SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

JPRouve

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Surely letting people travel from country to country doesn't help. All the borders should be shut and no flight should be allowed unless for supplies.
You are not allowed to travel from country to country.
 

Penna

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Surely letting people travel from country to country doesn't help. All the borders should be shut and no flight should be allowed unless for supplies.
My sister and nephew had a weekend in Rome on 15/16 Feb (10 weeks ago), when things were happening in China but not in European countries. I was a bit concerned at the time that they were making the trip, but not unduly so.

They had their temperatures taken when they got off the plane in Rome, which she was surprised about at the time. Italy's been checking people for a long time now.

edit - the problem in the UK isn't long-distance travel, it's as @11101 says - a half-hearted attempt at a "lockdown" and no enforcement except "please go home". People can be out wandering around all day, every day and go from one shop to another ad infinitum. It's not enough.
 

Sparky Rhiwabon

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I've said this before but it's because it's not a lockdown. It's too relaxed. I still know so many people who dont think it's a big deal.

Wuhan literally bolted people in their houses and it took them 6 weeks to get it under control. Italy has been a step below that and almost 2 months later is just about confident the peak is behind them. The UK will take much longer as long as everybody takes their hour (and the rest) exercise every day and nobody is around to enforce the rules on people who ignore them.
Is the UK sort of still doing a "herd immunity lite" type strategy but without calling it that? I.e. Allowing a steady stream of people to get infected (and a percentage of which to die) whilst keeping it below NHS capacity?
 

sullydnl

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For context, back in March Patrick Vallance said keeping deaths at 20,000 or below would be a good outcome. So hospital deaths have now broken that barrier.

I'm not sure if that 20,000 figure was meant to be just hospital deaths either or if he meant overall deaths. If it's the latter then that barrier was broken quite a while ago, with the Financial Times estimating current total UK deaths at over 40k.

Either way, you'd certainly hope there will be an inquiry when all this is done to look at exactly why the "good outcome" standard they set for themselves wasn't met.
 

redshaw

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Perhaps other measures before the lockdown helped in other countries as well as being stricter. We were most similar to Germany letting things carry on but had a very different outcome, big difference in testing and possibly contact tracing, I know some of that went on in Germany, I think that's key to really suppressing it. UK might have a wide spread too. France and UK were really late in getting testing going but France has been the next best after Germany in hospital deaths. UK airports have been so lax from day one, no fecks given.

The health of people, healthcare, attitudes and bone-idleness in the UK leave a lot to be desired.
 
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noodlehair

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I've said this before but it's because it's not a lockdown. It's too relaxed. I still know so many people who dont think it's a big deal.

Wuhan literally bolted people in their houses and it took them 6 weeks to get it under control. Italy has been a step below that and almost 2 months later is just about confident the peak is behind them. The UK will take much longer as long as everybody takes their hour (and the rest) exercise every day and nobody is around to enforce the rules on people who ignore them.
There's no point relying on the information from Wuhan as nothing about any of what China have reported tallies up with what's going on anywhere else...and you can't "bolt people in their homes" as you'll kill 10x more than the virus ever will.

The problem here has been a lack of any kind of planning at all. We implemented a plan based on nothing more than a flimsy piece of science estimating how the virus spreads, and at a point where we had no idea at all how many people already had it, so even that piece of science was missing half the equation.

We have a random lunatic running the government using another random lunatic as a puppet. Our "Chief Medical Officer" has offered nothing approaching any kind of scientific insight. He is the same man who argued the best way to combat ebola was to "encourage" people who have it to go and die together in death camps (there's even a link to a paper he literally wrote arguing this on his Wikipedia page). Sweden, Germany etc. were putting scientists in charge and listening to experts while we were relying on a bunch of chancers who more resemble a group of Apprentice contestants fumbling around trying to pretend they aren't just half brained car salesmen. Other countries were making plans while these idiots were still concerning themselves with championing Brexit and child like dramatic attention seeking. That is why we are in this position

