They're posturing but they're not turning down 4.5 - 5bn. They're not stupid.
Club Sale | It’s done!
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) was joined by comedian Ali Woods to look back at the best and worst moments of a rollercoaster season with the annual United Hour Awards.
Has Ten Hag been sacked yet? We're not sure and we hope not, but it's looking more likely as the days pass.
Who should replace him and why is it taking so long to make a decision?
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There was never any briefings that ruled out minority investment though - plenty of the briefings actually explicitly mention it as a possible outcome. I honestly can't see a case for market manipulation because they've been clear from the outset that they'd welcome minority investment bids as well as full sale ones. I don't see how they wouldn't be on safe ground legally to accept a minority bid when they've been transparent in asking for both types of bids.
It isn't really their fault that others have mishandled their understanding of the whole process.
Is the Qatari royal buying United?
Having thought about it, this is a good point and comforting in a way (I hope!)
The Glazers would know it would be pretty toxic as it is if they decided to stay but to then put season ticket prices up for the first time in 11 years would just be asking for trouble. You are probably right in that it may signify they are on their way out. Hope so!
Has Miguel Delaney responded to the Evgeny Lebedev charges of hypocrisy btw?
It really is a check mate riposte.
It really is a check mate riposte.
Not only that, the news of them staying would probably send the stock price plummeting to below the November levels which would be a drop of over 50%. The markets will already be aware of how shite the Glazers have run the company so far, there will be zero confidence in stock investors having any hope in them doing any better going forward.
Let me tell you all what's really going on.
The original press release stated that the Glazers are exploring strategic alternatives, including but not limited to the full sale of the club. The reality is that this is a play to give the Glazers exit liquidity to an oil money owner. They know that they have no idea how to manage the footballing side of things and stand to make a lot of cash in what is otherwise a very difficult market for M&A. Why wouldn't they want to sell at this point? The language about strategic alternatives was to give the board maximum flexibility, while also telling the markets that they don't HAVE to sell if they don't want to - negotiating leverage.
This means that, if the Glazers receive an absolutely silly bid for a minority stake in the club from someone like Elliott, then, yeah, they'll consider it. But there is absolutely no chance that offer will be able to best a fully motivated oil money owner (Qatar) that wants full ownership.
Why are the Glazers telling bidders to stop making public statements? Again, it's about negotiating leverage. The Glazers don't want to end up in a place where the fan base falls in love with Qatar and basically decides to revolt against any other ownership - whether current (Glazers) or another bidder (Ineos, etc.). It's much easier to negotiate the Stock Purchase Agreement with Qatar if the Glazers can say: "well, if you don't like this provision, then maybe we'll get it from Ineos, or maybe we don't even have to sell the club at all, so you figure out how important it is for you to win this bid", as opposed to knowing that, in the fans' mind, any option other than Qatar is co pletely unacceptable going forward - which gives leverage to Qatar in these negotiations.
TL; DR - calm down. This is all most likely negotiating/posturing.
The original press release stated that the Glazers are exploring strategic alternatives, including but not limited to the full sale of the club. The reality is that this is a play to give the Glazers exit liquidity to an oil money owner. They know that they have no idea how to manage the footballing side of things and stand to make a lot of cash in what is otherwise a very difficult market for M&A. Why wouldn't they want to sell at this point? The language about strategic alternatives was to give the board maximum flexibility, while also telling the markets that they don't HAVE to sell if they don't want to - negotiating leverage.
This means that, if the Glazers receive an absolutely silly bid for a minority stake in the club from someone like Elliott, then, yeah, they'll consider it. But there is absolutely no chance that offer will be able to best a fully motivated oil money owner (Qatar) that wants full ownership.
Why are the Glazers telling bidders to stop making public statements? Again, it's about negotiating leverage. The Glazers don't want to end up in a place where the fan base falls in love with Qatar and basically decides to revolt against any other ownership - whether current (Glazers) or another bidder (Ineos, etc.). It's much easier to negotiate the Stock Purchase Agreement with Qatar if the Glazers can say: "well, if you don't like this provision, then maybe we'll get it from Ineos, or maybe we don't even have to sell the club at all, so you figure out how important it is for you to win this bid", as opposed to knowing that, in the fans' mind, any option other than Qatar is co pletely unacceptable going forward - which gives leverage to Qatar in these negotiations.
TL; DR - calm down. This is all most likely negotiating/posturing.
Thanks Avram.
I've tried to mention this a few times but people just don't want to hear/read it.
Economically, it doesn't make sense for the club if the Glazers stayed but they just dgaf.
Also, when Sky ambushed Avram when he was going in for some kind of a dinner (Thanksgiving I think) to ask him about the leak and possible sale, he was at great pains to emphasise that it was a process that could go either way.
So, basically, they've got their arses covered in case they find a fool to give the money to raise the company's price by another cool billion or two with a new stadium.
This is without considering even the slim possibility of the Super League coming back and them making a total killing.
I still think the Qataris will make an offer they cannot refuse but I would not remove the Glazers' stubbornness out of the equation just yet.
I’ve seen a few so called ITKs on twitter suggesting the deal with Qatar is done and Manchester United are 100% Qatari already. I just presume it’s posturing, especially since 100% of the club isn’t available at this point.
Yeah, you would think that if the Qataris fail to acquire the club now it would be a huge embarrassment for them having gone public with their bid.
Going public was a very significant moment for this reason.
Yeah its done. they are arguing or negotiating (a more refined term) for the last 5%.
Glad to help!
You sound like you know more than I do so I'll do what I do at work; nod my head and say "exactly!"
