SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Spiersey

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Surprised how little has been made of Prince Charles heading to Balmoral given the huge uproar at people heading to the Highlands and to Wales to try and escape Cities. It’s massive hypocrisy.
Balmoral area is a very old population (Braemar, Ballater etc). I know he won’t spend much, if any, time off the estate but the point still stands. The nearest Hospital is Aboyne, which will not be equipped to deal with corona virus patients I’m sure. My grandad was in there and was moved to Aberdeen when he became critical.

Would be nice to see wealthy people being held to the same standards they expect from normal people.
 

Maluco

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A study from Oxford suggests that the virus spread from China one month earlier than first assumed, and that as much as half the English population already could be infected, and that most people have very small - or no symptoms at all. The study relies on computer modelling on numbers from Italy and England.

The researches behind this study do warn, however, that this is computer modelling, and not hard evidence. We need studies on a representative selection of the population and find out how many actually are infected, and how many have been infected by the virus. This can be done by blood testing, as there will be antibodies to the virus in your blood if you had it.

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

On Iceland, The Icelandic genetics company DeCode Genetics, reports to have tracked 40 mutations of the coronavirus in Iceland. They suggest that the virus is acting more like the flu, by becoming more infectious, but less harmfull with time, - which, according to them, is typical for viruses.

https://www.information.dk/indland/...ationer-coronavirus-alene-paa-island?lst_frnt

There is still so much we don´t know about this virus, but if the Oxford study can be backed up with real findings, that would be a total game changer. It would mean normal life and football soon to return.
It is a massive hope, but the only worry is that the UK still have a very large number of negative tests to positive ones.

How would that fit into the data?

Surely if there was more of it around, we would be seeing more positive tests?
 

Wibble

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I agree with this. Australia seems so lax compared to what I have seen back home. People happily standing next to each other and just going about their business as normal.
It has been getting better in the last few days. In summary people are idiots.
 

Wibble

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Surprised how little has been made of Prince Charles heading to Balmoral given the huge uproar at people heading to the Highlands and to Wales to try and escape Cities. It’s massive hypocrisy.
Balmoral area is a very old population (Braemar, Ballater etc). I know he won’t spend much, if any, time off the estate but the point still stands. The nearest Hospital is Aboyne, which will not be equipped to deal with corona virus patients I’m sure. My grandad was in there and was moved to Aberdeen when he became critical.

Would be nice to see wealthy people being held to the same standards they expect from normal people.
The Royal family and hypocrisy go together like Andy and ...... forget it.
 

711

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It is a massive hope, but the only worry is that the UK still have a very large number of negative tests to positive ones.

How would that fit into the data?

Surely if there was more of it around, we would be seeing more positive tests?
If half the population had it earlier we should have seen a huge number of hospitalisations and deaths earlier. We didn't, it's patently incorrect.
 

Dante

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It is a massive hope, but the only worry is that the UK still have a very large number of negative tests to positive ones.

How would that fit into the data?

Surely if there was more of it around, we would be seeing more positive tests?
Tests aren't 100% accurate.

Some tests might be high specificity (lots of correctly identified negatives but might also give some false negatives). Others might be high sensitivity (lots of correctly identified positives but might also give some false positives). It's difficult to know where the UK's tests sit on those spectrums, especially in comparison to other nations.
 
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Camy89

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Very frustrating that Prince Charles has been tested and shown to be positive. He was exhibiting mild symptoms and therefore doesn't fall into the remit of requiring testing - just 7 days isolation.

It's frustrating because even at the sign of mild symptoms the Crown receives a test at the drop of a hat, the frontline NHS staff? Nope.

That said, we believe there is a testing centre being set up outside our hospital. Unsure yet whether this is for staff or just public.

Edit: Just read @Spiersey comment, totally agree. 100%.
 

17 Van der Gouw

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I'm centrist to center-right, but I'll be the first to admit that Donald Trump is a disaster as President during the pandemic. All of this stuff about being open for business in three weeks is ridiculous, and some of his supporters crowing that the elderly should be happy to die to allow the economy to continue as usual is disgusting.

Regarding NYC needing more ventilators:

Trump told Fox: “It’s a two-way street, they have to treat us well also. They can’t say, Oh gee we should get this, we should get that"

They are to protect your citizens from dying, feckwit!
 

Camy89

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It is a massive hope, but the only worry is that the UK still have a very large number of negative tests to positive ones.

How would that fit into the data?

Surely if there was more of it around, we would be seeing more positive tests?
I would take the amount of negative tests with a pinch of salt. 20% false negative rate was the last I heard. We've had to test a few patients here twice, just to make sure, which isn't ideal due to supplies.
 

Camy89

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I'm centrist to center-right, but I'll be the first to admit that Donald Trump is a disaster as President during the pandemic. All of this stuff about being open for business in three weeks is ridiculous, and some of his supporters crowing that the elderly should be happy to die to allow the economy to continue as usual is disgusting.

