[BenitoSTARR]

Right time to put an end to so much bull that has been spouted in this thread. David De Gea this season:

1. De Gea has faced 120 shots this season on target
2. He’s saved 87
3. 72.5% success rate (6th best)
4. He has cost us 6 points from 7 mistakes this season (Cost points only if the mistake resulted in win->draw or draw->loss)
5. He also cost us FA Cup progression

For context Dean “The Second Coming of Christ” Henderson this season:

1. Face 126 shots on target
2. Saved 96
3. 76.2% success rate (for context if De Gea saves 4 more he’d have an equal rate)
4. He has cost Sheffield United 5 points
5. He also cost them FA Cup progression

https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/keepers/Premier-League-Stats

And if you want to do you own analysis of mistakes

 

[Relevated]

Okay i have a confession. I'm also a goalkeeper and at times I've extremely good but I have a bad habit of letting in goals due to extremely high levels of sudden anxiety.

Just thought I'd put that out there.

 

[Adnan]

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[midnightmare]

Right time to put an end to so much bull that has been spouted in this thread. David De Gea this season:

1. De Gea has faced 120 shots this season on target
2. He’s saved 87
3. 72.5% success rate (6th best)
4. He has cost us 6 points from 7 mistakes this season (Cost points only if the mistake resulted in win->draw or draw->loss)
5. He also cost us FA Cup progression

For context Dean “The Second Coming of Christ” Henderson this season:

1. Face 126 shots on target
2. Saved 96
3. 76.2% success rate (for context if De Gea saves 4 more he’d have an equal rate)
4. He has cost Sheffield United 5 points
5. He also cost them FA Cup progression

https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/keepers/Premier-League-Stats

And if you want to do you own analysis of mistakes

Just to be pedantic:
1. How can a mistake leading to the first goal in a 2-0 loss cost “0 points”? It absolutely changes the game. I refer of course, to Watford where his blunder led to the opener.
2. Against SHU away, their third should have been stopped. Arguably the second too. Not clear errors but not the best keeping.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but defending de Gea is now down to trying to say he’s not “too poor” and not costing us too much etc. which isn’t good enough. Not if we’re to improve. Also, there’s a thread to discuss DdG vs Henderson. If we’re to assess DdG purely on “is he good enough to be our certain starter for next season”, I’m sorry to say but the answer has to be no. If expert assessments say Dean isn’t a significant upgrade, the answer is to find someone who is, not to stick with mediocrity and errors.

 

[Web of Bissaka]

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Really? Normally he will say De Gea will play.

Unless in the actual interview, he refused to answer interviewer's question.
^ which media can easily spins around to build a narrative.

 

[Web of Bissaka]

Right time to put an end to so much bull that has been spouted in this thread. David De Gea this season:

1. De Gea has faced 120 shots this season on target
2. He’s saved 87
3. 72.5% success rate (6th best)
4. He has cost us 6 points from 7 mistakes this season (Cost points only if the mistake resulted in win->draw or draw->loss)
5. He also cost us FA Cup progression

For context Dean “The Second Coming of Christ” Henderson this season:

1. Face 126 shots on target
2. Saved 96
3. 76.2% success rate (for context if De Gea saves 4 more he’d have an equal rate)
4. He has cost Sheffield United 5 points
5. He also cost them FA Cup progression

https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/keepers/Premier-League-Stats

And if you want to do you own analysis of mistakes

Cheers mate, good effort.

Conclusion: like for like then.

Wouldn't matter much if we swap 'em both.
Except one is older on an expensive contract seemingly declining, and we know his limitations eg. organise defenses, etc.
And the other is young and definitely had potential to improve more.

Easy choice!

 

[bond19821982]

@BenitoSTARR excellent analysis. We know Hendo is going to mistake and thats exactly why we need him back next year. Let him and DDG share the games . This would give us opportunity to see how good he is and he can improve without being in limelight.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

It’s not a good analysis. It doesn’t take into account how many points a keeper has saved for their club, among many other things. That’s why xG stats are much better because they offer far more context than some reddit user wasting their time like that.

 

[crazysherlock]

One of de gea's unique attributes was his use of footwork to save shots close to his body. I dont think he uses his feet as much as he used to probably due to new coaching. Specially for shots close to the body and low to the ground, when he previously would have blocked with his feet he seems to be diving these days. That may be the reason why he is not performing as well these days.

