SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Vaccination has been shown to neutralise the virus in a significant number of vaccinated people, but not all. So if those people have avoided infection completely, it stands to reason that they can't spread it. So the vaccines are providing a reduction in transmission via that effect in some recipients.
I’d love to know whatever happened to the affluent, like-minded guy? Did he ever catch it?
Sorry, meant to post 0.8%, obviously not 8%.
And 510,000 was not even for the almost 2 years to date, it was by Spring 2020 ffs. And with a “Swedish style response”, the model predicted 250,000 deaths by Spring.
So yes it was pretty ridiculous and grossly overestimated.
And yet even if you stretch the date out to December 2021 on those possible death tolls, the numbers are still in favor of taking mitigation measures.Sorry, meant to post 0.8%, obviously not 8%.
And 510,000 was not even for the almost 2 years to date, it was by Spring 2020 ffs.
So yes it was pretty ridiculous and grossly overestimated.
Well of course you take mitigation measures.
The biggest problem with the model was the gross overestimation of mitigation vs lockdown. Plenty of States have shown that to be a vast exaggeration, and ignoring the seasonal aspects that we see with all upper respiratory viruses.
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Nope. Just pointing out the ridiculousness of you implying it’s ok to take your eye of the ball re covid in summer when South Africa is going through an explosion of cases. Right now. In summer.a) fair enough, I was under the impression you had the hospitality sector and other areas of society closed for a large part of last year, and a good bit into the Summer.
So many countries, easy to lose track.
b) you arguing out of both sides of your mouth here Pogue
All the experts agree this will end up as a seasonal virus. Most of them predicted it would when the pandemic started. But it can take years for a novel virus like this to settle into seasonal endemicity. We’re still a long way short of that now. Summer surges are still very much a thing.
are you sure this chart is directly from source?Sorry, meant to post 0.8%, obviously not 8%.
And 510,000 was not even for the almost 2 years to date, it was by Spring 2020 ffs. And with a “Swedish style response”, the model predicted 250,000 deaths by Spring.
So yes it was pretty ridiculous and grossly overestimated.
I don't think a data analyst would present data like this, it makes no sense to put a death toll at the peak of the bell curve
you'd present your numbers for the entire pandemic surely?
The source is right there under the x axis.
I know it states that, but what I'm suggesting is this has been edited because it looks wonky
You’re getting hung up on worst case scenarios. All these models have “optimistic” and “pessimistic” ranges of outcomes. It’s the pessimistic numbers that make headlines when the experts are asked “how bad could this get”?I’m not claiming they did
The March 2020 model did claim the UK could see 500,000 deaths without strong measures, which is almost 8% of the population and quite clearly massively over exaggerated; it also claimed that a “Swedish style model” would see 250,000 deaths. I mean, he said himself in an interview that..
Which is what I remember Tegnell also claiming back in March 2020 when asked about the report.
Him disappearing straight after that was so weird.The chart you've shown indicates the modelled outcomes with no mitigation measures. It's in the title. If you're criticising it for not accurately taking into account the mitigation measures, then you're not really understanding what the model was designed to do.
I've just been looking to attain a Thor style body naturally through my much reduced physical activity this last two years. I'm almost up to his level now and I reckon I can give it a good push to match his physique over Christmas.
It was early days in Covid, he should come back, admit he was wrong and post again
@jojojo just made a much better post than yours and stated exactly that, to which I replied that it was a great post.
It was in fact the majority on here and policy makers that got too hung up on the quite frankly absurd worst case scenario.
You haven’t followed the conversation, I’d said multiple times that Imperial predicted 250,000 deaths by Summer 2020 with a Swedish style mitigation strategy. 500,000 was the “let it rip” prediction.
Let’s remember Ferguson also said the following:
I mean, what the funk was Neil smoking when he thought lockdown countries wouldn’t find it hard to stop second waves??
