SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Foxbatt

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All the people here who are positive you all have my prayers and best wishes and hope and pray that you recover soon.
Good Luck.
 

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JPRouve

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UK getting a lot of criticism for its testing but what's the story with France and Japan?
In France the initial issue was that the amount of labs authorized to make these type of tests were limited and the local authorities didn't want to see potentially infected people mingle with the rest of the population in standard towns labs. Since the amount of labs with the proper authorisations has been increased and by the end of the week 20k tests should be done daily with the goal to have 50k daily tests by the end of the month. Basically the story is the french legendary administration at work.
 

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there are plenty of nutters
this guy derailed a train trying to crash it into a boat to uncover some alleged government conspiracy about CV19
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-01/man-charged-derailing-train-hospital-ship-mercy

the tin foil hat brigade will be out in full force in the USA and I believe given the spike in sales of guns and ammo they will be armed to the teeth as well - at the same time people facing bills of tens of thousands a day to be on a ventilator and gun shops being deemed essential whilst large scale religious gatherings being permitted in florida

Im certainly glad im not over there
Me too. Before it kicked there but was taking hold in Italy there were a lot of Yanks saying that it had spread in Europe because of socialism and public healthcare. Honestly. I was saying to them that the type of healthcare is irrelevant. But they wouldn’t have it, insisting that their private healthcare is more than enough to deal with it and is the best in the world. Fast forward two and half weeks and what do we see? New York is being overwhelmed and it will be soon making those horrrible decisions that Italy had to make about who gets a ventilator and who doesn’t.
 

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Stay strong Mr or is it Ms Hernandez? So many people you've never met are sending best wishes and positive energy your way and to the other heroes on the frontlines of this pandemic. It's a shame the developed world's governments took no notice of the warning that Virus X could emerge and cause unforeseen health emergencies in rich countries let alone less developed and poor ones.
I remember reading an article on this theme last year in the Telegraph. Fat lot of notice governments around the world took with of course the developed ones most to blame.
 

Brwned

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These UK numbers are looking pretty dire after the mild optimism of last week. Tracking to exceed Italy? Pretty sure Italy's death-toll had started to curve around now, the UK's seems to be taking a near vertical trajectory.
There's too much fluctuation to look purely at daily figures, but you could look at today's as the curve flattening. There were 563 new deaths reported yesterday, 569 today.

Italy had around 180 deaths per day on the 10th-12th March, 350 deaths per day on the 15th-17th March, 650 by the 20-22 March, 700 by the 25th to 27th March and around 800 by the 30th March to 1st April.

Spain had around 300 deaths per day on the 20th-22nd March, 700 deaths per day on the 25th-27th March and 850 deaths per day on the 30th March to 1st April.

The UK's still in the middle of those figures and what we know is that growth started to slow down a little after the figures the UK's reached. They've followed different trajectories and the daily figures fluctuate a lot so it's difficult to read into them too much beyond that.

The UK's daily jump from 180 deaths on the 30th March to 381 deaths on the 31st was mirrored by Italy back on the 14th (175) to 15th (368), but then it settled for a few days. Spain increased from 391 (22nd) to 539 (23rd) to 860 (24th) before stabilising. The UK saw two days of sustained increases like Spain, but it didn't accelerate again today. It might stabilise like Italy. The last two days' growth aren't very reliable predictors of the trend.

Here's how it looks since the 100th death recorded:

 
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sun_tzu

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Me too. Before it kicked there but was taking hold in Italy there were a lot of Yanks saying that it had spread in Europe because of socialism and public healthcare. Honestly. I was saying to them that the type of healthcare is irrelevant. But they wouldn’t have it, insisting that their private healthcare is more than enough to deal with it and is the best in the world. Fast forward two and half weeks and what do we see? New York is being overwhelmed and it will be soon making those horrrible decisions that Italy had to make about who gets a ventilator and who doesn’t.
with the added layer of who can pay for it i assume as i believe its around £25,000 a day to be on a ventilator - and even if you have insurance it often only covers a % of that leaving many with bills of £10,000+ and I think on average is it 12 days most spend on a ventilator if they need it - plus the other associated bills - Id guess $half a million is not out of the question per person - gonna be a lot of people filing for bankruptcy I think - and presumably a lot of hospitals chasing relatives of the dead for money... perhaps our socialist healthcare wont seem so bad then?
 

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with the added layer of who can pay for it i assume as i believe its around £25,000 a day to be on a ventilator - and even if you have insurance it often only covers a % of that leaving many with bills of £10,000+ and I think on average is it 12 days most spend on a ventilator if they need it - plus the other associated bills - Id guess $half a million is not out of the question per person - gonna be a lot of people filing for bankruptcy I think - and presumably a lot of hospitals chasing relatives of the dead for money... perhaps our socialist healthcare wont seem so bad then?
Couldn’t have put it better myself.
 