 

[EwanI Ted]

It’s not a good analysis. It doesn’t take into account how many points a keeper has saved for their club, among many other things. That’s why xG stats are much better because they offer far more context than some reddit user wasting their time like that.

As was pointed out to him in the other thread, but he’s found half a stat that kind of supports his case and he’s clinging to it.

 

[sport2793]

Little Glace of his mistakes this season. Some cost us valuable points

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No matter how much of a De Gea fan anyone is, this is an embarrassing watch, all from this season too! Really depressing to see his regression and unfortunately I think this is who he is now based on his performances both for United and Spain.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

It’s not a good analysis. It doesn’t take into account how many points a keeper has saved for their club, among many other things. That’s why xG stats are much better because they offer far more context than some reddit user wasting their time like that.

I have never once claimed Henderson isn’t saving them more points. I understand the XGA stat and it’s a good measure of goals stopped.

However no player in the history of the PL has had a season like De Geas +14 and so well likely never see one like it again. I absolutely do not expect Henderson to get another +8/9 season as no GK in PL history has managed two like that. It’s impressive for what it is, a great season.

What I only take issue with is the narrative that De Gea has cost us points.

The analysis backs up that Henderson and De Gea based on an almost identical sample size have dropped their teams 5 and 6 points respectively.

What I am fed up of seeing on this thread and the other threads is De Gea made out to be a complete calamity which is simple not true and if that is the agenda people want to push then you have to also say the same is true of Henderson who has made similar errors and cost similar points.

I believe wholeheartedly Henderson has had a better season than De Gea I’ve said numerous times I’d love Henderson to replace De Gea at the club and even think Henderson should be given a chance to fight it out with De Gea. But forums are seldom places where such a nuanced view can thrive particularly after a loss or terrible performance from an individual.

I’m merely pointing out a lie that is becoming truth in many peoples eyes due to how often it’s being repeated.

I have watched every single goal that both De Gea and Henderson have conceded and I would encourage you all to do so too. It will make you re asses your views of both players.

As was pointed out to him in the other thread, but he’s found half a stat that kind of supports his case and he’s clinging to it.

It’s not half a stat it’s a complete and full analysis of every goal conceded by both goal keepers and I am confident it is far more than youve put into observing both players.

This proves the exact point I’m trying to make that De Gea is making comparable mistakes to Henderson and so the criticism of De Gea is unfair due to him being at United and Henderson being protected by being at a smaller club away from the eyes of fans like yiu

But stick to your “calamity” De Gea agenda by all means.

Overall to me Henderson has had the better season and I’d like to see him given a chance but in order for him to have a chance fans need to be realistic about what is coming back to replace De Gea. Henderson isn’t the complete package he will make mistakes and he will cost us points too. I would hope that fans on this thread and others can at least have the decency to give him more of a chance than they have De Gea.

 

[Kostov]

Right time to put an end to so much bull that has been spouted in this thread. David De Gea this season:

1. De Gea has faced 120 shots this season on target
2. He’s saved 87
3. 72.5% success rate (6th best)
4. He has cost us 6 points from 7 mistakes this season (Cost points only if the mistake resulted in win->draw or draw->loss)
5. He also cost us FA Cup progression

For context Dean “The Second Coming of Christ” Henderson this season:

1. Face 126 shots on target
2. Saved 96
3. 76.2% success rate (for context if De Gea saves 4 more he’d have an equal rate)
4. He has cost Sheffield United 5 points
5. He also cost them FA Cup progression

https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/keepers/Premier-League-Stats

And if you want to do you own analysis of mistakes

That goal from Calvert Lewin against Everton was a blatant foul on DDG, absolute shit refereeing to be hones. On the other hand, a mistake like that one against Watford is counted as 0 points while it has a huge impact on a result when going from 1:0 to 2:0 which is basically a game over. Not the best metric imo to be fair.

 

[EwanI Ted]

But stick to your “calamity” De Gea agenda by all means.

Man you love them straw men. I made no such claim. I said his performance was mid-table this season. You disagree?

