SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Dancfc

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That reply below about Karen from Facebook is brilliant!
 

Dante

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nature is healing, we are the virus
The two ends of the Curry Mile:



And here's a pic from the middle:

Where are all the chavs going to double park?
:lol:

I've only just remembered that it's Eid in a few days. The pedestrianisation will put off a lot of kids from renting out a Ferrari with their parents' money and gunning it down Wilmslow Rd.
 

Maagge

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Did you also expect that when schools opened?
The decline in new cases slowed down quite noticeably then. This time we're opening way more things all at once as well as decreasing the distance from 2 to 1 metre.
 

horsechoker

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The two ends of the Curry Mile:



And here's a pic from the middle:


:lol:

I've only just remembered that it's Eid in a few days. The pedestrianisation will put off a lot of kids from renting out a Ferrari with their parents' money and gunning it down Wilmslow Rd.
I was hoping the streets would be paved with curry
 

redshaw

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2.4k cases but maybe some of it is missing with the systems down although they say it's a slight overestimate.
 

SteveJ

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Guardian said:
Up to 1,500 primary schools in England are expected to remain closed on 1 June after a rebellion by at least 18 councils forced the government to say it had no plans to sanction them.
 

FootballHQ

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Slowness of UK testing strategy getting panned....anyone could've seen that in late March and hardly any being done when lockdown started.

I really hope in a few years time when the inevitable inquiry happens that isn't the key finding from it as that would be a complete fudge.
 

Dumbstar

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The British revolution has started? We still have guillotines in working state if you need them.
We need more guns. Reckon NRA could help out? I'm gonna shoot all the northern bastards (except scousers obviously)!! :keano:
 

SalfordRed18

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Captain Tom knighted, which I think is fantastic.

But also, masks the fact that man of his age felt the need to what he did in the first place.
 

Wibble

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Schools are opening along a similar timeframe to other countries in terms of the pandemic and how "raging" it is, so I don't get that argument. They've been given nearly a month to prepare and if the infection rate doesn't follow the pattern expected they would put the date back. It is raging at a point where based on figures and the percentage of people who are in hospital or self isolating, I would need to go out and bump into 1,000 people in order for on average 1 of them to have the virus. If we're talking about up to 30% of the population having been infected at some point, that's not what I would exactly call raging.

We are actually testing at a higher rate than a majority of countries at this point. We were certainly criminally slow off the mark with that but the problem now is you are getting slightly skewed figures in terms of case numbers...we're testing 3-4 times as many people as during the peak of the virus and yet the confirmed case numbers are coming down. That tells you straight away you can't just look at the numbers on their own as a reliable basis. It does though tell you that testing resources are more and more available which is an extremely key factor to something like opening schools.

Is there any evidence where they have re-opened schools as to how much of a risk it is and how much difference it makes? I'd be interested to see as I've not seen anything either way other than conjecture and tabloid level rubbish. I've only seen evidence that in the past with other diseases it's had little effect either way, and even then I'm not sure how extensive or reliable that is or how it translates to corona virus. Admittedly I'm not going to scour through 900 pages of this thread to see if anything has been posted that I've missed.

And again. I have no idea what people seem to think the plan is at this point. I keep saying it and I'm still yet to see an answer. We went into lockdown to help the NHS cope. The mantra around containing or basically eliminating the virus had figures of around 20,000 deaths attached to it in order for it to be succesful...we're on our way to it being over 100,000, and possibly much higher depending on how severe the likely second wave will be. So anything based on this plan is already well past the point of being written off, and was weeks before we even went into lockdown. It's beyond even being an argument. The question anyone who still thinks that was the best course of action should be asking is why didn't go into lockdown weeks earlier or sort out our testing facilities months sooner...and it's all an irrelevance in terms of how to move forwards. At this point people are standing knee deep in water arguing that if we just don't open any doors ever again the flood water wont come in, instead of trying to figure out how to best deal with the fact it already has.



