SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Pogue Mahone]

It is, but I don't think the publicly available data is at a granular enough level to link to particular areas. There is substantial evidence that there's less uptake in a number of BAME communities, and you can infer something by linking that to local demographics, but it's a problem without an obvious good solution. Someone suggested sending vaccination teams door to door, but I think that might just make things worse - if you're already skeptical, strangers banging on your door is probably not that reassuring.

It’s going to be a really important but really tough nut to crack. I guess you just have to engage with local community leaders and go from there.

 

[africanspur]

I think there are a lot of problems with vaccine passports

It discriminates on various fronts, for example-

Against people of ethnic minority, who are less likely to take up the vaccine for cultural and historical reasons
Against people with health conditions which makes it difficult to take the vaccine
Against younger people on the basis of age
Against people who may choose not to take the vaccine for a variety of reasons including distrust of government, phobia of injections, logistical difficulties, etc

To be honest, I'm struggling a bit at the moment to feel that much sympathy for the first group. I understand mistrust of authority but go and educate yourself, especially when it disproportionately affects your community. I've seen groups of African, Indian and Phillipino nurses at work huddled round videos of some random quacks talking about how the vaccine is a ploy by white people to control us/ sterilise us. I engage as best I can but honestly its infuriating. Of course the PH approach needs to be much more than just general annoyance but its still annoying.

Younger people on the age bothers me for now but when we get to the stage where everyone has been offered the vaccine, if you've decided to turn it down, then the sympathy level again drops down quite a bit. Was talking to someone last week who is talking about how she isn't going to have the vaccine (in her 30s) as she believes in natural solutions to things and doesn't want to take medicines and seek medical help because nature always has the way. I bit my lip about the fact she is currently seeking the most medical way to have a baby at the moment as nature has decided that her and her husband aren't to have a baby in the normal way. What can you do?

 

[jojojo]

You’d also wonder if differences in vaccine uptake between different regions could be a factor. If not now, then soon. Is that data available?

Right now, we know that a lower percentage of the population have been vaccinated in London compared to the north. London's figures have fallen faster and further than the North.

As time goes on, I think we'll see particular areas struggling over vaccination take-up, but I don't think that's what we're seeing in case numbers at the moment. It could affect some areas more than others on the future, but I think you'd need to have vaccination data on a really local level to see that.

The broad current pattern seems to be similar to the September one - some combination of jobs that require you to go to a workplace, precarious/grey economy employment, use of informal care for kids, and insufficient support for self isolation etc. Throw in household unit sizes and that's probably the current story.

 

[Raoul]

Looks like this is happening here

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[One Night Only]

In regards to people not taking the vaccine, it's upto them totally, hasn't this been massively rushed through anyway? Even I've got slight reservations about it due to how quickly it got approved when there was talk of it normally taking much much longer.

I'd probably get it anyway, but I can see why some won't. I ain't an anti Vax nut job who thinks bill gates wants to montior how many wanks I have a day.

 

[Wolverine]

To be honest, I'm struggling a bit at the moment to feel that much sympathy for the first group. I understand mistrust of authority but go and educate yourself, especially when it disproportionately affects your community. I've seen groups of African, Indian and Phillipino nurses at work huddled round videos of some random quacks talking about how the vaccine is a ploy by white people to control us/ sterilise us. I engage as best I can but honestly its infuriating. Of course the PH approach needs to be much more than just general annoyance but its still annoying.

Younger people on the age bothers me for now but when we get to the stage where everyone has been offered the vaccine, if you've decided to turn it down, then the sympathy level again drops down quite a bit. Was talking to someone last week who is talking about how she isn't going to have the vaccine (in her 30s) as she believes in natural solutions to things and doesn't want to take medicines and seek medical help because nature always has the way. I bit my lip about the fact she is currently seeking the most medical way to have a baby at the moment as nature has decided that her and her husband aren't to have a baby in the normal way. What can you do?

