SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

stepic

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Why are shoving things up your nose? Why are you walking through the park with a mask on? Why do you keep getting injections? I genuinely don't understand why you don't question anything.
i mean it’s pretty simple. Most decent human beings want to avoid catching a disease which can easily be spread to someone vulnerable. Or if you do catch the disease minimise the chances of going to hospital and taking a bed away from someone more vulnerable.

Unfortunately the world Is full of selfish people too.
 

Suv666

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Very amusing. I didn't say I was to scared to put things up my nose into my brain, I said I don't stick things up my nose into my brain. I used to probably when I was a toddler. They only reason you all happily oblige is because you are told to and so you do. It isn't necessary, but still you do it, for no reason. Saliva tests exist. It isn't necessary to stick something up your nose and that's why I don't do it. I don't go around with a "I'm hard, Covid don't scare me!" tough guy mentality, I go around with a "why are you all so scared?" bewildered mentality. Why are shoving things up your nose? Why are you walking through the park with a mask on? Why do you keep getting injections? I genuinely don't understand why you don't question anything.
Obvious bait.
My man is thirsty for attention
 

Droid_Repairs

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I've an anxious friend about to go for a jab today, they're planning on taking a low dose of Valium before turning up. Any medical reason not to do this? Cheers.
 

FortBoyard

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I've an anxious friend about to go for a jab today, they're planning on taking a low dose of Valium before turning up. Any medical reason not to do this? Cheers.
I wouldn't take medical information from an annonymous source on a forum, no matter how informed they appear.

Please tell your friend to mention to the vaccination clinic that they have taken a valium, they will deal with it accordingly. My expectation is it wouldn't be an issue, but I don't know for sure.
 

TheLiverBird

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I looked several weeks ago to see how many current hospital admissions there were in the

I can’t remember exactly how many weeks ago but Omnicron certainly wasn’t being mentioned then

anyway the number at that time was around 7,000 patients in hospital

with all the scaremongering and hype we are seeing in the news and from Number 10 about spike in cases……how many current hospital cases folks???……..yep, holding stead still at 7,600

Hospital admissions are the important figure to keep an eye on and they have largely been the same for months

all we are hearing about is case rises, and of course we are going to see case rises with more and more tests being done

seek and you shal find, but why does it matter with a good vaccine and booster rollout in this Country and stabilised hospital admissions???

just been reading about government advisors drawing up plans for a 2 week lockdown/circuit breaker after Christmas season…….why!!!!! More hype
 

owlo

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I've an anxious friend about to go for a jab today, they're planning on taking a low dose of Valium before turning up. Any medical reason not to do this? Cheers.
Not intrinsically, but medicating is generally not as effective as planning. Best to let them know in advance, and go at a quiet time fast in, fast out. Takes 5 minutes out of the car total. (They'll genreally let you wait round the back or in the car post dose if you explain)
 

owlo

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You can’t fix a totally fecked health service in less than two years. They have actually increased ICU capacity by 30%. The problem is the past 25 years of negligence by FFG.

apparently the biggest problem is a lack of doctors and nurses even if they wanted to add more beds. You can’t buy those short term, sadly.
I mean, China built several new hospitals in a year, but you're right about staff.

I don't begrudge him for doing it personally, but people like my bro shouldn't be able to qualify, do their 2 years and then immediately emigrate to Canada/Australia...... Either that, or they need paid more/treated better so they don't do it. Because I know a lot of doctors around our age (mid thirties) and none of them currently work for the NHS. One works in the UK for an Israeli biotech, the others are abroad.
 
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Neil Ferguson reported as saying omicron could result in 5000 daily deaths. Probably the best thing we’ve all heard and best sign that Omicron will actually be less fatal then previous variants.

But seriously this guy to me is just the opposite extreme of 5G blaming anti vaxxers. He’s also more dangerous because
every wildly exaggerated prediction that he makes undermines the severity of the pandemic and can turn people into doubters or even anti vaxxers.