On the last point. I certainly agree it's a different situation when it affects all kids...but it's a different situation for SOME of them. For others who are stuck at home with parents who can barely afford to feed them and start seeing them as a burden it is a much worse situation. https://twitter.com/NSPCCLearning - try speaking to these guys and see what they think of the effect the situation is having on children and particularly on not so well off families. Or just read through some of their twitter timeline. It's a quite serious problem. There are 4 miillion+ people in this country who were living in absolute poverty BEFORE the pandemic. Most of them families. If you have people losing jobs and income because they are being asked to go to work but aren't able to send their kids to school, it becomes a potentially massive disaster. The problem with doing nothing until after the summer break, is you will have the same people putting the same obstacles in the way at that point. it is an inevitability because anxiety is a natural human trait. It's a harsh thing to accept but there is a much bigger and more complicated picture at this stage than just measuring every risk against 1 factor.

Honestly I'm suprised how many leftists there are who are happy to pin themselves to arguments that are completly out of touch with or ignorant of the situation most working class people are in. Not aimed particularly at you but the general attitude from the leftie internet dwellers is more tunnel visioned than most brexit voters views on immigration.

Also I apologise for the long posts. I have no idea how to talk about this subject without writing essays.
Governments want schools open so that parents can get back to work or become more productive to reduce the economic damage. However, when you are in a country where the the virus is still almost totally out of control then opening schools is a terrible idea. Just because kids don't get affected as much (or possibly infected as much) ignores the fact that teaching is an aging profession and teachers and pupils alike have elderly relatives. Not to mention all the ancillary staff you endanger. When you factor in the lack of PPE and that social distancing is virtually impossible in schools it is a terrible idea. We only had 9 new infections yesterday in the whole country and we are only just beginning to contemplate a return to F2F school for the majority. Even then there is a great deal of trepidation. If I were a teacher in the UK I wouldn't go back to work if I had a choice and I'd be hoping the union would call a national strike if the government insists.

And lockdowns aren't just to avoid the NHS becoming overwhelmed. It was also to try to minimise deaths and not throw the elderly to the wolves or to take one for the team.
 

Ludens the Red

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Governments want schools open so that parents can get back to work or become more productive to reduce the economic damage. However, when you are in a country where the the virus is still almost totally out of control then opening schools is a terrible idea. Just because kids don't get affected as much (or possibly infected as much) ignores the fact that teaching is an aging profession and teachers and pupils alike have elderly relatives. Not to mention all the ancillary staff you endanger. When you factor in the lack of PPE and that social distancing is virtually impossible in schools it is a terrible idea. We only had 9 new infections yesterday in the whole country and we are only just beginning to contemplate a return to F2F school for the majority. Even then there is a great deal of trepidation. If I were a teacher in the UK I wouldn't go back to work if I had a choice and I'd be hoping the union would call a national strike if the government insists.

And lockdowns aren't just to avoid the NHS becoming overwhelmed. It was also to try to minimise deaths and not throw the elderly to the wolves or to take one for the team.
Hmm, Is it really still totally out of control? Doesn’t seem or look that way at all.
 

Wibble

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Hmm, Is it really still totally out of control? Doesn’t seem or look that way at all.
160 people died of Covid yesterday in the UK. Just because it isn't as bad as it was doesn't mean it is under control. Australia isn't claiming it is fully under control with only 9 new infections yesterday and 100 deaths in total, not per day - 35,000 in the UK and with the way they are unlocking even without having full locked down a second/third wave is likely.

The UK hasn't even started compulsory quarantine yet ffs. The government are criminally incompetent.
 
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Ludens the Red

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160 people died of Covid yesterday in the UK. Just because it isn't as bad as it was doesn't mean it is under control. Australia isn't claiming it is fully under control with only 9 new infections yesterday and 100 deaths in total, not per day - 35,000 in the UK and with the way they are unlocking even without having full locked down a second/third wave is likely.

The UK hasn't even started compulsory quarantine yet ffs. The government are criminally incompetent.
You’ve gone from saying “totally out of control” to “not completely under control“. I agree with the second term its fine, first one seemed a bit over the top, that was all. Won’t catch me defending the U.K. government but it’s a lot better than it was. And is there ever going to be a time when it is completely under control? Is zero infections zero deaths ever even going to be a possibility in the U.K.?
 

Revan

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You’ve gone from saying “totally out of control” to “not completely under control“. I agree with the second term its fine, first one seemed a bit over the top, that was all. Won’t catch me defending the U.K. government but it’s a lot better than it was. And is there ever going to be a time when it is completely under control? Is zero infections zero deaths ever even going to be a possibility in the U.K.?
Probably. When the vaccine comes.

