That's shocking numbers. 
Have to admit I mistakenly believed we would see fewer deaths.
Have to admit I mistakenly believed we would see fewer deaths.SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
A week before but on the same number of cases. Which is why they're also suffering the high death rates. Worrying, they're ahead of us by a week so we might just thrash there totals too as we're putting at the same sort of numbers.
France locked down earlier though and look their numbers, after half term I think it was a case of closing the stable door after the horse has bolted.
The deaths and cases will drop off soon but then you have the issues with reopening the country.
I can answer that. A week before the UK. It’s that extra week of faffing, with pubs and clubs full of people, that has hurt the UK so badly. We can just be grateful that organisations like the PL took the initiative and stopped running events with thousands of people packed together before the government got its shit together and belatedly asked them to.
As long as people aren't dying as a result of not being able to get a ventilator or an ICU bed then the lockdown didn't come too late. The numbers were always going to be huge.
Is my thoughts too.
Can of worms this.
Some big numbers and it would seem UK is not actually being stretched as Italy (or Spain Madrid) was when posting 850-950 deaths. We'll see how long it continues but it might say a lot about the health of people here and quality of care. Could we see 1000-1500 when more hospitals get overwhelmed?
Last edited:
People are dying now who would not have even caught the virus had a lockdown been enforced earlier. It doesn't matter if they died because ICU is overwhelmed or not if they hadn't even become ill in the first place
Yep, but issues that must be and will be confronted and dealt with as well as possible. Life will go on, it has to, for the sake of our future.
I think we're in for a torrid few days ahead in terms of numbers, but then I'm hoping to see some improvement.
That is a bloody scandal if true.
That's far too simplistic. For example people have died because doctors didn't have the PPE to treat them so didn't.
The aim of the first wave had to be to delay to ensure as much preparation and knowledge as possible. The idea that ventilators is the only criteria is patently false.
No, that’s not true. Even in Italy, they never actually ran out of ventilators. That’s a bit of a myth that is doing the rounds. It’s not just about being able to ventilate every COVID patient who needs it. It’s about leaving some capacity in your health service to adequately treat all the other patients who continue to need treatment, as well as try and do your best for pandemic patients.
I don’t want to tempt fate but if current trends continue, Ireland has a reasonable chance of getting through this with much less dysfunction in our health service than the NHS will endure. Thanks to earlier actions and much greater clarity of message coming from our government.
Surely China's numbers especially deaths look more bullshite by the day. They built 12 hospitals in Wuhan alone but had around half the deaths of the UK...
Also saw this bit of a conspiracy but wouldn't put it past Republican scum.
Also saw this bit of a conspiracy but wouldn't put it past Republican scum.
936 the UK number is.
Someone posted a report that showed the deaths on discrete days recently, I can't find it. Will be interesting to see when that updates what direction we are heading in on a day by day basis.
I find myself being unable to shake the anger at those sporting events and gigs going ahead when it was hitting the fan in Europe.
Someone posted a report that showed the deaths on discrete days recently, I can't find it. Will be interesting to see when that updates what direction we are heading in on a day by day basis.
I find myself being unable to shake the anger at those sporting events and gigs going ahead when it was hitting the fan in Europe.
That’s a fair point, but without a vaccine there’s a large chance these people would have caught it later instead.
Yes I think obvious for a while. Italy's progression showed the lockdown starts to take effect about 2 weeks in ending the exponential growth, but it takes another 1-2 weeks or so for the growth to then start declining. There curve is almost a Gaussian curve stripped from an A level stats textbook.
Do you mean by day of death? The one for England can be found here: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Has the caf Jury already ruled China is to blame then?
Is my thoughts too.
Let me comment on this. The WHO Executive Board is comprised of the various regions of the World. From Europe they have Germany, Italy, Israel, Latvia Finland,Austria and some other countries.
In the Americas USA has a seat but up to now Trump has not appointed anyone. So how can he be right on WHO when he himself refuses to appoint anyone to the Board?
Australia, Japan, Singapore and China are there too.
By the way all these on the Board are proposed by the respective governments and are Government officials.
What happened in the west is sheer incompetence. Now as always they are trying to blame someone else for their failures. USA tested their first case the same day as Korea which is around the 23rd of January.
Now reports say Trump was informed in January that's it could get very bad in the US in January itself. It's saying the same about Boris Johnson now.
My fear is that, once this is over, the focus might wrongly be on the wet markets.
While it may be true that this virus originated from one, this should not take away from the fact that the world was unprepared to deal with a pandemic as such. Even if wet markets are eradicated, there will be more pandemics in the future.
It is fake. Good of you to point it out so fast, goes to show how easy this stuff is believed. Not that I blame people, these are exceptional times.
But what's more worrying is it does appear to have been started and spread from within camhs first, which is even more irresponsible when you consider what they are there for!
