SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Massive Spanner

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The leaks are a pain in the hole but I don’t know what you mean about not getting “any semblance of a plan, as usual”. We’ve already had one very detailed road-map for a return to normality. The fact it ended up being torn up almost immediately explains the reluctance to go down the same path again.

The current idea seems to be complete a stage of reopening (this first stage primarily around reopening schools, so understand why you didn’t seem to notice it :smirk:) then assess where we are and plot out the next big set of changes. We definitely need an update to the current plan within the next couple of weeks, giving more detail about May/June. I’m sure we’ll get one.
In fairness the reopening of schools has gone well, though a lot of that is due to vaccinating the most vulnerable in tandem right? I still think click and collect should be open by now, too, though. I also think we're not being remotely ambitious enough with low spreaders like outdoor dining.

We got a plan last summer that largely went well until September, no? Also this year would surely be different given the vaccine ramp up? I don't see why we couldn't get a similar plan to be honest. I think if people were given a June date for a drop to level 3, July for level 2 etc. there would be far less angst over all of this.

I think overall where we differ is that you think a full on, six month lockdown is perfectly fine as long as it leads to an eventual reopening society at some point. I don't, I think it's mental seeing as even then it doesn't guarantee shit not hitting the fan once we get closer to Christmas again! I think we should be taking the same approach as other European countries, which is to open up and close up depending on cases going up/down. This lockdown is just stagnating at this point really, people have stopped caring, nobody is adhering to restrictions anymore.
 

Massive Spanner

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Vaccinating part of the vulnerable has happened but not all. My group was next but given what’s happened with AZ I imagine that will set us back a bit. There are thousands of people like me who have had to stay in their own home for a year. I guess that’s what they want to change
Well obviously not all have been but a good proportion have been, and it's had a noticeable impact. We've gone from completely stagnating numbers to a massive drop in hospitalisations and ICU's, even with schools and some construction opening, so it's fair to say, it's working.

It's still shit, mind, the numbers are a load of shite. My 73 year old father can't even get a date for his first dose from his GP yet. End of April my hole.
 

Pogue Mahone

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In fairness the reopening of schools has gone well, though a lot of that is due to vaccinating the most vulnerable in tandem right? I still think click and collect should be open by now, too, though. I also think we're not being remotely ambitious enough with low spreaders like outdoor dining.

We got a plan last summer that largely went well until September, no? Also this year would surely be different given the vaccine ramp up? I don't see why we couldn't get a similar plan to be honest. I think if people were given a June date for a drop to level 3, July for level 2 etc. there would be far less angst over all of this.

I think overall where we differ is that you think a full on, six month lockdown is perfectly fine as long as it leads to an eventual reopening society at some point. I don't, I think it's mental seeing as even then it doesn't guarantee shit not hitting the fan once we get closer to Christmas again! I think we should be taking the same approach as other European countries, which is to open up and close up depending on cases going up/down. This lockdown is just stagnating at this point really, people have stopped caring, nobody is adhering to restrictions anymore.
That’s definitely where we disagree alright. I think closing down again from here would be an absolute disaster. Woeful mismanagement of the situation. I’ve friends in the hospitality industry. They can handle delaying their opening for another month or two providing that’s the end of it. Going through all the effort of getting open again, only to have the rug pulled out from under them, would break them completely. We’re so close to the end of this nightmare. From now on the only changes we make should be for the better. IMHO.
 

Massive Spanner

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That’s definitely where we disagree alright. I think closing down again from here would be an absolute disaster. Woeful mismanagement of the situation. I’ve friends in the hospitality industry. They can handle delaying their opening for another month or two providing that’s the end of it. Going through all the effort of getting open again, only to have the rug pulled out from under them, would break them completely. We’re so close to the end of this nightmare. From now on the only changes we make should be for the better. IMHO.
I don't get why you think that though. Every European country has been doing it? Opening hospitality followed by a brief, sharp, strict lockdown when it looks like things could go wrong. I also don't see how it makes any sense by your logic that someone working in a pub would prefer to be out of work longer than in work as long as it wasn't just for a few weeks at a time.

But uh.. yeah.. maybe NPHET are seeing something that no other country is, right?