 

[BenitoSTARR]

That goal from Calvert Lewin against Everton was a blatant foul on DDG, absolute shit refereeing to be hones. On the other hand, a mistake like that one against Watford is counted as 0 points while it has a huge impact on a result when going from 1:0 to 2:0 which is basically a game over. Not the best metric imo to be fair.

I think you can see my point though. He’s not costing us points any more than Henderson.

If you remove the mistake we still lost so the metric is fine only for what it’s intending to make discuss. Mistakes being the difference between points.

There are lots of occasions where I think it’s harsh on De Gea which is why I did my own view of each goal.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

Man you love them straw men. I made no such claim. I said his performance was mid-table this season. You disagree?

You love a straw man. You also love making headline statements with no insight.

Anything I present will be ignored unless it supports your agenda. You’re biased and aren’t open to any nuanced view on the GK situation.

I doubt any GK in the league hasn’t cost a side points.

Do you still believe De Gea is costing us loads of points or do you accept it’s actually a similar level to supposed “better” performers?

 

[11101]

It’s not a good analysis. It doesn’t take into account how many points a keeper has saved for their club, among many other things. That’s why xG stats are much better because they offer far more context than some reddit user wasting their time like that.

I also want to know how many goals we have conceded because he won't come off his line and command his area, but that's almost impossible to quantify. I don't watch Sheffield United enough to know if Henderson is miles better at that or not.

 

[EwanI Ted]

You love a straw man. You also love making headline statements with no insight.

Anything I present will be ignored unless it supports your agenda. You’re biased and aren’t open to any nuanced view on the GK situation.

I doubt any GK in the league hasn’t cost a side points.

Do you still believe De Gea is costing us loads of points or do you accept it’s actually a similar level to supposed “better” performers?

You going to answer my question or not?

 

[Classical Mechanic]

I have never once claimed Henderson isn’t saving them more points. I understand the XGA stat and it’s a good measure of goals stopped.

However no player in the history of the PL has had a season like De Geas +14 and so well likely never see one like it again. I absolutely do not expect Henderson to get another +8/9 season as no GK in PL history has managed two like that. It’s impressive for what it is, a great season.

What I only take issue with is the narrative that De Gea has cost us points.

The analysis backs up that Henderson and De Gea based on an almost identical sample size have dropped their teams 5 and 6 points respectively.

What I am fed up of seeing on this thread and the other threads is De Gea made out to be a complete calamity which is simple not true and if that is the agenda people want to push then you have to also say the same is true of Henderson who has made similar errors and cost similar points.

I believe wholeheartedly Henderson has had a better season than De Gea I’ve said numerous times I’d love Henderson to replace De Gea at the club and even think Henderson should be given a chance to fight it out with De Gea. But forums are seldom places where such a nuanced view can thrive particularly after a loss or terrible performance from an individual.

I’m merely pointing out a lie that is becoming truth in many peoples eyes due to how often it’s being repeated.

I have watched every single goal that both De Gea and Henderson have conceded and I would encourage you all to do so too. It will make you re asses your views of both players.

It’s not half a stat it’s a complete and full analysis of every goal conceded by both goal keepers and I am confident it is far more than youve put into observing both players.

This proves the exact point I’m trying to make that De Gea is making comparable mistakes to Henderson and so the criticism of De Gea is unfair due to him being at United and Henderson being protected by being at a smaller club away from the eyes of fans like yiu

But stick to your “calamity” De Gea agenda by all means.

Overall to me Henderson has had the better season and I’d like to see him given a chance but in order for him to have a chance fans need to be realistic about what is coming back to replace De Gea. Henderson isn’t the complete package he will make mistakes and he will cost us points too. I would hope that fans on this thread and others can at least have the decency to give him more of a chance than they have De Gea.

I have looked at it. It's a really poor analysis. Firstly it's based on one fans purely subjective analysis on what an error is. There's reason why data science teams at all clubs use advanced metrics like xG, do you really think that data science teams are sat in Carrington doing stuff like that reddit post?

As an example, you could have a game where a keeper makes numerous excellent saves and one 'error'. Despite the 'error' they may still have outperformed the expected goals against them within the game so the idea that they have lost their team points is completely misleading.

It doesn't consider points won through outperforming their xGA.

It doesn't consider the other aspects of goalkeeping that enhance team performance like playing out from the back and commanding their area.

