model?

South Korea model.

Essentially, no lockdown but a lot of testing followed by contact tracing and quarantine. And of course monitoring the entire society .

Best case scenario IMO. People do not lose their jobs, economy continues while the number of victims is small.

 

[JPRouve]

It is around Strasbourg, right? Our branch in France is located in Strasbourg and my colleague from over there was saying the other day that most people she knows have either been infected or had someone from their close relatives infected. She was infected herself but fortunately it wasn’t that bad, her husband was in a pretty dire state for a while but he pulled through this.

Yes basically the north east, Paris, Strasbourg, Mulhouse and Lille.

 

[Coxy]

One of my Facebook friends has posted about how she had her parents round yesterday for her birthday but practiced ‘social distancing’ by not sitting close etc.
There’s pictures of them sat at a table eating together.

why are some people so ignorant?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

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Superb piece of journalism.

@TMDaines

 

[Pexbo]

Just on BBC news that the government expected around 3m people to be furloughed and it’s actually closer to 9m costing £40bn over 12 weeks.

The next decade of austerity is going to be even more crippling than the last decade.

 

[FireballXL5]

Just on BBC news that the government expected around 3m people to be furloughed and it’s actually closer to 9m costing £40bn over 12 weeks.

The next decade of austerity is going to be even more crippling than the last decade.

Nah, it'll be offset by the Brexit dividend. Things'll be golden.

 

[Penna]

One of my Facebook friends has posted about how she had her parents round yesterday for her birthday but practiced ‘social distancing’ by not sitting close etc.
There’s pictures of them sat at a table eating together.

why are some people so ignorant?

I don't know, they seem to be able to convince themselves that they're doing what they've been asked to do. It suggests that the way the original message was conveyed wasn't clear enough and allows too much wriggle-room.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Just on BBC news that the government expected around 3m people to be furloughed and it’s actually closer to 9m costing £40bn over 12 weeks.

The next decade of austerity is going to be even more crippling than the last decade.

This doesn’t need to be paid for by austerity. I’ve heard a few economists saying this can’t be treated like any other kind of normal economic crisis. The hole in the bank balance can be filled by other means. 100 year bonds and the like. One of them (Mark Blyth, who is always worth a listen) said lessons have been learned from 2008 and most governments realise that the best way to get the economy going again isn’t by QE or pouring money into institutions but by putting money in people’s pockets.

I’m reasonably optimistic that austerity won’t be a tactic used in the aftermath of all this.

 

[arnie_ni]

Those charts look good, yeah? Lines are levelling or going down. Worst parts over for a lot of countries, yes or no?

If its over, Its over due to the social distancing.

How to keep them going down while re introducing everyone back to a normal society is the question?

It cant spread if people arent in contact.

 

[RoadTrip]

South Korea model.

Essentially, no lockdown but a lot of testing followed by contact tracing and quarantine. And of course monitoring the entire society .

Best case scenario IMO. People do not lose their jobs, economy continues while the number of victims is small.

Thanks.

I get the whole testing and tracing aspect.

But I meant more, what limitations are they putting on society to achieve relatively low new case rates. Presumably there must be some? I can’t believe testing, tracing, and quarantining alone would result in their level of new cases simply due to the nature of how the virus spreads.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Thanks.

I get the whole testing and tracing aspect.

But I meant more, what limitations are they putting on society to achieve relatively low new case rates. Presumably there must be some? I can’t believe testing, tracing, and quarantining alone would result in their level of new cases simply due to the nature of how the virus spreads.

The hope is that hand washing and social distancing becomes habitual. Which I can understand. Will you be shaking hands with anyone soon? Think about how different we all feel about being near other people to how we felt in January. It’s like a completely different era.

 

[kouroux]

One of my Facebook friends has posted about how she had her parents round yesterday for her birthday but practiced ‘social distancing’ by not sitting close etc.
There’s pictures of them sat at a table eating together.

why are some people so ignorant?

It really depends if they applied those measures fully or not. Were they close to each other at the table ? Those distanciation measures are a luxury in all honesty in the sense that not everyone can distance themselves from others in the same house/apartment

 

[arnie_ni]

Just on BBC news that the government expected around 3m people to be furloughed and it’s actually closer to 9m costing £40bn over 12 weeks.

The next decade of austerity is going to be even more crippling than the last decade.

Not sure how it all works, but wont the fact those 9mil people will have 80 percent of their usual salary not help?

As in when this is all over they will still have money to spend which will flood back into the economy whereas before, people were actually broke and there was no money to spend?

 

[Penna]

It really depends if they applied those measures fully or not. Were they close to each other at the table ? Those distanciation measures are a luxury in all honesty in the sense that not everyone can distance themselves from others in the same house/apartment

They don't live with her, so they shouldn't have gone to her house at all.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

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Superb piece of journalism.

@TMDaines

Cheers for that, brilliant timeline on the UK response.

 

[Smores]

Thanks.

I get the whole testing and tracing aspect.

But I meant more, what limitations are they putting on society to achieve relatively low new case rates. Presumably there must be some? I can’t believe testing, tracing, and quarantining alone would result in their level of new cases simply due to the nature of how the virus spreads.

They still closed schools, large gatherings and parks etc, you'd think life was carrying on as normal the way some discuss South Korea.

They also have a very intrusive system where citizens records are inspected to track where they've been and this is alerted to other locals through an appbso they can see cases. Personally it's not something I'd mind but there's no way that will fly here.

