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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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Ady87

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Guy on Newsnight just now: "we're fed up with people saying we don't know what we voted for, with saying we're racist. We're not racist. We do know what we voted for. We voted to leave Europe" ...okkkk but why?
This makes up the overwhelming number of comments I read online from Leave voters, to the point where I've completely given up engaging with anyone over it. I'm just looking for another layer of thought or reasoning and I don't get it outside of this forum. Even then the well thought through stuff is few and far between!
 

VeevaVee

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This makes up the overwhelming number of comments I read online from Leave voters, to the point where I've completely given up engaging with anyone over it. I'm just looking for another layer of thought or reasoning and I don't get it outside of this forum. Even then the well thought through stuff is few and far between!
It just seems to almost always come down to moronic nationalism and/or stubbornly sticking it to everyone else for some reason, and they're either kidding themselves that it's not, too dumb to realise, or proud of it. It's so strange, and it's scary that we're having to, or at least expected to accept it as if it's a sensible reasoning and anyone who is angry about all this happening because of them is out of order.
 

Maticmaker

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Reads like wishful thinking to me. Why would the EU be freer to make concessions than they are now? It’d be in the interests of both sides to make a deal but the EUs leverage would be even greater. Imagine the UK negotiating with emptying shelves, huge queues at Dover, a possible run on the pound, massive politicial pressure... and much of the EU keen for Britain to learn some lessons about fecking with an economic superpower.
Because they would be dealing with a third country whom many of the states within the EU wish to have access to its markets in the same way the UK wants access with other EU states; issues around the four freedoms will be able to be negotiated freely as they have with other third countries, and would not be a breach of internal EU rules, because the UK will no longer be internal, in other words, every thing is possible.

I'm afraid the project fear aspect has been done to death, yes there will be some disruption, but it cuts both ways and if all the politicians are to be believed (in the EU and UK) then contingencies for a no deal scenario are well underway. We have other ports besides Dover, so called stockpiling will alleviate any empty shelves aspects , runs on the pound are nothing new they ebb and flow, and of course political pressure, but it cannot be much worse than now and will be just as intense in the other EU states, especially those who are standing to lose very large and important markets, Ireland for one will be hard hit!

Unfortunately it has been an underlying fact since the 23rd June 2016 that after that result the outcome would always be either a revoking of A50 (should have happened 29th March 2019) or a No deal outcome, which will be the default position on 31st October 2019, nothing else passes muster!
 

FlawlessThaw

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John Cleese reiterating his love for Brexit whilst having a dig at London, as he prepares to move to the Carribean for tax purposes.
 

Pogue Mahone

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John Cleese reiterating his love for Brexit whilst having a dig at London, as he prepares to move to the Carribean for tax purposes.
He says that London is “not really an English city” like it’s a bad thing. What are these wonderful English cities that London should aspire to be a bit more like?
 

Abizzz

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He says that London is “not really an English city” like it’s a bad thing....
Or as if there was such a thing as a "English city" that one would be just as likely to find in Cornwall as on the Tyne.

What he means is that none of the service personal serving him speaks English as their first language. At least that was my observation (opposed to, say, Scarborough).
 

Maticmaker

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He says that London is “not really an English city” like it’s a bad thing. What are these wonderful English cities that London should aspire to be a bit more like?
I suppose he means its full of 'foreigners'; remember Snows comments about "cannot remembering seeing so many white faces..."?
 

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A government that coerces the electorate to vote with them through empty threats of taking their hard earned money or worse is far more dangerous than one who promise rainbows and puppy dogs tails. Firstly because the latter is easily disproved through a small amount of research and secondly because the electorate hear tales of a fairytale land at every election; whether that be the golden land of nationalisation, tax & spend politics on one side or the golden land of deregulation, low taxes and free markets on the other.

Plus your argument essentially says you should always vote for the status quo. I'd say anyone voting for Corbyn, Abbott, McDonnell and Thornberry would be voting for a dangerously inadequate government and are objectively economically (as well as on security) braindead irrespective of your political leanings.

Given the decent economic situation the country is currently in (ignoring Brexit) would you agree then that anyone voting Labour is inexcusable?
The country is only in a decent position for those doing well economically. A lot of people who've been hit hard by austerity haven't recovered despite economic improvements and rightfully argue that they were punished for the errors of rich bankers. The argument that their arguments are based on fairytales are largely bollocks anyway - governments find money when they want to spend it and I'd much rather they actually spent it on people to reduce inequality instead of bribing other parties like May did.