I'm slightly forceful with it now and am finding out how to deal with it better because I have knowledge of the nonsense and therefore know how to combat it better.

I work at a practice with a lot of south asian patients, we went on a popular local radio station to answer some misconceptions. Changed a lot of minds, more than we thought we would. The misinformation around this thing is insane spread around whatsapp but your word and standing as a medical professional does carry more weight than you think.

Plandemic, great reset etc. Some of that shit honestly has more snazzy production values, infographics and voiceovers than even the loose change 9-11 inside job documentaries. To people not familiar with conspiracy theorism it can be a bit of a rabbit hole to fall down under. I've annoyingly had a few medic and scientist friends who are vaccine hesitant. I think we need more effective ways to combat misinformation too, they had load of famous BAME celebs talking slightly monotonously and dispassionately I just didn't think would cut it (as good as their intentions were).

 

[Wolverine]

A big problem I feel also is that aside from a smallish group of adults (although slightly larger number of over 65s) apart from the flu many didn't have to get a vaccine for any reasons. Most of the ones they got were as kids or for their kids (some of the newer ones are for teens) so they were ripe for misinformers to target to induce hesitancy.

 

[RonaldoVII]

In regards to people not taking the vaccine, it's upto them totally, hasn't this been massively rushed through anyway? Even I've got slight reservations about it due to how quickly it got approved when there was talk of it normally taking much much longer.

I'd probably get it anyway, but I can see why some won't. I ain't an anti Vax nut job who thinks bill gates wants to montior how many wanks I have a day.

They usually take years but most of that is waiting for funding/approval, submitting requests etc. With Covid, the whole world is right on it throwing as much money on it as possible so the waiting times have been massively reduced and there's more volunteers than some random vaccine.

 

[Wibble]

In regards to people not taking the vaccine, it's upto them totally, hasn't this been massively rushed through anyway? Even I've got slight reservations about it due to how quickly it got approved when there was talk of it normally taking much much longer.

No. There are no extra safety concerns in comparison to any other vaccine. They went through normal phase 3 testing.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

They usually take years but most of that is waiting for funding/approval, submitting requests etc. With Covid, the whole world is right on it throwing as much money on it as possible so the waiting times have been massively reduced and there's more volunteers than some random vaccine.

Agreed. No amount of funding can replace long term trials though.

 

[giggs-beckham]

There's a good piece in the MEN on it. Essential workers and those in precarious employment having to go out and mix with others is likely a big part of why rates in some places seem to never come down as far. Hopefully the evidence that the vaccines are cutting transmission can help with the push to keep the numbers dropping.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.c...-news/north-south-divide-covid-rates-19918490

Wouldn't that have always been the case as in why would we see a gradual levelling out as we are now. It's probably because people are starting to take the piss a bit more as is predicted in behaviour models or more testing.

 

[Salt Bailly]

With regards to vaccine passports, I can see places like bars/restaurants and stadiums being split into restricted and non-restricted areas, with the former maintaining current levels of social distancing and masks.

 

[Judas]

I'd think a certain level of social distancing albeit smaller and mask wearing will be maintained for the rest of the year. I'll certainly keep wearing a mask in some public places.

 

[lynchie]

Wouldn't that have always been the case as in why would we see a gradual levelling out as we are now. It's probably because people are starting to take the piss a bit more as is predicted in behaviour models or more testing.

Not at all. With the lockdown, most people have seriously reduced their contact with others, which is why cases came down rapidly. But there's a baseline of people who can't do that because of their circumstances, and so there's a low point that we'll continue to struggle to drop below, unless we actually pay people to stay home with proper isolation support and temporarily close some less critical businesses.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Not at all. With the lockdown, most people have seriously reduced their contact with others, which is why cases came down rapidly. But there's a baseline of people who can't do that because of their circumstances, and so there's a low point that we'll continue to struggle to drop below, unless we actually pay people to stay home with proper isolation support and temporarily close some less critical businesses.

