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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .

Penna

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What a mess. England should have a second referendum as it's clear things were not as simple as they originaly thought.
I don't reckon many of the Leave voters care about the complexities. I'm sure some will have changed their minds, but I'd bet that the majority see it as a matter of principle now. They're not interested in the nuances, just the end result.
 

Rolandofgilead

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I’ve been at football this afternoon do not kept up to date but I see Boris is saying that he won’t be asking for an extension which, from what I can tell would be breaking the law?
 

T00lsh3d

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Still trying to kick the can down the road to nowhere.
That “kick the can down the road”, is very much a Boris/Brexiteers slogan in the realm of “get brexit done” etc etc
I’m surprised you use it, it doesn’t sit well with me
 

jackal&hyde

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Just england?... Hummm not sure that would solve much
The UK i meant, sorry.
I don't reckon many of the Leave voters care about the complexities. I'm sure some will have changed their minds, but I'd bet that the majority see it as a matter of principle now. They're not interested in the nuances, just the end result.
Maybe so. I view it as something that will have an impact for many, many years and with more information known a second referendum would be fair imo; if i was British that's what i'd want.
 

Paul the Wolf

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That “kick the can down the road”, is very much a Boris/Brexiteers slogan in the realm of “get brexit done” etc etc
I’m surprised you use it, it doesn’t sit well with me
Originally it was aimed at Theresa May a year or two back - now Johnson has used it.
But at some point parliament has got to decide on something.
 

Volumiza

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What a mess. England should have a second referendum as it's clear things were not as simple as they originaly thought.
And that will solve what? Seriously? It will just create yet more mess. I voted remain but we can’t just have non stop referendums. We have to move on somehow.

Leave win again - will remainers stop their blocking and bleating?

Remain win - does it then become a best of 3? Or do we automatically think remains win is better than leaves?
 

Fingeredmouse

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And that will solve what? Seriously? It will just create yet more mess. I voted remain but we can’t just have non stop referendums. We have to move on somehow.

Leave win again - will remainers stop their blocking and bleating?

Remain win - does it then become a best of 3? Or do we automatically think remains win is better than leaves?
No, you don't keep having referendums. It's not a pool tournament so best of 3 doesn't really apply.

You have a last one, given that people now have some idea of what they're actually voting for and never, ever have such a massive decision taken on a critically important matter based on a vague and ill defined political stunt ever again.
 

Volumiza

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No, you don't keep having referendums. It's not a pool tournament so best of 3 doesn't really apply.

You have a last one, given that people now have some idea of what they're actually voting for and never, ever have such a massive decision taken on a critically important matter based on a vague and ill defined political stunt ever again.
No doubt the result would be close and what? You think it will end this madness? Seriously? No way.
 

Fingeredmouse

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No doubt the result would be close and what? You think it will end this madness? Seriously? No way.
No it won't. The madness will not end and it predates Brexit which was a lightning rod. But it will, if designed correctly, decide this current deadlock.
 

MadMike

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I don't reckon many of the Leave voters care about the complexities. I'm sure some will have changed their minds, but I'd bet that the majority see it as a matter of principle now. They're not interested in the nuances, just the end result.
Just gerronwivit. Get it done.
 

Volumiza

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No it won't. The madness will not end and it predates Brexit which was a lightning rod. But it will, if designed correctly, decide this current deadlock.
And how will it be designed correctly when both sides have withdrawn to their no deal / no Brexit trenches. Literally no one is trying to come to a respectable position and find a way to get it done.
 

MadMike

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After some reflection, I think today's vote on the Letwin Amendment changes nothing. Johnson, Bercow or someone else will send a letter to the EU either today or on Monday.

The EU will just sit on it. People don't understand the EU very well if they think they'll undermine the deal they just signed up to by offering an extension. They also gain nothing by interfering in domestic politics against Johnson, who's likely to be the leader of the biggest party and next PM after an election. The noises coming out of Brussels have always been that if a UK Govt signs up to a deal that respects their red lines they'll do what they can to help them sell it domestically. They want to focus minds in Westminster to vote for the deal the same as Johnson.

So what will happen is they will say they don't feel they have to respond to this request until after the Parliament has voted on the deal, because if it gets signed the extension is pointless. Meanwhile Macron will play the bad cop to Merkel's good cop, saying he might veto the extension as he's had enough etc. etc. simply to "focus minds" on Westminster to vote for the deal. But ultimately if the deal does get rejected, they will grant the extension (as they don't want no deal) and let us go to elections.