Along similar lines a lot of younger people have supported Labour because they see rising house prices and reducing opportunities for employment and get annoyed that they're being told it's somehow all their fault after older generations largely fecked them over economically. The current settlement of capitalism just isn't working for a lot of them.

I have a lot of issues with Corbyn, primarily relating to his stance on Brexit and a lot of the dodgy associations he's had over the years, but there's a lot he's right on and there are reasons a lot of people want him in power. What do the Tories offer anyone under the age of 65?
 

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John Cleese reiterating his love for Brexit whilst having a dig at London, as he prepares to move to the Carribean for tax purposes.
There's something really insidious about this sort of nonsense - there's a lot of issues with how London dominates the UK economy to a ridiculous extent but when people say it's not really British what they tend to mean is they don't like most of the immigrants there.
 

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John Cleese reiterating his love for Brexit whilst having a dig at London, as he prepares to move to the Carribean for tax purposes.
Oh God, not Cleese. That's just depressing. I really didn't think he'd think this way given some of his previous tirades against the use of Social Justice Warrior, etc.
 

Pogue Mahone

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I suppose he means its full of 'foreigners'; remember Snows comments about "cannot remembering seeing so many white faces..."?
I think that's exactly what he means. So just like every other modern cosmopolitan city.

This whole nostalgia thing is actually quite dangerous. People wanting the sort of change you could only implement with a time machine. When the electorate start demanding things that no political party could ever reasonably promise to deliver, you end up with bullshit artists like like Trump and Johnson coming into power.
 

Kinsella

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I'm not English and I haven't been in London for a long time but I've heard a number of people coming out with similar sentiments to Cleese, most of whom have now left the city.

There was a documentary about it on the BBC a number of years ago (I can't remember the title) and I found it both sad and a possible portent of things to come. You could see a lot of the Brexit stirrings in it in other words.
 

RedSky

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I haven't been in London for a long time but I've heard a number of people coming out with similar sentiments to Cleese, most of whom have now left the city.
I haven't ever really noticed. I just go to London and get pissed off with how busy the tube is.

I don't even understand the issues with a multi cultural city, I think its a good thing for society myself.
 

Fingeredmouse

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I'm not English and I haven't been in London for a long time but I've heard a number of people coming out with similar sentiments to Cleese, most of whom have now left the city.

There was a documentary about it on the BBC a number of years ago (I can't remember the title) and I found it both sad and a possible portent of things to come. You could see a lot of the Brexit stirrings in it in other words.
London has always been multicultural and is an international hub. It was one of the reasons I loved living there and that was almost two decades ago now. London is in England, but it belongs to the World too, just like Paris or New York, etc, etc.
This is to be celebrated.
I'm not even sure what "English" feels like. There is little commonality between, say, Warrington or Ascot or Taunton as a random set of examples. All are English.
I never understand this kind of national identity position however, so I'm not best placed to comment.
 

Boycott

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Why is it British people going to Spain to live are referred to as expats and not immigrants?
 

0le

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I haven't ever really noticed. I just go to London and get pissed off with how busy the tube is.

I don't even understand the issues with a multi cultural city, I think its a good thing for society myself.
There are a small number of issues. One is that the cultures tend to be very segregated. Tourists and visitors won't notice this because they tend to only visit central London, but if you go to some parts in Greater London, its very noticeable. As a result, there seems to be a lack of effort to integrate, socially, between the communities. Polish people will stick with other polish, almost religiously. Same with Chinese people. Same with English people. However, it has improved in some areas over time.

Another issue is just purely based on numbers. The infrastructure is crumbling to pieces. The city has improved its railways but they remain crowded, the roads are poor (holes in the roads are common). The NHS and police are also particularly struggling in London (which is why gang related crime is an issue here) and housing prices are ridiculously high anywhere in London. This is partly due to the number of people moving to London and also an aging population, but the primary cause is the government not spending wisely enough to tackle these issues.
 

RedSky

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Another issue is just purely based on numbers. The infrastructure is crumbling to pieces. The city has improved its railways but they remain crowded, the roads are poor (holes in the roads are common). The NHS and police are also particularly struggling in London (which is why gang related crime is an issue here) and housing prices are ridiculously high anywhere in London. This is partly due to the number of people moving to London and also an aging population, but the primary cause is the government not spending wisely enough to tackle these issues.
That isn't isolated to just London, those are issues country wide. Yell at the Tory Government for barely spending any money into our infrastructure, that's the real issue here.
 