5000 daily deaths. If Omicron was likely to do that at a rate of daily infection that’s realistic we’d already be seeing an increase in hospitalisations and deaths.
Ferguson’s an absolute weapon, he always grossly over exaggerates in his modelling and his predictions absolutely are dangerous.
On top of that he clearly doesn’t give a feck himself about following the advice so…
 
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You can’t fix a totally fecked health service in less than two years. They have actually increased ICU capacity by 30%. The problem is the past 25 years of negligence by FFG.

apparently the biggest problem is a lack of doctors and nurses even if they wanted to add more beds. You can’t buy those short term, sadly.
That summer long lockdown you had when it was crystal clear (I argued this at the time and was once again shot down from all sides) this thing was seasonal was a massive feck up to the tune of billions that should have been spent on the health service and not least by giving all healthcare workers a massive “pandemic pay rise”.
It amazes me that we’re where we are now and so many are giving their governments a free card for ridiculously expensive short term thinking like this.
 

Pogue Mahone

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That summer long lockdown you had when it was crystal clear (I argued this at the time and was once again shot down from all sides) this thing was seasonal was a massive feck up to the tune of billions that should have been spent on the health service and not least by giving all healthcare workers a massive “pandemic pay rise”.
It amazes me that we’re where we are now and so many are giving their governments a free card for ridiculously expensive short term thinking like this.
a) We didn’t have a summer long lockdown
b) It’s currently summer in South Africa
 

stw2022

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That Imperial College report that simply said there’s not enough evidence to determine whether omicron is more or less severe than previous waves being spun on Twitter as “IMPERIAL COLLEGE SAY OMICRON ISN’T LESS SEVERE!!!” has been irritating.

Presumably there should be a noticeable uptick in hospital admission over next ten days if severity is at least on point with delta
 

Pogue Mahone

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That Imperial College report that simply said there’s not enough evidence to determine whether omicron is more or less severe than previous waves being spun on Twitter as “IMPERIAL COLLEGE SAY OMICRON ISN’T LESS SEVERE!!!” has been irritating.

Presumably there should be a noticeable uptick in hospital admission over next ten days if severity is at least on point with delta
It’s worse than that. Their report shows that it’s less severe but because the average age skews young they’re saying you have to ignore that and assume it isn’t less severe.

Mind you, you can see why they want to play it down. The cases are doubling so quickly it could put 50% less people in hospital than delta at the same case numbers only to match the hospitalisations 3 days later (and double them 3 days after that, and so on)
 

King Eric 7

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Hospital admissions are the important figure to keep an eye on and they have largely been the same for months
It will be better to keep an eye on hospital figures for London rather than nationally as that is where the virus is much more widespread. The rest of the country will lag behind the capital for a short while. I checked yesterday and I think the London hospital figures have been increasing a bit lately. Will be interesting to see where they are in a week's time.
 
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a) We didn’t have a summer long lockdown
b) It’s currently summer in South Africa
a) fair enough, I was under the impression you had the hospitality sector and other areas of society closed for a large part of last year, and a good bit into the Summer.
So many countries, easy to lose track.
b) you arguing out of both sides of your mouth here Pogue :confused:
Something that doesn’t get mentioned much is that it’s summer in South Africa now. And there does seem to be more and more of a seasonal element to the virus. NZ could be saved by a decent summer or in deep shit if omicron doesn’t kick off down under for another few months (highly unlikely).
 
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LARulz

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Ferguson’s an absolute weapon, he always grossly over exaggerates in his modelling and his predictions absolutely are dangerous.
On top of that he clearly doesn’t give a feck himself about following the advice so…
I feel like there is something I am missing with him. He has been hated on all throughout the pandemic but still anything he says is headline news. Is he right or do we just want someone (extra) to hate?
 
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I feel like there is something I am missing with him. He has been hated on all throughout the pandemic but still anything he says is headline news. Is he right or do we just want someone (extra) to hate?
People didn’t need to listen to his none peer reviewed model back in March 2020 so it’s not really his fault, Anders Tegnell was instantly super critical of the model back in March 2020 as not lining up with the data from Italy and China.
But, he’s just modelling I guess. A big issue back in March 2020 was how influential that model became WorldWide before any peer review. So yeah, even I’m OTT harsh on the guy I guess.
 