Thing is, it took covid a couple of months to go from 1 to hundreds of thousands. Opening now when there are tens of thousands of active cases, will essentially make it much easier for it to reach those large numbers it had. So in some way, it is totally out of control, and it is very likely that in 2 months, every country that is opening, will be in the same place they were in April.

The only safe way to open, is when the situation gets under control. That means, that you know exactly who is infected, and you can track everyone. What South Korea or Taiwan have been doing. Taiwan was widely expected to be the second most hit country in the world (after China). They have 7 deaths and 440 cases (in total). Patient 0 in South Korea was on the same day as in the US. They have 263 deaths compare to US's 93k.

So, countries that are opening pretending that they have the situation under control are fooling themselves. Until the number of daily cases reaches single digits, it is impossible to have the situation under control. So, the hope is that the exponential factor will be lower than it was before (cause people might take it more seriously, use masks, some gatherings are banned etc), but it is still gonna be an exponential function. This means only one thing: there is gonna be a repeat of April/May and there will be either be more lockdowns in the future, or the number of total deaths in the future would be significantly higher than it has been so far. Even with 'the worst has passed', it is extremely likely that the number of victims is gonna be a few times it is now. It will probably take longer, but the second wave is gonna come. This is a total certainty, unless a vaccine comes faster than it.
 

Wibble

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I've only just remembered that it's Eid in a few days. The pedestrianisation will put off a lot of kids from renting out a Ferrari with their parents' money and gunning it down Wilmslow Rd.
The curry mile has REALLY changed since my day then. Hardly surprising since my day was the early/mid 80's
 

Wibble

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You’ve gone from saying “totally out of control” to “not completely under control“. I agree with the second term its fine, first one seemed a bit over the top, that was all. Won’t catch me defending the U.K. government but it’s a lot better than it was. And is there ever going to be a time when it is completely under control? Is zero infections zero deaths ever even going to be a possibility in the U.K.?
I don't think that they really have any level of control TBH. The current level of infection if combined with a relaxation of the fairly mild lock down the UK imposed is very likely to see further waves of infection. So not controlled. The willingness in the UK and US and many other countries to let the old die seems utterly bizarre to me.

And zero infections is possible if we have a vaccine and make it compulsory and prevent the unvaccinated from travelling. Overseas arrivals must either have a vaccination from a reputable source or be vaccinated on entry and then serve 14 days detention quarantine at their own expense. Anyone who refuse vaccination without a proper medical reason should be barred from international travel and lose any government benefits they gate and their kids barred from attending schools. We have been held to ransom by antivax nutcases for long enough.
 

Revan

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I don't think that they really have any level of control TBH. The current level of infection if combined with a relaxation of the fairly mild lock down the UK imposed is very likely to see further waves of infection. So not controlled. The willingness in the UK and US and many other countries to let the old die seems utterly bizarre to me.

And zero infections is possible if we have a vaccine and make it compulsory and prevent the unvaccinated from travelling. Overseas arrivals must either have a vaccination from a reputable source or be vaccinated on entry and then serve 14 days detention quarantine at their own expense. Anyone who refuse vaccination without a proper medical reason should be barred from international travel and lose any government benefits they gate and their kids barred from attending schools. We have been held to ransom by antivax nutcases for long enough.
The Mark of the Beast. Revelation something.
 

Ludens the Red

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Probably. When the vaccine comes.

Thing is, it took covid a couple of months to go from 1 to hundreds of thousands. Opening now when there are tens of thousands of active cases, will essentially make it much easier for it to reach those large numbers it had. So in some way, it is totally out of control, and it is very likely that in 2 months, every country that is opening, will be in the same place they were in April.

The only safe way to open, is when the situation gets under control. That means, that you know exactly who is infected, and you can track everyone. What South Korea or Taiwan have been doing. Taiwan was widely expected to be the second most hit country in the world (after China). They have 7 deaths and 440 cases (in total). Patient 0 in South Korea was on the same day as in the US. They have 263 deaths compare to US's 93k.

