SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[F-Red]

This is the same British public whose behaviours have engineered amongst the very highest density of deaths per population on the planet.

That's quite the statement.

 

[mitChley]

I completely understand why they would review Christmas, but I hope they don't change it. To pull away being able to see family after not not seeing some of them all year at this short notice would be brutal.

 

[acnumber9]

I've spoken to a few people who live abroad about their situation.

They'll say restaurants and clubs and cinemas remain open, but nobody goes and most people choose to stay away from places by choice.

It is curious how we seem to have the attitude to flock places as soon as they open. But then, i can't say i'm guilt-free. I can't wait to do things again.

A lot of that will be driven by the knowledge that they will close again at the drop of a hat. So people will see it as their one opportunity. I think opening and closing again is only making things worse. They need to make a decision and stick with it.

 

[jojojo]

I completely understand why they would review Christmas, but I hope they don't change it. To pull away being able to see family after not not seeing some of them all year at this short notice would be brutal.

I don't think they will - if only because enforcement would be a massive issue. Can you imagine the reaction if a granny got fined for having both daughters visit over Christmas.

I suspect we'll get a fudge, but I'm hoping it comes with clear (and obvious) guidance, things like:
If you're meeting on Christmas Day avoid everything (the pub, the gym, the crowded shopping centre)
and everybody for the week before.
If you have to go to work, keep away from your colleagues, sit near the open window, wear a mask.
Avoid overnight stops, if you have to stay overnight check the instructions on sharing bathroom/kitchen space etc.
Open the windows as often as you can or as much as you can.
If you can - avoid staying in the same room together for long periods.
Any symptoms - cancel the meetup, even if they happen on the day you're expected to traveller or once you're together (I reckon most people will find this is the hardest)
or something like that...

 

[Pogue Mahone]

A lot of that will be driven by the knowledge that they will close again at the drop of a hat. So people will see it as their one opportunity. I think opening and closing again is only making things worse. They need to make a decision and stick with it.

You can only stick with it so far though. Look at Germany. Just had to close all shops the week before Christmas. Having closed restaurants/bars a few weeks before that.

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

I completely understand why they would review Christmas, but I hope they don't change it. To pull away being able to see family after not not seeing some of them all year at this short notice would be brutal.

So you chose not to see them when the infection rate was low, but you want to see them when infection rates are higher than they’ve ever been in many places.

You need to think long and hard about how you come to decisions like this.

I recognise that times have been tough. I appreciate the desire for you to see your family.

But you’re looking logic in the face and asking if it’s ok to piss on it. Or worse, you’ll piss on it if Boris tells you it’s ok.

Unless you’ve got some really robust isolation protocols in place for all attendees, are all healthy, and will be meeting in a space that’s extremely well ventilated, large enough to maintain distance at all times.... do not go and meet your family mate.

Don’t wait for this inept corrupt bunch to tell you what’s safe for your family. They don’t care if any of them die.

You’ve got 7-10 days to get all of your gang on board with something safe. Start today. Be honest with everyone, including yourself.

People should not be mixing inside homes for the next month or so, if not longer. We all know that. Some will do it anyway. Some safely. Some not.

Be safe. Be smarter than the Government.

 

[Smores]

They know damn well with 10 days to go that plans will have been made and that people will do it anyway. If they come out with new restrictions now it's just so they can once again blame the public and try avoid any themselves.

 

[Stanley Road]

@Stanley Road - If they don't, I've found this Dutch site that sells it.
https://www.huisdierenbazaar.nl/hond/hondenvoer/adult/filter/canagan.html

Thanks but i noticed the pet shop was open when we drove past, must be on the essential list.

 

[mitChley]

So you chose not to see them when the infection rate was low, but you want to see them when infection rates are higher than they’ve ever been in many places.

You need to think long and hard about how you come to decisions like this.

Condescending much? You know precisely zero about the reasons why we couldn't see them when cases were low.
I'm not a child, I don't need your tone.