 

[TMDaines]

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Superb piece of journalism.

@TMDaines

Not sure why you have CC’d me in particularly, but it is a great read. Thanks.

 

[Pexbo]

This doesn’t need to be paid for by austerity. I’ve heard a few economists saying this can’t be treated like any other kind of normal economic crisis. The hole in the bank balance can be filled by other means. 100 year bonds and the like. One of them (Mark Blyth, who is always worth a listen) said lessons have been learned from 2008 and most governments realise that the best way to get the economy going again isn’t by QE or pouring money into institutions but by putting money in people’s pockets.

I’m reasonably optimistic that austerity won’t be a tactic used in the aftermath of all this.

I completely agree with you but what you are essentially arguing is that socialism is more beneficial to capitalism than conservatism which is fairly difficult to imagine the Conservative party agreeing with. It's basically been Corbyn's argument for the last 5 years. Invest an absolute tonne of money in the country's infrastructure and education and the economy will boom with trickle up economics.

It will 100% be austerity under this government. Major cuts to public spending "because there is no money" while simultaneously cutting taxes "to tell corporations we are open for business".

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Not sure why you have CC’d me in particularly, but it is a great read.

I remembered us both speculating wildly about what was going on behind the scenes in the UK govt last month. Figured you’d be interested in some proper insight.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

They still closed schools, large gatherings and parks etc, you'd think life was carrying on as normal the way some discuss South Korea.

They also have a very intrusive system where citizens records are inspected to track where they've been and this is alerted to other locals through an appbso they can see cases. Personally it's not something I'd mind but there's no way that will fly here.

They’re already working on a similar app to be rolled out across the EU. GDPR will be a pain in the arse to get round but exceptional times call for exceptional measures.

 

[Enigma_87]

If its over, Its over due to the social distancing.

How to keep them going down while re introducing everyone back to a normal society is the question?

It cant spread if people arent in contact.

Not really. If it is over it is because most of the population have already caught the virus.

To me in Italy especially at least 1/3 of the population is/was infected but they didn't test them all.

I don't believe for a minute that China had only 80k that got infected. The numbers are way up.

We really don't know how much of the entire population is infected and for countries like UK and USA the peak isn't reached yet, IMO.

 

[TMDaines]

I remembered us both speculating wildly about what was going on behind the scenes in the UK govt last month. Figured you’d be interested in some proper insight.

Yeah, I appreciate it. Thanks. I’ll read the latter half of the article after breakfast.

Not been posting as much here in the last week or so, as there seems little to debate. Shit got much worse as expected and we’re bracing ourselves for most of this year being written off as I strongly felt a month ago.

 

[11101]

Just on BBC news that the government expected around 3m people to be furloughed and it’s actually closer to 9m costing £40bn over 12 weeks.

The next decade of austerity is going to be even more crippling than the last decade.

I don't know if it's too late now but something needs to change with the furlough scheme. It's well intentioned but i don't think they accounted for the sheer number of businesses that would take the piss and put people on it whether they needed to or not - Liverpool being the perfect example. There needs to be some sort of test, any business that posts a profit in 2020 can't claim back from it or something like that.

On the other hand the reason they are being so generous is because they can't have a country full of people worrying about their finances for the next year. As soon as restrictions are lifted they need people back in the shops with pockets full of money getting the economy going again. A nation sitting on it's arses counting pennies for the rest of 2020 will be far more costly than the furlough scheme.

 

[Smores]

They’re already working on a similar app to be rolled out across the EU. GDPR will be a pain in the arse to get round but exceptional times call for exceptional measures.

Ah thanks, will have a look. I can't imagine it'll be as detailed because in SK it's led to some ending up on the news saying they aren't having affairs etc. They mark age and where abouts so people were figuring it out.

As far as i recall there's a lot of public health exclusions to GDPR. At least in the UK regs they made sure it had as little impact on the civil service as possible.

I imagine all those sunbathing in parks suddenly would find better things to do if an app told them someone with coronavirus had recently been there.

 

[Ish]

We should be using this time to talk about how awful Dominic Raab is in case he gets sick and we're no longer allowed to.

 

[giggs-beckham]

They still closed schools, large gatherings and parks etc, you'd think life was carrying on as normal the way some discuss South Korea.

They also have a very intrusive system where citizens records are inspected to track where they've been and this is alerted to other locals through an appbso they can see cases. Personally it's not something I'd mind but there's no way that will fly here.

I'm curious why it wouldn't work here. People might not be comfortable with it but surely would understand the benefits of such an app for tracing the virus spread. If the information was deleted after this is over so it would be a temporary intrusion its something I'd be happy with.
Arent a lot of Europe in the process of doing this as well, it seems we need to be on the same track as this is a long term thing with possible 2nd waves and release and tighten of restrictions over time. If this limits the death toll until we get a vaccine then it's a no brainer really. Desperate times and all that.

 

[Grinner]

I was worried about catching it early and getting caught up in the mass that would flood the hospitals if I got a bad case. We are certainly reading that hospitals are busy but they do seem to be coping. Now I'm thinking that when SD is relaxed there will be a flood of people who assume that the crisis is over and go about their business, ignoring the set protocols, and cause a huge transmission of the virus over a period of time that will really strain the hospitals.

I think the next wave will be far worse than whatever we are going to go through in this first one.