Other factors to consider:
- There have been over 5,000 "additional" deaths in the first 2 weeks in April, which can't be linked to corona virus...the most likely contributing factor to these deaths is the "relaxed" lockdown measures, as you call them. Implementing more strict measures with a health and welfare system that the government has purposely run down has the very realistic risk of these deaths OVERTAKING the number dying from corona virus...and at that point you can bet the media will start taking notice rather than just ignoring it, and then we'll have chaos.
- A few people sunbathing in a park actually has very little impact on how much the virus spreads. Shops and supermarkets have a much bigger impact and unfortunately people need to buy food and stuff in order to not die. Another thing having a very big impact is the government not supplying PPE equipment to medical staff who they are LEGEALLY REQUIRED to provide it to.
- The whole plan has never been about preventing anyone from dying or even particularly minimising it. We waited far too long for that. It's been about allowing the NHS to cope with the inevitable mess, and it somehow seems to have worked so far. We'll be going past the total number dead in Italy soon enough so it's pointless worrying about that. It doesn't account for differences in recording numbers or population levels. I've seen credible reports suggesting the number dead in Italy is actually up to three times that they've reported, because they simply weren't able to keep up or find room for everyone in a hospital. That has not happened here and we should actually be quite grateful for that I think. Especially considering what a poor job our government has made of it. People in the actual healthcare sector and those that have helped provide extra equipment and facilities have done a very good job.

Regardless I suspect the numbers are going to reach a point where Cummings and his gang of lunatics aren't really going to have anything to hide behind. Blame the public all you want but if the public aren't listening it's because they don't trust the people in charge.
 

giggs-beckham

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I still think as I said yesterday that this isnt a decline but a sort of continual plateau and a reflection of the specifics of our 'lockdown'.
Why should these numbers disappear to 0? This isnt a lockdown theres still loads of cars on the roads and people are out and about it looks nearly as busy as before.
I dont see how hard it was to say, the rule is to excersise for up to 1 hour a day maximum.
 

Kag

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I still think as I said yesterday that this isnt a decline but a sort of continual plateau based on the specifics of our 'lockdown'.
Why should these numbers disappear to 0? This isnt a lockdown theres still loads of cars on the roads and people are out and about it looks nearly as busy as before.
I dont see how hard it was to say, the rule is to excersise for up to 1 hour a day maximum.
No, it isn’t. It’s getting a little tedious having to read this, actually. There is no written governmental guidance that specifies this anywhere.
 

DomesticTadpole

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You are not allowed to travel from country to country.
Didn't the lads in Ireland say that there were English traveling over to second homes and bringing caravans over? Georgie Bingham on Talksport was going apoplectic this morning about the supermarket she was using, getting rid of the distancing markers, letting as many people in as wanted to go in all at once and social distancing had gone completely out of the window.
 

Adamsk7

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Also, it’s not like we’ve been at 800-900 deaths since the lockdown started.
 

One Night Only

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Pritti doing a lot of blaming the public today. Distraction tactics.
It's pretty fair tbh, the general public are being total asshats and not following simple guidelines. Government chose to treat us like adults, now it's time they step up and treat us like the children we are.

Alot of people on furlough are using this like a massive holiday.

People shopping to get out the house for a bit. Everyone going insane now it's been 5 weeks? All because they couldn't stick to it properly from the start.

Whoever mentioned we are doing herd immunity lite is correct. The public can't follow simple rules so it's our only option till a vaccine is found.
 

711

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No, it isn’t. It’s getting a little tedious having to read this, actually. There is no written governmental guidance that specifies this anywhere.
True, but what's worse is people confusing Government guidelines on how we should behave to reduce the spread of disease with Crown Prosecution Service guidelines to the police on what constitutes an actual breach of the law. I'm not sure a single newspaper or tv station appreciates the difference.
 

One Night Only

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No, it isn’t. It’s getting a little tedious having to read this, actually. There is no written governmental guidance that specifies this anywhere.
Have you heard this said? It's been briefed in pressers, news channels went with it etc.

Do you want the government to give you guidelines on how to wipe your arse too? Just because it's not written down doesn't mean you don't follow it.

Ridiculous how this country needs to be spoon fed information and rules. Absolute babies.
 

noodlehair

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Another factor, without meaning to sound like a Brexit championer, is that a significant number of the Eastern Europeans here are completely ignoring the lockdown and social distancing advice and just carrying on as normal. It's been so obviously apparent it's actually changed my views quite a bit. Every time I go out running their are groups of them in the park, not even out of the way, literally just standing directly in everyone's path. All of their businesses are still open, including pointless things like car washing. My downstairs neighbour still keeps having his mates and parents over. I've had to have a go at him when him and his mate barged past me in the corridor.