 

[sammsky1]

Condescending much? You know precisely zero about the reasons why we couldn't see them when cases were low.
I'm not a child, I don't need your tone.

I don’t think he was being condescending at all. In fact you should feel honoured someone cares enough to give you some advice!

 

[BluesJr]

Condescending much? You know precisely zero about the reasons why we couldn't see them when cases were low.
I'm not a child, I don't need your tone.

He wasn't being condescending in any way. If you think seeing family is a good idea right now then nothing anyone can say is going to help you.

 

[golden_blunder]

Ok, interesting. It does seem a bit nuts that we aren’t at least extending school xmas holidays. In Ireland they’ve done the opposite. Our kids (primary school) would usually finish up this week but they’re going back in next week until Wednesday (which I think is helping catch up on days missed during first lockdown?) Thus giving them a grand total of 48 hours between a day in the classroom and a day with their granny and grandad!

It’s absolute nonsense. In my school alone, there’s been 3 cases amongst staff in the last 14 days resulting in 2 classes being closed. The teachers morale is not good and everyone is tired. This government want to flog every last day out of them just because Martin promised schools would stay open.
This week they have no homework because they are “winding down”, then next week they are in for a day and a half. What’s the point? Give the teachers a break and close the bloody things this Friday, but no, you must come in next week to do feck all

 

[golden_blunder]

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I hope they all tell penfold to do one. The slimy little rat

 

[golden_blunder]

So you chose not to see them when the infection rate was low, but you want to see them when infection rates are higher than they’ve ever been in many places.

You need to think long and hard about how you come to decisions like this.

I recognise that times have been tough. I appreciate the desire for you to see your family.

But you’re looking logic in the face and asking if it’s ok to piss on it. Or worse, you’ll piss on it if Boris tells you it’s ok.

Unless you’ve got some really robust isolation protocols in place for all attendees, are all healthy, and will be meeting in a space that’s extremely well ventilated, large enough to maintain distance at all times.... do not go and meet your family mate.

Don’t wait for this inept corrupt bunch to tell you what’s safe for your family. They don’t care if any of them die.

You’ve got 7-10 days to get all of your gang on board with something safe. Start today. Be honest with everyone, including yourself.

People should not be mixing inside homes for the next month or so, if not longer. We all know that. Some will do it anyway. Some safely. Some not.

Be safe. Be smarter than the Government.

Excellent advise. Stick that on a yellow poster Boris!

 

[Nytram Shakes]

It very clear that the county is not in a position where it should be relaxing the rules over Christmas. It's also very clear that the UK population wouldn't accept not being allowed to see family over Xmas, I mean even vulnerable people I know are planning on stretching(*Cough* breaking *Cough*) the relaxed rules for the xmas period. So while I think the government are idiots and have made a mess of the whole thing from start to finish, But I think the blame for the coming Christmas fiasco lies 90% with the general British population. Of course, us British people will still blame the government and never accept any blame our selves as that is unfortunately what we do in this country.

I dunno if anyone here lives in Germany? From what I understand they have infection rates lower than ours and are going into lockdown and the population seems to be accepting of it? Am I wrong? Cos I just can't imagine British people accepting of it.

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

Condescending much? You know precisely zero about the reasons why we couldn't see them when cases were low.
I'm not a child, I don't need your tone.

Read the whole post and perhaps stop reacting like a child.

I didn’t accuse you of anything. I’ve empathised across the board. If the opening lines read as snarky they’re sure as shit balanced out by what followed.

I’m on YOUR side.

 

[horsechoker]

It very clear that the county is not in a position where it should be relaxing the rules over Christmas. It's also very clear that the UK population wouldn't accept not being allowed to see family over Xmas, I mean even vulnerable people I know are planning on stretching(*Cough* breaking *Cough*) the relaxed rules for the xmas period. So while I think the government are idiots and have made a mess of the whole thing from start to finish, But I think the blame for the coming Christmas fiasco lies 90% with the general British population. Of course, us British people will still blame the government and never accept any blame our selves as that is unfortunately what we do in this country.