Pexbo

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People didn’t need to listen to his none peer reviewed model back in March 2020 so it’s not really his fault, Anders Tegnell was instantly super critical of the model back in March 2020 as not lining up with the data from Italy and China.
But, he’s just modelling I guess. A big issue back in March 2020 was how influential that model became WorldWide before any peer review. So yeah, even I’m OTT harsh on the guy I guess.
 
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I’m not claiming they did :confused:

The March 2020 model did claim the UK could see 500,000 deaths without strong measures, which is almost 8% of the population and quite clearly massively over exaggerated; it also claimed that a “Swedish style model” would see 250,000 deaths. I mean, he said himself in an interview that..

Reflecting now on the 16 March report and its consequences, Ferguson told me when we spoke via Zoom on 27 July that the figure of 500,000 deaths was “never really going to happen”.
Which is what I remember Tegnell also claiming back in March 2020 when asked about the report.
 
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Dr. StrangeHate

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Sorry if this has been answered before but why is a third dose required. What does it offer that the first two doses don't?
 

jojojo

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I get the frustration everyone's feeling. We want to know the answers. The models are missing key data so they can't tell us much. They give scenarios and then the media headline writers pick the most extreme case and make it sound like a prediction. It's not a prediction, it's a what if - a particular set of assumptions is true.

The models currently show as worse case, what if the current R rate is maintained (it won't be), our current knowledge about the protective effects of the vaccine/booster and protection via past infection are true (they won't be) and it's about as dangerous as Delta (we don't think it is) what happens? The answer is a disaster.

It's also only one of the calculations in the model. It's not the one they think is the likeliest, it's not the optimistic, it's not even the one they describe as "reasonable worst case". It's the scary one, that headline writers lock onto, and that scares some people and makes other people laugh.

If the more extreme predictions are accurate we'll know from London next week, and from the whole country on/before New Year.

If the optimistic predictions are accurate, we'll have a bad month in January, but there will be little point in trying to stop it rolling through. If the pessimistic ones are accurate we'll be slamming the brakes on hard and trying to make the hospitalisations/deaths spread out over 3 months, rather than 3 weeks.
 

Dan_F

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I looked several weeks ago to see how many current hospital admissions there were in the

I can’t remember exactly how many weeks ago but Omnicron certainly wasn’t being mentioned then

anyway the number at that time was around 7,000 patients in hospital

with all the scaremongering and hype we are seeing in the news and from Number 10 about spike in cases……how many current hospital cases folks???……..yep, holding stead still at 7,600

Hospital admissions are the important figure to keep an eye on and they have largely been the same for months

all we are hearing about is case rises, and of course we are going to see case rises with more and more tests being done

seek and you shal find, but why does it matter with a good vaccine and booster rollout in this Country and stabilised hospital admissions???

just been reading about government advisors drawing up plans for a 2 week lockdown/circuit breaker after Christmas season…….why!!!!! More hype
I’m not saying this will happen but surely hospitalisations will take a few weeks on from now to increase. End of November was 40k a day, we’ve been at double that for five days now. To get an accurate read on hospitalisations it probably won’t be reflected until the new year?

Then you’ve got the added fact that everyone is likely to see older relatives around Christmas, so higher case numbers will just naturally mean higher risk than normal. And the threat of new variants forming with high caseloads. I don’t find it that hard too see why people would be worried.
 

jojojo

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I’m not saying this will happen but surely hospitalisations will take a few weeks on from now to increase. End of November was 40k a day, we’ve been at double that for five days now. To get an accurate read on hospitalisations it probably won’t be reflected until the new year?

Then you’ve got the added fact that everyone is likely to see older relatives around Christmas, so higher case numbers will just naturally mean higher risk than normal. And the threat of new variants forming with high caseloads. I don’t find it that hard too see why people would be worried.
Yep. We'll get an idea from London next week.