Don’t you think this lockdown is different to the previous ones? It is where I live. Shops, restaurants etc all closed but much more traffic on the roads, offices are busier, more people are out and about and there’s generally more willingness to bend the rules.

I don’t blame us though. Everyone is so jaded by this whole thing. Plus when we hear about the most vulnerable being vaccinated it makes the pandemic seem less threatening. Combine that with a more virulent, more contagious virus and you can see why the downwards slops of cases is a hell of a lot bumpier and less steep than it was during previous lockdowns.

That’s what’s happening in Ireland anyway. We’re taking a longer to get numbers right down than we have done in previous lockdowns. With a less constant downward trend. Numbers even came down quicker when we tried regional partial lockdowns with schools remaining open.

How does this UK decline compare?

 

[giggs-beckham]

Not at all. With the lockdown, most people have seriously reduced their contact with others, which is why cases came down rapidly. But there's a baseline of people who can't do that because of their circumstances, and so there's a low point that we'll continue to struggle to drop below, unless we actually pay people to stay home with proper isolation support and temporarily close some less critical businesses.

I see so there's a natural curve towards that base line.

 

[Garethw]

To be honest, I'm struggling a bit at the moment to feel that much sympathy for the first group. I understand mistrust of authority but go and educate yourself, especially when it disproportionately affects your community. I've seen groups of African, Indian and Phillipino nurses at work huddled round videos of some random quacks talking about how the vaccine is a ploy by white people to control us/ sterilise us. I engage as best I can but honestly its infuriating. Of course the PH approach needs to be much more than just general annoyance but its still annoying.

Younger people on the age bothers me for now but when we get to the stage where everyone has been offered the vaccine, if you've decided to turn it down, then the sympathy level again drops down quite a bit. Was talking to someone last week who is talking about how she isn't going to have the vaccine (in her 30s) as she believes in natural solutions to things and doesn't want to take medicines and seek medical help because nature always has the way. I bit my lip about the fact she is currently seeking the most medical way to have a baby at the moment as nature has decided that her and her husband aren't to have a baby in the normal way. What can you do?

I read recently that the reason a lot of Muslims are not taking the vaccine is that they are being told that the white man is putting pork in it.

 

[Salt Bailly]

I read recently that the reason a lot of Muslims are not taking the vaccine is that they are being told that the white man is putting pork in it.

Which white man? If we can figure that out we can stop it at the source.

 

[lynchie]

Don’t you think this lockdown is different to the previous ones? It is where I live. Shops, restaurants etc all closed but much more traffic on the roads, offices are busier, more people are out and about and there’s generally more willingness to bend the rules.

I don’t blame us though. Everyone is so jaded by this whole thing. Plus when we hear about the most vulnerable being vaccinated it makes the pandemic seem less threatening. Combine that with a more virulent, more contagious virus and you can see why the downwards slops of cases is a hell of a lot bumpier and less steep than it was during previous lockdowns.

That’s what’s happening in Ireland anyway. We’re taking a longer to get numbers right down than we have done in previous lockdowns. With a less constant downward trend. Numbers even came down quicker when we tried regional partial lockdowns with schools remaining open.

How does this UK decline compare?

I do think it's more relaxed than the first lockdown, but cases in the UK have been coming down steadily. It'll always flatten out, partly because of that baseline I mentioned, and partly because that's just what exponential decay looks like, but I think there's only been one day in the last fortnight with higher cases than the week before.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I do think it's more relaxed than the first lockdown, but cases in the UK have been coming down steadily. It'll always flatten out, partly because of that baseline I mentioned, and partly because that's just what exponential decay looks like, but I think there's only been one day in the last fortnight with higher cases than the week before.

True that. With a much higher peak, that helps explain why cases are plateauing at about ten times higher than previous plateaus.

 

[Ronaldo's Mum Eh?]