@Revan we were talking about the true death rate about a month ago, what do you think it is now?
Back then the mortality rate in Germany & SK was <1% and we probably thought that was the true rate, because of all the unknown cases. But in both SK and Germay it seems to be converging to around 2% now. So have the deaths just caught up or is it the case that even their testing capacity is being outstripped by the infection rate?
Back then the mortality rate in Germany & SK was <1% and we probably thought that was the true rate, because of all the unknown cases. But in both SK and Germay it seems to be converging to around 2% now. So have the deaths just caught up or is it the case that even their testing capacity is being outstripped by the infection rate?
So, if I'm interpreting these spreadsheets correctly, the deaths that took place yesterday were the lowest they've been in the last 14 days, is that right? They've been declining for the last 3 days. Would that suggest a peak has already happened?
Updated graph of English deaths by day of death (last 5-6 days will see significant upward revision):Here's a graph of deaths per day in England once they've been distributed according to the date of death rather than date of reporting (the last 5 days will likely see significant revision):
That 271 from last Tuesday seems massively out of place.
Either that or the Wuhan Ban ain't nuttin to feck wit.
It's going to take a huge plot twist for them not to be responsible for it.
Unfortunately not. Basically there's almost always a lag between the day the death occurs and the day it is reported. Today's figures added 306 to yesterday's total, 162 to the day before that, then 93 for Sunday, etc, etc. We won't know the specifics of yesterdays real figure with any degree of confidence for going on a week.
You could maybe say that the increase of new deaths is starting to slow down, but looking at how deaths are filling in for the past weekend it certainly looks like we're still trending higher.
given we can't stay in a lockdown for 18 months, it's going to be very difficult to ensure the elderely and vulnerable don't get ill even after this lockdown is eased.
Chinese scientists were letting people know in January. most of the West sat on it until March. i can already see Europe deflecting from their own inadequate response by pinning all of this on China, once this is all over and done with.
Probably both, I would say.
I still think it is quite below 1%. Iceland has tested around 5% of their population and there is around 0.4%. Diamond Princess had tested everyone and the rate is slightly above 1% but the age distribution is very different from the real world (old people are over represented, young people are under represented). I think there was a research paper who estimated it to around 0.6% which might be right.
I am curious to see how the situation evolves in Iceland. If other people who are sick die and the rate increases, then that is bad news. If not, then their ratio is probably the best number we have.
Btw, Germany is doing far more testing per capita than any other big country (though quite less than Iceland and a few other small countries) but even there is it very hard to get a test if you are not sick. So the asymptomatic cases (and those with very mild symptoms) do not figure in their official cases.
Responsible for what?
Just been out for my food shop. Seems to be a lot of people just walking about today, even saw some people walking back from the shop with just an ice cream and nothing else.
That’s a good point
Nah. They're debating. Ad infinitum.
I seem to remember countries taking precautions much earlier than March, may have been ineffective and overly hopeful that China could contain in Wuhan . No matter how confused, non-united in their efforts and ineffectual I feel you are drawing a completely inaccurate picture. There's not much credit to go around but the various effects were complex.
I agree but I arrive at this belief based on their authoritarian system of government scaring doctors into not reporting properly. The cover up is a problem. I don't see how you can argue against this.
I still think there is probably something in the eating of animals that carry the virus but its harder to explain. SARS came from similar origins and its just too much of a coincidence for this be written off as a potential cause.
This. The only scenario I see is a large proportion of the society getting this, as I don't believe a vaccine will be developed in time.
Countries that locked down hard early will need to stay more stringently locked down for longer than the countries who locked down later. That comes at huge economic cost. If they don't they've just shifted the peak to no benefit and extra economic cost.
How China "LIED" to the world!
*4 months ago*
*China:* OK there's a new virus. From now on no one moves around. If you go out, you must wear a mask. Nationwide lockdown and quarantine policies implemented.
*The West:* Don't trust anything these f**ing commies say! It's just a flu! They are trying to control everyone's life! There's no need for masks.
*Asia:* Let's take measures, wear masks and control frontiers
*3 months ago*
*China:* Start building hospitals so the medical system doesn't get overwhelmed.
*The West:* It's a concentration camp! They are murdering people out there! They are untrustworthy!
*Asia:* We keep our distance and security high
*2 month ago*
*China:* We are experiencing a surge of patients and this virus is super infectious via air and physical contact. We are also experiencing shortage on medical supplies and medical practitioners. Pulling everything from the country to Wuhan.
*The West:* Look how backward they are, not even having enough PPE for their doctors and nurses. They are clearly wrong about the method of transmission, that's why they are making everyone wear masks. They've even locked down the country and stopped the economy. What a bunch of idiots.
*Whole Asia:* Are those western countries gonna do something?