Those people are simply lying. Probably for notoriety, possibly because they are bored children on half-term week. Liars one and all, though.
People are just getting fooled by Ogden and his doom speech every night.
There’s not a chance in hell the Glazers go this far to ask for bids to sell the club if it’s not actually going to happen.
Do you think these rich business men are going to entertain something like this if it wasn’t real? if they backed out now they’d be the laughing stock of wall street.
it’s happening. They’re obviously haggling for as much as they can get, I suspect it’ll end up with Qatar as they’ll stretch the extra mile.
There’s not a chance in hell the Glazers go this far to ask for bids to sell the club if it’s not actually going to happen.
Do you think these rich business men are going to entertain something like this if it wasn’t real? if they backed out now they’d be the laughing stock of wall street.
it’s happening. They’re obviously haggling for as much as they can get, I suspect it’ll end up with Qatar as they’ll stretch the extra mile.
I'm American, and agree we'd be facked. Worst outcome by far.
If the American fund take over with the Glazers staying then we’re completely done.
Glazers don't have the means to manage a lesser debt so how is taking an even more burdensome debt supposed to work out? This Elliot group are either idiots or have a genius plan to make money off of the Glazers defaulting.
It's gonna be Elliot with the money suckers staying on, isn't it? We are so fecked if that happens.
It is a big factor and an important one because right now the “valuation” of Utd based on the stock market price is currently the highest it’s ever been since it floated. It’s currently around $26 dollars which it has only been there once before in 2018.
It was only July last year that the stock price had dropped to its lowest ever to $10 which was lower than the price it was at IPO initial offering when Utd floated.
So the truth is there has never been a better time than now for the Glazers to sell than there has been since they took over. We know the Glazers are greedy but I’m certain they aren’t stupid either. Yes they could gamble and hope the value increases further down the line and they get even more but that’s a risky exit strategy in my opinion.
If they do declare they will be staying in the coming days/weeks, I can genuinely see the share price drop beyond the $10 it hit last year. Confidence in the stock would be shot with the Glazers track record of running the club. It would effectively more than half the valuation of the club at that point and make it very difficult to get anywhere near the price they are looking for.
The only reason the stock price has more than doubled since November is because the expectation of the sale of the club has already been priced in. It shows the market has confidence in better times for the stock once it leaves Glazers hands. If it transpires the Glazers will be staying, that confidence will rapidly convert to fear.
I’m not convinced a plan of getting financial backing with Glazers remaining will do anything to prevent that crash.
If anything, both offers on the table are great considering they are higher than the inflated valuation which has the price pump already factored in.
I genuinely believe the Qatar bid will ultimately prevail simply because they will put an unmatched offer on the table no matter what it takes. Even if it means £500m more than the current bid. They are probably looking at an expenditure of around £10bn when factoring in the additional spend that will be required. I don’t see them walking away because of a 0.5-1 billion variance in valuations. Their determination to buy a premier league, and Utd at that will mean the money will be no object in my view.
The glazers obviously need bidders to believe they are also in a position to decline to sell.
They want improved offers in the next round of bidding, the first round was just to establish interested parties with the means and give them access to the financial deep dive.
£4.5bn opening offer will probably end up anywhere up to £5.5bn
They want improved offers in the next round of bidding, the first round was just to establish interested parties with the means and give them access to the financial deep dive.
£4.5bn opening offer will probably end up anywhere up to £5.5bn
I suspect the Qataris have some plan to recover some of the money back -- a bunch of United-themed development in Qatar -- without taking out money from the United books.
Wait flip it around. I thought class A had voting rights and class B had none and class B were listed on the exchange.
I think / hope all the shares with voting rights will be bought out.
Beause we've suffered for years with debt and the only option (we know of) that doesn't include debt is the Qatari one.
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I'm sure this knob-end has the inside scoop on Qatar's plans
The glazer. Business wise is making a sound investment.
1bn purchase becomes 5bn in just a matter of 15 years. Not using a penny of their own money.
Great businessman
sorry to be pedantic but they put around 300m in
not that it makes much difference to how great a business deal it was
Unless they are still hoping for the superleague windfall.
I think that’s what ETH’s preference would be. I think ETH would work his magic with promising talents and not really desire superstars. We all know ETH wants hard working and high pressing forwards. It’s normally difficult to get that kind of work rate from super star egos.
Qatar PR team knows what to leak. PSG is being used as a metric to judge them so all these snippets of “significant but not crazy”.
I'm 60 and in total agreement with this (unless there are other bids we don't yet know about).
This is a different group to the one running PSG. I do expect them to run the club differently and I think they will have looked at how City have developed the youth and the football side of the club via Brian Marwood and taken note.
That guy practically outed himself the other day being in direct contact with the qataris.
The biggest critisms they get apart from the sport washing stuff is that they have run PSG like a circus. They've seen the comments about that and are now using their mouth pieces to counter it.
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I'm also an American and work for a hedge fund and I too agree that we would be facked.
Same here -- there seems to be a sandwich. The older fans are pragmatic about the direction esp when we have a longitudinal perspective. The Gen Zs don't care. It's the folks in the middle that are in an uproar.
I've read a lot of your posts and your analysis on the structure of football clubs and backroom politics is genuinely insightful. So it would be good to know the reasons why you think it would be any different here?
I'm happy to admit I am highly skeptical they would run us any differently to PSG. The Abu Dhabi lot had to turn City from a mid-table club to a top one. They've made them a household name.
The qataris don't have the luxury of turning us into a top team because we are already there (despite our recent struggles). They have to stamp their brand on us somehow.
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