Also how do you know we're close? That's not a trick question. I just don't know how anyone can be so certain. The vaccines haven't been working well in Chile, the Brazilian variant looks like an absolute nightmare that will likely get here eventually, and cases will obviously go back up again as it gets colder. How can you say for certain we are near the end of this nightmare? How do we know that Christmas won't be a total shitshow again and this brutally long lockdown will have been completely pointless?

I really hope the vaccines are as great as you and NPHET and our government are so certain they will be!
 

Pogue Mahone

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I don't get why you think that though. Every European country has been doing it? Opening hospitality followed by a brief, sharp, strict lockdown when it looks like things could go wrong. I don't see how it makes any sense by your logic that someone working in a pub would prefer to be out of work longer than in work as long as it wasn't just for a few weeks at a time.

But uh.. yeah.. maybe NPHET are seeing something that no other country is, right?
I’m talking about people who own/run pubs/restaurants and I can assure that what you describe is their worst nightmare. I also don’t think that what you describe is a) as common as you think in the rest of Europe and b) the preferred approach for the people that live/work there
 

Massive Spanner

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I’m talking about people who own/run pubs/restaurants and I can assure that what you describe is their worst nightmare. I also don’t think that what you describe is a) as common as you think in the rest of Europe and b) the preferred approach for the people that live/work there
it's all just our opinions and thoughts on what people are thinking really. Let's be honest, Covid hasn't really been that bad for either of us in contrast to all the people who lost their jobs, loved ones, and have been stuck on PUP. If anything lockdown has been fine for me. I love WFH, we've saved a fortune and it's been a godsend with our puppy. I even got a new, better job with a bigger wage. I miss travel and seeing the family but that's about it. I'm weirdly dreading society opening up fully to a point, it's going to be a huge shock to the system for me (and many others like me). Believe me when I say that coming out of lockdown isn't a big priority for me (though I would love a pint of Guinness!).

I'm so far detached from the people who are really suffering from this that it's almost unfair. Some of the stories I've seen and read from them are horrendous, which is why, for their sakes, I want some shit to be open, and I want a plan for them, so they at least know when it's going to end. I don't see what's so radical about that.
 

golden_blunder

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Well obviously not all have been but a good proportion have been, and it's had a noticeable impact. We've gone from completely stagnating numbers to a massive drop in hospitalisations and ICU's, even with schools and some construction opening, so it's fair to say, it's working.

It's still shit, mind, the numbers are a load of shite. My 73 year old father can't even get a date for his first dose from his GP yet. End of April my hole.
Should come quicker now with AZ restricted to over 60s surely?
How come he hasn’t been done already? I thought the 70s were done
 

golden_blunder

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I don't get why you think that though. Every European country has been doing it? Opening hospitality followed by a brief, sharp, strict lockdown when it looks like things could go wrong. I also don't see how it makes any sense by your logic that someone working in a pub would prefer to be out of work longer than in work as long as it wasn't just for a few weeks at a time.

But uh.. yeah.. maybe NPHET are seeing something that no other country is, right?

Also how do you know we're close? That's not a trick question. I just don't know how anyone can be so certain. The vaccines haven't been working well in Chile, the Brazilian variant looks like an absolute nightmare that will likely get here eventually, and cases will obviously go back up again as it gets colder. How can you say for certain we are near the end of this nightmare? How do we know that Christmas won't be a total shitshow again and this brutally long lockdown will have been completely pointless?

I really hope the vaccines are as great as you and NPHET and our government are so certain they will be!
In regards to Chile didn’t they get the Chinese vaccine? If so, it’s a bit shit, barely passes the regulatory pass mark
No doubt they also have the Brazilian variant in the country
 

Massive Spanner

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Should come quicker now with AZ restricted to over 60s surely?
How come he hasn’t been done already? I thought the 70s were done
You'd hope so.

Who knows, I wouldn't trust a word the HSE and government say about what is and isn't done. My father knows plenty of other over 70's who haven't been done yet. He was originally told mid April, then late April, now there's no definitive date, I'm guessing due to the pause on AZ this week. My co worker's 82 year old granny only got her first dose a week ago. They're talking nonsense.
 

Pogue Mahone

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You'd hope so.