They are a minority locally here in terms of the general population, yet at the moment they are a quite vast majority of the people out and about.

Unfortunately it seems we tend to collect a lot of the thickos that other countries don't have a use for...and we already have enough of our own to deal with frankly. In a situation like this idiots are always going to be the cause of a majority of the problems. A large collection of low skilled and generally quite ignorant people is never a good thing to have in a crisis. Especially when a section of them are not integrated properly so show little respect for the common cause.
 

Sparky Rhiwabon

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It's pretty fair tbh, the general public are being total asshats and not following simple guidelines. Government chose to treat us like adults, now it's time they step up and treat us like the children we are.

Alot of people on furlough are using this like a massive holiday.

People shopping to get out the house for a bit. Everyone going insane now it's been 5 weeks? All because they couldn't stick to it properly from the start.

Whoever mentioned we are doing herd immunity lite is correct. The public can't follow simple rules so it's our only option till a vaccine is found.
That was me as well! :)
 

Kag

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It's pretty fair tbh, the general public are being total asshats and not following simple guidelines. Government chose to treat us like adults, now it's time they step up and treat us like the children we are.

Alot of people on furlough are using this like a massive holiday.

People shopping to get out the house for a bit. Everyone going insane now it's been 5 weeks? All because they couldn't stick to it properly from the start.

Whoever mentioned we are doing herd immunity lite is correct. The public can't follow simple rules so it's our only option till a vaccine is found.
Jumped up, Facebook-warrior dogshit, to be frank.

The vast majority of the general public has overwhelmingly followed the guidance implemented, as is evident by all kinds of data to support this.

There are businesses that have started to return to work over the past week, which will only increase as people start to feel the burn of financial penalty. People will follow guidance until putting food on the table becomes an issue. On that front, we’re getting there.
 

One Night Only

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Another factor, without meaning to sound like a Brexit championer, is that a significant number of the Eastern Europeans here are completely ignoring the lockdown and social distancing advice and just carrying on as normal. It's been so obviously apparent it's actually changed my views quite a bit. Every time I go out running their are groups of them in the park, not even out of the way, literally just standing directly in everyone's path. All of their businesses are still open, including pointless things like car washing. My downstairs neighbour still keeps having his mates and parents over. I've had to have a go at him when him and his mate barged past me in the corridor.

They are a minority locally here in terms of the general population, yet at the moment they are a quite vast majority of the people out and about.

Unfortunately it seems we tend to collect a lot of the thickos that other countries don't have a use for...and we already have enough of our own to deal with frankly. In a situation like this idiots are always going to be the cause of a majority of the problems. A large collection of low skilled and generally quite ignorant people is never a good thing to have in a crisis. Especially when a section of them are not integrated properly so show little respect for the common cause.
Think it might have something to do with not being here legally? Cant claim furlough if they're not in the system. Also cash in hand jobs a lot of them will work too I'd expect even if here legally. So no paper trail for them to claim anything, they'll need to work to survive, at the same time, if they aren't here legally it really should be they're sent where ever their legal residence is?
 

Kag

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Have you heard this said? It's been briefed in pressers, news channels went with it etc.

Do you want the government to give you guidelines on how to wipe your arse too? Just because it's not written down doesn't mean you don't follow it.

Ridiculous how this country needs to be spoon fed information and rules. Absolute babies.
:lol:

You’re a nut. Let’s allow the spread of misinformation because it suits an immature representation of reality.

There is no government guidance, regulation or rule that says exercise is limited to one hour. It is important to acknowledge that during a period in which clear messaging is paramount.

From reading your posts, it might be you who requires spoon-feeding.
 

giggs-beckham

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No, it isn’t. It’s getting a little tedious having to read this, actually. There is no written governmental guidance that specifies this anywhere.
That's what I'm saying, how hard was it for them to say that?
 

JMack1234

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My local park is the busiest it's been since the lockdown came in. Loads of people having pic nics, sunbathing etc. I'd say it's at about the level it was the weekend before the lockdown came in.