What do people think of Vaccine passports? It seems a given for international travel, but for domestic uses?

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My body my choice! Right?!

Or is that not how it works with the far left when it doesn't suit their agenda? Love how everything was a choice before but now its essentially going to be forced on you.

In regards to people not taking the vaccine, it's upto them totally, hasn't this been massively rushed through anyway? Even I've got slight reservations about it due to how quickly it got approved when there was talk of it normally taking much much longer.

I'd probably get it anyway, but I can see why some won't. I ain't an anti Vax nut job who thinks bill gates wants to montior how many wanks I have a day.

Funny when this pandemic started all the doom and gloomers told me the vaccine will take several years to come out, even everybody's God Mr. Fauci said so himself. Now it comes out within a year and no one can question it... if you question it you are a horrible person, selfish, trump supporter, etc.

Not an anti-vaccer either but I'll avoid taking this thing if I can until conclusive long-term data can come out of this. I really don't give a shit about a 6 month trial.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

My body my choice! Right?!

Or is that not how it works with the far left when it doesn't suit their agenda? Love how everything was a choice before but now its essentially going to be forced on you.



Funny when this pandemic started all the doom and gloomers told me the vaccine will take several years to come out, even everybody's God Mr. Fauci said so himself. Now it comes out within a year and no one can question it... if you question it you are a horrible person, selfish, trump supporter, etc.

Not an anti-vaccer either but I'll avoid taking this thing if I can until conclusive long-term data can come out of this. I really don't give a shit about a 6 month trial.

I defy anyone to read this post and not immediately want vaccine passports more than they did before...

 

[Ronaldo's Mum Eh?]

I defy anyone to read this post and not immediately want vaccine passports more than they did before...

What have I said that's wrong? Can you explain?

 

[Stack]

What have I said that's wrong? Can you explain?

The moment people start to descend into left v right in matters regarding health etc you just know they are driven more by idealogy than they are by information.

 

[Grinner]

I read recently that the reason a lot of Muslims are not taking the vaccine is that they are being told that the white man is putting pork in it.

Can pork even be injected? What pork product looks watery?

Also, perhaps they can get a vaccine from India. They have a huge pharma industry.

 

[Ronaldo's Mum Eh?]

The moment people start to descend into left v right in matters regarding health etc you just know they are driven more by idealogy than they are by information.

I'm neither left or right.. but this pandemic has shown the hypocrisy of both sides.

In my original post, I was discussing the hypocrisy of the left, there's tons on the right as well.

 

[Stack]

I'm neither left or right.. but this pandemic has shown the hypocrisy of both sides.

In my original post, I was discussing the hypocrisy of the left, there's tons on the right as well.

I dont care if you are left or right. You headed down the path of left v right and for me thats a big red flag that someone is driven by the whole left v right bollocks and not by an actual problem or its information base.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

What have I said that's wrong? Can you explain?

It’s a long post and there’s a lot wrong in it but I kind of lost the will to try and take it on when you compared being asked to take a vaccine with being forced to take an unwanted pregnancy to term.

 

[F-Red]

Now it comes out within a year and no one can question it... if you question it you are a horrible person, selfish, trump supporter, etc.

Not an anti-vaccer either but I'll avoid taking this thing if I can until conclusive long-term data can come out of this. I really don't give a shit about a 6 month trial.

If you throw enough money at something it can be done quickly. An analogy is like building a bridge, it can be done in 10 days or 10 years. The steps to take to achieve the finished product are broadly the same, and passed the respective gates from people far more educated and knowledgeable on the topic than you or I.

The long term data argument is a bit of a cop out really, at what point do you become comfortable with the length of time before judging something as safe? More so, the long term effects of catching covid is probably the worse scenario out of the two.

Given the volumes of vaccines administered already, any common, uncommon or rare side effects would have been detected by now, furthermore the trials for the vaccines in distribution have been around for nearly a year now. I've not seen any conclusive arguments yet from any anti-vaccine discussion to suggest why it wouldn't be safe.