I dunno if anyone here lives in Germany? From what I understand they have infection rates lower than ours and are going into lockdown and the population seems to be accepting of it? Am I wrong? Cos I just can't imagine British people accepting of it.

I agree with everything you say.

 

[Smores]

It very clear that the county is not in a position where it should be relaxing the rules over Christmas. It's also very clear that the UK population wouldn't accept not being allowed to see family over Xmas, I mean even vulnerable people I know are planning on stretching(*Cough* breaking *Cough*) the relaxed rules for the xmas period. So while I think the government are idiots and have made a mess of the whole thing from start to finish, But I think the blame for the coming Christmas fiasco lies 90% with the general British population. Of course, us British people will still blame the government and never accept any blame our selves as that is unfortunately what we do in this country.

I dunno if anyone here lives in Germany? From what I understand they have infection rates lower than ours and are going into lockdown and the population seems to be accepting of it? Am I wrong? Cos I just can't imagine British people accepting of it.

That only works once, the government had more than enough data to know relaxing the rules and relying on common sense would cause this situation. Are the selfish idiots mostly to blame? Of course. Is the government to blame for not stopping the idiots ruining it for the rest of us? Absolutely.

That said there's plenty of moments that are fully on the government. Trying to push people back in offices, the eat out to catch covid scheme, the tier system messaging. They've been a shambles, the furlough payments were the only thing they've done right and they still managed to cock that up for the North.

 

[Nytram Shakes]

That only works once, the government had more than enough data to know relaxing the rules and relying on common sense would cause this situation. Are the selfish idiots mostly to blame? Of course. Is the government to blame for not stopping the idiots ruining it for the rest of us? Absolutely.

That said there's plenty of moments that are fully on the government. Trying to push people back in offices, the eat out to catch covid scheme, the tier system messaging. They've been a shambles, the furlough payments were the only thing they've done right and they still managed to cock that up for the North.

But the vast majority of people are being selfish can you imagine the outcry if the government said no 2 households are allowed to meet inside during xmas, (which probably should be the rule) It just wouldn't be accepted. Even most right-minded people I know don't seem to want to hear they can't see everyone they want to at xmas. The 'us' are in a tiny minorty, the vast majority of people will break the rules whatever they are over xmas. And when the vast majoirty of the population wants to do something, you have to blame the population, not the government.

The rest of your comments I agree with, though I think the government has been far to swayed by public opinion throughout the pandemic its seems to make its policy depending on who is complaining the loudest on any one given day. which has lead to an absolute mess. But year Furlough scheme one thing they have vaguely got right.

 

[Sparky Rhiwabon]

Too short notice to change the Xmas rules now - plans have been made, food bought, etc.

 

[Brwned]

Too short notice to change the Xmas rules now - plans have been made, food bought, etc.

Changing plans and throwing away food sounds like a relatively small sacrifice vs accelerating an already growing spread at a time when hospital staff are desperately worried about managing the usual winter peak with an incoming covid peak.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

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More info on the mutation discussed by Hand Cock. Or “distractus londinium” as per one of the tweets responding.

 

[acnumber9]

You can only stick with it so far though. Look at Germany. Just had to close all shops the week before Christmas. Having closed restaurants/bars a few weeks before that.

Yeah I get that too. But the yo yoing in the UK can’t be helping. It’s a difficult choice to make but the way we’re doing it in Northern Ireland feels like the worst of both worlds at the minute.

 

[massi83]

Changing plans and throwing away food sounds like a relatively small sacrifice vs accelerating an already growing spread at a time when hospital staff are desperately worried about managing the usual winter peak with an incoming covid peak.