Obviously that's anecdotal, but you accompany that with businesses beginning to re-open and the roads getting busier.

Lockdown beginning to fizzle out?
 

Sarni

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I think for all their faults our government has done a great job containing this. We are still at under 500 deaths and start to slowly come out of lockdown with softer restrictions. They do get a lot of stick though as most of the country has become conspiracy theorists saying they were protecting us from ‘a weak flu’ and killed economy on purpose. It will probably get worse soon because people here just don’t believe this is a genuine threat for them.
 

noodlehair

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It's pretty fair tbh, the general public are being total asshats and not following simple guidelines. Government chose to treat us like adults, now it's time they step up and treat us like the children we are.

Alot of people on furlough are using this like a massive holiday.

People shopping to get out the house for a bit. Everyone going insane now it's been 5 weeks? All because they couldn't stick to it properly from the start.

Whoever mentioned we are doing herd immunity lite is correct. The public can't follow simple rules so it's our only option till a vaccine is found.
This is a bonkers argument. Who do you count as "the general public"...a vast majority are following the guidelines to the letter, and many of those that aren't are making little difference to anything. Who is shopping to "get out for a bit"? What shops are they going in when only the essential ones are even open? It's just childish presumptuous nonsense to be honest.

I don't know ANYONE on furlough using it as a holiday. Most are just at home getting on with the situation or are worried they wont have a job after.

"It's our only option until a vaccine is found"...I don't even know where to start with this. How do you propose to produce a vaccine in time to stop hundreds of thousands of people dying as prisoners in their own homes within the next year? Statistically lockdown has killed potentially 5000+ people in the space of two weeks...we're at 5 weeks now. That number is going to be 10,000+...as an example, I know of one person who has committed suicide. My dad who is on the at risk list is smoking and drinking 3x as much...this is AS dangerous to his health condition as corona virus.

Lockdown measures even as they are are NOT a viable medium or long term plan. They are nowhere close to it. For all we know we are already approaching the point now where they do more damage than they prevent.

Did you know that there is no guarantee there'll ever be a vaccine? Did you knwo that when there is it'll be of little use to a lot of people on the at risk list because their imune system isn't strong enough to deal with a vaccine? The flu has been around for 100 years and the vaccine for that is still only useful to a very small percentage of people.

What is needed is better research and testing rather than childish blame games where the person being blamed is "the general public"...basically saying it's people's fault for existing. If that's the case we might as well have no lockdown measures and carry on as normal.
 

One Night Only

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Jumped up, Facebook-warrior dogshit, to be frank.

The vast majority of the general public has overwhelmingly followed the guidance implemented, as is evident by all kinds of data to support this.

There are businesses that have started to return to work over the past week, which will only increase as people start to feel the burn of financial penalty. People will follow guidance until putting food on the table becomes an issue. On that front, we’re getting there.
Absolute shite, look a the "clap" in whatever bridge it was, look at the companies still working when told not to if it's not essential.

People are pretending to follow guidelines but they're not, I've seen loads preach in Facebook, but then they're at the shops 3-4 times a week? Or they've nipped to see their mam?

It's a smokescreen from people, telling social media what they want them to.

A Chinese takeaway opened here last night I think it was, queues for miles, no social distancing.

If you are the type sticking to the guidelines perfectly, then your circle of friends / associates are probably from the same type of cloth and do the same so that's what you see.

Look at a different demographic to yourself and see what is happening, young people (16-30) who have the jobless, drug using, drinking lifestyle. They haven't stopped point blank.

I know "sensible" people who think a shop at b and m for new curtains is essential.

Maybe I went OTT saying general public are asshats, but there are enough asshats to destroy it, the busy bodies reporting people are also breaking the rules cos they're constantly out for any excuse to catch other people. I know dogs that haven't been walked for years suddenly getting dragged about by owners, friends, family, just so they have an extra excuse to go out. Now the police aren't that arsed, the dog paths are just about empty as they were before lockdown.
 

JPRouve

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Didn't the lads in Ireland say that there were English traveling over to second homes and bringing caravans over? Georgie Bingham on Talksport was going apoplectic this morning about the supermarket she was using, getting rid of the distancing markers, letting as many people in as wanted to go in all at once and social distancing had gone completely out of the window.
You are right, the UK only advised against it, while many other countries have forbidden non essential travels within and outside countries. I sometimes forgot that we are not in the same countries.