 

[Dumbstar]

Which white man? If we can figure that out we can stop it at the source.

I would suggest his name is Dave.

 

[Stanley Road]

My body my choice! Right?!

Or is that not how it works with the far left when it doesn't suit their agenda? Love how everything was a choice before but now its essentially going to be forced on you.



Funny when this pandemic started all the doom and gloomers told me the vaccine will take several years to come out, even everybody's God Mr. Fauci said so himself. Now it comes out within a year and no one can question it... if you question it you are a horrible person, selfish, trump supporter, etc.

Not an anti-vaccer either but I'll avoid taking this thing if I can until conclusive long-term data can come out of this. I really don't give a shit about a 6 month trial.

Curious how old you are

 

[acnumber9]

True that. With a much higher peak, that helps explain why cases are plateauing at about ten times higher than previous plateaus.

Are we not doing significantly more tests than we did during the first wave too? Surely, that has an impact on how low we can realistically expect cases to drop.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Are we not doing significantly more tests than we did during the first wave too? Surely, that has an impact on how low we can realistically expect cases to drop.

More than the first wave, definitely (especially in the UK). I don’t think we’re doing more than the wave last autumn though.

 

[Penna]

In fairness I also feel this way but rarely say it as I think/know I'm being selfish.

I wish I was healthy and could have the vaccine with no concerns at all. I'd be so happy, you have no idea.

If someone healthy of whatever age turns down a free vaccine, then they can't complain about being excluded from certain aspects of socialising, travel etc. Of course no-one should be forced and it's a choice, but this choice comes with rather immediate consequences.

 

[lynchie]

More than the first wave, definitely (especially in the UK). I don’t think we’re doing more than the wave last autumn though.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

Similar numbers of lab PCR tests to late October and November. The number done in recent weeks has been falling, which reflects reducing cases, so less people with symptoms. There are a LOT more lateral flow tests happening - hundreds of thousands a day - so we should be picking up more a/pre-symptomatic cases, but I don't know if they're a significant proportion of the daily cases. That's probably available from test and trace stats if anyone can be bothered to read their reports.

 

[Vidyoyo]

I wish I was healthy and could have the vaccine with no concerns at all. I'd be so happy, you have no idea.

If someone healthy of whatever age turns down a free vaccine, then they can't complain about being excluded from certain aspects of socialising, travel etc. Of course no-one should be forced and it's a choice, but this choice comes with rather immediate consequences.

That's a valid point and I do certainly agree that the vaccine is an invitation to being able to function in normal ways again. That's also the main reason I would accept it without long-term data - as a means to protect others.

P.s. I deleted my original post as I didn't explain that very well.

 

[acnumber9]

More than the first wave, definitely (especially in the UK). I don’t think we’re doing more than the wave last autumn though.

That was when we were around these case numbers wasn’t it? I’m not sure they’ll drop much more without closing more workplaces.

 

[NinjaFletch]

That was when we were around these case numbers wasn’t it? I’m not sure they’ll drop much more without closing more workplaces.

Good luck, I've had several friends tell me that they're being brought back in following the government's announcement of a road map this week,

 

[acnumber9]

Good luck, I've had several friends tell me that they're being brought back in following the government's announcement of a road map this week,

Oh it definitely won’t happen. I just don’t see the cases dropping significantly until the vaccines start to show their impact now. I think we’re about best case scenario with the current lockdown we have.

 

[NinjaFletch]

Oh it definitely won’t happen. I just don’t see the cases dropping significantly until the vaccines start to show their impact now. I think we’re about best case scenario with the current lockdown we have.

Yeah, probably right (tbh, I suspect if anything we'll see cases edge back up). We've repeatably demonstrated we're not going to take sensible decisions and refuse to learn our lessons; let's just hope it doesn't cause a variant with South Africa like properties to really feck us before the vaccine stamps out the virus here.