Regarding NYC needing more ventilators:

Trump told Fox: “It’s a two-way street, they have to treat us well also. They can’t say, Oh gee we should get this, we should get that"

They are to protect your citizens from dying, feckwit!
I love Schadenfreude (of Trump) so would be interested to see what would happen if you did open back up for business. However, I also love people living, so I'm going to have to err on the side of him not getting humble pie and America correctly isolating and locking down where necessary. God help you.
 

BluesJr

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I’m sure it’s been discussed but isn’t this idea of having millions of antibody tests available in the next few weeks complete fantasy? Just doesn’t seem legit at all.
 

Dve

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I would take the amount of negative tests with a pinch of salt. 20% false negative rate was the last I heard. We've had to test a few patients here twice, just to make sure, which isn't ideal due to supplies.
We need blood tests really. That would give us a better idea.
 

Camy89

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I’m sure it’s been discussed but isn’t this idea of having millions of antibody tests available in the next few weeks complete fantasy? Just doesn’t seem legit at all.
Unless it differentiates between active and past infection , the antibody tests are borderline useless anyway. If it just comes up 'positive', that would probably cause more issues than it solves.
 

Dve

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Reckon pricing would be the issue with that one. I'd shudder to think the price of the assay needed for that one.
You don´t need to test the whole population, just a representative selection. A few thousands will do.
 

Suedesi

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I don't see why people fall for these clickbait articles. What do two American academics know about the UK's situation and policymaking? Next to nothing. Just because you're an expert in one thing doesn't mean you're an expert in everything.
What a stupid response
 
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My best mate lives in Stockholm and says it’s just like a normal evening there tonight - bars, restaurants and clubs all open, trains as busy as usual, people walking the streets, hugging each other etc. Luckily he’s now WFH so hasn’t gone out much. He’s very worried it’s going to kick off big time there shortly.
It’s nothing like usual @Adamsk7. Yes, restaurants are open and have been made to split tables, chairs a metre apart etc, it’s table service only so “clubs” aren’t open as usual at all. Lots of small things have been introduced and we’ve been having about 200 cases a day for a week now so the experts are happy that we currently have a stable situation.
People are still making the mistake of thinking that we need to lock this down and that will somehow get rid of the virus; as the Swedish experts said again yesterday, this virus is going nowhere, it is with us and there are only two solutions to stop it, neither of those are lockdown.
The only thing a lockdown will do is give the health service time to breathe at a time when it needs it most.
The financial packages Sweden have come out with this past 10 days are massive towards stopping this. 14 days sick paid 100% by government, no sick note required amongst a tonne of other things.
We’re already already using the military to prepare a massive field hospital in Stockholm so don’t worry about us, we’re a nation that loves to keep our distance from each other at the best of times :)
 
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Shakesy

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Yeah. It’s not the air that the problem.

It’s if you’re unfortunate to be seated within 2 seats of an unknowing infected person (includes flight attendants).

Was surprised to see maybe 30% not wearing a mask which is really irresponsible. Am sitting in Doha - London waiting lounge full of Brit’s now and loads (but still minority) not wearing a mask of any sort. I don’t get this bravado or ignorance or whatever it is.

The N95 mask is not 100% guaranteed, and you also have to take it off to eat/drink or just for a few seconds to cool the inside down.

Also you’re vulnerable to touching surfaces that may have been infected, eg bathroom handle etc. I have a very strong hand spray that gives me 2-3 hours sanitised protection, so am very mindful of that ritual (have set up alarms on my watch).

As i wrote, it’s lots of new habits and making sure you remember them all! Hope to God this is last time have to fly like this and science can save us!
I've been following your crazy escape for days! Godspeed!
 

kouroux

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Yeah, that renders mosques being closed useless. I agree. This is where religious authorities being proactive and knowledgeable about things would help, but instead many of them are spewing the most unhelpful advise possible.
Our religious authorities have done it the right way. They told people to stay home, pray at home etc etc... Our people are just stubborn
 

Withnail

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A study from Oxford suggests that the virus spread from China one month earlier than first assumed, and that as much as half the English population already could be infected, and that most people have very small - or no symptoms at all. The study relies on computer modelling on numbers from Italy and England.

The researches behind this study do warn, however, that this is computer modelling, and not hard evidence. We need studies on a representative selection of the population and find out how many actually are infected, and how many have been infected by the virus. This can be done by blood testing, as there will be antibodies to the virus in your blood if you had it.

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b
This is behind a pay-wall so I can't read it but doesn't a computer model have to be based on real data for it to have any worth?

How is it relying on other models? What is the source of their data.

Without any hard data to back it up, isn't this pure conjecture?
 