So, countries that are opening pretending that they have the situation under control are fooling themselves. Until the number of daily cases reaches single digits, it is impossible to have the situation under control. So, the hope is that the exponential factor will be lower than it was before (cause people might take it more seriously, use masks, some gatherings are banned etc), but it is still gonna be an exponential function. This means only one thing: there is gonna be a repeat of April/May and there will be either be more lockdowns in the future, or the number of total deaths in the future would be significantly higher than it has been so far. Even with 'the worst has passed', it is extremely likely that the number of victims is gonna be a few times it is now. It will probably take longer, but the second wave is gonna come. This is a total certainty, unless a vaccine comes faster than it.
Germany haven’t dropped to single digit figures for cases though. Are you suggesting Germany have got it wrong ? And that they should have continued in full lockdown? Isn’t it also the case that actually none of these countries are looking for a complete eradication of cases due to the unreliability on a date for a vaccine? And so are still going for a part herd tactic?
You’re probably right in that a second wave will come a lot further down the line.

The general tone and conclusions from your post though seem to be either an unrealistic expectancy of us getting to single digit infections worldwide or worse case scenarios situations. You will never be able to do a Korean type lockdown in Europe or America. And you’ve stated that deaths will be significantly higher and that the victim count will be a few times higher than it is now but this doesn’t seem to be the general consensus as there’s still a lot of factors to be understood as well as how potent the virus is after this initial phase. Seems to be a strong point of view to take when everyone else seems uncertain.

I don't think that they really have any level of control TBH. The current level of infection if combined with a relaxation of the fairly mild lock down the UK imposed is very likely to see further waves of infection. So not controlled. The willingness in the UK and US and many other countries to let the old die seems utterly bizarre to me.

And zero infections is possible if we have a vaccine and make it compulsory and prevent the unvaccinated from travelling. Overseas arrivals must either have a vaccination from a reputable source or be vaccinated on entry and then serve 14 days detention quarantine at their own expense. Anyone who refuse vaccination without a proper medical reason should be barred from international travel and lose any government benefits they gate and their kids barred from attending schools. We have been held to ransom by antivax nutcases for long enough.
Agreed but I have no hope that’ll happen, “human rights” “freedom of speech” etc. Just far too many stupid people in the world.
 

Blackwidow

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Do drive-in cinemas have a renaissance elsewhere, too? In Germany not just with films, they are used for concerts, too, and on June 12 the top German pole vault jumpers will have a competition in one!

The one in Frankfurt in the last years only had about one or two shows, often older films, each week. Now two or more daily.

And from June 1st on my next bigger city will use its festival place as drive-in cinema vor various events.
 

redshaw

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China's New Outbreak Shows Signs the Virus Could Be Changing

Bloomberg link

"Chinese doctors are seeing the coronavirus manifest differently among patients in its new cluster of cases in the northeast region compared to the original outbreak in Wuhan, suggesting that the pathogen may be changing in unknown ways and complicating efforts to stamp it out.

Patients found in the northern provinces of Jilin and Heilongjiang appear to carry the virus for a longer period of time and take longer to recover, as defined by a negative nucleic acid test, Qiu Haibo, one of China’s top critical care doctors, told state television on Tuesday.

Cases in the northeast also appear to be taking longer than the one to two weeks observed in Wuhan to develop symptoms after infection, and this delayed onset is making it harder for authorities to catch cases before they spread, said Qiu, who is now in the northern region treating patients."

“The longer period during which infected patients show no symptoms has created clusters of family infections,” said Qiu, who was earlier sent to Wuhan to help in the original outbreak. Some 46 cases have been reported over the past two weeks spread across three cities -- Shulan, Jilin city and Shengyang -- in two provinces, a resurgence of infection that sparked renewed lockdown measures over a region of 100 million people.

Scientists still do not fully understand if the virus is changing in significant ways and the differences Chinese doctors are seeing could be due to the fact that they’re able to observe patients more thoroughly and from an earlier stage than in Wuhan. When the outbreak first exploded in the central Chinese city, the local health-care system was so overwhelmed that only the most serious cases were being treated. The northeast cluster is also far smaller than Hubei’s outbreak, which ultimately sickened over 68,000 people."


Was reading of just the new cases eariler and a little surprised by the amount that just popped up but this might be a reason. Hopefully it's just observational differences.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Do drive-in cinemas have a renaissance elsewhere, too? In Germany not just with films, they are used for concerts, too, and on June 12 the top German pole vault jumpers will have a competition in one!

