Westminster Politics

[Don't Kill Bill]

I think people underestimate the impact of Brexit as a catalyst of breaking through tribalism and allowing older staunch Labour voters who have drifted to the right as their circumstances became more comfortable to vote for a party they detested with their entire being 30+ years ago.

Where a lot of these people hated the Tories because of Thatcher and the war on the Unions and the working classes, they now hate the EU and liberalism which they believe has failed them as they sit in their £300k house they bought for £18k and moan about a younger generation who have it easier than they do.

I agree its broken the party. I think that it is as much to do with the Labour Party's reaction to those Brexit voters as it is to do with the party's positions on Brexit. The Labour party has spent the four/five years between the referendum and this election calling them ignorant racists. The funny thing is they then expected Brexit voters to ignore that and vote Labour. You really have to be other level stupid to not understand that your messaging has to be better than that but there are segments within the party who just can't help themselves.

Deal with the poverty of opportunity in these towns which drove the Brexit vote in the first place or Labour is doomed.

I wonder if the Labour party is now so southern/metropolitan centric that it can not touch the truth about the iniquity between the North and South directly because it is too afraid of losing southern or city dwelling labour voters by developing effective policies to remove their institutional/structural advantage.

 

[Wolverine]

There is also the effect of LBC, talkradio, Daily Mail, the Sun, Daily Express and their popularity in increasing polarisation.
Which has led to the threats of woke/cancel culture being exacerbated into culture wars. I think a lot of that has gone more mainstream that people like to admit.
But people are still I believe malleable in terms of political allegiances. I still maintain that labour needs to move away from trying to shift their ideology according to polls and trying to create an identity, effectively communicating it, explaining what they'll do for people in tangible terms (jobs, social mobility, infrastructure, healthcare). Things that are universal.

Focus grouping shows that progressive policies are popular but opinions vary when people discover who's offering them so there is an image/credibility problem with no easy solution. Infighting isn't helping either.

 

[Zlatattack]

I agree its broken the party. I think that it is as much to do with the Labour Party's reaction to those Brexit voters as it is to do with the party's positions on Brexit. The Labour party has spent the four/five years between the referendum and this election calling them ignorant racists. The funny thing is they then expected Brexit voters to ignore that and vote Labour. You really have to be other level stupid to not understand that your messaging has to be better than that but there are segments within the party who just can't help themselves.

Deal with the poverty of opportunity in these towns which drove the Brexit vote in the first place or Labour is doomed.

I wonder if the Labour party is now so southern/metropolitan centric that it can not touch the truth about the iniquity between the North and South directly because it is too afraid of losing southern or city dwelling labour voters by developing effective policies to remove their institutional/structural advantage.

The labour party are pretty thick in my opinion. Loads of their policies would resonate will all sorts of people. For example, they want more social housing, most people agree thats a good idea. They just need to pander to the idiots a bit. Word the policy as "local houses for local people" and pledge to give council houses to local people as priority. That's probably already how the system works, and even if it it's a complete lie - who's going to know!?

Or take the borders for example. Declare "zero tolerance on illegal immigrants" - hello, they're already illegal. They're not voting for you, and your just as likely to do FA about them as anyone else us. What does a bit of rhetoric hurt. Steal the "points based immigration system" line, it's effectively what it's always been, apart from the EU.

Job prioritisation for local people - companies already have to prove that they can't find a suitable candidate in the UK before they can advertise abroad, nothing would change, but the perception would. You could tag it on with the return of technical colleges to get Britain making things again, or doing things (which is a genuinely good idea).

This is what the tories do - say what people want to hear.

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

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[Classical Mechanic]

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Can't listen to the what hes saying but many of the Tory candidates where I am (Oldham) are Muslims.

 

[Mr Pigeon]

The labour party are pretty thick in my opinion. Loads of their policies would resonate will all sorts of people. For example, they want more social housing, most people agree thats a good idea. They just need to pander to the idiots a bit. Word the policy as "local houses for local people" and pledge to give council houses to local people as priority. That's probably already how the system works, and even if it it's a complete lie - who's going to know!?

That would be a great solution, but I'm worried that people have been spoon fed the narrative of "things won't get better than they are now" for so long that they forget things used to be better. People have forgotten that we used to have public libraries, parks, reasonably sized classrooms and other council services that haven't been slowly stripped away under the guise of austerity. They'd probably shy away from this sort of spending and call it negligent, and how we can't afford it because we're a nation that must live within its means (which they'll say is due to the last labour government, benefit cheats and immigrants and nothing to do with Tory policies over the last decade and rampant media misinformation/profiteering from wealthy elites).

 

[RedSky]

Only in brexit Britain can the tories do something as disastrous as Brexit and somehow come out smelling like roses. Feck me.

