SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

It’s not just the kids though. What about the parents socialising in the playground? It’s probably the biggest cross section in terms of people from all walks of life.

They don’t right now, period! That’d be an incredibly stupid idea.

 

[Jippy]

Croatia has a population of 4 million with 300 cases while UK has 16/17 times the number of people with a 1000 cases and most likely more testing. Croatia is the equivalent of 5k cases in the UK.

It's numbers have obviously increased with tourism, as has been seen in across the Med I guess. At least there it has a hot climate, so you eat outside etc...reducing transmission.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Hopefully all schools are reminding parents about their responsibilities to act safely - parents really should all be aware by now.

For my son's new school, we've got staggered start times, so different year groups don't overlap during drop-off/home time, as well as a bunch of general guidelines on how the school day works.

Yeah, same with us. And I’d imagine it’s the same with every school.

Something that doesn’t get mentioned often is “playdates” (if you’ll excuse the Americanism) Our kids have been in and out of their friend’s houses constantly for the last several months. So it’s not as though the return to school is the first time they’ll be mingling together and bringing germs from one household to the next. If the schools didn’t open we’d be forcing kids/parents to endure another term of home schooling in the knowledge that they’ll still be hanging out together, indoors, on a daily basis. Which would be a really annoying inconsistency.

 

[Sweet Square]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[sparx99]

They don’t right now, period! That’d be an incredibly stupid idea.

Personally, I don't have a lot of faith in the average person adhering to rules. Maybe parents are a better group because of their responsibility to keep their family safe. Judging from I see at the shops or pubs/restaurants etc I don't hold out much hope!

 

[lynchie]

https://virologydownunder.com/rhinovirus-rampant-or-testing-triumphant/

This is quite interesting on Australian data showing that social distancing seems to have shut down flu transmission, but not so much the rhinoviruses.

 

[lynchie]

Personally, I don't have a lot of faith in the average person adhering to rules. Maybe parents are a better group because of their responsibility to keep their family safe. Judging from I see at the shops or pubs/restaurants etc I don't hold out much hope!

If it makes you feel better, there's probably also a less altruistic motivation - parents have had their kids home since March, and if there's an outbreak at school, they're going to have them around the house even more!

 

[decorativeed]

Split in Croatia. We used the ePassport gates, so didn't speak to anyone and then just got our bags and a taxi home.
I probably shouldn't be surprised, given the government's handling of the whole thing. The policing of the self-quarantine regime is seemingly done on trust.

The policing of everything is done on trust, it seems. Leads to things like my train to work this morning only having half of the people wearing masks, and hundreds wandering around the arndale without them.

 

[Balljy]

https://virologydownunder.com/rhinovirus-rampant-or-testing-triumphant/

This is quite interesting on Australian data showing that social distancing seems to have shut down flu transmission, but not so much the rhinoviruses.

That's really interesting. It doesn't really make sense either how it's come back so well to over 9,000 infections per week. It's obvious that the virus(es) must be really infectious and may transmit via different routes, but to come back at a level so far removed from everything else is quite something. It never really "went away" as much as the others which would have an impact.

I can only guess that somewhere within the tracking there must be some very severe localised spreading going on to be that far removed from all other virus types.

 

[golden_blunder]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Oh oh

 

[Jippy]

The policing of everything is done on trust, it seems. Leads to things like my train to work this morning only having half of the people wearing masks, and hundreds wandering around the arndale without them.

It's just odd that you have the increasingly aggressive wording from the government, threatening fines of thousands of pounds, but then zero policing of it.
People understandably ignore the government's empty rhetoric, even bits that actually may be in their best interest.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

https://virologydownunder.com/rhinovirus-rampant-or-testing-triumphant/

This is quite interesting on Australian data showing that social distancing seems to have shut down flu transmission, but not so much the rhinoviruses.

That’s fascinating. God help us if the next pandemic is a rhinovirus!

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Good (lengthy) twitter thread on current disconnect between cases and deaths, why it’s happening and will it last.