Look at France on flight trackers, there is very little activity.
 

Kag

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That's what I'm saying, how hard was it for them to say that?
It wasn’t. I think the government should have been clearer (and significantly quicker) on many things from the outset. But limiting exercise time to a specific timeframe was, ultimately, not policy.
 

noodlehair

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My local park is the busiest it's been since the lockdown came in. Loads of people having pic nics, sunbathing etc. I'd say it's at about the level it was the weekend before the lockdown came in.

Obviously that's anecdotal, but you accompany that with businesses beginning to re-open and the roads getting busier.

Lockdown beginning to fizzle out?
Fatigue and the government in near open warfare while making noises about easing restrictions. That said the local park here had literally 2 people in it earlier. The least busy I've ever seen it...but there has been noticably more traffic the last couple of days.
 

One Night Only

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This is a bonkers argument. Who do you count as "the general public"...a vast majority are following the guidelines to the letter, and many of those that aren't are making little difference to anything. Who is shopping to "get out for a bit"? What shops are they going in when only the essential ones are even open? It's just childish presumptuous nonsense to be honest.

I don't know ANYONE on furlough using it as a holiday. Most are just at home getting on with the situation or are worried they wont have a job after.

"It's our only option until a vaccine is found"...I don't even know where to start with this. How do you propose to produce a vaccine in time to stop hundreds of thousands of people dying as prisoners in their own homes within the next year? Statistically lockdown has killed potentially 5000+ people in the space of two weeks...we're at 5 weeks now. That number is going to be 10,000+...as an example, I know of one person who has committed suicide. My dad who is on the at risk list is smoking and drinking 3x as much...this is AS dangerous to his health condition as corona virus.

Lockdown measures even as they are are NOT a viable medium or long term plan. They are nowhere close to it. For all we know we are already approaching the point now where they do more damage than they prevent.

Did you know that there is no guarantee there'll ever be a vaccine? Did you knwo that when there is it'll be of little use to a lot of people on the at risk list because their imune system isn't strong enough to deal with a vaccine? The flu has been around for 100 years and the vaccine for that is still only useful to a very small percentage of people.
So if there is never a vaccine you want us all to just basically be imprisoned forever?

Also see my post before this. Mentioning about demographics and back tracking on general public a bit.

I'm not a fan of lockdown, but my point is if everyone could have just stuck to it for a few weeks, and done what the guidance said, we wouldn't be in a forever loop of lockdown which from the stats is looking likely for the foreseeable.

It's took since 23rd march and we have flattened the curve, that's pretty good overall, but from the amount of posts in here, it's obvious everyone is become more relaxed over it all and more people are out and about.

Anyone who has stuck to it so far isn't going to be able to keep it up for much longer, it's becoming tiring. I'm lucky enough I'm a key worker and get to goto work for a break from the 4 walls, the missus and the kids. Not everyone has that luxury.
 

giggs-beckham

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It wasn’t. I think the government should have been clearer (and significantly quicker) on many things from the outset. But limiting exercise time to a specific timeframe was, ultimately, not policy.
That's the point I was making they said excersise once a day but didnt say how long for. Again how hard was it for them to put say a 1 hour limit on it but they didnt is the clear point I was making.
 

DomesticTadpole

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You are right, the UK only advised against it, while many other countries have forbidden non essential travels within and outside countries. I sometimes forgot that we are not in the same countries.

Look at France on flight trackers, there is very little activity.
It's mad seeing that was likely how it was spread in the first place. It's amazing how complacent people have been and those numbers are growing.
 

sullydnl

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Tbf according to Chris Whitty the UK's R(0) number is somewhere between 0.5 and 1. If so then a lot of people have definitely been abiding by lockdown properly.

Immediately blaming the UK public seems strange to me. Like all other publics, they have to be managed through a crisis like this. If that doesn't happen (or indeed even if there are bad outcomes despite that happening) then I would be inclined to look at the government's actions, timing and messaging first and ask if that's where the fault lies.
 