So like I said, I think it changes nothing.
 

T00lsh3d

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After some reflection, I think today's vote on the Letwin Amendment changes nothing. Johnson, Bercow or someone else will send a letter to the EU either today or on Monday.

The EU will just sit on it. People don't understand the EU very well if they think they'll undermine the deal they just signed up to by offering an extension. They also gain nothing by interfering in domestic politics against Johnson, who's likely to be the leader of the biggest party and next PM after an election. The noises coming out of Brussels have always been that if a UK Govt signs up to a deal that respects their red lines they'll do what they can to help them sell it domestically. They want to focus minds in Westminster to vote for the deal the same as Johnson.

So what will happen is they will say they don't feel they have to respond to this request until after the Parliament has voted on the deal, because if it gets signed the extension is pointless. Meanwhile Macron will play the bad cop to Merkel's good cop, saying he might veto the extension as he's had enough etc. etc. simply to "focus minds" on Westminster to vote for the deal. But ultimately if the deal does get rejected, they will grant the extension (as they don't want no deal) and let us go to elections.

So like I said, I think it changes nothing.
I have always thought that the EU would pursue any agenda that they thought would result in a 2nd ref
 

Fingeredmouse

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And how will it be designed correctly when both sides have withdrawn to their no deal / no Brexit trenches. Literally no one is trying to come to a respectable position and find a way to get it done.
You're right. Let's just give up and succumb to the Johnson and Mogg "respectable" position. The vote has happened. No option now but plunge off a cliff as Ian Duncan Smith laughs maniacally.
In the same way the Benn act got through. Cross party Parliamentary consensus protecting the country from the extremes of the House.
 

madzo2007

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Just seen on Sky News there that Reuters News Agency via EU Official are saying that the Extension Letter will be sent today

And...

 

sun_tzu

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Just seen on Sky News there that Reuters News Agency via EU Official are saying that the Extension Letter will be sent today

And...

I think he had no political future if he didn't
He can moan about it (and he will)... He can call it the surrender act and he will call those who voted for it traitors (and he will)
But ultimately there is going to be a general election and he can use this as ammunition for his parliament Vs the people narrative.

If he didn't send the letter he ran the risk of being impeached / arrested and potentially banned from standing as an MP

So logically if he wants power it's his only move
 

Fingeredmouse

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It may well not be....it’s an assumption that that’s the EU’s preferred result
I assume the EU would rather we stayed too on the premise that us leaving has no upside, other than being rid of an irritant in meetings. But maybe they're just sick of it all by now.
 

JPRouve

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It may well not be....it’s an assumption that that’s the EU’s preferred result
The EU doesn't care about a second referendum, they only care about a definitive answer.
 

sun_tzu

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The EU doesn't care about a second referendum, they only care about a definitive answer.
I suspect the idea of us coming back in a decade or so and admitting we made a mistake and that we would very much like to rejoin accepting the Euro and having no veto is pretty attractive to the EU... A damn lot more attractive than us having another close referendum now And them having a disruptive veto wielding divided country represented by the likes of farrage
 

JPRouve

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I suspect the idea of us coming back in a decade or so and admitting we made a mistake and that we would very much like to rejoin accepting the Euro and having no veto is pretty attractive to the EU... A damn lot more attractive than us having another close referendum now And them having a disruptive veto wielding divided country represented by the likes of farrage
Exactly, a close referendum won't fix the underlying issue and there would be a genuine risk that one of the next general elections lead to a new brexit campaign. Ideally you leave with a deal that mitigates the downsides of being out of an union and maybe in a decade or two you comeback.
 

MadMike

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I assume the EU would rather we stayed too on the premise that us leaving has no upside, other than being rid of an irritant in meetings. But maybe they're just sick of it all by now.
The EU is pursuing an ever closer integration for which the UK is often a kind of roadblock. They would prefer the UK in the EU, for sure, but as a willing and active participant. Not as an intransigent member. Given the amount of euroscepticism in the country and the number of hard eurosceptic MPs we put out (nearly half of our MPs are brexiteers) they prefer us to be in the trading block but not in the EU, like Norway is.

Secondly, there's very little correlation between the EU offering an extension before the vote, and a 2nd referendum. A second referendum requires a willing administration and there's little prospect of that happening under a Tory Govt. And they will still be the biggest party after an election if all polls are to be believed. So undermining them, has higher risk than potential benefit.
 
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