Just seen some stats which suggests, relatively, we are testing more than other countries. It’s such a shame that capability hasn’t been supported by competent strategy and infrastructure.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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Also wonder how significant this new strain stuff will be.
My in-laws are like that, the eldest was called first. He’s in his 80s, she’s in her 70s
Same concern here
That's what I suspected cheers.
I'm not sure it is actually a new strain and not just a variant of which there a few.
Not saying this variant isn't more infectious (but no more dangerous) but the cynic in me does think that it is a convenient narrative for the government to say a new "strain" is responsible for stage 3 lockdown in London.
I think Manchester will stay Tier 3
They need to close the bloody schools. It’s running absolutely rampant through nearly every school.
Its also really strange how it seems this is something that’s been known for a few weeks yet is only making its way public now. Which doesn’t make sense.
It's mostly spin to help sell an unpopular decision. If that's what it takes let's go along with it, if it's the correct decision that's what matters.
Boris: I'm not an incompetent buffoon. The virus did it. Honest. You can trust me.
That means they won't.
Schools going for the herd immunity approach.
Genius.
Quick question to the doctors/medical scientists in here: can we be absolutely sure that these vaccines are significantly safer than the swine flu vaccines from 2009? I know a guy who took the swine flu vaccine back then who got narcolepsy. Needless to say he's a little shook and considering not taking this vaccine.
@Stanley Road - If they don't, I've found this Dutch site that sells it.
https://www.huisdierenbazaar.nl/hond/hondenvoer/adult/filter/canagan.html
Winter is coming for house Johnson.
Short answer: no.
That particular manufacturer's vaccine saw a doubling in the narcolepsy rate, amongst those who took it, it went up to 1:50000 as opposed to 1:100000 who would get diagnosed with it in a normal year. In a clinical trial - statistically speaking at that level, you might not see any cases of it at all, and you won't have enough cases to see a pattern.
Longer answer: in countries where swine flu spread rapidly, the rate of narcolepsy cases also went up and at a similar rate.
It's important to note that the reason why that story is discussed is that it is because it's a rarity. There have been hundreds of new vaccine formulations since then, and billions of vaccinations. Serious vaccine side-effects are rare, that's why the same incidents are talked about a lot.
It's like a lot of things in life unfortunately - there's a risk analysis to be done. We know the lack of a vaccine has already killed about 1:1000 of the population in the UK, and that's despite us living with some pretty miserable restrictions. I don't believe any approved vaccine will kill or cause longterm harm to 1:1000 of the people taking it, I don't even believe it will do it to 1:10000.
Beyond that (as we start to talk about 1:100000 or 1 in a million) we won't know for sure until more people take it. We do know what will happen if people keep getting covid though - a lot of deaths, a massive overload on the health service, and a large number of people with long-lasting illness.
Well said.
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Government obsession with keeping schools open is pathetic. Killing people every day by doing it.
What day is it that the Tier system is re-evaluated for Manchester? Does anybody know?
Apparently its not the schools!!!!! Its people popping round to their families homes for a brew
Tomorrow, I believe.
It's 16 December for the tier review, and 3 February for a potential 'sunset' on tiers altogether.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55118467
Fantastic - I cant wait to get into tier 2. After months and months of depression it will be a huge lift of morale!
Delusion of the highest order. They wheel out the data that says infection is low in schools but isn’t actually impossible to know that if kids are not showing symptoms? Teachers test rates are low but that’s probably because they’re able to keep their distance with all the mask wearing etc. Kids are giving it to each other without even knowing it then going home and spreading it there. At that point it won’t be known exactly where it’s came from.Apparently its not the schools!!!!! Its people popping round to their families homes for a brew
Be staying in 3 I think
The Christmas relaxations were always stupid. But in the light of the US Thanksgiving outcome and the increased cases here, it will be negligence of the government for not revising their arrangements.
Why five days?
Why five days?
That's my guess as well. Having places open up just before Christmas through into the New Year, and then families meeting up over Christmas just sounds like a recipe for a truly grim January. If things go well over Christmas then opening up in January and staying open sounds like a much nicer option. Though even that might be wishful thinking, but it would be preferable, if we can achieve it.
Fingers crossed for all those vaccines that are in the pipeline and the ones that are already scheduled for rollout - at least they give me hope.
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Dunno if they share the same data in the UK but one of the pieces of information they’re using in Ireland is the positivity rate. Symptoms or not (and teens will get symptoms almost as often as adults) kids are still going to get tested, even if it’s only as close contacts with confirmed cases (e.g. if one of their family gets covid) and the % positive tests with school-kids was lower than it was for adults.
That was a while ago, though. I don’t know if its changed. And I don’t know what the UK data looks like.
Yeah it seems totally logical especially with the moving of London and the South into 3.
Can't the see value in making such changes now to be honest. Christmas and New Year are just around the corner and the furlough scheme is still in place. It makes sense to tighten things up or at least maintain what we have and get through the holiday season and then see where we are at.
The ONS collect data from a large random sample of the population every week, irrespective of symptoms reported or positive tests of. Available here. Imperial do another one.
Primary school kids have a positivity rate of around 1%, in line with 25-34 and 35-44 year olds and below uni age kids, but it has been rising in December.
Secondary school kids now have the highest positivity rate of 2%, while college / uni age fell down from 2.3% in mid-November to 1.3% in December. Uni folks are still infected more often than all older age groups but its coming back in line, while secondary school kids are essentially infected 2x as often as their parents, and 3-5x as often as their grandparents.
None of that suggests that schools are a disproportionately likely place for super-spreader events, you would still expect more super spreader events to have happened given the amount of time they spend in there and the limited precautions available. But they are an opportunity for transmission that isn't available to other age groups, and it's quite likely that poorly ventilated schools have went to unventilated schools as the cold started to bite. And then hanging out afterwards somewhere indoors.
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If the kids aren't in school then the parents have to look after them and not work, killing the economy which is what its all about really for them.
Ok, interesting. It does seem a bit nuts that we aren’t at least extending school xmas holidays. In Ireland they’ve done the opposite. Our kids (primary school) would usually finish up this week but they’re going back in next week until Wednesday (which I think is helping catch up on days missed during first lockdown?) Thus giving them a grand total of 48 hours between a day in the classroom and a day with their granny and grandad!
British Government minister says ‘"We've got to trust the British people to act responsibly and do the minimum that is possible for them in their family situation”.
This is the same British public whose behaviours have engineered amongst the very highest density of deaths per population on the planet.
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I've spoken to a few people who live abroad about their situation.British Government minister says ‘"We've got to trust the British people to act responsibly and do the minimum that is possible for them in their family situation”.
This is the same British public whose behaviours have engineered amongst the very highest density of deaths per population on the planet.
They'll say restaurants and clubs and cinemas remain open, but nobody goes and most people choose to stay away from places by choice.
It is curious how we seem to have the attitude to flock places as soon as they open. But then, i can't say i'm guilt-free. I can't wait to do things again.