Is there/will there be usual winter peak this year in UK? Anyone have the stats so far? In Finland we have had 16 influenza cases so far, compared to around 1.000 cases this time last year. Obviously timing of the peaks vary from year to year a lot.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Is there/will there be usual winter peak this year in UK? Anyone have the stats so far? In Finland we have had 16 influenza cases so far, compared to around 1.000 cases this time last year. Obviously timing of the peaks vary from year to year a lot.

Common sense tells us there won’t be the usual winter influenza peak. And we’ve already seen this happen in the Southern hemisphere.

 

[tombombadil]

Winter is coming for house Johnson.

One can only hope.

 

[Eugenius]

UK government should have focused on getting cases right down if they wanted Christmas to be fairly free. But too wedded to keeping schools open and too scared of the backlash from the right wing of the Tory party in having an extended lockdown.

 

[SilentWitness]

What Bruce has just said about those two Newcastle players not doing well at all has reiterated to me just how bad this virus is. Two elite athletes compared to your average joe.

 

[massi83]

Common sense tells us there won’t be the usual winter influenza peak. And we’ve already seen this happen in the Southern hemisphere.

Well obviously it should be different, I am wondering how different, since there are too many contacts between people in many countries. Numbers would be nice. And can't use data from Aus/Nz as they had far stricter restrictions and basicly no travel at all. If there is data from South America or South Africa then that's more comparable.

 

[Smores]

But the vast majority of people are being selfish can you imagine the outcry if the government said no 2 households are allowed to meet inside during xmas, (which probably should be the rule) It just wouldn't be accepted. Even most right-minded people I know don't seem to want to hear they can't see everyone they want to at xmas. The 'us' are in a tiny minorty, the vast majority of people will break the rules whatever they are over xmas. And when the vast majoirty of the population wants to do something, you have to blame the population, not the government.

The rest of your comments I agree with, though I think the government has been far to swayed by public opinion throughout the pandemic its seems to make its policy depending on who is complaining the loudest on any one given day. which has lead to an absolute mess. But year Furlough scheme one thing they have vaguely got right.

But the governments mistake isn't the christmas period it's the lead up to it. All the experts said the lower tiers weren't enough to stop a rise and yet here we are talking about numbers being too high and what a crisis it will be when everyone ignores measures over Christmas.

If the government had put in harsher measures earlier as many health experts suggested then rates would have been low enough to reduce the risk.

The governments job isn't just to set rules and hope people comply. It's to take mitigating actions as necessary and they've failed.

As for not allowing people to see family over Christmas it's too much of an ask out of 'social good' when this was caused by government and other people. The best you can do is to focus on getting people not to spread it to at risk family members and take precautions.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Well obviously it should be different, I am wondering how different, since there are too many contacts between people in many countries. Numbers would be nice. And can't use data from Aus/Nz as they had far stricter restrictions and basicly no travel at all. If there is data from South America or South Africa then that's more comparable.

I remember wondering about South American winter experiences during June/July/August and couldn’t find anything useful.

 

[Dante]

And yet I see feck all on the media or news there about how bad it is, even on the BBC it's barely mentioned. Yet when Italy and Spain were at their peak all your saw was stories about the horror over there. Shocking.

Italy has overtaken the UK again for most deaths in Europe. Barely anything in the media about it. The BBC haven't even covered it.

 

[Wibble]

Common sense tells us there won’t be the usual winter influenza peak. And we’ve already seen this happen in the Southern hemisphere.

In mid winter we had 400 fewer deaths per month this year. Partly lockdown and masks/distancing and part a bigger flu vaccine uptake - shots ordered rose from 7.2m in 2017 to 18m this year.

 

[Brwned]

Is there/will there be usual winter peak this year in UK? Anyone have the stats so far? In Finland we have had 16 influenza cases so far, compared to around 1.000 cases this time last year. Obviously timing of the peaks vary from year to year a lot.