0le

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That isn't isolated to just London, those are issues country wide. Yell at the Tory Government for barely spending any money into our infrastructure, that's the real issue here.
Well its a bit of both tory and labour governments but yes, I agree.
 

FlawlessThaw

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There are a small number of issues. One is that the cultures tend to be very segregated. Tourists and visitors won't notice this because they tend to only visit central London, but if you go to some parts in Greater London, its very noticeable. As a result, there seems to be a lack of effort to integrate, socially, between the communities. Polish people will stick with other polish, almost religiously. Same with Chinese people. Same with English people. However, it has improved in some areas over time.
To be fair that type of thing is fairly common across the world. When the English go to Spain, they don't always assimilate and we don't cry home about it.

Personally as someone that comes from a community, I don't really see a problem with integration as it's another buzzword that doesn't mean much. The crucial thing is to respect the country's laws, not to create walls and to participate in the important events such as voting. Am I that bothered that there is enclave of Vauxhall that is Little Portugal? No and I don't see why people should be.
 

Maticmaker

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I think that's exactly what he means. So just like every other modern cosmopolitan city.

This whole nostalgia thing is actually quite dangerous. People wanting the sort of change you could only implement with a time machine. When the electorate start demanding things that no political party could ever reasonably promise to deliver, you end up with bullshit artists like like Trump and Johnson coming into power.
Every major city in almost all Western countries are cosmopolitan in nature and have been for years. I don't think its nostalgia as such for most people who actually live there but only for people like Cleese who have for all intents and purposes left to reside elsewhere. Sean Connery's the same always banging on about Scotland, but doesn't live there.
Brexit, at least for the leavers I've met, goes much deeper, most don't want to be part of a European super state which is where the EU is heading and don't like the idea of someone telling them what to do, which how the EU Commission and other aspects of the EU is perceived.
 

finneh

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The country is only in a decent position for those doing well economically. A lot of people who've been hit hard by austerity haven't recovered despite economic improvements and rightfully argue that they were punished for the errors of rich bankers. The argument that their arguments are based on fairytales are largely bollocks anyway - governments find money when they want to spend it and I'd much rather they actually spent it on people to reduce inequality instead of bribing other parties like May did.

Along similar lines a lot of younger people have supported Labour because they see rising house prices and reducing opportunities for employment and get annoyed that they're being told it's somehow all their fault after older generations largely fecked them over economically. The current settlement of capitalism just isn't working for a lot of them.

I have a lot of issues with Corbyn, primarily relating to his stance on Brexit and a lot of the dodgy associations he's had over the years, but there's a lot he's right on and there are reasons a lot of people want him in power. What do the Tories offer anyone under the age of 65?
I disagree that the country is only doing ok for the wealthy. Unemployment is at a historic low. The majority of new jobs created are full time. The minimum wage has increased 25% from £6.50 to £8.13 over the past 5 years, whilst inflation has increased at less than half this rate. General Wage growth is strong (average 3%). The tax free allowance has increased from £8k to £12.5k over the same period. The bottom 10% in terms of earnings (the poorest workers in society) are seeing % wage growth at the fastest of all bands. I'd absolutely say that the country is doing decent by any normal metric. Obviously the country isn't back to where it was pre-crash and obviously there are still people who're absolutely struggling every day; however if you don't believe the country as a whole have done "decent" over the last 5 years then I'd say that your expectations need to be tempered.

I don't want this turning into a Tory vs Labour discussion as I support neither, but to believe that the Labour manifesto of 2017 would do anything to help the people you speak about is simply bizarre. Implementing it would have tanked the economy which would have made everyone poorer, especially the young who already outpace other age groups in terms of unemployment.

The stupidity of Brexit shouldn't be excused by the fact that not everyone who voted Remain was perfectly informed
My view is that between the implementation of that Labour manifesto and more fundamentally the key (sole in my view) purpose of any government in keeping people safe with Corbyn, Abbott, McDonnell and Thornberry leading things; compared with a no deal Brexit with literally anyone else in charge I'd choose the latter every time.
 
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Maticmaker

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Politician lies to the public and its now Misconduct in Public Office almost like "Dog bites man" headline!

Apart from it gaining Boris another slew of votes for his leadership bid amongst the tory faithful, we can look forward to a few more of these accusations being slung around.

Theresa May's first up with "We are leaving the EU on the 29th March"
 

Smores

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Politician lies to the public and its now Misconduct in Public Office almost like "Dog bites man" headline!

Apart from it gaining Boris another slew of votes for his leadership bid amongst the tory faithful, we can look forward to a few more of these accusations being slung around.