TL;DR. Because it’s mainly young people getting infected and no, it won’t last. The virus is as deadly as ever and will work it’s way through to the elderly eventually.

 

[redshaw]

UK 4 deaths and 853 cases

Good to see cases relatively low still.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Good thread on what looks like first bone fide example of reinfection (viruses sequenced and second virus different strain to first)

 

[Maagge]

Below is the Danish data of new cases and new deaths since the start of this. I've added in the three red lines showing the initial lockdown, the partial reopening of schools and the "complete" reopening of schools, respectively. The green area marks the school holidays. While we've recently had an increase in new cases (which seems to have been contained at this point) it also shows that you can in fact still go to work, go to school and play sports as long as you're still adhering to certain new rules etc. @The Cat I thought you might want to see something like this.

 

[The Cat]

Thanks @Maagge

 

[Pexbo]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Good thread on what looks like first bone fide example of reinfection (viruses sequenced and second virus different strain to first)

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Second tweet feels like the most relevant in case people don’t or can’t click to read the thread.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Second tweet feels like the most relevant in case people don’t or can’t click to read the thread.

Yeah, it’s also consistent with what happens with other coronaviruses. You can get reinfected but tends to be much less severe. Does looks like this thing is here to stay though. Probably about time we banned the use of the phrase “herd immunity”!

 

[Camilo]

Yeah, it’s also consistent with what happens with other coronaviruses. You can get reinfected but tends to be much less severe. Does looks like this thing is here to stay though. Probably about time we banned the use of the phrase “herd immunity”!

I dunno about that, herd immunity is the reason influenza deaths are the non-event they are. This is just another virus which will slot right into everyday life once we start letting it get a grip/make a vaccine.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I dunno about that, herd immunity is the reason influenza deaths are the non-event they are. This is just another virus which will slot right into everyday life once we start letting it get a grip/make a vaccine.

Your first sentence is more or less the exact opposite of reality. There is no herd immunity to influenza, hence it kills thousands every year. I think I agree with the second sentence.

 

[Mb194dc]

Your first sentence is more or less the exact opposite of reality. There is no herd immunity to influenza, hence it kills thousands every year. I think I agree with the second sentence.

Of course there is herd immunity to influenza. It mutates around our immune response every season to maintain its existence though. We all have some resistance to it. Flu Pandemics occur when a strain evolves that most only have very little natural immunity to. Once it travels through the population it joins all the other strains and of course further mutates.

That pattern has gone on for thousands of years.

All evidence continues to point to sars cov 2 being similar. Any vaccine will be similar to flu vaccines at best, partly effective and will need changing annually or even more frequently.

Ultimately the only solution to covid 19 looks like everyone getting it, developing immunity and it then being a seasonal virus alongside influenza.

It's not particularly dangerous in almost all cases, most importantly there's nothing we can do about it and it's not more of a risk than influenza or multitude of other things in our daily lives to almost the entire population.

We've got leading immunologists telling us this and seemingly no one wants to face reality eg

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...avirus-height-pandemic-may-already-risk-says/

 

[Berbaclass]

Anyone else get the email from the telegraph?

thus is the text...

Dear reader,

A second national lockdown could be imposed, senior Government advisers have warned, as the upper limit of the R rate pushed over one for the first time since restrictions lifted. The Prime Minister ruled such a lockdown out last month, telling The Telegraph that the option was akin to a “nuclear deterrent”. Yet, senior sources are discussing how “more nationwide measures are needed”. Here’s what we know.

In preparation for the suspected bumpy autumn, Dr Aseem Malhotra has put together a 21-day plan to support your immune system and help fight off infections. Using his observations as a medical scientist and a clinical doctor, his plan helps to regulate and reduce inflammation, combat insulin resistance and improve overall metabolic health. This is what you should – and shouldn’t – be doing.

The UK, a leader in the airship revival, is going head to head with France in an escalating global race. Zeppelins and dirigible airships are now promising to provide the future of green transport, and if all goes well, as Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writes in this fascinating column, we will be able to hop virtuously from Liverpool to Belfast in point-to-point travel.

