I listened to BJs speech, again, i am somewhat bemused by anyone thinking we'll be back in three weeks. Im equally bemused by the thinking that suggesting Germany is planning to return on the 9th May that that is a yardstick to measure the UK.
1) the information I've read suggests the Bundesliga is preparing to return. However, there is NO political approval. You can wish to date someone all you want unless they say yes, it isn't happening..
2) unlike graphs we've seen that model pandemics, COVID isn't displaying as a normal distribution. Germans week was approx. 4 weeks, they're 6 weeks after that now and still getting 1200 new cases.
3) the longtail of Germany is 6 weeks and still way above the 600 ish cases we started shutting down. A week ago Germany had 1300 cases.. This looks like a very long tail.
4) the UKs peek took approx. 6 week, we've been flat for 2 weeks. Are we going to have a longer tail than Germany? i suspect so...