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It's going to be interesting to see Swedens numbers in the next few weeks..
They've only tested 1/5th of the amount of people that Norway have tested, and when you look at the amount of infected, deaths and people in serious condition it really doesn't paint a pretty picture.
I think Sweden will be the hardest hit Nordic country by far. I mean, it already is, but it's going to get worse. Adjusted for population size, they have more than 3 times as many deaths as Norway.

It's a damn shame. I reckon the state epidemiologist will get fired after this.
Couple of things here @Uncle Bob and @OleBoiii

Report coming out on Svt today that a large proportion of those who have died are from the Somali community. Living in apartments with several generations and theories that a Friday prayer at Mosque kicked it all off a few weeks back. Järla is the hardest hit area in all of Sweden, 90% in that area from an immigrant background.

It fecking awful :( Here's a report from a few days ago, https://www.garoweonline.com/en/new...of-coronavirus-in-sweden-than-any-other-group. Think Svt will be releasing their report later.

As for Tegnell getting fired, first off Stockholm's sportlov (sport school holdiday) was the very week it all kicked off in Italy, when sportlov started, there was just 229 cases in all of Italy, by the end of sportlov they had 1700 and it was going up like a NASA rocket.

As you guys both know, Swedes use that week to go skiing in the alps, we know for certain that Stockholm brought home shitloads of Covid-19 from that week, so who knows where Sweden, Denmark and Norway were on the 2nd March with regards to total numbers of infected. Could people really have predicted that Italy would explode like that? Maybe? But surely you see how unlucky that week and timing was for Stockholm?

Secondly, Tegnell isn't a one man show, the entire folkhälsomyndighet are making the calls, they actually brought out the big chief the other day due to comments like yours because he was flabbergasted that people who treating it like a small firm with one bloke calling the shots.

Will lots of people die in Sweden, yes, but they will in Denmark too by the end of this (and Germany, Belgium Holland etc etc etc etc), no question. Norway, might just have done enough early enough to chase it down, but time will tell, I'm extremely interested to see what happens there after lockdown and the Norwegian plan. Fingers crossed. People are still looking so short term at this and the numbers, it'll likely be going for months and months.
 
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TheGame

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561 deaths increase from yesterday in UK.

The number of deaths from coronavirus have now been broken down across the UK.

In England, the figure has reached 2,698, up by 561 from yesterday.

NHS England said the patients were aged between 22 and 100, with 44 of those 561 - who were aged between 25 and 100 - having no known underlying health conditions.

In Scotland, 126 patients have now died - up by 50 from yesterday.

In Wales, the total number of deaths is now 117 - a rise of 19.

And in Northern Ireland, a further six people have died - bringing the total to 36
 

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Papers across the spectrum absolutely hammering the government today and not before time.

Sick of hearing what a "great job they're doing".
Yep. I'm amazed it's taken this long for the media as one to realise how important testing is. Criminal mass testing wasn't ready when we went into lockdown particuarly as Hancock actually said in the commons in mid January the U.K were ready with plenty of testing equipment!

Real insult very small % of NHS workers have been tested so far, nevermind general population.
 

sun_tzu

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Why does Africa look relatively unaffected - you would have thought with inter generational living and some quite crowded conditions in cities that it would take hold quite quickly there?
Just behind the infection curve in timeline or mass under reporting (possibly due to lack of testing?) - or is there another reason (average age / demographic being lower?)
 
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Why does Africa look relatively unaffected - you would have thought with inter generational living and some quite crowded conditions in cities that it would take hold quite quickly there?
Just behind the infection curve in timeline or mass under reporting (possibly due to lack of testing?) - or is there another reason (average age / demographic being lower?)
Less travel to/from I'd imagine.
 

Sweet Square

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Yep. I'm amazed it's taken this long for the media as one to realise how important testing is. Criminal mass testing wasn't ready when we went into lockdown particuarly as Hancock actually said in the commons in mid January the U.K were ready with plenty of testing equipment!

Real insult very small % of NHS workers have been tested so far, nevermind general population.

Also kind of an amazing way to hide from taking some of the blame as well.
 

bonothom

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Nothing wrong with some positivity. The scientific experts in here would have you believe this is the apocalypse.
Yep there's an article on the BBC that also gives a different view of things.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-51979654

"Many people who die of Covid [the disease caused by coronavirus] would have died anyway within a short period," he says.

Knowing exactly how many is impossible to tell at this stage.

Prof Neil Ferguson, the lead modeller at Imperial College London, has suggested it could be up to two-thirds."
 