Who knows, I wouldn't trust a word the HSE and government say about what is and isn't done. My father knows plenty of other over 70's who haven't been done yet. He was originally told mid April, then late April, now there's no definitive date, I'm guessing due to the pause on AZ this week. My co worker's 82 year old granny only got her first dose a week ago. They're talking nonsense.
That’s shit news about your dad. Crazy he hasn’t been done yet. Apparently they’re opening the online portal for <70s tomorrow. 69 year olds can register on day one, 68 on day two, and so on.
 

Massive Spanner

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That’s shit news about your dad. Crazy he hasn’t been done yet. Apparently they’re opening the online portal for <70s tomorrow. 69 year olds can register on day one, 68 on day two, and so on.
I can only assume that it's intentionally slower in Sligo where cases are lower than in big hotspots like Dublin and the border counties, maybe? My partner's 71 year old dad is in North Dublin and he had it last week. It's a shame they haven't been transparent about all of it though. Anyone I say it to is shocked cause they've just assumed over 70's are done.
 

Pogue Mahone

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I can only assume that it's intentionally slower in Sligo where cases are lower than in big hotspots like Dublin and the border counties, maybe? My partner's 71 year old dad is in North Dublin and he had it last week. It's a shame they haven't been transparent about all of it though. Anyone I say it to is shocked cause they've just assumed over 70's are done.
Don’t think so. My folks got done last week in Skibereen. Where there’s been zero cases for about a month now. And they were done later than all their friends. It seems incredibly unfair to me that there are any 70+ year olds still waiting when they’re about to start allowing people in their 60s register online.
 

golden_blunder

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Don’t think so. My folks got done last week in Skibereen. Where there’s been zero cases for about a month now. And they were done later than all their friends. It seems incredibly unfair to me that there are any 70+ year olds still waiting when they’re about to start allowing people in their 60s register online.
Yeah I don’t think it’s right
 

King Eric 7

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It is just a webcam on the London underground , not a mask in sight.
I find it hard to believe that mask wearing on the tube would be non-existent. Surely it's pre Covid footage?
 

prateik

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Isn't almost everyone in the high risk category vaccinated in the UK ?

Worst its ever been here in India and people still arent wearing masks.. and millions are travelling from all over the country for the Kumbh.
 

Balljy

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I find it hard to believe that mask wearing on the tube would be non-existent. Surely it's pre Covid footage?
I don't think the one linked is quite as live as being suggested so that might true. I saw it cut at one point to a different street.
 

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In case it has not been posted in this thread yet: The Lancet Psychiatry has published what may be the first large study on suicide trends during the pandemic. Surprisingly, numbers are not up anywhere they checked for the period up July 31, 2020. Here are their methods and interpretation of their findings in their own words:
Methods: We sourced real-time suicide data from countries or areas within countries through a systematic internet search and recourse to our networks and the published literature. Between Sept 1 and Nov 1, 2020, we searched the official websites of these countries’ ministries of health, police agencies, and government-run statistics agencies or equivalents, using the translated search terms “suicide” and “cause of death”, before broadening the search in an attempt to identify data through other public sources. Data were included from a given country or area if they came from an official government source and were available at a monthly level from at least Jan 1, 2019, to July 31, 2020. Our internet searches were restricted to countries with more than 3 million residents for pragmatic reasons, but we relaxed this rule for countries identified through the literature and our networks. Areas within countries could also be included with populations of less than 3 million. We used an interrupted time-series analysis to model the trend in monthly suicides before COVID-19 (from at least Jan 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020) in each country or area within a country, comparing the expected number of suicides derived from the model with the observed number of suicides in the early months of the pandemic (from April 1 to July 31, 2020, in the primary analysis).

Interpretation: This is the first study to examine suicides occurring in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in multiple countries. In high-income and upper-middle-income countries, suicide numbers have remained largely unchanged or declined in the early months of the pandemic compared with the expected levels based on the pre-pandemic period. We need to remain vigilant and be poised to respond if the situation changes as the longer-term mental health and economic effects of the pandemic unfold.
Link: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(21)00091-2/fulltext

Suicide rates are not a full indicator of mental health, of course, and July 31 is by now a fairly early cut-off date. But this is encouraging news.
 