Theresa May's first up with "We are leaving the EU on the 29th March"
I actually don't agree with the Boris charge but your comparison isn't right. Boris is charged with knowing the facts and purposefully misleading with false facts whilst May's is a statement of intent she didn't deliver on.

Most politicians shift the question to an alternative fact that creates a different angle rather than flat out deceive. Boris isn't bright enough to do that.
 

Maticmaker

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I actually don't agree with the Boris charge but your comparison isn't right. Boris is charged with knowing the facts and purposefully misleading with false facts whilst May's is a statement of intent she didn't deliver on.

Most politicians shift the question to an alternative fact that creates a different angle rather than flat out deceive. Boris isn't bright enough to do that.
Boris could argue the same, it was his intention, but he didn't deliver because Brexit hasn't happened yet. In theory if he becomes Tory leader/PM and delivers on Brexit, then he has to live up to his £350M statement. Similarly May kept repeating her mantra about leaving on the 29th of March even after her 'deal' had been defeated twice in the HoC.

As I say look forward to many more such accusations arising, right across the political spectrum, just what we need to divert attention from the pickle we are in!
 

Smores

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Boris could argue the same, it was his intention, but he didn't deliver because Brexit hasn't happened yet. In theory if he becomes Tory leader/PM and delivers on Brexit, then he has to live up to his £350M statement. Similarly May kept repeating her mantra about leaving on the 29th of March even after her 'deal' had been defeated twice in the HoC.

As I say look forward to many more such accusations arising, right across the political spectrum, just what we need to divert attention from the pickle we are in!
I don't believe this is in regards to the investment into the NHS, it's the claim we're sending 350 million a week which is just flat out false.

As i said i don't think such private prosecutions are the form to challenge blatant lies. The electoral commission should be given extra powers to enforce corrections being published immediately and fine further discretions heavily.
 

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I don't believe this is in regards to the investment into the NHS, it's the claim we're sending 350 million a week which is just flat out false.

As i said i don't think such private prosecutions are the form to challenge blatant lies. The electoral commission should be given extra powers to enforce corrections being published immediately and fine further discretions heavily.
He was challenged on it by the BBC in the referendum campaign. He was sat on the bus whilst being interviewed. The interviewer repeatedly said it was false information and why it was false information while Boris repeatedly claimed it wasn't with no qualification to back up his claim.
 

Maticmaker

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I don't believe this is in regards to the investment into the NHS, it's the claim we're sending 350 million a week which is just flat out false.

As i said i don't think such private prosecutions are the form to challenge blatant lies. The electoral commission should be given extra powers to enforce corrections being published immediately and fine further discretions heavily.

I understand what you mean, recent figures (today on Google news brief) suggest the net UK contribution after the rebate came to £6.5B for the last year figures are available. The actual amount paid per annum (before rebate) was around £10B/yr, which fell to £8.5B.
Boris' defence will no doubt point to the lack of independent audit of EU figures, there is still dispute in some quarters about the validity of the £39B divorce settlement total.

I thought Boris got panned because it was his suggestion the NHS would benefit directly from the UK leaving the EU. if I remember correctly the actual amount was in dispute from day one of the launch of the coach, with Boris later admitting it was £250M not £350m. It was this supposed injection of former EU monies directly to the NHS that swung public opinion behind Brexit ( if indeed that's what it did).

Whatever the truth, this is a side show and a distraction from the real problems we face and is and will be seen, as a deliberate attempt to 'blacken' Boris's reputation, prior to the leadership election... which I would have thought he needed no help from anyone! Unfortunately Boris is like Trump the more he is attacked by his enemies the more his supporters love him!
 

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Their plan appears to be the free marketeers dream of a deregulated Singapore-on-Thames offshore haven with a privatised NHS and corporation tax rates of 10% (plus a big trade deal with the Donald).
According to Farage, we only do 15% of trade with the EU anyway, and we will just deal with the other 85% of the World. This was in the Marr interview that some people claimed he had won, with such simplistic bullshit lies like this.
 

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I disagree that the country is only doing ok for the wealthy. Unemployment is at a historic low. The majority of new jobs created are full time. The minimum wage has increased 25% from £6.50 to £8.13 over the past 5 years, whilst inflation has increased at less than half this rate. General Wage growth is strong (average 3%). The tax free allowance has increased from £8k to £12.5k over the same period. The bottom 10% in terms of earnings (the poorest workers in society) are seeing % wage growth at the fastest of all bands. I'd absolutely say that the country is doing decent by any normal metric. Obviously the country isn't back to where it was pre-crash and obviously there are still people who're absolutely struggling every day; however if you don't believe the country as a whole have done "decent" over the last 5 years then I'd say that your expectations need to be tempered.