@Regulus Arcturus Black
I dug out the report
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-03-16-COVID19-Report-9.pdf
as you can see the chart is different, it's predicting 510,000 (worst case scenario) for entire pandemic (not for spring 2020)
edit: the modelling for all scenarios actually looks pretty good in retrospect, when you consider how difficult it is to predict how things play out
Some rumours on Twitter that a UK national lockdown could be announced today? Surely bullshit, right?
The only one getting “hung up” on these models seems to be you. Everyone else seems to understand they are, at best, crude predictions of a range of outcomes.
Big decisions are constantly being made based on imperfect data. The only people I’ve heard make any predictions with absolute certainty are frauds, grifters or back seat scientists who don’t understand the nuance and uncertainties involved.
It will be bullshit but we absolutely need a lock down. There’s almost certainly one coming after Xmas though.
Yes I'm aware you've repeatedly mischaracterised the information to suit your agenda. I'm just pointing out in this specific instance how obvious your misrepresentation of the data is. It's in the title.
i hope they can wait one more day i have a date tonight
I doubt there’s a full lockdown coming today - Drakeford only announced new measures for Wales yesterday evening which was nightclubs closing after Boxing Day.
The same stuff the Swedish experts were smoking who predicted herd immunity would end the pandemic long before now? Meanwhile, in Sweden…
Or perhaps making those sort of long term predictions is incredibly difficult and even scientists who understand this stuff way better than any of us have always found it hard to accurately predict the future of the pandemic?
After Christmas I can see the logic, deal with the after effects of meet-ups, parties etc
Lockdown for Christmas won’t happen because the people are so fcuked off now they won’t listen. January is a crappy month, people have no money and more likely to stay in.
my only fear is something that I read, January is statistically the worst for suicide
“we assume that 50% of those in critical care will die”… kin ell.
It’s worse than I thought.
The chart actually suggests that the epidemic would be over after those 500,000 deaths so yes it is saying by spring 2020, and that somehow magically that’d be the end of it. I guess they’re making the same stupid mistake that Pogue just touched upon as the Swedish experts and thinking herd immunity would kick in and rid us of it.
I still feel like after all this time the majority of the population refuse to accept reality that this virus will overwhelm the health system if it goes unchecked. All people care about is their own little worlds and still refuse to see the bigger picture. The game has changed and right now even with vaccination if it’s allowed to run riot as they seem so keen to have happen it’ll cripple the health system in no time at all.
People need to start accepting that this is our reality now.
People need to start accepting that this is our reality now.
Absolutely, they were ridiculously way off, also laughable.
You are barking up the wrong tree again if you think that my position is that the Swedish experts are infallible, they clearly aren’t they’ve got, like many countries some stuff right some stuff laughably wrong.
So why not ease off on our criticism of people who are trying to predict the unpredictable?
I do agree that governments and their expert advisers (almost) everywhere have erred on the side of caution. And that’s been a pain to live through. I can understand why though. Everyone is shitting themselves over what happened in Italy and India and doesn’t want the same to happen in their country, on their watch.
just glossing over the fact you completely misrepresented the data then?
How bout that
You're back in the UK? Where are you taking her?
You know that that it's still the case that most people admitted to a critical care unit with covid will die, don't you?
yeah back for Christmas, going to the Ivy in Kensington
Wouldn't be surprised if he rocks up on TV tonight, it will be a trailer for what's to come post Christmas.
just saw your edit sorry
it's not saying that man come on now, this is ridiculous
in the let it rip scenario it would be over a lot sooner
but yes people make mistakes in complex models
Ah nice, I like the Ivy, always does amazing desserts. Good luck!
Pubs, cinemas and restaurants are closed at 8pm now in Ireland. Feels like we've been in constant restrictions for 2 years now and everybody is fed up. One of the most vaccinated countries in the world yet we're also one of the most restricted with our government making absolutely shambolic decisions that make very little sense.