It's so fecking depressing. I feel like Boris could slap people in the street and everyone would still vote Tories.

 

[0le]

Does anyone know where I can get a current list of the full results without having to share my postcode?

 

[Zlatattack]

Can't listen to the what hes saying but many of the Tory candidates where I am (Oldham) are Muslims.

Stop the video at 1.31 and see this...mildly nsfw screenshot

Spoiler

 

[Mr Pigeon]

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Stop the video at 1.31 and see this...mildly nsfw screenshot

Spoiler

Ouch!

 

[11101]

So instead they're now voting for the Tories who are famous for their down to heart, compassionate approach to the north, and speaking to working class people as peers.

They're spreading their votes around. Doesn't matter who they vote for though, it's not Labour anymore.

I don't like them after the road Blair and Brown sent the country down but a government needs effective opposition.

 

[Eugenius]

The labour party are pretty thick in my opinion. Loads of their policies would resonate will all sorts of people. For example, they want more social housing, most people agree thats a good idea. They just need to pander to the idiots a bit. Word the policy as "local houses for local people" and pledge to give council houses to local people as priority. That's probably already how the system works, and even if it it's a complete lie - who's going to know!?

Or take the borders for example. Declare "zero tolerance on illegal immigrants" - hello, they're already illegal. They're not voting for you, and your just as likely to do FA about them as anyone else us. What does a bit of rhetoric hurt. Steal the "points based immigration system" line, it's effectively what it's always been, apart from the EU.

Job prioritisation for local people - companies already have to prove that they can't find a suitable candidate in the UK before they can advertise abroad, nothing would change, but the perception would. You could tag it on with the return of technical colleges to get Britain making things again, or doing things (which is a genuinely good idea).

This is what the tories do - say what people want to hear.

The virtue-signalling liberal side of the left would decry this though.

 

[groovyalbert]

The labour party are pretty thick in my opinion. Loads of their policies would resonate will all sorts of people. For example, they want more social housing, most people agree thats a good idea. They just need to pander to the idiots a bit. Word the policy as "local houses for local people" and pledge to give council houses to local people as priority. That's probably already how the system works, and even if it it's a complete lie - who's going to know!?

Or take the borders for example. Declare "zero tolerance on illegal immigrants" - hello, they're already illegal. They're not voting for you, and your just as likely to do FA about them as anyone else us. What does a bit of rhetoric hurt. Steal the "points based immigration system" line, it's effectively what it's always been, apart from the EU.

Job prioritisation for local people - companies already have to prove that they can't find a suitable candidate in the UK before they can advertise abroad, nothing would change, but the perception would. You could tag it on with the return of technical colleges to get Britain making things again, or doing things (which is a genuinely good idea).

This is what the tories do - say what people want to hear.

This would probably have worked somewhat if this was a May-lead/pre-Covid and Brexit Tory government, but it's not.

An issue now is that, in a lot of ways, you're seeing the Tories take-up Labour policies, and the public spending since the pandemic has (rightfully) been unparalleled. It's hard to know what more a Labour party could promise without venturing into the areas that bewilder and put middle-of-the-road voters off.

 

[Ady87]

This would probably have worked somewhat if this was a May-lead/pre-Covid and Brexit Tory government, but it's not.

An issue now is that, in a lot of ways, you're seeing the Tories take-up Labour policies, and the public spending since the pandemic has (rightfully) been unparalleled. It's hard to know what more a Labour party could promise without venturing into the areas that bewilder and put middle-of-the-road voters off.

This is why I'm saying that on the whole, policies aren't as important these days especially in this post-Brexit world. Some of Labour's policies were popular and the Tories have encroached on them either through necessity or strategically but I think if many Tory voters are honest, this won't be why they're winning more new votes. There is nothing from an economic policy perspective that Labour can do to win back any voters of any type from the Tories, IMO. If Labour adopt and pivot to a bit of social conservatism, or at least pretend to too quickly, it won't hold any weight either.

We basically all need to go to the Winchester, have a pint and wait for this all to blow over.

 

[groovyalbert]

This is why I'm saying that on the whole, policies aren't as important these days especially in this post-Brexit world. Some of Labour's policies were popular and the Tories have encroached on them either through necessity or strategically but I think if many Tory voters are honest, this won't be why they're winning more new votes. There is nothing from an economic policy perspective that Labour can do to win back any voters of any type from the Tories, IMO. If Labour adopt and pivot to a bit of social conservatism, or at least pretend to too quickly, it won't hold any weight either.

We basically all need to go to the Winchester, have a pint and wait for this all to blow over.

The fact that you're arguing for this whilst people are still voting for the party that SHUT DOWN OUR PUBS is the real problem.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

Spot on, Labour has had years to sort out places like Hartlepool and others in the 'red wall', it wasn't interested!