Broadly, hospital admissions show around 5-8 days after cases. Hospital totals about 3 days behind that, and that's when deaths start to be visible as well (in older groups, later with younger ones).
 

jojojo

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Sorry if this has been answered before but why is a third dose required. What does it offer that the first two doses don't?
The third dose triggers your body to make a fresh batch of antibodies. They'll hang around for a few months, and should be able to kill off attempted new infections quickly - ideally before the virus gets chance to spread.

The fact it's the third time your body has seen this infection annoys it, so it makes more antibodies and a broader cocktail of them. The immune system memory (the scientists study these T and B cells as well) gets triggered at the same time and prepares to make new recipes for the next time it happens.

The vaccine trained your body to be ready for the Wuhan virus, it's now got a head start to attack the variants. It was good at stopping Alpha and Delta after two doses, the third made it excellent again.

Now Omicron has shown up. We're expecting the freshly topped up circulating antibody mix to do a good job at stopping it and the memory cells to do an even better one at concocting new recipes to get rid of it before it gets severe.

Dose 2 was the, "I've told you before, just clear off" jab. What we hope dose 3 does is add the phrase, "and take your scummy mates with you."

With apologies to any doctors, virologists and immunologists etc who stumble across this...
 
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I get the frustration everyone's feeling. We want to know the answers. The models are missing key data so they can't tell us much. They give scenarios and then the media headline writers pick the most extreme case and make it sound like a prediction. It's not a prediction, it's a what if - a particular set of assumptions is true.

The models currently show as worse case, what if the current R rate is maintained (it won't be), our current knowledge about the protective effects of the vaccine/booster and protection via past infection are true (they won't be) and it's about as dangerous as Delta (we don't think it is) what happens? The answer is a disaster.

It's also only one of the calculations in the model. It's not the one they think is the likeliest, it's not the optimistic, it's not even the one they describe as "reasonable worst case". It's the scary one, that headline writers lock onto, and that scares some people and makes other people laugh.

If the more extreme predictions are accurate we'll know from London next week, and from the whole country on/before New Year.

If the optimistic predictions are accurate, we'll have a bad month in January, but there will be little point in trying to stop it rolling through. If the pessimistic ones are accurate we'll be slamming the brakes on hard and trying to make the hospitalisations/deaths spread out over 3 months, rather than 3 weeks.
That’s a really good post on the current situation.
 

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COVID has killed 150k people in the U.K. - that’s with vaccines, treatments and lockdowns to stop the NHS completely collapsing. Anyone want to tell me why a model saying 500k deaths at the start had we just let it rip without vaccines and the treatments we now have which would have completely collapsed the NHS was wildly exaggerated?
 

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I’m not claiming they did :confused:

The March 2020 model did claim the UK could see 500,000 deaths without strong measures, which is almost 8% of the population and quite clearly massively over exaggerated. I mean, he said himself in an interview that..



Which is what I remember Tegnell also claiming back in March 2020 when asked about the report.
it's more like 0.8%

500k without strong measures doesn't seem that ridiculous considering we're at 150k now, with all the lockdowns, a much earlier vaccine roll-out than expected, and still not over the virus
 

owlo

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@jojojo did you see my question wrt past sars-cov1 infection + vaccine vs omicron ? Or no data yet?
 

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Hard lockdown incoming tonight in the Netherlands. There goes my push to go to the gym 5 times a week until I look like Thor :(
 

jojojo

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COVID has killed 150k people in the U.K. - that’s with vaccines, treatments and lockdowns to stop the NHS completely collapsing. Anyone want to tell me why a model saying 500k deaths at the start had we just let it rip without vaccines and the treatments we now have which would have completely collapsed the NHS was wildly exaggerated?
It wasn't exaggerated. It was a warning about what would happen, and happen shockingly fast if we did nothing.
 

fergieisold

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it's more like 0.8%

500k without strong measures doesn't seem that ridiculous considering we're at 150k now, with all the lockdowns, a much earlier vaccine roll-out than expected, and still not over the virus
The only caveat I'd point out is that I've still not seen a proper response from government or health officials about how a covid death is counted. If they really are reporting on people dying within 28 days of a positive test then you can knock that 150k down significantly.