I wouldn't think so, but I would consider the nurses and doctors' worries to be legitimate all the same. Their worst-case scenario seems very unlikely from my perspective, but given how bad that worst case scenario is, I can understand why they are asking for a Christmas lockdown to minimise that possibility. It's still an unknown how people are going to act over Christmas, which leaves open the possibility of a significant sudden spike that has just been artificially maintained by social distancing.

For the UK, the last that was said about influenza was in this report from last week which said:

Surveillance indicators suggest that COVID-19 activity at a national level has plateaued during week 49. There is currently limited testing for other respiratory viruses, however, laboratory indicators suggest that influenza activity is low.

Also...

Influenza vaccine uptake is 78.5% in people aged 65 years + which is the highest uptake ever achieved. Uptake in 2 and 3 year children is the highest ever recorded. For those in at-risk groups uptake is higher than the same time in the last three seasons. For pregnant women uptake is higher than the same time last season

But yeah I don't know of any wider data!

 

[Camilo]

I think it's very sad that we haven't managed to take personal responsibility for this whole thing yet, it's still "please government, tell us what to do" and "that person's a twat for not doing things my way".

Shows how shite our society is really, too busy sniffing our own shit to actually improve. Right, I'm off for a few beers round me nans.

 

[Jericholyte2]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55325621

Well! Who didn’t see this coming...

• Give everyone a month of Christmas spending, thinking they’ll be able to spend it with their families
• A week or two beforehand let it be known they’ll need to strengthen the Christmas rules but be non-committal about it
• By the end of this week / Monday they confirm that, following the science, they cannot allow households to mix again

 

[Tibs]

Reckon we'll be staying in Tier 3 tomorrow, which I would support.

 

[Pexbo]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55325621

Well! Who didn’t see this coming...

• Give everyone a month of Christmas spending, thinking they’ll be able to spend it with their families
• A week or two beforehand let it be known they’ll need to strengthen the Christmas rules but be non-committal about it
• By the end of this week / Monday they confirm that, following the science, they cannot allow households to mix again

It’s what they have done all along.

1. Everything is going to be great, you can all do what you want.

2. Well actually that’s a bad idea the science shows that’s a bad idea but we are not going to stop you although we are going to plead with you to be considerate and as safe in your actions as possible.

3. Well would you look at that huge huge spike, we did our best to tell you but you have completely ignored our advice and this is all your fault and all on you.

 

[Wibble]

Short answer: no.
That particular manufacturer's vaccine saw a doubling in the narcolepsy rate, amongst those who took it, it went up to 1:50000 as opposed to 1:100000 who would get diagnosed with it in a normal year. In a clinical trial - statistically speaking at that level, you might not see any cases of it at all, and you won't have enough cases to see a pattern.

Longer answer: in countries where swine flu spread rapidly, the rate of narcolepsy cases also went up and at a similar rate.

It's important to note that the reason why that story is discussed is that it is because it's a rarity. There have been hundreds of new vaccine formulations since then, and billions of vaccinations. Serious vaccine side-effects are rare, that's why the same incidents are talked about a lot.

It's like a lot of things in life unfortunately - there's a risk analysis to be done. We know the lack of a vaccine has already killed about 1:1000 of the population in the UK, and that's despite us living with some pretty miserable restrictions. I don't believe any approved vaccine will kill or cause longterm harm to 1:1000 of the people taking it, I don't even believe it will do it to 1:10000.

Beyond that (as we start to talk about 1:100000 or 1 in a million) we won't know for sure until more people take it. We do know what will happen if people keep getting covid though - a lot of deaths, a massive overload on the health service, and a large number of people with long-lasting illness.

I think that was traced back to an adjutant that we have stopped using so a reoccurrence is unlikely, but even if it wasn't I'd take a very slightly increased chance of getting narcolepsy over the very high risk of getting severe symptoms from covid. And of course there is a 50:50 chance that the person who got narcolepsy would have got it anyway.

 

[sammsky1]

What’s the point of all this intense UK Government and media discussion on what will and won’t be allowed over XMAS when whatever is decided won’t be policed or legally enforced anyway?