*over a month ago*
*China:* Numbers are reducing in China. People are slowly getting back to work now.
*The West:* F**ing liar! We are seeing numbers in Italy and it clearly doesn't match data from China! Millions of Chinese people must have died! It's still spreading!
*Whole Asia:* Why do they say masks are useless?
*a month ago*
*China:* Dude, why are things getting out of control out there? Where are your hospitals and why are you not in total lockdown? Were you just sitting there pointing fingers at me for three months, and did nothing?
*The west:* You commies never told us how dangerous this virus is! You've been giving us false data the whole time!!!
*China:* I don't understand. If you never trusted me, and when I said it's a big deal, you insisted it's actually a small flu, why do you maintain that millions of people must have died in China? If you think the number of deaths must be very high, doesn't that indicate it's a dangerous virus and you should be prepared? How could you believe millions of people have died, but at the same time not recognising it's dangerous?
*the West:* It's only a big deal in a backward country like yours, where people are poor and unhygienic, where the medical system is still in the 50's, where the government covers up figures and doesn't alarm people [as to] how dangerous it is! It shouldn't affect advanced countries like us!
*China:* But it is with you and killing your people now!!! Do something about it so you can still save lives!!!
*The West:* Not before we found everything we can blame on you!!! It's too late for us to do something now, people will just die and eventually we'll have herd immunity, but you must take the full responsibility for it!
*Now*
*World:* China help us. We need masks, ventilators, PPE etc.
*China:* To the best of my ability, I'll send PPE and medical personnel.
*The west:* You helped out of ulterior political motives to expand your influence ! Your numbers are fake. Tons of people died in your country. Our superior system technology and medicine are the proof that this virus couldn't be beaten with such low death numbers.
*Whole Asia:* What about all our numbers? much lower than China?
*England:* I'm going to sue you for billions of dollars and make you take responsability for all that mess.
*4 months ago*
*China:* OK there's a new virus. From now on no one moves around. If you go out, you must wear a mask. Nationwide lockdown and quarantine policies implemented.
*The West:* Don't trust anything these f**ing commies say! It's just a flu! They are trying to control everyone's life! There's no need for masks.
*Asia:* Let's take measures, wear masks and control frontiers
*3 months ago*
*China:* Start building hospitals so the medical system doesn't get overwhelmed.
*The West:* It's a concentration camp! They are murdering people out there! They are untrustworthy!
*Asia:* We keep our distance and security high
*2 month ago*
*China:* We are experiencing a surge of patients and this virus is super infectious via air and physical contact. We are also experiencing shortage on medical supplies and medical practitioners. Pulling everything from the country to Wuhan.
*The West:* Look how backward they are, not even having enough PPE for their doctors and nurses. They are clearly wrong about the method of transmission, that's why they are making everyone wear masks. They've even locked down the country and stopped the economy. What a bunch of idiots.
*Whole Asia:* Are those western countries gonna do something?
*over a month ago*
*China:* Numbers are reducing in China. People are slowly getting back to work now.
*The West:* F**ing liar! We are seeing numbers in Italy and it clearly doesn't match data from China! Millions of Chinese people must have died! It's still spreading!
*Whole Asia:* Why do they say masks are useless?
*a month ago*
*China:* Dude, why are things getting out of control out there? Where are your hospitals and why are you not in total lockdown? Were you just sitting there pointing fingers at me for three months, and did nothing?
*The west:* You commies never told us how dangerous this virus is! You've been giving us false data the whole time!!!
*China:* I don't understand. If you never trusted me, and when I said it's a big deal, you insisted it's actually a small flu, why do you maintain that millions of people must have died in China? If you think the number of deaths must be very high, doesn't that indicate it's a dangerous virus and you should be prepared? How could you believe millions of people have died, but at the same time not recognising it's dangerous?
*the West:* It's only a big deal in a backward country like yours, where people are poor and unhygienic, where the medical system is still in the 50's, where the government covers up figures and doesn't alarm people [as to] how dangerous it is! It shouldn't affect advanced countries like us!
*China:* But it is with you and killing your people now!!! Do something about it so you can still save lives!!!
*The West:* Not before we found everything we can blame on you!!! It's too late for us to do something now, people will just die and eventually we'll have herd immunity, but you must take the full responsibility for it!
*Now*
*World:* China help us. We need masks, ventilators, PPE etc.
*China:* To the best of my ability, I'll send PPE and medical personnel.
*The west:* You helped out of ulterior political motives to expand your influence ! Your numbers are fake. Tons of people died in your country. Our superior system technology and medicine are the proof that this virus couldn't be beaten with such low death numbers.
*Whole Asia:* What about all our numbers? much lower than China?
*England:* I'm going to sue you for billions of dollars and make you take responsability for all that mess.