But yeh...500k doesn't seem that wild if we'd just let it rip.
 

golden_blunder

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I question everything.

The reason I'm concerned is 5 million (and likely far far more) excess deaths (even with flu deaths way down) with more to come until we vaccinate/boost the world. The reason I'd get tested when neccesary and wear a mask when distancing isn't possible and get vaxxed and then boostered is that it is the sensible and moral thing to do based on the evidence and best medical advice.
Too late it is. Waste your words you do. Dark said Yoda has joined
 

golden_blunder

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I looked several weeks ago to see how many current hospital admissions there were in the

I can’t remember exactly how many weeks ago but Omnicron certainly wasn’t being mentioned then

anyway the number at that time was around 7,000 patients in hospital

with all the scaremongering and hype we are seeing in the news and from Number 10 about spike in cases……how many current hospital cases folks???……..yep, holding stead still at 7,600

Hospital admissions are the important figure to keep an eye on and they have largely been the same for months

all we are hearing about is case rises, and of course we are going to see case rises with more and more tests being done

seek and you shal find, but why does it matter with a good vaccine and booster rollout in this Country and stabilised hospital admissions???

just been reading about government advisors drawing up plans for a 2 week lockdown/circuit breaker after Christmas season…….why!!!!! More hype
Because logically the more it spreads the more will end up hospitalised. In a health service which is already straining
 

decorativeed

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Hard lockdown incoming tonight in the Netherlands. There goes my push to go to the gym 5 times a week until I look like Thor :(
I've just been looking to attain a Thor style body naturally through my much reduced physical activity this last two years. I'm almost up to his level now and I reckon I can give it a good push to match his physique over Christmas.
 

GDaly95

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Am I right in assuming there is unequivocal evidence that being vaccinated means you're less likely to spread the virus?

Because otherwise why would we be restricting unvaccinated people from going certain places.

I have no agenda here, its just a really basic and fundamental question that I've realised I haven't observed the answer to yet.
 

jojojo

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@jojojo did you see my question wrt past sars-cov1 infection + vaccine vs omicron ? Or no data yet?
I don't think anyone has that data (even if some vaccine groups might look at neutralisation titres in the future) - I've certainly seen nothing published. We're still waiting for data on the more common scenarios.

From a real world epidemiology perspective people who had SARS and who we know haven't had a covid vaccine (or covid infection) but who are now living in high Omicron areas will be hard to find.
 

owlo

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I don't think anyone has that data (even if some vaccine groups might look at neutralisation titres in the future) - I've certainly seen nothing published. We're still waiting for data on the more common scenarios.

From a real world epidemiology perspective people who had SARS and who we know haven't had a covid vaccine (or covid infection) but who are now living in high Omicron areas will be hard to find.
Unsurprising though a little disappointing. I found it really interesting that SARS+ Single mRNA was so effective vs covid and hoped some research may be developing on that front.
 

jojojo

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Am I right in assuming there is unequivocal evidence that being vaccinated means you're less likely to spread the virus?

Because otherwise why would we be restricting unvaccinated people from going certain places.

I have no agenda here, its just a really basic and fundamental question that I've realised I haven't observed the answer to yet.
Yep. They're less likely to be infected and less likely to pass it on. The calculations will need to get redone for Omicron, and that will take weeks, but it's not an odd assumption.

Mind you, I'd still advise them to take a LFT before going to an event, visiting vulnerable family etc. Because eh, why not?
 

GDaly95

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Yep. They're less likely to be infected and less likely to pass it on. The calculations will need to get redone for Omicron, and that will take weeks, but it's not an odd assumption.

Mind you, I'd still advise them to take a LFT before going to an event, visiting vulnerable family etc. Because eh, why not?
Thank you!