The truth is somewhere in between. The reason Cummings has got so far is because he's been able to control media narrative to political advantage in the past. Gove credits him with twice saving his career in the early days by doing so. The infamous big red bus lie was Cummings's strategy. The primary aim of it wasn't to convince people that we could better fund the NHS if we left the EU but to cause a media shitstorm and really light a fire under the Brexit debate. Cummings admits that it worked much better than even he anticipated.
They do have calculated strategy, if it works in the case is a different matter. I guess it depends on what the end is. If Boris really believes that he needs Cummings for Brexit no matter what and is balancing that against a short term battering in public confidence then they might just get away with it.
The difference with the big red bus lie was that Cummings and Boris had a large BrExit seeking constituency hoping he’d be right as well as it being an amazing benefit if it were true.
This context of this recent set of lies is totally different: there is no pro Covid19 vote base, 99% of the population have suffered by taking opposite decisions to his, with a vocal minority seriously suffering from emotional or psychological trauma because of that. And IF Cummings did have the rights to trust his ‘instincts’, then that must mean the other 99% are worse parents for not having done the same.
Cummings decisions cannot garner empathy with a large enough constituency. Plus he also further antogonised the media in his excuses, and they won’t ever forget that.
Lies are a dangerous business because you have to tell increasingly bigger ones to defend to original lie. As those require others to lie for you. Tory Ministers, MP’s and media outriders already sound ridiculous trying to defend him. That is not sustainable under ferocious and sustained scrutiny.
As social distancing measures relax, I can see families and friends of those who died (including Tory and Leave voters) attending protests, sharing more tragic stories and becoming further entrenched in their outrage. Their shared experience will unify them. It actually the perfect project for a group like Momentum to organise and propagate.
Even if Cummings survives a few weeks, is he able to perform his role as belligerent enforcer amongst Tory Government and civil service any more? He becomes a lame duck. Which in turn makes Boris one too. Cummings position has become untenable.