So the Westminster Tory government cutting Labour Council budgets by 50% since 2010 until they struggle to function, now means the Tories get voted in locally. Crazy.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

There is also the effect of LBC, talkradio, Daily Mail, the Sun, Daily Express and their popularity in increasing polarisation.
Which has led to the threats of woke/cancel culture being exacerbated into culture wars. I think a lot of that has gone more mainstream that people like to admit.
But people are still I believe malleable in terms of political allegiances. I still maintain that labour needs to move away from trying to shift their ideology according to polls and trying to create an identity, effectively communicating it, explaining what they'll do for people in tangible terms (jobs, social mobility, infrastructure, healthcare). Things that are universal.

Focus grouping shows that progressive policies are popular but opinions vary when people discover who's offering them so there is an image/credibility problem with no easy solution. Infighting isn't helping either.

Spot on.

 

[marktan]

I think people underestimate the impact of Brexit as a catalyst of breaking through tribalism and allowing older staunch Labour voters who have drifted to the right as their circumstances became more comfortable to vote for a party they detested with their entire being 30+ years ago.

Where a lot of these people hated the Tories because of Thatcher and the war on the Unions and the working classes, they now hate the EU and liberalism which they believe has failed them as they sit in their £300k house they bought for £18k and moan about a younger generation who have it easier than they do.

Pretty much this. The majority of the population over 40 has no reason to vote Labour, they've seen their wealth grow under the conservatives so that's where they'll vote. 5-10% house price rises every year? What's not to like?

Combined with things like more money to Conservative run constituencies it's not hard to see why people vote conservative. It appeals to people's greed.

As the over 40s heavily outnumber the 18 to 40 year olds in numbers and voter turnout, we'll probably have another 10+ years of conservatives, before the younger lot can gain enough voter power to vote for a hopefully useful alternative (which labour currently is not). Who knows what the state of the country will be by then. Probably £400k average house prices and even larger wealth divide, resulting in a return to a feudal-like class system the Tories so crave.

The sad thing is that neither the Tories nor their average voter realise the damage such an increasing wealth divide will create in the long run on all aspects of society.

 

[Mr Pigeon]

So the Westminster Tory government cutting Labour Council budgets by 50% since 2010 until they struggle to function, now means the Tories get voted in locally. Crazy.

On the plus side the budgets might magically increase again.

 

[Sweet Square]

Worth a read

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[Pexbo]

Worth a read

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Falmouth Uni has grown massively in the last decade and its predominately an Art College. In addition to this the number of holiday homes in that area is growing exponentially so it’s no surprise that it’s flipped.

 

[11101]

The sad thing is that neither the Tories nor their average voter realise the damage such an increasing wealth divide will create in the long run on all aspects of society.

Makes no difference. Wealth inequality hasn't moved much over the last 20-30 years, the biggest spike was in the mid 2000s under a Labour government. People have begun to realise the parties are all the same so vote for the devil you already know.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

On the plus side the budgets might magically increase again.

True. The Jenrick effect.

If only Labour had some actual policies maybe people would know what they stood for.

 

[Smores]

Makes no difference. Wealth inequality hasn't moved much over the last 20-30 years, the biggest spike was in the mid 2000s under a Labour government. People have begun to realise the parties are all the same so vote for the devil you already know.

Claiming parties are all the same with this lot in charge is quite the bold claim.

 

[Maticmaker]

So the Westminster Tory government cutting Labour Council budgets by 50% since 2010 until they struggle to function, now means the Tories get voted in locally. Crazy.

Not really, budgets were cut all over the place, in Tory as well as Labour held Councils, its where the cuts actually fell that persuaded many that Labour had got hold of the wrong end of the stick; or perhaps they cut in areas that would reflect badly on the Central Government, to prove a point, maybe?
No the real awakening in 'red wall' areas was that for all the years Labour was in power, both locally and nationally very little was done to improve the economic climate in these areas. Yes, there were lots of Government schemes but when the money ran out the schemes collapsed, no real investment was made, but lots of it wasted to buy short term popularity. In red wall areas it was worse, Labour was so sure of the vote in these areas, they hardly made any effort at all.
Boris and the Tories have promised a 'leveling up' agenda, if they achieve half of this they will retain power in these areas, if they fail Labour has to be ready to step in... however its a long hard road, but as someone once said "A journey of a thousand miles starts with the first step".

 

[berbatrick]

Who are Labour supposed to represent?