That's why data science teams are using metrics like the one in the post (this is only surface stuff, they'll go a lot deeper into the minutiae)

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Whilst what us plebs have access to is less sophisticated it's far more enlightening than some fan on reddit focusing on a narrow aspect of performance with little context and imprinted with their own uneducated subjective opinion.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

I also want to know how many goals we have conceded because he won't come off his line and command his area, but that's almost impossible to quantify. I don't watch Sheffield United enough to know if Henderson is miles better at that or not.

There is some data for how 'commanding' goalkeepers are, unsurprisingly DDG is among the least commanding in the PL, which means his defence are under more pressure.

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[BenitoSTARR]

It’s not meant to measure points won I’m not arguing that at all.

De Gea hasn’t cost us more than 6 points all season prove me wrong.

 

[mu4c_20le]

As was pointed out to him in the other thread, but he’s found half a stat that kind of supports his case and he’s clinging to it.

Well, it was made by someone who actually watched the games. Not surprising that you found it a waste of time. That's all I wanted you to do in the other thread, to actually watch the games and not rely on a bunch of numbers.

 

[EwanI Ted]

Well, it was made by someone who actually watched the games. Not surprising that you found it a waste of time. That's all I wanted you to do in the other thread, to actually watch the games and not rely on a bunch of numbers.

It was a waste of time because it didn't consider the full game, it only looked at goals conceded in isolation. It didn't even look at saves made. I mean this is such simple stuff, is it really that hard to understand?

 

[BenitoSTARR]

Well, it was made by someone who actually watched the games. Not surprising that you found it a waste of time. That's all I wanted you to do in the other thread, to actually watch the games and not rely on a bunch of numbers.

You could show him all the errors and he’d still disagree.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

It was a waste of time because it didn't consider the full game, it only looked at goals conceded in isolation. It didn't even look at saves made. I mean this is such simple stuff, is it really that hard to understand?

It’s only supposed to help compare mistakes.

You’re more than welcome to watch all the clips to see the saves made too but there isn’t any point because you can use the XGA to do that for you?

 

[Adnan]

I also want to know how many goals we have conceded because he won't come off his line and command his area, but that's almost impossible to quantify. I don't watch Sheffield United enough to know if Henderson is miles better at that or not.

This

 

[BenitoSTARR]

I also want to know how many goals we have conceded because he won't come off his line and command his area, but that's almost impossible to quantify. I don't watch Sheffield United enough to know if Henderson is miles better at that or not.

This

Do what I’ve done and watch the goals conceded and make your own mind up.

Im happy that it’s not an issue having watched every goal.

Henderson doesn’t fly off his line either btw. There’s something like a 0.6m difference in their positions (I’ll find you the source for that stat)

 

[mu4c_20le]

It was a waste of time because it didn't consider the full game, it only looked at goals conceded in isolation. It didn't even look at saves made. I mean this is such simple stuff, is it really that hard to understand?

Well it's clearly more than the little column you showed me, that said errors David De Gea (3). It shows you all the goals conceded and lets you decide which ones are errors, not to mention showing you how they could do better on some of the goals. Something which you didn't understand, but like I said, you already made up your mind and are only interested in stats that you think will win you the argument.

 

[Adnan]

Do what I’ve done and watch the goals conceded and make your own mind up.

Im happy that it’s not an issue having watched every goal.

Henderson doesn’t fly off his line either btw. There’s something like a 0.6m difference in their positions (I’ll find you the source for that stat)

Henderson isn't the only goalkeeper in the world.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

Well it's clearly more than the little column you showed me, that said errors David De Gea (3). It shows you all the goals conceded and lets you decide which ones are errors, not to mention showing you how they could do better on some of the goals. Something which you didn't understand, but like I said, you already made up your mind and are only interested in stats that you think will win you the argument.

I’d happily debate any goal people disagree with being De Gea or Henderson’s mistake but so far nobody wants to?

It’s clear as day the mistakes aren’t the issue.

The issue is he’s not saving above XG as much as his best season and this I believe is linked to our reduction in shots outside the box. I think we have one of the lowest outside box shots of the PL which is typically where De Gea would excel.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

I’d happily debate any goal people disagree with being De Gea or Henderson’s mistake but so far nobody wants to?

It’s clear as day the mistakes aren’t the issue.