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I would certainly wear a mask if I could actually get hold of a supply.
But try as I might, it is close to impossible in England.
Well, here in Japan the Prime Minister Mr Abe has said his goverment will send two cloth masks to every household...........that's the sum-total of the Japanese Governments' new announcement of ways to help Japanese citizens, not sure about foreign residents as apparently we don't count most of the time despite being taxpayers and believe me the taxes here are quite sizeable on modest incomes, with none of the benefits you get in a relatively high taxing country.

I do get the right to pay the Japanese national health insurance each month which is higher than my private health insurance back home. I've never used it here, never had to, but if I ever have to go to hospital here I am expected to bring everything including utensils, bedding, etc. Plus pay more for anything done to me.
I am not eligible to apply for any unemployment benefits despite paying sizeable taxes, there is no financial relief available if I lose work during this pandemic. Nothing.

Australia is fast tracking welfare payments for those who have lost their jobs or been downsized plus economic stimulus payments for the rest. Not the neo fascists running Japan - not joking here, most of the govt members plus the so called 'independent' female Governor of Tokyo Yurika Koike are members of a right wing group called Nippon Kaigi. It's like a govt within the government. It'd be like the present Tory Govt including Boris Johnson being members of a group similar to the BNP.

The Japanese Govt blew our money and future monies on the Olympic Games. In addition to two cloth masks, remembering WHO has made statements discouraging their use, they talked about giving fish and beef vouchers worth around 12,000 yen or around 120 dollars Oz to each household. No financial relief for those who lost their jobs or are losing work as we write. No payments - only to the usual corporations they favour. Probably foreign residents not tied to Japanese partners officially will miss out on even the masks.

During the financial crisis around 10 years ago or so, a lot of foreigners didn't receive one yen in the stimulus payment of yes, about 12,000 yen supposedly to every household, unless they were married to a Japanese partner. Apparently non-married to a Japanese foreigners exist when they are hit up for taxes but not when something could be received from them.
 
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Pogue Mahone

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Couple of things here @Uncle Bob and @OleBoiii

Report coming out on Svt today that a large proportion of those who have died are from the Somali community. Living in apartments with several generations and theories that a Friday prayer at Mosque kicked it all off a few weeks back. Järla is the hardest hit area in all of Sweden, 90% in that area from an immigrant background.

It fecking awful :( Here's a report from a few days ago, https://www.garoweonline.com/en/new...of-coronavirus-in-sweden-than-any-other-group. Think Svt will be releasing their report later.

As for Tegnell getting fired, first off Stockholm's sportlov (sport school holdiday) was the very week it all kicked off in Italy, when sportlov started, there was just 229 cases in all of Italy, by the end of sportlov they had 1700 and it was going up like a NASA rocket.

As you guys both know, Swedes use that week to go skiing in the alps, we know for certain that Stockholm brought home shitloads of Covid-19 from that week, so who knows where Sweden, Denmark and Norway were on the 2nd March with regards to total numbers of infected. Could people really have predicted that Italy would explode like that? Maybe? But surely you see how unlucky that week and timing was for Stockholm?

Secondly, Tegnell isn't a one man show, the entire folkhälsomyndighet are making the calls, they actually brought out the big chief the other day due to comments like yours because he was flabbergasted that people who treating it like a small firm with one bloke calling the shots.

Will lots of people die in Sweden, yes, but they will in Denmark too by the end of this (and Germany, Belgium Holland etc etc etc etc), no question. Norway, might just have done enough early enough to chase it down, but time will tell, I'm extremely interested to see what happens there after lockdown and the Norwegian plan. Fingers crossed. People are still looking so short term at this and the numbers, it'll likely be going for months and months.
No more unlucky than pretty much every other European country. Almost all of them had school half-term that week and thousands upon thousands of people headed to the Alps. It was people returning from ski trips in the Alps that seeded most of Europe. Certainly that’s what happened in the Uk/Ireland. If anything, Sweden may have been slightly less affected as you don’t have to leave Sweden to go on a ski holiday (I think?) unlike countries that are further south/less mountainous.
 
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No more unlucky than pretty much every other European country. Almost all of them had school half-term that week and thousands upon thousands of people headed to the Alps. It was returning ski trips from the Alps that seeded most of Europe. Certainly that’s what happened in the Uk/Ireland. If anything, Sweden may have been slightly less affected as you don’t have to leave Sweden to go on a ski holiday (I think?) unlike countries that are further south/less mountainous.
Well you don't have to leave Sweden Pogue but we're big skiers here, compared to Ireland it's dwarfed obviously. It's not even called half term here, it's called "Sport Semester" as it supposed to be a week to take the kids doing winter sports.

200 000 Swedens travel to the alps every winter @Pogue Mahone (with the majority being in those February school holidays).