Withnail

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It’s nothing like usual @Adamsk7. Yes, restaurants are open and have been made to split tables, chairs a metre apart etc, it’s table service only so “clubs” aren’t open as usual at all. Lots of small things have been introduced and we’ve been having about 200 cases a day for a week now so the experts are happy that we currently have a stable situation.
People are still making the mistake of thinking that we need to lock this down and that will somehow get rid of the virus; as the Swedish experts said again yesterday, this virus is going nowhere, it is with us and there are only two solutions to stop it, neither of those are lockdown.
The only thing a lockdown will do is give the health service time to breathe at a time when it needs it most.
The financial packages Sweden have come out with this past 10 days are massive towards stopping this. 14 days sick paid 100% by government, no sick note required amongst a tonne of other things.
We’re already already using the military to prepare a massive field hospital in Stockholm so don’t worry about us, we’re a nation that loves to keep our distance from each other at the best of times :)
Everything's fine. Your friend's a drama queen, and all the other countries are wrong. There's nothing to see here :wenger:
 
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Everything's fine. Your friend's a drama queen, and all the other countries are wrong. There's nothing to see here :wenger:
eh? That’s not what I said AT ALL. I said, his mate is being a drama queen saying “things are like normal” because he obviously wants to see a full lockdown, they aren’t like normal at all, I fecking live here man, things are nothing like normal, far far from it.

The hard stats so far say that the situation in Sweden is stable, if people continue to follow the strict guidelines set out for them. Sweden have clearly stated many times that they will escalate when required, but what do you think a lockdown now would achieve for Sweden?

What are Sweden getting wrong so far in your expert opinion @Withnail?
 
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Withnail

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eh? That’s not what I said AT ALL.

The hard stats so far say that the situation in Sweden is stable, if people continue to follow the strict guidelines set out for them. Sweden have clearly stated many times that they will escalate when required, but what do you think a lockdown now would achieve for Sweden?

What are Sweden getting wrong so far in your expert opinion @Withnail?
They're doing everything right and following expert advice, just like the UK before they changed tactic, eh?

Sweden are coming under some criticism for being too relaxed in their approach, when compared to other countries.

This thing can sneak up on you though and a lot can happen in two weeks. Granted the number of infections are still low, doesn't the recent spike in the number of deaths give you some cause for concern?
 

F-Red

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Probably a shortage of tests, makes you wonder how many cases are we missing.
Huge amounts on the frontline workers and other NHS workers. They should be the priority. We’re only testing those with symptoms coming into the NHS. Should change next week.

Post test phase we need to the employ contact tracing to hunt down carriers.
 

antsmithmk

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It is a massive hope, but the only worry is that the UK still have a very large number of negative tests to positive ones.

How would that fit into the data?

Surely if there was more of it around, we would be seeing more positive tests?
The test at the minute can only confirm you actually have the infection. We need a test to show if you have had the infection but now recovered. That's the antibody test.
 

Sarni

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How do you know that Lombardy figures are 100% correct? Why is there such a massive discrepancy between Italys death toll / confirmed cases and Germany for example. This might interest you
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...se/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/


But Prof Ricciardi added that Italy’s death rate may also appear high because of how doctors record fatalities.
“The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.
“On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.
Even if you assume they are overstating the number of deaths cause by coronavirus, it’s definitely not by that much. And then you also have the argument of new cases appearing at a higher rate which is inexplicable if we assume 50% (or more in case of Italy who started earlier) had been sick already. Basically the whole argument they are making is utter trash and needs multiple far fetched assumptions to be even remotely close to working.
 

Revan

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It might be the best episode ever of A Closer Look (focused on Trump's wish to open the country):

 
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They're doing everything right and following expert advice, just like the UK before they changed tactic, eh?

Sweden are coming under some criticism for being too relaxed in their approach, when compared to other countries.

This thing can sneak up on you though and a lot can happen in two weeks. Granted the number of infections are still low, doesn't the recent spike in the number of deaths give you some cause for concern?
Once again I think you’re getting confused here.

All countries are following a timeline but Sweden are waaaaaaaay behind in their timeline compared to UK, Germany, France, what do you think a lockdown now at this early stage would achieve?
And don’t be telling me “we’re too relaxed”.

• we have told all over 70’s to isolate
• we have banned all public large gatherings
• we have given all citizens the right to 14 days paid sick leave with no doctors note if they feel the tiniest symptom.
• we open many food shops one hour early for risk groups
• we have brought in the military to build an enormous field hospital at the exhibition centre.
• cafes must have a designated ordering zone for one person, then markings a metre away where any queue must be split by a meter.
• we have a 14:00 daily press conference from the health ministry and government.

Lots of precautions and preparations are in place, but as I say, we are also aware that this virus is with us to stay until one of only two possible scenarios plays and the stats say we’re stable.

Sweden isn’t Italy, Spain, UK or Germany, it’s a vastly different and large country with a tiny population for it’s size.

Now when Swedish reaches a point where the numbers start to show the health service might start to struggle, they’ll go the next level in their timeline. This won’t be a change of plan, it’ll be the next stage, and I think this is what people are mistaking. A 12-14 month lockdown is simply not going to happen anywhere, and this isn’t one city like Wuhan with the World’s biggest military brought in to ensure a strict lockdown of that city.
How on Earth could you enforce such a lockdown on the UK, let alone Sweden which would be utterly impossible.
The lockdowns are to buy time, short term, and flatten the curve. Giving the health service time to breath, funding to be made, field hospitals to be built etc.

After the lockdowns it’ll all be about continuous social distancing and more testing, especially if this test for showing antibodies works. Trying to keep the numbers “stable” (like our CURRENT, important to note current, situation in Scandinavia) until one of the solutions presents itself.
 
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