g = window.googletag || {}; googletag.cmd = googletag.cmd || []; window.googletag = googletag; googletag.cmd.push(function() { var interstitialSlot = googletag.defineOutOfPageSlot('/17085479/redcafe_gam_interstitial', googletag.enums.OutOfPageFormat.INTERSTITIAL); if (interstitialSlot) { interstitialSlot.addService(googletag.pubads()); } });
The British were pretty open about considering the number of infections to be 10x the confirmed cases a few weeks ago.100 million already? No way. If that would have been the case, then we would be talking for a mortality rate significantly lower than that of the flu, and we would have just continued with normal life. It might be that the number of infections is double that we think of, or even a few times higher, but not 100 times higher.
It is standard practice in China to cover things up until they get out of hand and then backtrack on everything. This is far from the first time they have done it.I don’t buy into the whole conspiracy stuff but I think there’s a genuine concern that China have misled / lied about it as part of a cover up.
If that’s ever proven, surely that’s equitable to war crimes?! You’d imagine there would be international condemnation! Could get very messy
Only because they are known to get bat viruses. However, they are rarely sold in wet markets. They also know that this isn't the bat originated virus pangolins often carry or SARS. It is however very similar to the original bat virus only changed enough to be c peasily passed to/between humans, unlike the original bat virus.pangolin seems to be mentioned a lot.
Yeah, 10 times could be. Which would be wonderful news, would make the death ratio 10 times lower than the current one.The British were pretty open about considering the number of infections to be 10x the confirmed cases a few weeks ago.
100 times higher is a stretch, but, given how tough it is to get tested, the actual number of cases is easily at least an order of magnitude higher than the confirmed number of cases.
It's almost like they learned from past mistakes with MERS and implemented a proper procedure for pandemics due to it. They have gone on record as saying that the MERS outbreak there led to them drawing up plans for this sort of eventuality. Luckily the rest of the world noticed this and implemented similar plansIf this is true then it’s amazing work by South Korea.
100 times is nonsense. 10 times is a stretch but possible. 2-3 times is most likely I guess.Yeah, 10 times could be. Which would be wonderful news, would make the death ratio 10 times lower than the current one.
100 is too good to be true.
There is an interesting study being conducted in Germany at the moment. Led by Hendrik Streeck (chief virologist at the University Hospital Bonn), supported by 70 colleagues and funded by the state of North-Rhine Westphalia, they are trying to find out more about how the virus spreads.
Streeck has been critical of the Robert Koch Institute (the country's federal agency responsible for disease control) which, according to him, missed the chance to collect reliable data. So with the help of the local registration office, 500 representative families from one town were selected to fill that gap. The same town in which the first infection in NRW occured. They are now being studied which includes blood sampling, taking throat swaps and a comprehensive questionnaire. The researchers know exactly when the virus hit the town, on 15 February during a carnival session. The assumption is that many of the local outbreaks around Europe are directly connected to big celebrations or gatherings - carnival in Germany, après-ski in Tyrol or football matches in Bergamo. Or in simple words, a lot of people in tight spaces. They have a list of attendees for said carnival meeting and are working their way from there.
Interestingly, the research team could not detect traces the virus on any of the tested surfaces, even in highly contaminated households. Not on phones, door handles, washbasins or cats. Streeck stressed that as of now there was no danger of infecting anyone while shopping and is highly doubtful if transmission could happen at restaurants or the hairdresser's. He didn't go as far as criticising the current measures but called them drastic and said many of the decisions have been made based on speculation and hopes this study can shed some light on the path of infection to make better decisions going forward.
Yep, I agree. Even it being 10 times higher would be great news.100 times is nonsense. 10 times is a stretch but possible. 2-3 times is most likely I guess.
Seconded, would be very interesting to peruse.OK I think we need a source for this. Where did you get this from because it's potentially huge if true.
It made the Guardian yesterday:OK I think we need a source for this. Where did you get this from because it's potentially huge if true.
So under the most conservative model estimate, where we're on lockdown about 3/4 of the time up until December 2021, we're still going to require more ICU beds (5,000) than we have (4,562). The grey blocks are periods of intermittent lockdowns, pink blocks are when intensive interventions* are ongoing, blue blocks are intermittent school closures.Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Oh thanks, I couldn't find any English-language sources. Streeck was also on national TV last night and talked about his research. For anyone who speaks German:It made the Guardian yesterday:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...orst-hit-district-into-coronavirus-laboratory
It made the Guardian yesterday:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...orst-hit-district-into-coronavirus-laboratory
Think the Guardian article is only about the planned study but not the actual interview as it's older than the interview. This is a short summary but in German language: https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/covi...oberflaechen.2850.de.html?drn:news_id=1116563Oh thanks, I couldn't find any English-language sources. Streeck was also on national TV last night and talked about his research. For anyone who speaks German:
Most European countries chose to ignore it. The growth of this thread is an example of that - it only gained traction when the issue was widespread around us.For South Korea they had an outbreak from a **** and also the preparedness from past experiences help them to target this small area.
Simply saying UK and South Korea in a tweet isn't really helpful. I looked at her profile and while I would love more testing, Japan haven't done much and they aren't hiding a huge amount of deaths, if testing testing testing was the absolute key then Japan's health service would be overrun for all to see, it's not behind some iron curtain, east Asian countries and regions in general have low amounts. Europe as a whole has been hit very hard and testing testing testing Germany are on a slightly later path of thousands dead and are close to a thousand now with huge social and economic costs while South Korea has 154 dead.
Having seen the spread early on I don't think South Korea is applicable. Of course looking at every country is worth doing, more interesting is Singapore, Japan and Hong Kong but there's so many more factors.
There is an article about it published in the Guardian. Not much information and no mention of any findings yet.OK I think we need a source for this. Where did you get this from because it's potentially huge if true.
The first line of text on the still is "It gives zero fecks"Oh thanks, I couldn't find any English-language sources. Streeck was also on national TV last night and talked about his research. For anyone who speaks German:
I'll try to translate it tomorrow.
They're unsure as far as I know.How does warm weather affect this virus then? Is it a myth or is the flu pretty much non existent in the summer?
Are scientists still unsure?
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
So we need to charge our bodies with sunlight like Superman?They're unsure as far as I know.
Thought I heard some suggestion that sunlight will be more damaging to the virus than warmer temperatures in general.
If it's sunny, I command you to go outside naked and stand in the sun for 10 minutes.So we need to charge our bodies with sunlight like Superman?
Difficult to draw that comparison from the data, the geography and population density of cities/towns differs significantly.Apologies for the question but i want to understand if and how measures are showing results.
Out of ROI, NI, Wales, Scotland and England, which has most disciplined general public ?
And does the numbers (infections and deceased) match that discipline? Or is it having little effect?
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Sadly I think you're right.I bet it’s actually over 100 times that figure in reality.
Why sadly? If this was true then it’d mean the virus would be less lethal than seasonal flu and we could potentially go back to normal in a couple of months. It’s not very probable though. While there are certainly more cases than reported it won’t be by that much.Sadly I think you're right.
You're right at that but It's easier spread to people who won't survive it.Why sadly? If this was true then it’d mean the virus would be less lethal than seasonal flu and we could potentially go back to normal in a couple of months. It’s not very probable though. While there are certainly more cases than reported it won’t be by that much.