Sweet Square

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If that's not essential, nothing is.
ours has been coming every 2 days for a fortnight now, essential my arse
The feck? I'll have a 99 with a flake!
In fairness it's well known that my local ice cream man used to sell ecstasy as a side gig(He would hide the pills at the bottom of the ice cream cones, apparently), so I'm guessing it's a busy time for him during the lockdown. And really this is the sort of entrepreneurship Britain needs in this time of crisis.
 

giggs-beckham

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My local park is the busiest it's been since the lockdown came in. Loads of people having pic nics, sunbathing etc. I'd say it's at about the level it was the weekend before the lockdown came in.

Obviously that's anecdotal, but you accompany that with businesses beginning to re-open and the roads getting busier.

Lockdown beginning to fizzle out?
I dont believe this lockdown will be good enough in it's current form. My local town seems busy still. It also has big signs up saying 'Check in on your 5 nearest neighbour's'
'Let's get Frome covered'
 

Cardboard elk

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Norway is also very different in its population density and how they are spread out. The UK and Italy are fairly similar.
I said so myself in my post, however, It stands to reason that how the people acts acc. to govt guidelines and rules, how widespread the disease was before shutdown etc has something to do with it. We tested much more and closed down earlier. Of course easier here, lower pop.density etc, still, the virus would have spread more here as well. But since you never really knew how many were infected early on, then some people infect those at home, at work etc and the virus circulates even during a lockdown. The percentage of infected at the time you lock down means a lot as to how long it takes to take down the numbers. Germany tested many early on, and propably closed down earlier relative to percantage of infected.
How early you shutdown means a lot I do think. However, no nation can cope with eternal shutdown so maybe it does not really matter, what matters is finding the golden line to balance on during this period until a poss. vaccine.
I really hope your numbers go down soon. They are really high.
 

Kag

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Absolute shite, look a the "clap" in whatever bridge it was, look at the companies still working when told not to if it's not essential.

People are pretending to follow guidelines but they're not, I've seen loads preach in Facebook, but then they're at the shops 3-4 times a week? Or they've nipped to see their mam?

It's a smokescreen from people, telling social media what they want them to.

A Chinese takeaway opened here last night I think it was, queues for miles, no social distancing.

If you are the type sticking to the guidelines perfectly, then your circle of friends / associates are probably from the same type of cloth and do the same so that's what you see.

Look at a different demographic to yourself and see what is happening, young people (16-30) who have the jobless, drug using, drinking lifestyle. They haven't stopped point blank.

I know "sensible" people who think a shop at b and m for new curtains is essential.

Maybe I went OTT saying general public are asshats, but there are enough asshats to destroy it, the busy bodies reporting people are also breaking the rules cos they're constantly out for any excuse to catch other people. I know dogs that haven't been walked for years suddenly getting dragged about by owners, friends, family, just so they have an extra excuse to go out. Now the police aren't that arsed, the dog paths are just about empty as they were before lockdown.
Brilliant.

A video of some wankers on a bridge circulated on Twitter. A Chinese restaurant opening (which is within the guidelines) near you. Companies that you know are working in spite of the circumstances - haven’t you wondered why that might actually be?

The demographic assumption is interesting; I’m 27 next month. What you say doesn’t ring true to me. I run and cycle regularly and my anecdotal opinion is that the vast majority of people I see out and about are older. Little Doris taking a doozy to the SPAR for her Daily Mirror. Lots of them. But I’m not going to tar every Little Doris with the same brush as my perception might be totally different to yours, or anyone else’s.

I’m looking at the hard numbers: public transport levels, road usage, school numbers etc. The public has overwhelmingly complied with the guidance and I don’t think that is up for debate. Yes, there are people who haven’t but be rational about it.

Compliance is going to drop, however. Primarily because some people are starting to feel the financial burn. They need to return to work and they will do so if and when the guidance allows them to.
 

One Night Only

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Anyone work in a supermarket? I can't understand why they've stopped the 24 hour thing. At first I thought it was to stock up at night due to selling out of allsorts.

Now their isn't really panic buying, I thought 24 hours would be better for the flow rate going through the shops?

Or is it still a case of stock up during closing hours to keep stockers away from public during it all? Keeping shifts apart, only risking half their staff at a time?