I don't want this turning into a Tory vs Labour discussion as I support neither, but to believe that the Labour manifesto of 2017 would do anything to help the people you speak about is simply bizarre. Implementing it would have tanked the economy which would have made everyone poorer, especially the young who already outpace other age groups in terms of unemployment.
Unemployment is low but I'd argue job security isn't as strong as it was before which contributes highly to a lot of people's anxieties. Sectors are increasingly being automated and a lot of people feel left behind by an economy that doesn't value them and isn't doing anything to help them as they try to get by. Those in a position to earn are doing alright but those who've been hit hardest by austerity quite evidently aren't; there have been UN reports which have detailed how austerity has hurt some of Britain's poorest people and those policies have been implemented out of ideology alone. Those hit by austerity have suffered because of the greed of those who crashed the economy in the first place.

Housing prices have also skyrocketed and young people are less able to afford property than they were before - this is fundamentally a bad thing because in a capitalist society the people who do well should, to some degree, be able to obtain capital. And so instead people are having to rent for much longer and deal with all the uncertainties that surround doing so, often dealing with landlords who greedily increase prices when they don't need to. I'm no fan of Thatcher or her ideology but this is something she understood - for right-wing politics to work a substantial portion of the population actually need to see the benefit of said policies. Swathes of younger voters just aren't getting anything from the current economic settlement they operate within.

Figures may indicate we've made an economic recovery to a certain extent but those same figures largely ignore the hurt that's been inflicted on Britain's most vulnerable individuals - there's been plenty of documentation of the cruel approach the DWP have often used when targeting those out of work through no fault of their own. Similarly young people aren't reaping the rewards of capitalism in the same way previous generations did and are condescendingly being blamed for mistakes made by older generations. Hence they're responding in kind to vote for a government that actually promises to help them. I'm no Corbyn voter and I don't doubt many of his plans have their own flaws, but there is quite clearly a desire to see substantial change within the country.

I'm not sure how anyone can look at the current divisions and anxieties we're seeing across the globe and argue that everything is fine. Do you think people are just opting for more populist political parties arbitrarily? If not, what's the reason behind it?
 

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Let's cut to the chase. When people say a multicultural city is "not really British", they mean they see too many people of different colours.
 

finneh

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I'm not sure how anyone can look at the current divisions and anxieties we're seeing across the globe and argue that everything is fine. Do you think people are just opting for more populist political parties arbitrarily? If not, what's the reason behind it?
I think it's far more nuanced than "people poorer, people choose extreme parties". As I said most statistics show things are getting back to 2007 levels, albeit far more slowly than most would like.

I agree with you by the way, but disagree with the reason. You blame austerity, I blame successive governments of all three colours who've implemented tax and spend policies and then do what people do with heaps of cash that isn't theirs: squander it.

You look at every department and every single one claims to be underfunded. The NHS, Education, Military, local government, Police, Welfare, Pensions... However at the same time we're still spending more than the record tax level both as a % and as a number in modern times.

That's a clear oxymoron. We can't be hugely overspending on a record tax take, whilst also underfunding every single department via "austerity". Austerity would have the country paying off the national debt at a 10 or 11 figure level per annum, not adding to it at that rate. If you get a pay rise and at the same time cut your expenditure... You don't end up with less money, that's physically impossible.

The problem is a circular one. Government waste money because there's no incentive to use it effectively. Government runs out of money so increases tax. Government waste tax because see sentence two. Government increases tax. This is literally the reason for laws against monopolies... What do you think would happen if only Amazon were legally allowed to sell things to the public?

They'll be increasing unrest as this model isn't sustainable. The pension for young people today isn't sustainable, the health deficit for people today isn't sustainable, the welfare deficit isn't sustainable, the care deficit isn't sustainable.

The fact that my current tax is being used to pay for a 70 years old's pension is literally legalised theft. My tax should be ring fenced for when my generation is 70, just like my grandparents should have been ring fenced for theirs. Do you know what the term is for that in the private sector? A ponzi scheme! It's the biggest legalised ponzi scheme known to man and just like with Madoff... The scheme can only crumble.
 
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Sigma

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Matt Hancock on Newsnight at the moment and he seems pretty clueless. Talking about how we can use 'alternative arrangements' to sort out the backstop without explaining (like anyone else who uses that phrase) what that is.