Stanley Road

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Isn't almost everyone in the high risk category vaccinated in the UK ?

Worst its ever been here in India and people still arent wearing masks.. and millions are travelling from all over the country for the Kumbh.
Our bangalore office has had to shut, thanks to idiotic management allowing people to come to work infected.
 

Brwned

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If you deny people the chance to excercise and get some natural light than we will go straight from a coronovirus pandemic to a mental breakdown pandemic and lose a significantly amount more people to suicide than even the worst case scenario of the virus, not to mention the health problems lack of natural light/abscene from the sun will cause.
So, about that...

In case it has not been posted in this thread yet: The Lancet Psychiatry has published what may be the first large study on suicide trends during the pandemic. Surprisingly, numbers are not up anywhere they checked for the period up July 31, 2020. Here are their methods and interpretation of their findings in their own words:


Link: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(21)00091-2/fulltext

Suicide rates are not a full indicator of mental health, of course, and July 31 is by now a fairly early cut-off date. But this is encouraging news.
 

Wibble

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Get vaccinated or kill Penna you selfish bastards
I’m talking about people who own/run pubs/restaurants and I can assure that what you describe is their worst nightmare. I also don’t think that what you describe is a) as common as you think in the rest of Europe and b) the preferred approach for the people that live/work there
Close down and open up costs a fortune each time. Throwing stock away and restocking again for open up alone is hugely expensive.
 

Brwned

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How many calculators has Essien given in West London?
:lol:

And in some countries suicide rates are better than usual. Not that mental health issues in general are in any way irrelevant.
Oh absolutely, there's plenty of legitimate mental health concerns. The suicide comments just always left me very uneasy because they were being used as a justification for someone's position on the lockdown / public health measures, which is a bit grim if you give it any thought. It was just said so casually, of course suicides will increase, and in this case they'll sky-rocket. For there to be more sucides than covid deaths you'd need to have 30x as many suicides as 2020, and 2020 was already the highest year on record.

There was no acknowledgement that actually, suicides are quite complicated, the idea that more unhappy people for a temporary period = more suicides is so simplistic that it's almost offensive to the people they're supposedly trying to protect - and the fact they're using them as a political football in the process makes it a bit dark. You were being cruel if you weren't considering this obvious impact of the lockdowns, how could you be so callous as to ignore these young, otherwise healthy people being pushed over the edge...and it was never acknowledged that this might be entirely fictional, an argument created to give moral justification for their own position.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Oh absolutely, there's plenty of legitimate mental health concerns. The suicide comments just always left me very uneasy because they were being used as a justification for someone's position on the lockdown / public health measures, which is a bit grim if you give it any thought. It was just said so casually, of course suicides will increase, and in this case they'll sky-rocket. For there to be more sucides than covid deaths you'd need to have 30x as many suicides as 2020, and 2020 was already the highest year on record.

There was no acknowledgement that actually, suicides are quite complicated, the idea that more unhappy people for a temporary period = more suicides is so simplistic that it's almost offensive to the people they're supposedly trying to protect - and the fact they're using them as a political football in the process makes it a bit dark. You were being cruel if you weren't considering this obvious impact of the lockdowns, how could you be so callous as to ignore these young, otherwise healthy people being pushed over the edge...and it was never acknowledged that this might be entirely fictional, an argument created to give moral justification for their own position.
Suicide wouldn’t be the only barometer of mental health, to be fair. Looks as though people with eating disorders have done very badly during the pandemic. Just one study but it showed a 66% increase in admissions between 2019 and 2020.

Note that I said “during the pandemic” and not “during lockdown”. Lockdown critics like to pretend that the only negative consequences are due to lockdown while the pandemic itself (relatives getting sick or dying, fear of the virus etc) will also cause huge stress and anxiety.
 

Brwned

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Suicide wouldn’t be the only barometer of mental health, to be fair. Looks as though people with eating disorders have done very badly during the pandemic. Just one study but it showed a 66% increase in admissions between 2019 and 2020.