The one in Frankfurt in the last years only had about one or two shows, often older films, each week. Now two or more daily.

And from June 1st on my next bigger city will use its festival place as drive-in cinema vor various events.
It’s a nice idea and will appeal to people because of its novelty but can’t see it being more than a passing phase. In these days of IMAX watching a film through your car windscreen must be a terrible substitute.

I’ve even heard people talking about drive-in dance music festivals. What the feck?
 

Pogue Mahone

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China's New Outbreak Shows Signs the Virus Could Be Changing

Bloomberg link

"Chinese doctors are seeing the coronavirus manifest differently among patients in its new cluster of cases in the northeast region compared to the original outbreak in Wuhan, suggesting that the pathogen may be changing in unknown ways and complicating efforts to stamp it out.

Patients found in the northern provinces of Jilin and Heilongjiang appear to carry the virus for a longer period of time and take longer to recover, as defined by a negative nucleic acid test, Qiu Haibo, one of China’s top critical care doctors, told state television on Tuesday.

Cases in the northeast also appear to be taking longer than the one to two weeks observed in Wuhan to develop symptoms after infection, and this delayed onset is making it harder for authorities to catch cases before they spread, said Qiu, who is now in the northern region treating patients."

“The longer period during which infected patients show no symptoms has created clusters of family infections,” said Qiu, who was earlier sent to Wuhan to help in the original outbreak. Some 46 cases have been reported over the past two weeks spread across three cities -- Shulan, Jilin city and Shengyang -- in two provinces, a resurgence of infection that sparked renewed lockdown measures over a region of 100 million people.


Scientists still do not fully understand if the virus is changing in significant ways and the differences Chinese doctors are seeing could be due to the fact that they’re able to observe patients more thoroughly and from an earlier stage than in Wuhan. When the outbreak first exploded in the central Chinese city, the local health-care system was so overwhelmed that only the most serious cases were being treated. The northeast cluster is also far smaller than Hubei’s outbreak, which ultimately sickened over 68,000 people."


Was reading of just the new cases eariler and a little surprised by the amount that just popped up but this might be a reason. Hopefully it's just observational differences.
It does sound more like what we’ve experienced in Europe. Which fits with the early data coming out of China causing most of Europe to underestimate the transmissibility of the virus. Much more likely that it’s our understanding of the virus that has evolved over the last few months than the virus itself evolving.
 

Wibble

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It’s a nice idea and will appeal to people because of its novelty but can’t see it being more than a passing phase. In these days of IMAX watching a film through your car windscreen must be a terrible substitute.

I’ve even heard people talking about drive-in dance music festivals. What the feck?
Drive in movies are awesome - better for blockbusters and old favorites but I love them anyway. They work best in warmer climates.
 

11101

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160 people died of Covid yesterday in the UK. Just because it isn't as bad as it was doesn't mean it is under control. Australia isn't claiming it is fully under control with only 9 new infections yesterday and 100 deaths in total, not per day - 35,000 in the UK and with the way they are unlocking even without having full locked down a second/third wave is likely.

The UK hasn't even started compulsory quarantine yet ffs. The government are criminally incompetent.
Depends what the government is trying to do. Nobody believes they can totally eradicate this virus and everybody started from a different stage. Australia is not comparable with the UK. Only similar countries like France, Germany, and Spain are, with similar populations, profiles and advance warning, and we won't know who performed best for a few years yet.

I think the UK is focusing on keeping the virus beneath the capacity of the NHS, nothing else. I don't think they want to admit it but they're trying to keep the balance between that and keeping the economy moving as much as possible. In that sense they have succeeded so far.
 

BIGbadBOO4

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I have to stop reading about our government because they just drive me mad. After 10 years of fecking education over by these assiduous cnuts, they start going on about children's education as being vital. Running the line that getting children back too school is important for their education. What about the last decade you wankers!
 

sglowrider

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It does sound more like what we’ve experienced in Europe. Which fits with the early data coming out of China causing most of Europe to underestimate the transmissibility of the virus. Much more likely that it’s our understanding of the virus that has evolved over the last few months than the virus itself evolving.
How critical is it to find Patient Zero from China still?