Change of mood in the corona crisis
Dangerous annoyance
So far, the Germans have endured the measures for corona containment in a disciplined manner. A weekly psychogram now reveals an alarming change.
Psychologists have a name for a phenomenon that could soon prove to be a major challenge for Germany's crisis management in Corona times: "Disaster Fatigue". It is a term used to describe the weariness in the face of too much bad news; the feeling of annoyance that makes us rebel against an excess of disaster reports.
Cornelia Betsch is a psychologist at the University of Erfurt and has made the explosive diagnosis. Week after week Betsch evaluates the answers of 1000 respondents, on the basis of which she tries to determine the mood of the Germans during the corona crisis. In the first five weeks of the crisis "everything went well", the psychologist states. Now she has sounded the alarm for the first time.
The evaluation of the current survey is worrying: slowly, people's fear of the rampant corona virus is fading. Confidence that the health care system will be able to cope with the number of Covid-19 patients has grown. This is also reflected in a survey by the Civey opinion research institute. According to the survey, 62 percent of Germans are "clearly" or "rather optimistic" that the country will come through the crisis well.
As fear of the virus wanes, people's economic concerns will come to the fore. Acceptance for the state-imposed ban on contact, for the closure of schools and businesses is crumbling. Discontent is growing, especially among the younger generation. They suffer particularly from boredom, loneliness and fear of the future.
At first everything seemed fine
"In Germany, unlike in many other countries, we rely predominantly on voluntary action," says Betsch. "It is particularly important to recognize such signals early on and to react to them."
At the beginning of March, when it was clear that the Corona pandemic would not be stopped, Betsch decided to draw up a psychogram of the population: She wanted to record as precisely as possible the fears and concerns with which the Germans would react to the virus and the government measures to contain it.
In the meantime, COSMO, as the Erfurt psychologists' study developed in cooperation with the Robert Koch Institute is called, has become an important instrument of epidemic policy. Betsch proudly points out that around 40 other countries around the world have taken the Erfurt method as a model to be able to capture moods in the country as quickly as possible.
Initially, COSMO had mainly reassuring things to report: The Germans' risk awareness increased rapidly, they appeared to be well informed, and there was a great deal of understanding for the government measures. Many fears also proved to be unjustified or exaggerated: "For example, we discovered that the much-lamented corona parties hardly exist. Discrimination and exclusion are also rare," says Betsch.
Rebellion or habituation effect?
However, the evaluation of the sixth COSMO week suddenly showed that something was different: instead of 54 percent before, only 45 percent of those surveyed now state that their thoughts are constantly revolving around the corona virus. Whereas 60 percent of the people had been afraid of the disease in the weeks before, this proportion was now only 52 percent. Conversely, the number of those who consider the measures to be excessive has increased.
Is this a sign of genuine rebellion or just a familiarization effect? Is the impression gaining ground that the worst is already over? Or has the public debate on exit strategies raised expectations that the exit restrictions will soon be lifted? The COSMO data do not provide any information on the causes of the change in sentiment. They only show that something is happening.
Dirk Brockmann of Berlin's Humboldt University can confirm this. He evaluates movement data from mobile phones and found that Germans who have been staying at home for three weeks are leaving their homes again. The data is unmistakable evidence of the reawakening of the urge to move.
On behalf of the Robert Koch Institute, Brockmann evaluates mobile phone data provided by Telekom. This allows him to identify the flow of traffic in the country and thus estimate the routes by which the virus is spreading throughout Germany. As a side effect, he was able to see how the pattern of movement changed during the shutdown: The mobility of the Germans dropped abruptly by around 40 percent.
Then came the call from Erfurt. "Mrs Betsch asked: We see a change in our data. Do you see something in yours too?", Brockmann said. At that time, the Berlin researcher had not yet noticed any effect. Only shortly afterwards an irritated employee approached him: "Look," he said. "There's something funny. Mobility is increasing again."
Betsch and Brockmann compared their findings and were fascinated to see how well they matched. "One may mistrust every record for itself," says Brockmann. "But if there are such similar results from two completely different sources, then it probably won't be a coincidence." Betsch now considers it urgent to react to the change of mood in the country. "We must make people aware that we must not gamble away our profits now," she says.
In fact, in the week before Easter there had been calls for relaxation of regulations and supposed signals of an improvement in the situation. Scientific studies seemed to suggest that children are rarely carriers of the virus and that schools may soon be reopened. The cross-sectional study from Heinsberg, which has since become controversial, assumed that at least there, there was an increased infestation and herd immunity of humans. Politicians also debated a possible exit from the lockdown more intensively.
On the other hand, there are urgent warnings from the scientific community that the measures should not be relaxed, but should even be tightened. A study has also simulated how Easter visits to the family could once again accelerate the spread of the pandemic in Germany and undo the containment achieved so far. Betsch also sees this danger: "We have all incurred high costs so far. If we slack off now, it was all in vain.
What would have made it a 10/10?