You're bang on that ski trips kicked it all off for all of Europe.
 
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Dr. Dwayne

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ryansgirl

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No more unlucky than pretty much every other European country. Almost all of them had school half-term that week and thousands upon thousands of people headed to the Alps. It was people returning from ski trips in the Alps that seeded most of Europe. Certainly that’s what happened in the Uk/Ireland. If anything, Sweden may have been slightly less affected as you don’t have to leave Sweden to go on a ski holiday (I think?) unlike countries that are further south/less mountainous.
Not being snippy here but immigrant communities such as the Somalis in Sweden may be lucky to have the welfare they get from a democratic socialist state like Sweden but they can hardly be compared to privileged European communities who go skiing as a matter of course. Many minorities in Sweden are refugees and it probably would be correct to assume that they might have been left out of the loop to some extent regarding the virus.

I'm not saying the Swedish authorities etc didn't give information but western countries with immigrant populations especially refugee ones need to do better in giving early and effective information in times like this.
 
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I'm not saying the Swedish authorities etc didn't give information but western countries with immigrant populations especially refugee ones need to do better in giving early and effective information in times like this.
It's so tricky. The Swedish authorities now are having to defend themselves that they gave out information in Somali weeks back etc, but did it hit home? Did it reach the right people?
 

sun_tzu

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It's so tricky. The Swedish authorities now are having to defend themselves that they gave out information in Somali weeks back etc, but did it hit home? Did it reach the right people?
even if it did you cant force people to obay it - we had a pub raided in england the other day because people were choosing to ignore all the advice for sure I dont think you can argue the government has not got the message over that pubs should be closed but people choose to ignore it
 

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Sweden hasn't been more unlucky when it comes to the ski trips. Many Norwegians came back from Italy and Austria with the corona virus. Those are very popular destinations in the winter for upper/upper middleclass people.

As for the problem of the virus spreading faster among immigrants: the same is true for Oslo right now :(
 

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It's so tricky. The Swedish authorities now are having to defend themselves that they gave out information in Somali weeks back etc, but did it hit home? Did it reach the right people?
I'm sure they did but just like other developed countries with refugees they need to co-ordinate better with community groups, identify leaders who can be the bridge in communicating etc.

About 15 years ago Australia started to take in more African refugees and some of those families especially ones with no Dad around because he had been killed or was stuck home unable to come to Australia, had struggles with knowing how to use Australian homes' equipment let alone how to participate in Aussie community life. This mostly happened in outer suburbs so they felt even more isolated. Buddy systems and community networks were set up to assist and it got better.
 

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@Regulus Arcturus Black

Sweden hasn't been more unlucky when it comes to the ski trips. Many Norwegians came back from Italy and Austria with the corona virus. Those are very popular destinations in the winter for upper/upper middleclass people.

As for the problem of the virus spreading faster among immigrants: the same is true for Oslo right now :(
It's so tricky. The Swedish authorities now are having to defend themselves that they gave out information in Somali weeks back etc, but did it hit home? Did it reach the right people?
Seconding what OleBoiii says. People in Norway are moneyed, and we certainly had a feck-ton of people bringing it home from skiing holidays.

The point about having information reach the (refugee) immigrant communities is deffo a big one. They're more vulnerable as they house more of the elder generation, and they also often have less of an understanding of germ theory than your average European. In addition they don't have the level of trust of authority and government that we do in Norway, and so they won't necessarily take it to heart. We've started printing up info in their own languages, in addition to designating persons from that culture to go around in the neighbourhoods and talking directly to them. Hopefully these measures will have an impact.
 
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@Regulus Arcturus Black

Sweden hasn't been more unlucky when it comes to the ski trips. Many Norwegians came back from Italy and Austria with the corona virus. Those are very popular destinations in the winter for upper/upper middleclass people.
Not Sweden, I mean Stockholm in particular, Stockholm's half term was the week it went from "no problem" to "holy feck" in Italy. This for you too @Eriku as it was the point I was trying to make.

Oslo for example had their winter semester the week earlier, by the end of that week Italy had just 157 cases of Covid-19. By the end of Stockholm's winter week that had increased more than 10-fold to 1701.

So yes, definitely unlucky.

As I say, unless all European countries can say for certain how many cases of the virus they had on 1st March, it's almost impossible to compare anything at this point. This isn't about deaths & cases now, it'll be about deaths in 8 months.

I think Norway have done a cracking job for what it's worth and have a great chance of maybe keeping a hold of the situation and going to trace level. I don't think Sweden or Denmark have a chance and haven't since the start. Same goes for the UK, Ireland, Holland, Belgium etc etc. I hope everyone learns their lessons next time and locks out a country with an outbreak until they are certain it's under control.
 
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