Note that I said “during the pandemic” and not “during lockdown”. Lockdown critics like to pretend that the only negative consequences are due to lockdown while the pandemic itself (relatives getting sick or dying, fear of the virus etc) will also cause huge stress and anxiety.
Aye, that's what I was saying in the first sentence. There were plenty of legitimate mental health concerns so there was no need to jump to the extremes of suicide and proclaim them as a foregone conclusion. It was done simply for its moral impact, to match up lives against lives, and moreover to value one life over another. It wasn't just about how many more suicides there would be, but who they would affect.
In terms of the numbers the latest UK figures have 718 people dead under 80 without pre-existing conditions. A tragedy of course (for every death) but so is the poverty we're sure to see, so is the increase in suicides
Agreed. In my view there should have to be ironclad and irrefutable evidence that a lockdown is going to be save a substantial amount of years of life (I say years of life because saving 100 people 3 months isn't worth one person in their 20's who would otherwise live another 60 years committing suicide due to depression. Likewise someone in their 30's who hasn't had a cancerous lump checked out).
 

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So, about that...
Not surprised about that. The whole thing has been propaganda to force govs to allow businesses to reopen. It beggars belief that people were trying to argue more people would die from suicides than from a fecking pandemic. And this was despite the mortality rate reaching 11% in Italy. It's shocking how delusional human beings can be. And how selfish and greedy.
 

Wibble

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Oh absolutely, there's plenty of legitimate mental health concerns. The suicide comments just always left me very uneasy because they were being used as a justification for someone's position on the lockdown / public health measures, which is a bit grim if you give it any thought. It was just said so casually, of course suicides will increase, and in this case they'll sky-rocket. For there to be more sucides than covid deaths you'd need to have 30x as many suicides as 2020, and 2020 was already the highest year on record.

There was no acknowledgement that actually, suicides are quite complicated, the idea that more unhappy people for a temporary period = more suicides is so simplistic that it's almost offensive to the people they're supposedly trying to protect - and the fact they're using them as a political football in the process makes it a bit dark. You were being cruel if you weren't considering this obvious impact of the lockdowns, how could you be so callous as to ignore these young, otherwise healthy people being pushed over the edge...and it was never acknowledged that this might be entirely fictional, an argument created to give moral justification for their own position.
I totally agree.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Wasn’t sure about posting this. Partly because @lynchie told me that yer man is a known drama queen, partly because I think/hope we’ll never see scenes like this in Ireland/UK. I do think it’s worth sharing, though, to give an idea of how dark things can get when a health service gets overwhelmed. And that’s what happens without the sort of lockdowns we’ve had to ensure to keep the caseload manageable.
 

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Wasn’t sure about posting this. Partly because @lynchie told me that yer man is a known drama queen, partly because I think/hope we’ll never see scenes like this in Ireland/UK. I do think it’s worth sharing, though, to give an idea of how dark things can get when a health service gets overwhelmed. And that’s what happens without the sort of lockdowns we’ve had to ensure to keep the caseload manageable.
This is also mismanagement though. Rio, where these reports are from, currently has fewer ICU beds than it did 10 months ago. This latest wave of covid has been more transmissible, and possibly more deadly, but it will always be impossible to dissociate the effects from the virus' mutation from the worsening hospital situation.

This is Brazil though, where the government's ability to deliver good outcomes for its citizens in several areas has arguably gotten worse in general over the past 10-15 years.
 

Pogue Mahone

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This is also mismanagement though. Rio, where these reports are from, currently has fewer ICU beds than it did 10 months ago. This latest wave of covid has been more transmissible, and possibly more deadly, but it will always be impossible to dissociate the effects from the virus' mutation from the worsening hospital situation.

This is Brazil though, where the government's ability to deliver good outcomes for its citizens in several areas has arguably gotten worse in general over the past 10-15 years.
What he’s describing is 100% down to the worsening hospital situation. But it’s something that gets glossed over whenever we talk about “letting it rip”. The idea that life could get back to normal if we were to double our number of ICU beds. Even if you magic hundreds of ICU beds out of thin air (along with magical pixies to staff them) they’re still no good to you if you run out of the drugs you need to use them. I know for a fact there’s been hospitals in Ireland scenario planning about running out of oxygen!

And shortages like these becomes more and more inevitable the more countries end up as deep in the weeds as Brazil is right now.