The working class, many of whom live in towns and cities around the country that have suffered massive declines over the years. They care about what jobs are available to them and what their local town centre looks like. They're not bothered about renewable energy, gender equality, what our aid budget is, or how diverse our society is. They definitely don't like being told they're idiots because they don't care about those things, and especially not when it's coming from some Oxbridge graduate pretending to be like them. I don't think Blair and Brown were ever any different but at least they said what their voters wanted to hear.

I also hear a lot more friends and family commenting that they've had Labour councils for decades and nothing ever improves. Nobody ever noticed that before.

2017 GE:

So, they won every category of people who work for a living (and a few others who don't), and still fell short. Because they lost one group, who happen not to work for a living.

2019 GE (Con is 1st line, Lab is 2nd) - a catastrophic result in general:

Losses among the 1st 2 groups indeed, mirroring secular losses in every group, even students. But that's very clearly not why they lost the election.

In both cases, the Tory win is *entirely* down to retirees, with the rest of the groups coming out strong for Labour or roughly averaging to zero in 17 and 19 respectively.

 

[berbatrick]

The labour party are pretty thick in my opinion. Loads of their policies would resonate will all sorts of people. For example, they want more social housing, most people agree thats a good idea. They just need to pander to the idiots a bit. Word the policy as "local houses for local people" and pledge to give council houses to local people as priority. That's probably already how the system works, and even if it it's a complete lie - who's going to know!?

People who have just got Tory assistance to buy homes would not take kindly to increased social housing, it would reward the freeloaders and harm their investment/retirement. Here is the Tory PM spelling out the inverse case (pvt housing = Tory voters, social housing = Labour voters, so social housing must not be allowed):
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...e-labour-voters-nick-clegg-says-a7223796.html

 

[villain]

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[calodo2003]

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Is that a typical voting spread between Con & Lab for healthcare workers?

 

[Pexbo]

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masochist
/ˈmasəkɪst/

noun

1. a person who derives sexual gratification from their own pain or humiliation.
   "the roles of masochist and mistress"
   • (in general use) a person who enjoys an activity that appears to be painful or tedious.
     "what kind of masochist would take part in such an experiment?"

 

[Sweet Square]

masochist
/ˈmasəkɪst/

noun

1. a person who derives sexual gratification from their own pain or humiliation.
   "the roles of masochist and mistress"
   • (in general use) a person who enjoys an activity that appears to be painful or tedious.
     "what kind of masochist would take part in such an experiment?"

 

[11101]

2017 GE:

So, they won every category of people who work for a living (and a few others who don't), and still fell short. Because they lost one group, who happen not to work for a living.

2019 GE (Con is 1st line, Lab is 2nd) - a catastrophic result in general:

Losses among the 1st 2 groups indeed, mirroring secular losses in every group, even students. But that's very clearly not why they lost the election.

In both cases, the Tory win is *entirely* down to retirees, with the rest of the groups coming out strong for Labour or roughly averaging to zero in 17 and 19 respectively.

You know the working class is not simply those who have jobs, right?

 

[villain]

Is that a typical voting spread between Con & Lab for healthcare workers?

The tweet below it, in the 2019 election, for comparison.

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I don't think the above is a "typical" representation, because one of Corbyn's core policies was highlighting the NHS being sold off by the Tories.
But still, in no circumstance should the Tories be more favourable to NHS workers than Labour.

 

[berbatrick]

You know the working class is not simply those who have jobs, right?

Let's go back to your post.

They care about what jobs are available to them

 

[calodo2003]

The tweet below it, in the 2019 election, for comparison.

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I don't think the above is a "typical" representation, because one of Corbyn's core policies was highlighting the NHS being sold off by the Tories.
But still, in no circumstance should the Tories be more favourable to NHS workers than Labour.

I obviously didn’t look at the tweet thread.

Good christ, what a swing.

Why did this happen?

 

[villain]

masochist
/ˈmasəkɪst/

noun

1. a person who derives sexual gratification from their own pain or humiliation.
   "the roles of masochist and mistress"
   • (in general use) a person who enjoys an activity that appears to be painful or tedious.
     "what kind of masochist would take part in such an experiment?"

LVG meme would go great here

 

[berbatrick]

You know the working class is not simply those who have jobs, right?

To make a larger point, due to many historic reasons, there are large generational gaps in homeownership and wealth in the UK. Hence, the "working class" is (or, at least under Corbyn, was) divided quite sharply by age. A retiree with a private house, even a modest one, has very different material interests and concerns than somebody who works 40 hrs a week and rents.

 

[villain]

I obviously didn’t look at the tweet thread.

Good christ, what a swing.

Why did this happen?

Common sense is not common & British people love to suffer*


*I don't have a credible answer, nothing makes sense.

 

[Berbasbullet]

Common sense is not common & British people love to suffer*


*I don't have a credible answer, nothing makes sense.

My only guess is something to do with the vaccine?