And which old-fashioned seaside town is suddenly back in vogue? David Atkinson joined the staycation stampede to stroll along this town’s windswept two-mile sweep of Victorian promenade and found that this once much-visited holiday haunt had come back with a boom.

Chris

 

[Camilo]

Your first sentence is more or less the exact opposite of reality. There is no herd immunity to influenza, hence it kills thousands every year. I think I agree with the second sentence.

I don't know what reality you're living in, but that's exactly how it's only thousands (probably still half a million though) who die from it.

Herd immunity is the only way out of this nonsense.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Of course there is herd immunity to influenza. It mutates around our immune response every season to maintain its existence though. We all have some resistance to it. Flu Pandemics occur when a strain evolves that most only have very little natural immunity to. Once it travels through the population it joins all the other strains and of course further mutates.

That pattern has gone on for thousands of years.

All evidence continues to point to sars cov 2 being similar. Any vaccine will be similar to flu vaccines at best, partly effective and will need changing annually or even more frequently.

Ultimately the only solution to covid 19 looks like everyone getting it, developing immunity and it then being a seasonal virus alongside influenza.

It's not particularly dangerous in almost all cases, most importantly there's nothing we can do about it and it's not more of a risk than influenza or multitude of other things in our daily lives to almost the entire population.

We've got leading immunologists telling us this and seemingly no one wants to face reality eg

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...avirus-height-pandemic-may-already-risk-says/

I don't know what reality you're living in, but that's exactly how it's only thousands (probably still half a million though) who die from it.

Herd immunity is the only way out of this nonsense.

You’re both misusing the term herd immunity. Which happens a lot. Herd immunity is a level of immunity that stops the spread of a contagion through the community. If immunity is only temporary, or if the virus mutates rapidly, then this option is taken off the table.

Flu rips through the population every year precisely because there isn’t a level of immunity high enough to stop it (i.e. there is no herd immunity) And that’s with vaccines available. The reason for this is because there are so many new strains to deal with. The hope with sars-cov-2 was that coronaviruses mutate much less than influenza virues and people might be immune permanently after getting infected (or vaccinated) so herd immunity could prevent outbreaks happening on a yearly basis, forever. This is looking less and less likely.

Although you are both right in that the longer this is around and the more people get infected there’s a good chance it becomes less of a problem. People getting infected for their second and subsequent times will hopefully get less sick (or not sick at all) That’s cold comfort for anyone aged 70+ though.

 

[Balljy]

The hope with sars-cov-2 was that coronaviruses mutate much less than influenza virues and people might be immune permanently after getting infected (or vaccinated) so herd immunity could prevent outbreaks happening on a yearly basis, forever. This is looking less and less likely.

I agree to your general point about herd immunity, but from evidence so far and 8 months into the virus the lack of new strains happening all the time does suggest we may eventually manage to get herd immunity through mass vaccinations (even if it takes 2 or 3 year depending on how long immunity lasts). It pretty evidently mutates less than influenza from the evidence we have so far.

Obviously we would also have to get the majority of the population to agree to take it which is likely to be the biggest barrier from the idiots we're seeing at the moment.

 

[sammsky1]

How Toilet Paper Companies Dealt With The 845% Demand Spike

 

[11101]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Good thread on what looks like first bone fide example of reinfection (viruses sequenced and second virus different strain to first)

Really quite good news in many ways. It's the very first confirmed reinfection after almost 25 million cases, and the effect of the virus is much reduced from the first bout.

It would be good to know how contagious they were the second time too.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Good article on this topic.

 

[calodo2003]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[redshaw]

UK 16 deaths 1184 cases

 

[Libano]

How to fabricate cases:

1. Use a test that marks any coronavirus (rhino/covid-19/influenza etc) as positive. Check.
2. Use a test with a 2% false positive rate (i.e. testing 1000 healthy individuals will result in 20 positive cases) and ramp up testing. Check.