The issue is he’s not saving above XG as much as his best season and this I believe is linked to our reduction in shots outside the box. I think we have one of the lowest outside box shots of the PL which is typically where De Gea would excel.

Shot from outside the box are very low xG because its harder to score from there so it isn't that. It's more likely that whilst he still makes some great saves he's letting in too many saveable goals which is why he's data shows him as an average shot stopper overall by PL levels.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

Henderson isn't the only goalkeeper in the world.

How insightful...

Id love Oblak or other world class GKs in place of De Gea but this isn’t the debate that’s causing me an issue. It would also be incredibly expensive to pursue such a deal.

I know De Gea hasn’t been world class, Henderson has had a better season and there are better GKs but this isn’t what I’m highlighting. I would agree with anyone who says Henderson has had a better season what I take issue with is the false narrative that De Gea is actively costing points with mistakes.

If you want to argue Henderson is saving more points I’d absolutely agree.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

Shot from outside the box are very low xG because its harder to score from there so it isn't that.

True so perhaps the issue with XG lies elsewhere but it is not in a handful of mistakes comparable to Henderson’s.

Now you are asking really good questions what is Henderson doing to have a better XGA than De Gea this is an excellent question to look into.

The problem is the answer isn’t straightforward but people don’t like that.

 

[crossy1686]

It’s not meant to measure points won I’m not arguing that at all.

De Gea hasn’t cost us more than 6 points all season prove me wrong.

How many points has he won us?

 

[Adnan]

How insightful...

Id love Oblak or other world class GKs in place of De Gea but this isn’t the debate that’s causing me an issue. It would also be incredibly expensive to pursue such a deal.

I know De Gea hasn’t been world class, Henderson has had a better season and there are better GKs but this isn’t what I’m highlighting. I would agree with anyone who says Henderson has had a better season what I take issue with is the false narrative that De Gea is actively costing points with mistakes.

If you want to argue Henderson is saving more points I’d absolutely agree.

What's causing you issues isn't my concern. This thread isn't about Henderson either.

 

[11101]

Do what I’ve done and watch the goals conceded and make your own mind up.

Im happy that it’s not an issue having watched every goal.

Henderson doesn’t fly off his line either btw. There’s something like a 0.6m difference in their positions (I’ll find you the source for that stat)

I've watched every game. It's clear it is an issue, one that used to be masked by his extraordinary saving ability. The issue he faces is that that is no longer cancelling out the other.

Whether Henderson is any better i dont know.

 

[EwanI Ted]

It’s only supposed to help compare mistakes.

You’re more than welcome to watch all the clips to see the saves made too but there isn’t any point because you can use the XGA to do that for you?

Looking at what a keeper did wrong without also looking at what they did right is so flawed as to be a waste of time. The xGA says that Henderson made around 8 saves this season that De Gea would have missed. Quite literally, if the clubs were reversed, De Gea would have let in more goals for Sheff United and/or Henderson would have saved more for United. That's why a comparison of this type is extremely limited and certainly can't be used to say how one keeper is performing compared to another.

 

[Alemar]

Now you are asking really good questions what is Henderson doing to have a better XGA than De Gea this is an excellent question to look into.

The problem is the answer isn’t straightforward but people don’t like that.

De Gea saves shots normally and gets some xGA, but every once in a while also lets an easily ball in (through his wrists mainly), and it sets his stat back. If not for several huge howlers like this, he could have sat at +4 xGA or thereabouts

 

[crossy1686]

I also want to know how many goals we have conceded because he won't come off his line and command his area, but that's almost impossible to quantify. I don't watch Sheffield United enough to know if Henderson is miles better at that or not.

100% this, not only that, how deep our defence have to drop because he won't play the role of sweeper-keeper and come out of his area when we're on the attack. The gap between our midfield and defence is criminal sometimes, we just invite pressure when we lose the ball and give the opposition an easy long ball option.

 

[mu4c_20le]

I've watched every game. It's clear it is an issue, one that used to be masked by his extraordinary saving ability. The issue he faces is that that is no longer cancelling out the other.

Whether Henderson is any better i dont know.

Deano is a puncher. His aerial ability is decent. Don't expect him to be super commanding and catch them confidently like VDS, he is actually similar to De Gea in many ways but is also very brave coming off his line, sometimes a bit too much and gets caught out. But thats what the loan is for.