The only metric that matters is hospitalisations and people dying of (not just with) Covid 19. These numbers are way down everywhere.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Sweden discovered today that a CE marked test from China had been giving false positives, 4000 people are being called to tell them that they in fact did not have a positive Covid-19 test.

https://www.thelocal.se/20200825/sw...00-people-test-false-positive-for-coronavirus

Hospitalisations should absolutely be the main tool we use.

 

[Libano]

Our strategy used to be 'flatten the curve', which means keeping society as open as possible while riding the threshold of what our health care systems could handle. Meanwhile, build up herd immunity. Well, hospitals are empty. Apparently the goal post has moved.

 

[Sweet Square]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

The inconsistency of the UK approach is staggering

 

[Pogue Mahone]

How to fabricate cases:

1. Use a test that marks any coronavirus (rhino/covid-19/influenza etc) as positive. Check.
2. Use a test with a 2% false positive rate (i.e. testing 1000 healthy individuals will result in 20 positive cases) and ramp up testing. Check.

The only metric that matters is hospitalisations and people dying of (not just with) Covid 19. These numbers are way down everywhere.

Based on your post in the QAnon thread you’re one of those “do your homework, don’t trust the MSM” people.

Tonight, your homework is googling “coronavirus” and reading about the difference between coronaviruses, rhinoviruses and influenza viruses. Different viruses. With very accurate tests that can tell the difference between them.

Once you’ve educated yourself, do the world a favour and spread the word amongst whatever conspiracy gonks managed to fill you full of wildly inaccurate information.

 

[Ish]

Based on your post in the QAnon thread you’re one of those “do your homework, don’t trust the MSM” people.

Tonight, your homework is googling “coronavirus” and reading about the difference between coronaviruses, rhinoviruses and influenza viruses. Different viruses. With very accurate tests that can tell the difference between them.

Once you’ve educated yourself, do the world a favour and spread the word amongst whatever conspiracy gonks managed to fill you full of wildly inaccurate information.

ouch Pogue

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Which test/country are you referring to? The RT-PCR + nasopharyngeal swab that is the gold standard in most diagnostic labs is specific for SARS-COV-2 and does not “mark any coronavirus as positive”. I work in a diagnostic lab. Are you implying numbers are being falsely inflated for political reasons? Or some other reason?

I don’t agree that the only metric that matters is hospitalisations. If you can track positive cases by numbers, location, and demographics, you can predict how the number of hospitalisations will change. You can also make sure people aren’t walking around spreading the disease, by getting them to isolate. Without testing we are blind. Doctors have got better at treating COVID-19, but if it gets into aged care, or generally populations of people 60+ we will still see hospitalisations and unfortunately deaths go up.

There is an argument that the RT-PCR test is more sensitive than required, that it picks up such small amounts of virus that it doesn’t reflect whether a person is infectious or not. There are lower sensitivity, cheaper tests that could potentially be used by everyone at a workplace/school etc. a couple of times a week in order to try and eliminate infectious people spreading the virus. Long term, if the virus can not be eliminated (as in NZ and parts of Aus) I think we should be moving towards this model. See this article for more info

That article is really interesting. Thanks for sharing.

 

[Libano]

Based on your post in the QAnon thread you’re one of those “do your homework, don’t trust the MSM” people.

Tonight, your homework is googling “coronavirus” and reading about the difference between coronaviruses, rhinoviruses and influenza viruses. Different viruses. With very accurate tests that can tell the difference between them.

Once you’ve educated yourself, do the world a favour and spread the word amongst whatever conspiracy gonks managed to fill you full of wildly inaccurate information.

At least share some sources to support your counter argument. Here’s what I am referring to with regards to the scientific inaccuracy of PCR testing:

https://off-guardian.org/2020/06/27/covid19-pcr-tests-are-scientifically-meaningless/

In short, the test is looking for pieces of RNA sequence that are not even unique to Covid 19. That’s like looking for vitamin C in a food sample to prove it’s an apple.